Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Autochange

Is it possible that it will continue to track west? Meaning it could mostly avoid Ireland?

Gaoth Laidir

Latest IR image. Those grids are 2 degrees (120 nautical miles/222 km) in height, so with about 2.5 boxes (~300 n.mi/550 km) left to travel and a foward speed of around 50 kph it will take about 11 hours for the centre to reach the south. That's about 10-11 am, in line with the models.

Louche Lad

Interesting observation:

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/919554081315844097

Reggie.

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Size of the wind field

So it's beginning off the South coast any time now?

km79

civdef wrote: »

Just a query regarding yr.no, what models would they be using for forecasts of Ireland- generally find them good, but their wind speeds for tomorrow seem to be out of kilter?

Yeah I asked this earlier too
Whatever model it is it's been absolutely wrong !

MJohnston

Louche Lad wrote: »

Interesting observation: https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/919554081315844097

Won't go east of the Greenwich Meridian either, I believe

uck51js9zml2yt

mel.b wrote: »

Is it just me or does it look like from the sat24 image that it is (has?) shifting slightly more west?

Joanna saying that any shift east or west won't make any difference to the intensity or danger!

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Size of the predicted wind field close to now.

That's for 1 am, so it's still a bit further south than shown.

Rikand

Autochange wrote: »

Is it possible that it will continue to track west? Meaning it could mostly avoid Ireland?

Well its tracking straight north rather than west atm and it could keep going north for a time. However the system its tangled up in at the moment won't allow it to move west so even if it keeps going north, parts of the country will still get a serious wind event

Meteorite58

So it's beginning off the South coast any time now?

See the GIF models a couple of pages back, you can make out the times the winds will arrive to your area.

Autochange

Rikand wrote: »

Well its tracking straight north rather than west atm and it could keep going north for a time. However the system its tangled up in at the moment won't allow it to move west so even if it keeps going north, parts of the country will still get a serious wind event

Okay thanks. Im in north Tipp so unsure how much of the storm we will get

Meteorite58

Mod Note : Warning to Pokerking see Mod note on First post :

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1
Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Autochange

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Mod Note : Warning to Pokerking see Mod note on First post :

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1
Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

? Is that aimed at me? I just asked a question

Meteorite58

? Is that aimed at me? I just asked a question

Mod Note: No, I moved your post into the discussion thread.

Rikand

Autochange wrote: »

Okay thanks. Im in north Tipp so unsure how much of the storm we will get

If you're north of the silvermine mountains you could be okay. They'd act as a bit of a shield for you.

All depends on your local topography with how you might fair out. If you're badly exposed to the South then you could get some damage

Autochange

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Mod Note: No, I moved your post into the discussion thread.

OK no worries . Might get some info here though. Other thread is just some people complaining about having to work and wheelie bins blowing away! Some good info on this one

Super-Rush

Tracking further west still on Sat24.

_Whimsical_

Super-Rush wrote: »

Tracking further west still on Sat24.

Will this change the potential impact and places affected?

jds0ur

Does anyone have a recorded track of where is been?

crushproof

Is it just me or is veering a lot more to the west than expected?

Super-Rush

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Will this change the potential impact and places affected?

Red warning should still be in effect for Western coastal counties.

pauldry

It could miss Co Kerry (the low centre) but arent all the strongest winds to the East of the low centre.

Would be better if it went as originally forecast.....or spun out to the West completely n fc uk ed off

Minister

Does above mean that tomorrow's weather will be nowhere near as serious as thought earlier on today?

Note - l am trying to learn from posts as don't know meteorology. Thanks.

Super-Rush

Minister wrote: »

Does above mean that tomorrow's weather will be nowhere near as serious as thought earlier on today?

Note - l am trying to learn from posts as don't know meteorology. Thanks.

Still too early to say.

It could swing back East again or stay West. The next hour or two will tell a lot.

spookwoman

Path so far times are 19.30, 21.30, 22.35, 23.35 red is the center

stevenup7002

A few hours ago, some people were saying it looked like it was going too far east and would hit France, so...

Hooter23

If it tracks further west than forecast the strongest winds will be in the west, south and perhaps further inland too...we shall see

Donegal Storm

No real change on the 18z Arome, track is further east than the gfs, 150kph gusts on the immediate south coast, around 100-120kph for most.



Potential for gale force or even up to strong gale force 9 right into the midlands

BoatMad

pauldry wrote: »

It could miss Co Kerry (the low centre) but arent all the strongest winds to the East of the low centre.

Would be better if it went as originally forecast.....or spun out to the West completely n fc uk ed off

Yes. Strongest winds well to the east

piuswal

Beginning to show influence on wind direction now

see

http://www.met.ie/latest/marine-analysis.asp

http://www.met.ie/weathermaps/WEB_Analysis.png?2351