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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium · 2017-10-11 18:52:03

Mod note This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming Don’t say you weren’t warned!! And please don’t feed Thanks Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing…

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#2222 16-10-2017 2:43am
MJohnston

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Remember what "hit" means - focusing on the centre of the storm ignores the fact that the worst winds are to the east of the centre, and the wind-field is very wide. Even if this storm stays off the west coast and never makes landfall, it will still pummel the majority of the island.

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#2223 16-10-2017 2:47am
Hastentoadd

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ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

I’m in Galway and it’s very wild at the moment. Strong winds for the last hour

not a gasp of wind in the midlands yet

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#2224 16-10-2017 2:48am
signostic

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Looking at the latest sat images it looks like a secondary eye is developing sw of the original eye, is this possible?

https://en.sat24.com/en

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#2225 16-10-2017 2:48am
nagdefy

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MJohnston wrote: »

Remember what "hit" means - focusing on the centre of the storm ignores the fact that the worst winds are to the east of the centre, and the wind-field is very wide. Even if this storm stays off the west coast and never makes landfall, it will still pummel the majority of the island.

I'd imagine a lot of Dublin and eastern sea board people posting don't think the wind field is as large and feel with the centre of the storm being dead on the west coast they'll escape with 100km gusts.

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#2226 16-10-2017 2:48am
StringerBell

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Hastentoadd wrote: »

not a gasp of wind in the midlands yet

I am not sure his updates are to be believed. See previous post for example.

"People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."

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#2227 16-10-2017 2:49am
MJohnston

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ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

I’m in Galway and it’s very wild at the moment. Strong winds for the last hour

Where in Galway exactly? Weather stations in Galway City, Athenry, and Mace Head all reporting very little wind at all, and they shouldn't be yet anyway.

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#2228 16-10-2017 2:49am
nagdefy

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Hastentoadd wrote: »

not a gasp of wind in the midlands yet

I don't mean to sound smart but we're hours away from the beginnings in the midlands. The first stirrings will be around 8am and by that i mean a breeze.

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#2229 16-10-2017 2:50am
BoatMad

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nagdefy wrote: »

I'd imagine a lot of Dublin and eastern sea board people posting don't think the wind field is as large and feel with the centre of the storm being dead on the west coast they'll escape with 100km gusts.

Anyone taking a gander at any of the " wind" apps is left in no doubt where the wind is.

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#2230 16-10-2017 2:50am
Noveight

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Has gotten blustery here in north Co.Clare, nothing hectic yet mind.

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#2231 16-10-2017 2:51am
spookwoman

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Rougies wrote: »

I appreciate your efforts, but your centers are way off for the past couple of hours. You're basically following the center cloud tops from when it was still a tropical storm, which the jet have carried off during transition to post-tropical status. The actual center is quite a bit more south.

Much appreciated is it where purple is as it's not really moving at all, just the outer part is expanding

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#2232 16-10-2017 2:52am
nagdefy

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BoatMad wrote: »

Anyone taking a gander at any of the " wind" apps is left in no doubt where the wind is.

I know BoatMad but a lot don't seem to be:)

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#2233 16-10-2017 2:54am
Hastentoadd

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StringerBell wrote: »

I am not sure his updates are to be believed. See previous post for example.

What?

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#2234 16-10-2017 2:54am
drunkmonkey

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nagdefy wrote: »

I don't mean to sound smart but we're hours away from the beginnings in the midlands. The first stirrings will be around 8am and by that i mean a breeze.

Going by sat24 it’s nearly all ready passed us https://en.sat24.com/en

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#2235 16-10-2017 2:55am
BoatMad

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nagdefy wrote: »

I know BoatMad but a lot don't seem to be:)

I agree , people are misplacing the storm centre and don't understand where the strongest winds are in this type of storm.

I'm in Wexford , very quiet and very warm , don't expect wind before 6am

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#2236 16-10-2017 2:56am
MJohnston

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going by sat24 it’s nearly all ready passed us https://en.sat24.com/en

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=104983028&postcount=2223

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#2237 16-10-2017 2:58am
Rougies

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signostic wrote: »

Looking at the latest sat images it looks like a secondary eye is developing sw of the original eye, is this possible?

https://en.sat24.com/en

It's not really a "secondary eye", but more like the newly formed eye as it turned from a hurricane into a storm.

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#2238 16-10-2017 2:59am
BoatMad

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going by sat24 it’s nearly all ready passed us https://en.sat24.com/en

OFFS , what's this sort of opinion doing in this thread

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#2239 16-10-2017 2:59am
nagdefy

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going by sat24 it’s nearly all ready passed us https://en.sat24.com/en

That's not true. It has a few hours to reach the south coast yet!

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#2240 16-10-2017 3:06am
nagdefy

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http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Jan1839_Storm.PDF

Page 40 of the above shows how far away the centre of the cyclone on the Night of The Big Wind, 1839, was from the Donegal coast and yet how much damage it did nationwide.

These are totally different types of storm in origin but just to put to bed the idea that the centre of the storm centre staying west of Ireland is somehow an indication that we are escaping the worst of the coming storm.

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#2241 16-10-2017 3:07am
drunkmonkey

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nagdefy wrote: »

That's not true. It has a few hours to reach the south coast yet!

Is it the sting in the tail? The Center looks like it’s just past Donegal and there’s been no reports of anything, I’ve just walked home and it was a bit misty and cold. Was expecting it to be mild.

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#2242 16-10-2017 3:08am
BoatMad

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nagdefy wrote: »

That's not true. It has a few hours to reach the south coast yet!

Light wind starting here in Wexford.

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#2243 16-10-2017 3:09am
BoatMad

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

Is it the sting in the tail? The Center looks like it’s just past Donegal and there’s been no reports of anything, I’ve just walked home and it was a bit misty and cold. Was expecting it to be mild.

Plesee stop with this nonsense

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#2244 16-10-2017 3:10am
Mullaghteelin

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That convective blob from the old eye feature on the satellite looks like it will be pulled around into the western side of the circulation. The really intense rainfall has been forecast to stay on west side of the storm as it reaches Ireland.

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#2245 16-10-2017 3:11am
nagdefy

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

Is it the sting in the tail? The Center looks like it’s just past Donegal and there’s been no reports of anything, I’ve just walked home and it was a bit misty and cold. Was expecting it to be mild.

Are you for real or trolling??

See the small patch of white cloud with a little black circle to the left, south west of Kerry. That's the storm.

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#2246 16-10-2017 3:13am
drunkmonkey

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nagdefy wrote: »

Are you for real or trolling??

See the small patch of white cloud with a little black circle to the left, south west of Kerry. That's the storm.

This is what I’m looking at https://en.sat24.com/en

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#2247 16-10-2017 3:14am
spookwoman

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You can download m3 Bouy records in csv format

http://data.marine.ie/Dataset/Details/20972#

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#2248 16-10-2017 3:14am
PLL

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MJohnston wrote: »

Where in Galway exactly? Weather stations in Galway City, Athenry, and Mace Head all reporting very little wind at all, and they shouldn't be yet anyway.

I'm in the city. Not a sign of any wind. Eerie quiet.

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#2249 16-10-2017 3:17am
nagdefy

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drunkmonkey wrote: »

This is what I’m looking at https://en.sat24.com/en

And that's where i described it as being. It's south west of Kerry on it.

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#2250 16-10-2017 3:18am
BoatMad

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PLL wrote: »

I'm in the city. Not a sign of any wind. Eerie quiet.

That would be consistent

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#2251 16-10-2017 3:18am
ANDREWMUFC

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MJohnston wrote: »

Where in Galway exactly? Weather stations in Galway City, Athenry, and Mace Head all reporting very little wind at all, and they shouldn't be yet anyway.

yea near athenry, it’s very gusty here stopped raining 20 mins ago though

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