So this Hurricane

The_Valeyard

Is it time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Chester Copperpot

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Is it time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Give it another 24 hours to be on the safe side for justification

mirrorwall14

server down wrote: »

No. They are giving the scientific consensus. The job wouldn’t be attractive if everybody is guaranteed to get fired. Since this is a non exact science based on your criteria, they will get fired.

You are part of the problem. Met.ie once got a red warning wrong in your parish and you want them fired. It’s attitudes mike that that makes them timid enough in releasing warnings.

Exactly. This is mathematical modeling involving probabilities. It’s never an exact science, the margin of error (particularly since we are a very small country compared to some of the weather systems) can be substantial.

In this case however the consensus among the models from a long way out has been quite incredible tbh

pitifulgod

YeaYeaSure wrote: »

For me if they get big calls wrong a couple of times. It should call for heads to roll. It would in any other job. I am also counting under playing storms as much as over blowing them BTW.

It's still a cat 3 hurricane and hasn't even arrived here yet. I would view these as sensible precautions that are entirely necessary to protect lives..

Harry Palmr

Just downgraded, now Cat 2. It'll be a a sub-tropical storm on Monday morning but that shouldn't fool anyone into thinking it's going to be "just a bit windy"

Samaris

It's better to be over-prepared and it to be an anticlimax when it hits us than to be under-prepared and only realise it too late. I'm preparing for this thing, and if it goes quiet, grand job, I still have a roof!

The hurricane, as I've gathered it, was supposed to start losing cohesion as it turned into an extratropical storm when it met the jet stream, due to intense upper-level shear chopping the top off the hurricane. However, it hit a patch of low shear and stayed intact for longer. It has started turning now and the eye was getting ragged last night, but it's still going to be intense when it does hit. But because this is -really unusual- here, the models aren't quite fixed even at 24hrs out. A slight waver could have the worst of it (the eastern side/the right side) smashing into the south coast and the eye over Galway, or the eye a bit further west or east with consequent impacts from the right wall of the hurricane closer to Cork or to the Irish sea (and the west coast of England). The direct track of the eye south-to-north is probably one of the better places to be, so Galway might appear to get a direct hit but actually not fare too badly at all.

You might prepare and get lucky, you might go "Ah sure it'll be fine" and get the worst of it.

BillyBobBS

Downgraded already. I'm hearing it won't even be a hurricane when it hits.

OldMrBrennan83

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FrancieBrady

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Downgraded already. I'm hearing it won't even be a hurricane when it hits.

It was never going to be.

iguana

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Downgraded already. I'm hearing it won't even be a hurricane when it hits.

It was never, ever going to hit Ireland as a hurricane. Our waters are too cold for the eye to maintain integrity this far north. Doesn't mean we won't get hit by hurricane force winds though.

fryup

so......Darwin was downgraded too, and look at the devastation that caused

Samaris

The whole thing about it changing to an extratropical storm is a bit misleading. The shape of the hurricane changes, but the forces involved can be just as high or higher.

As I've followed it, it will hit the shore with the strength of a Cat 1, although it will not necessarily be a "Cat 1" as that is a hurricane definition rather than an ex-hurricane definition.

iguana

Patww79 wrote: »

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The eye has started to destabilise overnight and is no longer as large or symmetrical as it was yesterday. The winds surrounding it however are still very strong and it's currently predicted to make landfall in the south with cat 2 hurricane strength winds.

_Dara_

iguana wrote: »

It was never, ever going to hit Ireland as a hurricane. Our waters are too cold for the eye to maintain integrity this far north. Doesn't mean we won't get hit by hurricane force winds though.

If we are hit with hurricane force winds, then it’s a hurricane.

We won’t be, the winds will be less forceful than hurricane speed but can still do a lot of damage.

Hurricane Debbie, people!

OldMrBrennan83

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The_Valeyard

Samaris wrote: »

It's better to be over-prepared and it to be an anticlimax when it hits us than to be under-prepared and only realise it too late......

.......You might prepare and get lucky, you might go "Ah sure it'll be fine" and get the worst of it.

So, its like loosing your virginity.

suicide_circus

The_Valeyard wrote: »

So, its like loosing your virginity.

Let the juice loose!

server down

Patww79 wrote: »

People are saying it's being downgraded though. Where's that coming from?

Nothings been downgraded on the charts for tomorrow.

It was never going to hit Ireland as a cat 3 hurricane. It was always forecast to be an ex tropical storm. I mean if it did we would be evacuating the coast.

Scary story? It was never expected to reach Cat 3.

Turtwig

YeaYeaSure wrote: »

For me if they get big calls wrong a couple of times. It should call for heads to roll. It would in any other job. I am also counting under playing storms as much as over blowing them BTW.

And that's what seriously stupid about modern society, make a mistake and you should resign or be fired. Not every call can be the correct one and this culture of looking for blame leads people to be more intent on covering their own asses than proactively making a decision.

This is a chaotic storm heading our way even the slightest deviations in its track will have profound implications on its potential impact. It's almost impossible to get its exact evolution right.

fryup

server down wrote: »

It was never going to hit Ireland as a cat 3 hurricane. It was always forecast to be an ex tropical storm. I mean if it did we would be evacuating the coast.

imagine that scenario.....cork people staying in your house for the night, shudder the thought !!!

iguana

Patww79 wrote: »

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It's being downgraded as the eye is collapsing but that was always expected. The warnings about the worst that could to hit us haven't changed.

_Dara_ wrote: »

If we are hit with hurricane force winds, then it’s a hurricane.

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

server down

https://twitter.com/JoannaDonnellyL/status/919510697901424641

bnt

Patww79 wrote: »

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There seems to be some confusion as to what's going on here. For current information about the hurricane, we look at sites like Weather Underground for details. Hurricanes naturally degrade when they don't get the energy to sustain them from warm sea water. Ophelia is now over cooler water, is degrading, and is not expected to be a hurricane (technically) by the time it hits Ireland. This is not new information, and it's not a surprise that there's talk of a "downgrade" in that sense.

But (as we know from previous storms) a storm doesn't need the "hurricane" label to be enormously destructive. The storm hitting Ireland on Monday could technically fit the parameters to be called a "hurricane", but if not, it's going to be close - a "post-tropical (extratropical) cyclone", as Wunderground puts it. The "post-tropical" part refers to the fact that it's no longer in the Tropics, but doesn't mean "weaker". Some parts are still going to see winds of tropical storm force, or even "hurricane strength".

In summary: "downgrades" of Hurricane Ophelia from its current status are expected and have been all along. But "downgrade" in the technical sense doesn't automatically mean it's "fizzling out".

Harry Palmr

Harry Palmr wrote: »

From the NHC in Miami



ME have not updated there RED/ORANGE warnings since yesterday lunchtime which feels lazy. I'd regard the entire
country from Arklow along the south and west coasts to Malin Head as being in the RED firing line and then inland for about 80 Km at least.

Midday RTE radio news - ME info says that the strongest winds will hit East Munster/South Leinster. Yet it remains a status YELLOW, seems weird.

fryup

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

eye in the sky:rolleyes:

shush! its a hurricane in all but name, don't spoil the party

Atoms for Peace

<ominous telex sounds>

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084624.shtml?cone#contents

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-12.13,32.09,597/loc=-75.000,-27.829

super_furry

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

State of your bleedin' eye!

What's this going to be comparable to in Irish weather events? As severe as hurricane Charlie?

_Dara_

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

No, the categories of hurricane relate to wind speed. If there are sustained category 2 wind speeds, it’s a category 2 hurricane. The state of the eye is probably linked to the speed of the wind.

fryup

super_furry wrote: »

What's this going to be comparable to in Irish weather events? As severe as hurricane Charlie?

i reckon (and i'm no expert mind)...but my gut feeling it will be on par with storm Darwin that we had 3 years back

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB1EG_BH6Fg

xper

lazybones32 wrote: »

Fcuk met eireann. All week they were saying 'it'll be lovely at the weekend; 20 degrees'. They only seem to be accurate when they predict bad weather. I'd sooner listen to a horoscope.

But it has been a lovely weekend with temperatures well above normal.

The storm is due on Monday,i.e., not the weekend, and has been flagged up in their Outlook for several days.

tomwaterford

Its times like this,I'm glad the house here is on top of a hill,

To paraphrase frank Boyle. ...we can sit on top here and watch the neighbouring parish drown

Samaris

_Dara_ wrote: »

No, the categories of hurricane relate to wind speed. If there are sustained category 2 wind speeds, it’s a category 2 hurricane. The state of the eye is probably linked to the speed of the wind.

Sort-of, you're both right.

It won't (probably) be a -hurricane-, as that is to do with the shape of the storm, rotating around an eye. As it moves northwards and meets up with the rotating wind around the polar region, it will change shape, the eye will disintegrate and it will be an "extra-tropical storm" technically. This tends to happen in the mid-northern latitudes. This has started to happen now, although it was a tad later than expected in making the change, I think.

However, this is a technical definition and means relatively little in terms of how much impact it will have. An extra-tropical storm hitting with the force of a Cat 2 hurricane is nothing to be sneezed at, whether or not it's technically classified as a hurricane.

Avatar MIA

fryup wrote: »

imagine that scenario.....cork people staying in your house for the night, shudder the thought !!!

I know, while they'd be around you'd be expected to use knives and forks, use toilet paper instead of yesterday's the The Sun newspaper, and possibly stop sleeping with your sister... but let's not get too crazy.

Avatar MIA

tomwaterford wrote: »

Its times like this,I'm glad the house here is on top of a hill,

To paraphrase frank Boyle. ...we can sit on top here and watch the neighbouring parish drown

Yeah, being on top of an exposed hill. Great place to be during the worst storm in many decades/ever recorded. :pac:

Samaris

Posted this in the other preparation thread over on weather (I'm a bad person, I know), but I think it's worth doing;

No harm to have water prepared too, by the way. Fill a bath or a large container with water for washing and toilet-flushing and have water prepared for drinking too.

There is a possibility of contamination of water supplies - particularly wells if the pump goes down for some time, but also large reservoirs and mains water supplies. Personally, I'm expecting some water supplies to get contaminated or cut, although not hazarding a guess as to where. Combination of whether your water supply is vulnerable to either the full force (south coast) or vulnerable to environmental hazards anyway (west & midlands).

Either way, no harm to have some preparations in place for the possibility.

tomwaterford

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Yeah, being on top of an exposed hill. Great place to be during the worst storm in many decades/ever recorded. :pac:

I'm buying a kite later

BillyBobBS

tomwaterford wrote: »

I'm buying a kite later

Be a great day for hand gliding.

qo2cj1dsne8y4k

Should I still put the bins out tonight?

Samaris

Current storm stats - downgraded to Cat 2 (as expected)

Waterford and Wexford added to Red warning zone.

Avatar MIA

tomwaterford wrote: »

I'm buying a kite later

Man up for fup sake, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Hang Glider FTW!

server down

_Dara_ wrote: »

No, the categories of hurricane relate to wind speed. If there are sustained category 2 wind speeds, it’s a category 2 hurricane. The state of the eye is probably linked to the speed of the wind.

That’s not correct. This isn’t technically a hurricane because it’s an entirely different weather system. This doesn’t mean it’s not powerful.

Avatar MIA

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Be a great day for hand gliding.

Dag nabbit, didn't see this. :pac:

_Dara_

Samaris wrote: »

The whole thing about it changing to an extratropical storm is a bit misleading. The shape of the hurricane changes, but the forces involved can be just as high or higher.

As I've followed it, it will hit the shore with the strength of a Cat 1, although it will not necessarily be a "Cat 1" as that is a hurricane definition rather than an ex-hurricane definition.

Worrying, considering that Debbie’s sustained wind speeds were a good deal less than Category 1 and that the storm didn’t quite make landfall (skirted the west coast) and still caused a lot of damage.

Barry Badrinath

I hope the Healy-Rae's survive the storm.

They better nail the fairies to the wall to make sure they dont end up in Greenland.

Estrellita

Samaris wrote: »

Fill a bath or a large container with water for washing and toilet-flushing and have water prepared for drinking too.

Good post. I hope people will just take this very simple step to ensure they have flushable toilets.

Our water comes from our well, which will cease working if there is a power cut, so we're stocking up on water for consumption too.

People need to consider that if that there are power outages across the country, it may be some time before theirs is restored. The efforts to restore power may also be hindered by fallen trees etc.

Fully charge your phones. Spare batteries or battery packs are a good idea. Think about the problems you might face if your power is out. Light, heat, and food.

_Dara_

Samaris wrote: »

However, this is a technical definition and means relatively little in terms of how much impact it will have. An extra-tropical storm hitting with the force of a Cat 2 hurricane is nothing to be sneezed at, whether or not it's technically classified as a hurricane.

server down wrote: »

That’s not correct. This isn’t technically a hurricane because it’s an entirely different weather system. This doesn’t mean it’s not powerful.

The forecast wind speeds aren’t anywhere near Cat 2 though or even Cat 1 though. Currently the mean wind speeds are expected to be in excess of 80 km/h. That means greater than 80 but they’d have to exceed it by 40 km/h to be on a par with hurricane force wind speeds.

AndyBoBandy

Did anyone just see the weather forecast on RTÉ 1?

I know the storm is coming, just talk about amateur hour!!!

She was all over the place

Barry Badrinath

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Did anyone just see the weather forecast on RTÉ 1?

I know the storm is coming, just talk about amateur hour!!!

She was all over the place

I thought it was the best report she has given on the storm so far. More detailed than usual.

J Mysterio

RayM wrote: »

There'll be a lot of disappointed people on the Weather forum if it turns out to be a damp squid. They're always putting these weather 'events' on a great big pedal stool. I expect some of them are trying to persuade their parents to panic-buy essential items and board the windows up, in anticipation of what will doubtless be remembered for many years as "The Great Blustery Day of 2017".

Hahaha

SSr0

Was surfing with a Portuguese Man o' war in Garretstown just there. Poor fúcker must of got swept a good bit to reach here.