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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #692
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Can you rotate that to show Ireland?


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    #693
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,184 ✭✭✭pad199207


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    Some of them ecm ensembles are very tasty for me down here in Wexford

    I’m worried about my mobile home down there. Almost lost it in Storm Christine 2014 due to storm surge and beach erosion!


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    #694
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Only caught to the possibility,of this storm today, and have to say I can't get all that excited about it at this stage. Latest ECM for example shows nothing more than a standard Autumn gale in all fairness, but I am open to being pleasantly surprised come the time.

    New Moon



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    #695
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I’m worried about my mobile home down there. Almost lost it in Storm Christine 2014 due to storm surge and beach erosion!

    Which caravan park is it in?


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    #696
    luimneachboy
    Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭luimneachboy


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    It's better for the east but it could swing back east just as easy. It's horrible for the western half of the country. It's forecast to be strong Category 1 strength storm.

    Still time to go yet.

    Thanks. I'm West limerick/north Kerry and 2014 was horrendous here. Surely won't b that bad again?


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    #697
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I’m worried about my mobile home down there. Almost lost it in Storm Christine 2014 due to storm surge and beach erosion!

    Blackwater?


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    #698
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,184 ✭✭✭pad199207


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    Blackwater?


    Down near Kilmore Quay


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    #699
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,899 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    kingshankly wrote: »
    Hopefully this isn’t as bad as it’s looking I’m driving the first train out Tuesday morning horrible feeling not knowing what is around the corner
    First train out of where ? Cork ?


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    #700
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    luimneachboy wrote: »
    Thanks. I'm West limerick/north Kerry and 2014 was horrendous here. Surely won't b that bad again?

    It's impossible to go in to detail at that level yet. I think it will be bad though.


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    #701
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Really bad delivery by Siobhan Ryan.

    Just watched the RTE 9;30 pm weather forecast and thought they had discovered a new hurricane, by the name of ExOphelia!

    Very weird hearing Siobhan Ryan talking about ex,ophelia as if it were something we should all know about, and it did ring a bell, but I couldn't put my finger on it, then I flicked over to the BBC and heard about Ex Hurricane "Ophelia" Ah ha I thought, and the penny dropped.....

    The hurricane is/was called Ophelia, but now its an Ex Hurricane.

    Listen up RTE/Met Eireann & sort out Ms Ryans delivery.


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    #702
    my3cents
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,764 ✭✭✭my3cents


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I’m worried about my mobile home down there. Almost lost it in Storm Christine 2014 due to storm surge and beach erosion!
    2014 combined a very high tide with a storm. This time the storm is hitting during a period of much lower high tides so there is some hope.


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    #703
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    It's better for the east but it could swing back east just as easy. It's horrible for the western half of the country. It's forecast to be strong Category 1 strength storm.

    Still time to go yet.

    Only looks to be about storm force 10, maybe borderline 11 on the south coast at the moment. Definitely not strong cat 1 hurricane when it makes landfall


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    #704
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    LordSutch wrote: »

    The hurricane is/was called Ophelia, but now its an Ex Hurricane.
    y.

    Just to be clear so there is no confusion. Ophelia remains a Category 2 hurricane and will remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.


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    #705
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Arpege is on steroids. This is the forecast max recorded gusts through Tuesday morning. Max gust in this chart is 111 knots in the far south of the picture, occuring early on Monday afternoon.

    For the record, the GFS has the max at 88 knots.

    430534.jpg


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    #706
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Only looks to be about storm force 10, maybe borderline 11 on the south coast at the moment. Definitely not strong cat 1 hurricane when it makes landfall

    It is forecast to be a Category 1 strength post-tropical storm but it will not lose all of it's tropical characteristics either before landfall.


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    #707
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    It is forecast to be a Category 1 strength post-tropical storm but it will not lose all of it's tropical characteristics either before landfall.

    I think, like me, he read what you said as " a strong Category 1 storm" as opposed to "a strong, Category 1 storm". ;)


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    #708
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Notable enough shift east of center for GFS 18z run out to 60 hrs.


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    #709
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Just to be clear so there is no confusion. Ophelia remains a Category 2 hurricane and will remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.

    Well there certainly is confusion if its called ExOphelia.

    As I said previously, its either a hurricane called Opehilia, or its a Ex hurricane, called Ophelia, but it is not ExOphelia as Ms Ryan calls it..


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    #710
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS upgrading potential somewhat.


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    #711
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,170 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Just to be clear so there is no confusion. Ophelia remains a Category 2 hurricane and will remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.

    The forecast seems to imply that it's currently ex-ophelia, really quite poor.


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    #712
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM present track, subject to change.

    WiApPfC.png

    E6vLtsQ.png

    Z3ZIfRK.png

    K5C3A7s.png

    jJ1oUCT.png


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    #713
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Lads what is expected at the minute for north leinster with this?


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    #714
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,899 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    GFS upgrading potential somewhat.
    Isn't it downgrading we are hoping for ?


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    #715
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    GFS nudges East enough to call it a significant upgrade.
    Simply put if the models follow suit in the morning a very quick red alert will be issued.
    One other point for Cork
    A southeast wind is dire as it backs up the tide. Corks worst flooding comes from a southeast wind.
    Storm surge, southeast storm force wind = ??


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    #716
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,708 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Isn't it downgrading we are hoping for ?

    I don't mean it like that;)


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    #717
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We're all secretly hoping for upgrades knowing we'll regret it later.

    Its like going to a wedding. The better the wedding the more pain and incapacity you experience the following day


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    #718
    luimneachboy
    Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭luimneachboy


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    ECM present track, subject to change.

    WiApPfC.png

    E6vLtsQ.png

    Z3ZIfRK.png

    K5C3A7s.png




    jJ1oUCT.png


    In ur opinion what wud this mean for west limerick?


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    #719
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Notable enough shift east of center for GFS 18z run out to 60 hrs.

    Yea a big shift E on this run, bringing the strongest winds along the S, SE and E.

    A bit of a downgrade in wind speeds but sill very strong along the coasts and high ground , plenty more twists and turns.


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    #720
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,899 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Isn't it downgrading we are hoping for ?

    I don't mean it like that;)
    Right.


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    #721
    HighLine
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Yea a big shift E on this run, bringing the strongest winds along the S, SE and E.

    A bit of a downgrade in wind speeds but sill very strong along the coasts and high ground , plenty more twists and turns.

    The NHC 5pm advisory looks like it shifted north-west?

    204751_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


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