Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Birtles

flaneur wrote: »

spookwoman wrote: »

Looking at  https://en.sat24.com/en looks like the top arm or whatever you call it will hit cork coast soon enough

That’s much earlier than I was expecting.

currently in south cork, approx 10 miles from coast. like a summers night bar the fog. calm, warm and still. erie

Rubberchikken

In cork too.
Some fog warm and yes eerily calm

Prefab Sprouter

Its eerie in Dublin, We've got fog in South Dublin, really balmy and no wind. Its bizarre

spookwoman

2am added can see that arm off the coast of cork

Colser

Rubberchikken wrote: »

In cork too.
Some fog warm and yes eerily calm

In Cork here also,very warm and dead calm.

BoatMad

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think what gave it an appearance of making a NNW jog was probably the old hurricane circulation being captured by rapidly developing upper low to its NW but that process seemed to be complete by about 2330h so now the reformed system will continue to head NNE in the jet stream.

As to anything earlier being a bit on the technical side, I was just saying that on infra-red satellite you could see a tight centre of rotation developing towards the end of the sequence and temps in the warm sector of the developing new frontal system are warm for this time of year.

The 1987 storm had some temps near 18 or 19 ahead of the occlusion, so this one is at least equally loaded with heat energy. The occluded front already becoming visible on satellite is lifting that warm air rapidly, which should lead to widespread thunderstorm activity late tonight (from southwest Ireland to south Wales and Cornwall possibly). These will be elevated storms at first so they won't be producing surface gusts but if the front tightens up and comes into contact with the wrap-around rush of southwest winds, then it could be the estofex forecast tornadic activity (will be watching radar ready to comment on any such developments if I see them tomorrow morning to mid-day time frame).

As you know I am eight hours behind your time zone so would be watching this anyway but expect to find quite a few active participants all night. Amazing how well the ECM did at 120 hours with this, almost a perfect low placement (which is why this thread got started).

Yes indeed , I've been monitoring GFS , ECMWF, and NEMS models and personally the ECMWF is by far the closest

flaneur

Very eery. It’s almost like it’s dampening normal environmental noises. Perhaps the fog?

D.Q

Yeah extremely quiet here in Wicklow. Very warm too. Was just out on the road, not a bit of wind.

nagdefy

The 2pm Met Stations temperature reports for the stations in the southern half of the country are in the mid teens. The warm air pushing up from the south/southwest.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Hastentoadd

So I still beg the question. We have all the graphs. So can people give a suggested path, who is in danger, why they are in danger, or do we have to look at more graphs. At what point does technical become reality

mrkiscool2

flaneur wrote: »

Very eery. It’s almost like it’s dampening normal environmental noises. Perhaps the fog?

No, due to lack of wind. Sound will travel further if it is moving in the direction the wind is blowing (and there is always sound coming from some direction). Less wind means the sound waves of the normal environment won't travel as far. It's a weird one.

BorneTobyWilde

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-37.29,51.24,1821/loc=-10.578,46.185

Still has a feed source. Still so strong

dublinman1990

Met Eireann have given another update about the storm.

Weather News

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia: Key Public Safety & Information Messages

16 October 2017
People should remain indoors for the duration of the storm.

All unnecessary travel should be avoided on Monday 16th Oct 2017, while the storm is passing.

Don’t travel during the height of the storm unless absolutely necessary. Listen to local radio and national media broadcasts for Met Éireann updates on the current weather situation.

High seas are predicted, the public are advised to stay away from coastal areas during this period.

Very strong winds are predicted making driving conditions hazardous, especially for the more vulnerable road users, e.g., cyclists, pedestrian’s, motorcyclist and high sided vehicles. Road users should pay particular attention to the risk posed by fallen trees and flying debris.

Given anticipated weather conditions, Mon 16thOct 2017 should be a no bike day.

Power outages are likely to occur in certain parts of the country, with contingency planning activated by the ESB. The ESB is advising the public to stay away from fallen cables that may have broken due to the high winds. ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1850 372 999.

All Schools and Colleges Closed Tomorrow

In response to the imminent Ex-Hurricane Ophelia, the Department of Education and Skills has publicly informing all schools, colleges and other education institutions that they are to remain closed tomorrow, Monday 16 October. This decision has been made following discussions with members of the Government Task Force on Emergency Planning and in light of the advice from Met Éireann on this unprecedented storm. Crèches and Montessori facilities should also remain closed tomorrow.

Many public transport services and aviation services will not operate tomorrow – please with providers before embarking on any journeys.

People are asked to check in on isolated and vulnerable neighbours in advance of the oncoming severe weather conditions and again after the worst of the event has passed.

People are advised to remove patio furniture, rubbish bins and any loose items from around buildings, which can be turned into missiles by the wind.

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=456

BoatMad

Hastentoadd wrote: »

So I still beg the question. We have all the graphs. So can people give a suggested path, who is in danger, why they are in danger, or do we have to look at more graphs. At what point does technical become reality

The technical is the only reality , the rest is conjecture and opinion , mostly mis informed

MJohnston

Hastentoadd wrote: »

So I still beg the question. We have all the graphs. So can people give a suggested path, who is in danger, why they are in danger, or do we have to look at more graphs. At what point does technical become reality

Come on dude, the mods keep moving your posts to the other thread for a reason, they have a difficult enough job keeping this all neat, have some respect for them!

firemansam4

spookwoman wrote: »

2am added can see that arm off the coast of cork

Still seems to be tracking a good bit west.

BoatMad

firemansam4 wrote: »

Still seems to be tracking a good bit west.

Looks more or less bang on as per the ECMWF model , centre to track up the west coast , damaging winds to the east , rain in the west.

MJohnston

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

No, due to lack of wind. Sound will travel further if it is moving in the direction the wind is blowing (and there is always sound coming from some direction). Less wind means the sound waves of the normal environment won't travel as far. It's a weird one.

There's another aspect to the eerieness where I am, I live in Cabra and honestly every night is a symphony of dogs barking and howling at each other. Tonight is utterly silent, which is so very eerie.

ANDREWMUFC

It’s moving westerly alot now so we should be grand.

Not as bad as feared thankfully

MJohnston

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

It’s moving westerly alot now so we should be grand.

Not as bad as feared thankfully

This is not true

Rougies

Hastentoadd wrote: »

So I still beg the question. We have all the graphs. So can people give a suggested path, who is in danger, why they are in danger, or do we have to look at more graphs. At what point does technical become reality

It's a technical discussion thread. Look to Met Éireann if you want professional opinions on the technical aspects vs. reality. Thanks.

BoatMad

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

It’s moving westerly alot now so we should be grand.

Not as bad as feared thankfully

Based on what analysis

Oops!

MJohnston wrote: »

There's another aspect to the eerieness where I am, I live in Cabra and honestly every night is a symphony of dogs barking and howling at each other. Tonight is utterly silent, which is so very eerie.

Animals are clever, have our dog here cowering under my feet all night looking up at me here like a scared child... Never seen him at that before!

nagdefy

Hastentoadd wrote: »

So I still beg the question. We have all the graphs. So can people give a suggested path, who is in danger, why they are in danger, or do we have to look at more graphs. At what point does technical become reality

It's reality now. We'll end up with what's called a nowcast situation as gust reports come in once the storm really hits the south coast around 9-10am.

Sometimes they can be difficult to predict. However Cork, Kerry, Waterford, Limerick, Galway, Wexford will all definitely see severe damaging gusts and probable sea surges. The southern half of the country will be in a mixed red/orange area. The higher end of Orange. Gusts from 110-140km per hr. This will bring down power lines, trees, branches, result in dangerous flying debris. Everywhere is at risk of this. You need to follow the forecast throughout the day. If higher gusts than expected are recorded in Cork/Kerry this is bad news for the rest of us. Follow the path of the storm and you'll have a fair idea a couple of hours in advance what is going to hit you (metaphorically hopefully)

spookwoman

2.30 added



Precipitation Radar

nagdefy

firemansam4 wrote: »

Still seems to be tracking a good bit west.

From 23.35 the curve is eastward as predicted. Will hit the Kerry shore or come close.

pauldry

And certainly hit galway too

nagdefy

spookwoman wrote: »

2.30 added



Precipitation Radar

It's amazing how well the track has been predicted by the NOAA. It's hard enough to tell what way the currents will take the water out of your bathtub!

Rougies

spookwoman wrote: »

2.30 added

I appreciate your efforts, but your centers are way off for the past couple of hours. You're basically following the center cloud tops from when it was still a tropical storm, which the jet have carried off during transition to post-tropical status. The actual center is quite a bit more south.

ANDREWMUFC

I’m in Galway and it’s very wild at the moment. Strong winds for the last hour