Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

snusie

JCX BXC wrote: »

Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

I'm assuming we'll get something similar to the '98 St Stephen's day storm here? Or are we looking at something worse?

Meteorite58

Todays Sat pic around the middle of the day


https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-10-12&z=3&v=-98.25616554829386,4.11210474493673,36.743834451706135,70.83866724493673

Meteorite58

The next two probably based on the GFS model.

4068ac1elhodqr

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

Rougies

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

That's based on the GFS model which has it further west than most other models. ECM and UKMO are showing a direct hit on Ireland with much more widespread effects.

nagdefy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

After the 1998 storm, Stephen's Day showers turned wintry in the north and there was some snow. But deffo 2000 had in the northern half of the country.

My main memory of the Christmas Eve 1997 southern Ireland, mostly, storm was trying to get a mare in out of a field at home who lost the plot. She kicked me when i was getting her into a stable and i got walloped off a concrete yard and was concussed. The weather was too bad for A&E so i came too a few hours later and missed most of the storm!

Doltanian

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

my3cents

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

I slept through all of the 87 Hurricane in the south of the UK so hope I can sleep through this one. The big bump in my dream in the middle of the night was a 120ft tall Lime tree just missing the house.

BorneTobyWilde

It could be a killer.

nagdefy

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

The one thing that keeps entering my mind is the date will be 16 October. The UK storm, which felled Seven Oaks etc, was on the night of the 15/16 October 1987. I've found with weather phenomena history can have a strange habit of repeating itself..

Itssoeasy

MidMan25 wrote: »

I'm living in the area of highest winds a few miles from the coast :eek:

My parents have a mobile home in East Cork. I'm not liking those bright colours in that area.

nagdefy

A very good documentary on the October 1987 UK storm.

dacogawa

RTE Weather for Monday:

Potential high impact, keep up to date with forecasts. Sensible warning.

squarecircles

Weather News

Met.ie

Update on Ophelia
12 October 2017
There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

aisling86

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

MJohnston

We really need a better name for these kinds of storms than 'severe gales', we should borrow Orkan.

Doltanian

RTE don't want to worry people and rightly so and it won't be until Saturday until we get a clearer picture and it might swing out into the Atlantic towards Iceland. Remember Ireland is a tiny country and as we saw with Hurricane Irma it changed course slightly as it closed in of Florida, that small change of direction would be enough to miss our small island. If it strikes straight on then Kerry and Cork will get an awful battering and it will nearly certainly take lives.

I'm taking no chances and everything likely to become a projectile will be secured tomorrow by me, I lost a farm shed in Storm Darwin back in early 2014 which cost €15,000 to replace.

nagdefy

aisling86 wrote: »

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

I'd imagine so Aisling. I remember for storm Darwin in Feb 2014 there was a lot of criticism that schools weren't closed in the initial red area warning zones of Cork and Kerry. Of course as that morning and afternoon progressed a much larger area of the country was in a red warning area.

Cork and Kerry were given a level 3 warning on the 9.30 met tv broadcast the evening before.

TheMilkyPirate

Cat-2 hurricane now

pad199207

As of the 5pm advisory Ophelia is now upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

Latest GFS rolling out at 10.30. Interesting to see if it falls into line with the other models.

antodeco

If that's the case, let's hope it misses.

Itssoeasy

Doltanian wrote: »

RTE don't want to worry people and rightly so and it won't be until Saturday until we get a clearer picture and it might swing out into the Atlantic towards Iceland. Remember Ireland is a tiny country and as we saw with Hurricane Irma it changed course slightly as it closed in of Florida, that small change of direction would be enough to miss our small island. If it strikes straight on then Kerry and Cork will get an awful battering and it will nearly certainly take lives.

I'm taking no chances and everything likely to become a projectile will be secured tomorrow by me, I lost a farm shed in Storm Darwin back in early 2014 which cost €15,000 to replace.

oh that sounds like a bit of painful open bank account surgery. My parents are away for the weekend so I might pay a visit to my grandmothers as she has a huge garden and some sheds just asking to turn into projectiles.

TheMilkyPirate

As long as it passed with no casualties I'd love to get a direct hit off this, Be some experience down in hook head

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

As of the 5pm advisory Ophelia is now upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

NHC giving it an easterly shift and a substantial upgrade. Shows it as a Hurricane over land in Ireland.

MJohnston

Deleted User wrote: »

Latest GFS rolling out at 10.30. Interesting to see if it falls into line with the other models.

I noted that the GFS was considered far inferior to the ECM for predicting tracks of the various hurricanes that hit the US coasts this season, I wonder does that same differential exist for storms on this side of the Atlantic

ninebeanrows

The timing of this is incredible !

km79

Its going to be downgraded right .......

mirrorwall14

I think this is officially the first time I went ‘****, maybe a little downgrade would be no harm’....

star gazer

LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Increased intensity in NHC advisory 15 Category 2
Track is a little back East into Ireland, Hurricane strength.

squarecircles

A category 2 hurricane in the eastern Atlantic heading towards Europe,it sounds like a fantasy.Incredible.

MidMan25

Parents often mentioned the storm in 1987 as it occurred on their wedding day :pac:

Strangegravy

Fantastic Detail here by Forecaster Zelinsky.



Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Ophelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon. The eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -55 deg C.

Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt.

Ophelia is nearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop strengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24 hours due to upwelling effects. That said, the intensity guidance
is in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength for the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear
environment.

Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin,
though baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia near hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK.

The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

Although Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough should cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within about 24 hours. The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in
the faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before turning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical transition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the
southern extent of the trough.

Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is tightly clustered through this period.

The model spread increases substantially at 96 h and beyond.

As a post-tropical cyclone, Ophelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the trough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this
interaction. However, the details of this turn vary greatly from model to model.

The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
toward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front.

In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom.

While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.

Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days.

For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.4N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Itssoeasy

Hang on so it's now a CAT 2 hurricane and the NHC have it as a hurricane over Ireland ?

Any of the experts here want to give any advice as to how this could change by Monday for the better for us ?

sdanseo

squarecircles wrote: »

A category 2 hurricane in the eastern Atlantic heading towards Europe,it sounds like a fantasy.Incredible.

It's already increased by >10mph over and above the max forecast strength. Not to sensationalise - but if it were to do the same again and gain another 10mph it becomes a Category 3 Major Hurricane.

For earlier today:

cherryghost wrote: »

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

A couple of things I'm wondering.

Movement is stationary, and MT alluded to this. Does that increase the chances of it turning back west instead? And if not, does more strengthening now (presumably because it's sticking around longer over warmer water) make it any more or less likely to reach us with a higher residual strength despite the inevitable weakening as it moves north?

Also looks like although a H is displayed on the NHC chart it's a hurricane-force extra-tropical cyclone. Of course as it's so much further north this is important because it has no potential to really strengthen any further, in the moment it will make feck all difference. It's a hurricane in all but name on that chart.

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

NHC giving it an easterly shift and a substantial upgrade. Shows it as a Hurricane over land in Ireland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs_OacEq2Sk

squarecircles

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

mirrorwall14

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Hang on so it's now a CAT 2 hurricane and the NHC have it as a hurricane over Ireland ?

Any of the experts here want to give any advice as to how this could change by Monday for the better for us ?

Depends on what you consider to be ‘better’ lol. This is the weather forum after all!

It’s 4 days out. My limited understanding is the current models are for a substantial windstorm over Ireland but there won’t be final information as to its track (e.g. in the Atlantic or over us) until Saturday at the earliest

Just sticking the 5pm (EDT) NHC chart in here as a screen shot for future reference. I've never seen a 'H' over Ireland before, even if it is showing the system as extra-tropical by then.

Mam's Mam remembered Debbie in 1961. She was in Westport in Co. Mayo at the time. Her abiding memory was the sheer amount of stuff flying around. Roof slates etc.

aisling86

squarecircles wrote:

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I've told them all they are currently laughing at me saying ya right, but I'm glad I've passed on the message, just incase!!! 😨

Itssoeasy

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I'm saying nothing until closer to the event. I'm not going to make a langer of myself if this misses us.

BillyBobBS

Will i take the washing in so?

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I’ve already done that and got the usual “arra it won’t happen!”

PokeHerKing

squarecircles wrote:

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

Most rags and the internet beat you to it.

redsteveireland

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

That counts for every event thread here.

Donegal Storm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Hang on so it's now a CAT 2 hurricane and the NHC have it as a hurricane over Ireland ?

Any of the experts here want to give any advice as to how this could change by Monday for the better for us ?

They have hurricane force winds over us but not a hurricane(once it changes to a white circle its no longer a hurricane), big difference in terms of rainfall and organisation of winds, even the wind is just about borderline category 1.

sdanseo

Comparison between the 4pm and 10pm forecasts:

Kalyke

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/hurricane.html

JanuarySnowstor

Looks like the nhc are thinking gfs has it too far West.....and not for the first time have they gone against the US model.

In fact the gfs has been very poor this Autumn

MJohnston

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I'll be warning my elderly neighbours to stock up on torches/candles anyway, or letting them know I'll have some if they need them. It doesn't take much to knock the power out and it's dark early this time of year. At least it should stay relatively warm.