Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Coles

yannakis wrote: »

..wind is off the chart with max set at (default) 50 Knots!!

Set it to 70 knots on the top right drop down menu.

Gaoth Laidir

This from Met Éireann's Twitter

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

Meteorite58

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This from Met Éireann's Twitter

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

Hurricane force right across the south coast? Definite upgrade if thats the case, stronger than any of the models on meteociel are showing. Up to strong gale force even in the midlands

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919864199009984513

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919861025352093696

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919854359403552768

star gazer

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919864152725884931
Fastnet 78 knots wind, gusting 103 knots

Panrich

Fastnet Lighthouse‏ @FastnetLHouse 1m1 minute ago
More
Avg Wind:78kts, Gust:103kts, Wind Dir:179 °(S), Gust Dir:181 °(S) at 16/10/2017 10:50:00

Hammer Archer

Winds at Fastnet still increasing. 78kts (144km/h) gusting to 103kts (190km/h).

magicbastarder

that's a national record, yeah?

Indestructable

star gazer wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919864152725884931
Fastnet 78 knots wind, gusting 103 knots

Whats 103 in km? Is it 190??

DOCARCH

magicbastarder wrote: »

that's a national record, yeah?

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

server down

That’s 190 kmph

server down

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

You sure? Obviously it’s going to be windier there but nearly 200 km/h is pretty strong.

George Sunsnow

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not for a lighthouse high up on an exposed rock!

6.5km’s out to sea too

DOCARCH

server down wrote: »

You sure? Obviously it’s going to be windier there but nearly 200 km/h is pretty strong.

Yes. That will not appear in any official data for this or any other storm, same as for wind recorded on the Kinsale Gas Platform, or, wind recorded on mountain tops (on communication masts). Recording equipment at these locations would not be at standard recording height (10m over ground level).

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/919866243930316802

iLikeWaffles

Is there any live or the 15 minute updated feed from METEOSAT-8?

Gaoth Laidir

12.3 metre wave now reported at Kinsale platform.

DOCARCH

Gusting 67kn at Cork Airport.

Gaoth Laidir

06Z Hirlam much the same as the 00Z

pad199207

Gusting 51kts wexford harbour

mhiggy09

Can I ask where or what website are yous getting the info of wind speed and gusts from. Id like to take a look.

JCX BXC

DOCARCH wrote: »

Gusting 67kn at Cork Airport.

That was at 10:30, gusting 63kts at 11am.

kilkenny31

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

DOCARCH

JCX BXC wrote: »

That was at 10:30

Yes...

Meteorite58

Here we go!

Gusting 80 km/h near Tralee

10 min avg 43 km/h

Bar 976.6 hPa Falling Rapidly

DOCARCH

kilkenny31 wrote: »

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

Very hard to forecast.

Oneiric 3

kilkenny31 wrote: »

If there is a sting jet. What does it entail and what part of the country would it hit?

Sting jets usually occur on the S/SW side of storm lows if there is a significant injection of dry air being drawn in. Don' have access to satellite imagry but going by forecast track of low, western/NW counties would be most at risk if a SJ was to occur, but low chance of it happening to be honest.

DOCARCH

Gusting 71kn at 1100 at Roches Point....131kmh.

Oneiric 3

From Met Eireann. Latest sat view. Looks very 'hybrid'.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Sting jets usually occur on the S/SW side of storm lows if there is a significant injection of dry air being drawn in. Don' have access to satellite imagry but going by forecast track of low, western/NW counties would be most at risk if a SJ was to occur, but low chance of it happening to be honest.

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

Donegal Storm

71kts max at 11am, still nothing more than a typical storm. Should peak in the next couple of hours on the south coast.

No reports from Sherkin..

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

I'm no expert Nacho, but I think you would the need the storm centre to interact with some deep dry, polar air, which I don't think is happening with this one at the moment (yet at least). I am open to being corrected on this.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm no expert Nacho, but I think you would the need the storm centre to interact with some deep dry, polar air, which I don't think is happening with this one at the moment (yet at least). I am open to being corrected on this.

Ah ok. Thanks for the explanation Oneiric 3:)

Comhrá

nacho libre wrote: »

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

Gaoth Laidir

I think there is some type of sting jet occuring now.

This satellite image shows cloud top heights in colours. The bright blue spiral to the south is around 8 km height, but we can see the colour change to orange as it spirals around the east and north of the storm. By the time it reaches the southern centre of it it's down to orange (1000 m), so in effect the high cloud has spiralled downwards into the centre, dissipating the cloud as it does so.

It is best seen in this animation (live animation, so will change with time).

Click the image for the hi res version.

Oscar Bravo

star gazer

Robxxx7

Mid Kerry
from my weather station

star gazer

star gazer wrote: »

Great image. I know its extratropical now, but it seems to resemble those radar images from Miami etc you see when a hurricane eye and the surrounding bands move through.

crushproof

Fastnet Lighthouse‏ [ltr]@FastnetLHouse[/ltr]  5m5 minutes ago
More

Avg Wind:82kts, Gust:101kts, Wind Dir:220 °(SW), Gust Dir:222 °(SW) at 16/10/2017 11:50:00

Cantona's Collars

That sting jet that Gaoth Laidir spoke of looks to be going to impact the SE of the country.
Literally in the last 5 minutes,winds have increased enormously in the SE.

Oneiric 3

WV at 9z

M.T. Cranium

K1 buoy had maximum 3h pressure rise of 25 mb after passage of low, an extreme value indeed.

May indicate potential for stronger gusts after low passes on west coast, Tralee to Galway Bay, next 3-4 hours.

Clare generally at risk of damaging gusts from WSW during this phase (1400h).

JCX BXC

Cork airport, no gust but mean speed for 43kts in the 12pm METAR

Oneiric 3

Wider perspective as of 10z. Looks almost Darwinian:

patneve2

Storm has a well-defined eye now as per latest sat

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

gozunda

Barometer reading 967 hpa and dropping

Sustained winds averaging 55 km/ h

East Limerick / cork border

JCX BXC

Bad gusts in West Clare now.

12pm TAF issued, Dublin now expecting a max gust of 57kts (Was 55), Cork now expecting 74kts (Was 70), Knock expecting 58kts (was 60).

highdef

Looks like a clear has developed in the eye???