Weather disruptions to flights Monday 16th Oct - post here

Masala

Hi

Just posting this Sat nite in advance of the severe weather alert for Monday all across Ireland

Just wondering if anyone got any notice of their flight for Monday being cancelled etc ?? Maybe if posted here .. all can stay updated!

Please do NOT post questions like "will my flight at 15:00 be affected, as we don't have a crystal ball to get you an answer. If clear guidance is given by the airlines, or the airport operators, we will try and keep people updated. What is clear at present is that if the weather is as significant as the forecasts are suggesting, all the main airports in the Republic will be majorly affected at some stage during Monday. It is very unlikely that Aer Lingus Regional flights will operate a normal schedule, and with the winds that are being forecast, there will also be many cancellations or diversions of jet services, which will result in significant delays

Knock may escape the worst of the wind, hoping

From RTE,

Tomorrow Monday, stormy conditions are expected to develop, in association with Ex-Hurricane Ophelia. Rain will be widespread, with the heaviest falls likely to occur in Atlantic coastal counties, where there is a risk of thunder. At present, it looks as though gusty east to southeast winds will strengthen to storm force in the southwest by early afternoon, with strong gales developing along southern, eastern and some western coasts during the afternoon and evening. The winds will veer southwesterly as the low pressure system tracks northwards over western parts of the country. Flooding is threatened due to potentially heavy falls of rain and very high seas. Top temperatures of 15 to 19 degrees. Additional Note: At present, the strongest and most damaging winds are now forecasted to affect Munster and south Leinster, particularly the southwest, south and Irish Sea coasts with the heaviest rainfall accumulations in Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. There are likely to be changes to the warnings which will be updated later this morning, pending the latest up to date guidance. This is an evolving situation and your patience is appreciated.

JCX BXC

Very very very unlikely that Knock won't be affected.

Being honest, once the TAF's roll out tomorrow evening I can see airlines like Stobart just cancelling vast areas of there network.

sparrowcar

Some mainland European airlines with first wave departures out of DUB looking at cancellations tomorrow morning already.

Protecting their crews and schedule it seems.

I'll update once I've confirmation.

JCX BXC

sparrowcar wrote: »

Some mainland European airlines with first wave departures out of DUB looking at cancellations tomorrow morning already.

Protecting their crews and schedule it seems.

I'll update once I've confirmation.

Really? Forecasts look fine up to 7am.

sparrowcar

JCX BXC wrote: »

Really? Forecasts look fine up to 7am.

That's what I told them.
They don't want to take a chance their crew or a/c get stuck here imagine.

JCX BXC

sparrowcar wrote: »

That's what I told them.
They don't want to take a chance their crew or a/c get stuck here imagine.

I suppose they'll be waiting for the 11:00 UTC TAF to roll out before making decisions.

sparrowcar

JCX BXC wrote: »

I suppose they'll be waiting for the 11:00 UTC TAF to roll out before making decisions.

Correct

Irish Steve

The bigger worry is that the forecast winds have the potential to damage aircraft on the ground, so even if they get here, the problem will be how to get the aircraft to a place of safety if the flight is cancelled, there is not enough hangar space at Dublin to accommodate even a fraction of the numbers that could need protecting.

All aircraft will be at risk, there's no way to tie down the larger aircraft, and smaller ATR size aircraft will have to be flown to an airport that's outside the area of high winds, which for Monday will mean outside of Ireland and the west of the UK. As an example, the front doors of a 737 can't be safely operated in gusts of 50 Kts, and the forecast at present is for over double that figure, so if an aircraft does manage to land, getting the passengers off safely could subsequently be dangerous, the only way to do so will be to find an out of wind area for offloading, which may not be easy.

If this event happens as currently appears possible, there will be massive disruption to schedules, especially at Dublin, but also at the other airports across the country.

lolokeogh

good thread,ill follow this..have some folk flying out tomorrow

JCX BXC

Irish Steve wrote: »

All aircraft will be at risk, there's no way to tie down the larger aircraft, and smaller ATR size aircraft will have to be flown to an airport that's outside the area of high winds, which for Monday will mean outside of Ireland and the west of the UK. As an example, the front doors of a 737 can't be safely operated in gusts of 50 Kts, and the forecast at present is for over double that figure, so if an aircraft does manage to land, getting the passengers off safely could subsequently be dangerous, the only way to do so will be to find an out of wind area for offloading, which may not be easy.

Remember the ATR42 written off in Shannon in 2014 during a 79kt gust?

Gaoth Laidir

Irish Steve wrote: »

The bigger worry is that the forecast winds have the potential to damage aircraft on the ground, so even if they get here, the problem will be how to get the aircraft to a place of safety if the flight is cancelled, there is not enough hangar space at Dublin to accommodate even a fraction of the numbers that could need protecting.

All aircraft will be at risk, there's no way to tie down the larger aircraft, and smaller ATR size aircraft will have to be flown to an airport that's outside the area of high winds, which for Monday will mean outside of Ireland and the west of the UK. As an example, the front doors of a 737 can't be safely operated in gusts of 50 Kts, and the forecast at present is for over double that figure, so if an aircraft does manage to land, getting the passengers off safely could subsequently be dangerous, the only way to do so will be to find an out of wind area for offloading, which may not be easy.

If this event happens as currently appears possible, there will be massive disruption to schedules, especially at Dublin, but also at the other airports across the country.

We won't be getting gusts over 100 knots Steve.

Irish Steve

Current Met.ie orange warning for Monday, which is likely to be upgraded shortly

Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130km/h are expected,

UK weather sources are suggesting gusts of over 90 Miles per hour.

Life would be so much easier if we were all using the same measurement system, but that's the way it is. Whatever, the issue that's uppermost is that with the winds that are likely to happen, there will be significant cancellations and diversions on Monday.

The wind direction is also a factor, as it is forecast to be coming from directions that are not normal, Dublin is very much open to the South East, which is being shown as the predominant direction for the afternoon, then swinging through South before becoming more westerly. That will mean regular changes of runway, which is also disruptive, especially when runway 16 is in use.

Digging around, I was reminded of an issue at Dublin many years ago when working on the ramp, an EM145 had to be moved to a different stand, as the wind coming from behind the aircraft went above the limits for the aircraft, and there was a potential for tail control surface damage if it wasn't moved to a nose into wind stand.

NH2013

Irish Steve wrote: »

Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130km/h are expected

UK weather sources are suggesting gusts of over 90 Miles per hour.

Life would be so much easier if we were all using the same measurement system, but that's the way it is. Whatever, the issue that's uppermost is that with the winds that are likely to happen, there will be significant cancellations and diversions on Monday.

Divide KMPH by 1.852 to get in in knots, or for rough work divide by 2, so even gusts of 130kmph should only be about 60kts-70knts, quite disruptive but no where near 100kts winds which would be hurricane force.

lfc200

Wonder will airlines be cancelling the morning departures from ORK, DUB and SNN? Possibility that the return flights mightn’t get back in, so rather than crew and aircraft stopped in AMS,LHR etc would they just cancel first wave departures?

Nibs05

Remember there is also the safe wind speed at which it's unsafe for staff to work outside on the ramp.

retalivity

Im in incheon airport, in Korea, about to board a flight back to dublin via China and Amsterdam. The last leg is with KLM at 8am tmoro morn, and they've just informed me via text amd email its been cancelled, and will let me know soon on what they will do with me. Presumably its due to the storm, and I won't know what the situatiom is til i arrive in schiphol...

sparrowcar

DUB


BECMG 1612/1615 16033G50KT

TEMPO 1613/1618 17042G60KT

BECMG 1618/1620 21030G45KT

BECMG 1621/1624 24030G45KT

BECMG 1700/1703 24022G35KT

BECMG 1704/1707 25018G30KT

JCX BXC

sparrowcar wrote: »

DUB


BECMG 1612/1615 16033G50KT

TEMPO 1613/1618 17042G60KT

BECMG 1618/1620 21030G45KT

BECMG 1621/1624 24030G45KT

BECMG 1700/1703 24022G35KT

BECMG 1704/1707 25018G30KT

That's issued very far in advance! I only have it issued until 1pm tomorrow.

12pm TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) issued. Makes for some fun reading! (If you're a duck.... maybe)

Dublin

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 12015G26KT
BECMG 1610/1612 16025G35KT

Decoded
9am-11am, wind 120 degrees (E) 15kts gusting to 26kts
11am-1pm wind 160 degrees (SE) 25kts gusting to 35kts

Shannon

Regular
BECMG 1605/1607 06025G35KT
BECMG 1609/1612 12035G55KT

Decoded
6am-8am, wind 060 degrees (NE) 25G35KT
9am-12pm wind 120 degrees (E) 35G55KT

Cork

Regular
BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT
BECMG 1607/1609 17030G45KT
BECMG 1609/1611 17040G60KT

Decoded
4am-7am wind 070 degrees (NE) 20kts gusting 30kts
8am-10am wind 170 degrees (S) 30kts gusting to 45kts
10am-12pm wind 170 degrees (S) 40kts gusting to 60kts

Knock

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 08025G35KT
BECMG 1610/1612 12030G40KT

Decoded
9am-11am wind 080 degrees (E) 25kts gusting to 35kts
11am- 1pm wind 120 degrees (E) 30kts gusting to 40kts

*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

I'd expect morning departures to get off without issue from Dublin, possibly Shannon. Cork may be okay as the forecast wind is not a crosswind for a period.

BZ

There is a large amount of ex Monarch and Air Berlin aircraft parked out on the airfield in Shannon at the moment. The lessors must be concerned with the current forecast predictions.

sparrowcar

JCX BXC wrote: »

That's issued very far in advance! I only have it issued until 1pm tomorrow.

12pm TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) issued. Makes for some fun reading! (If you're a duck.... maybe)

Dublin

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 12015G26KT
BECMG 1610/1612 16025G35KT

Decoded
9am-11am, wind 120 degrees (E) 15kts gusting to 26kts
11am-1pm wind 160 degrees (SE) 25kts gusting to 35kts

Shannon

Regular
BECMG 1605/1607 06025G35KT
BECMG 1609/1612 12035G55KT

Decoded
6am-8am, wind 060 degrees (NE) 25G35KT
9am-12pm wind 120 degrees (E) 35G55KT

Cork

Regular
BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT
BECMG 1607/1609 17030G45KT
BECMG 1609/1611 17040G60KT

Decoded
4am-7am wind 070 degrees (NE) 20kts gusting 30kts
8am-10am wind 170 degrees (S) 30kts gusting to 45kts
10am-12pm wind 170 degrees (S) 40kts gusting to 60kts

Knock

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 08025G35KT
BECMG 1610/1612 12030G40KT

Decoded
9am-11am wind 080 degrees (E) 25kts gusting to 35kts
11am- 1pm wind 120 degrees (E) 30kts gusting to 40kts

*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

I'd expect morning departures to get off without issue from Dublin, possibly Shannon. Cork may be okay as the forecast wind is not a crosswind for a period.

It's an internal weather advisory for airlines from met through the DAA.

Mebuntu

BZ wrote: »

There is a large amount of ex Monarch and Air Berlin aircraft parked out on the airfield in Shannon at the moment. The lessors must be concerned with the current forecast predictions.

Is there a specific wind limit for each commercial aircraft type that dictates whether or not they should be left parked in the path of an upcoming hurricane or Tropical storm?

flashforward

When will the likes of Aer Lingus let passengers know about cancellations tomorrow?

Have a flight to Amsterdam at 13.40 tomorrow.

Will it be a case of arrive, hope and see?

Frank Jnr

flashforward wrote: »

When will the likes of Aer Lingus let passengers know about cancellations tomorrow?

Have a flight to Amsterdam at 13.40 tomorrow.

Will it be a case of arrive, hope and see?

KLM have cancelled all their flights from Dublin tomorrow, with the exception of one, the very first one: https://www.klm.com/travel/ie_en/prepare_for_travel/up_to_date/arrivals_departures/index.htm

Have seen nothing from Aer Lingus yet though.

lfc200

Aer Lingus twitter saying no cancellations yet but are monitoring the situation. They’ll only end up cancelling flights tomorrow morning I’d say

JCX BXC

lfc200 wrote: »

Aer Lingus twitter saying no cancellations yet but are monitoring the situation. They’ll only end up cancelling flights tomorrow morning I’d say

Stobart will have to looking at forecasts, I'd say they'll be this evening.

lfc200

JCX BXC wrote: »

Stobart will have to looking at forecasts, I'd say they'll be this evening.

You’d hope so but nothing would surprise me

NH2013

lfc200 wrote: »

Aer Lingus twitter saying no cancellations yet but are monitoring the situation. They’ll only end up cancelling flights tomorrow morning I’d say

Typical Aer Lingus style in these sort of events, 2 years ago in one of the storms Ryanair and Stobart cancelled pretty much their whole days flying out of Dublin due to the storm force weather but Aer Lingus kept trying to carry on as normal with diversions, go-arounds, people being stranded in airports across the UK and Ireland, little information being given out and then aircraft totally out of place to recover the schedule the next day.

I know they don't want to overreact and cancel a load of flights incase it doesn't turn out to be as bad as some of the forcasts plan, but surely just pre-empting things and by proactively cancelling flights they'd be in a better position to recover the schedule when it calms down on Tuesday?

I am aware though that the A320 has better crosswind limits when it comes to wet/contaminated runways than the 737-800, but they can't be all that much better, and while locally based Aer Lingus pilots may well be used to the intricacies of Dublin Airport in the wind, with the wind gusting 60+kts from the southwest right over the Wicklow Mountains, no ones going anywhere, it just all seems badly thought out and reactionary as opposed to a proactive plan that other airlines serving Dublin seem to be taking at the moment like KLM.

CoisFharraige

All depends on the crossword component anyway, which changes every 2 bloody minutes. Tomorrow is showing a strong yet perfectly operational headwind for 16 (160 degrees then 170) before going southwesterly and sitting around the limits. I imagine it'll be a lot of waiting at the holds and jumping for departure with wind read outs every transmission! But likely too strong for most aircraft as the day goes on.

NH2013

NH2013 wrote: »

Typical Aer Lingus style in these sort of events, 2 years ago in one of the storms Ryanair and Stobart cancelled pretty much their whole days flying out of Dublin due to the storm force weather but Aer Lingus kept trying to carry on as normal with diversions, go-arounds, people being stranded in airports across the UK and Ireland, little information being given out and then aircraft totally out of place to recover the schedule the next day.

I know they don't want to overreact and cancel a load of flights incase it doesn't turn out to be as bad as some of the forcasts plan, but surely just pre-empting things and by proactively cancelling flights they'd be in a better position to recover the schedule when it calms down on Tuesday?

I am aware though that the A320 has better crosswind limits when it comes to wet/contaminated runways than the 737-800, but they can't be all that much better, and while locally based Aer Lingus pilots may well be used to the intricacies of Dublin Airport in the wind, with the wind gusting 60+kts from the southwest right over the Wicklow Mountains, no ones going anywhere, it just all seems badly thought out and reactionary as opposed to a proactive plan that other airlines serving Dublin seem to be taking at the moment like KLM.

Hold on, only KLM have actually cancelled flights yet you’ve jumped on Aer Lingus because they havent. The Aviation weather for after 1300L hasn’t even been published yet.

NH2013

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hold on, only KLM have actually cancelled flights yet you’ve jumped on Aer Lingus because they havent. The Aviation weather for after 1300L hasn’t even been published yet.

Okay, perhaps not time yet to cancel for tomorrow, I might have jumped the gun a little, but as a general observation on their handling of forecast bad weather events my comment holds.