Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

Zzippy

Have we any idea how big a tidal surge we might get? Galway had a short-lived surge of ~1.6m above HT on Monday with Ophelia, anything like that around HT on Saturday could result in flooding around Spanish Arch, as the tide is ~45cm higher than Monday.

leahyl

Wind is really beginning to pick up at the moment - of course I would find any wind strong seeing as I wasn’t here for Ophelia :-P it’s prob just a light breeze to everyone else!

pjohnson

Does level two start to become a danger to public transport?

JCX BXC

gozunda wrote: »

I have already gave detail on that - yes it was omitted during Darwin, Orphelia and only upgraded to Red shortly before the entire county was

If you wish to put the case forward for Co Clare - please do so - however it remains that as a county - Limerick is geographicaly sandwiched between Cork Kerry and Clare the county regularly experiences severe weather systems due to its location in the South West. That is a fact evidenced by warnings only latterly applied despite evident misconceptions / imaginings about what the weather may be like compared to other random spots on the map ...

You can't complain about Ophelia whatsoever considering it was upgraded to RED, and with good notice (day before)

Yet, you're comparing it to Kerry, Clare and Galway, when I've clearly explained how Limerick is NOT at an exposed coastal location like the other counties.

JCX BXC

pjohnson wrote: »

Does level two start to become a danger to public transport?

Not normally no.

Remember we get several oranges warnings each year, is there mass disruption every year?

Sephiroth_dude

Power better not go again, 24hrs without it was enough!

sjb25

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

Power better not go again, 24hrs without it was enough!

Aw god love you and your 24hours mine still not back

__..__

sjb25 wrote: »

Aw god love you and your 24hours mine still not back

My lights flickered for minute. And that was bad enough.

RobertKK

gozunda wrote: »

I noticed once again that ME have omitted Co limerick from the Orange Alert despite being squarely sandwiched between Cork, Kerry & Clare

It's not like weather systems can decide arbitrarily to tiptoe around and not effect any of the county whatsoever ...

In Storm Darwin Co Limerick was omitted from the Red Alert - Only to be included at the last minute whilst the storm was raging. My postman narrowly avoided bring killed at the height of this storm as he made a call on the forecast given

Ditto Orphelia- Co Limerick was only upgraded shortly before the entire country went to Red

I'm getting a bit tired of looking at the forecast and having to second guess and having to ignore forecasts due to the narrow delimitation by rather arbitary county borders ...

Same in Kilkenny, miracle no one was killed during the storm.

sjb25

__..__ wrote: »

My lights flickered for minute. And that was bad enough.

Lol try no electricity or water since 14.00 Monday getting a bit of pain now

getting great value from my leisure centre membership tho for showers

gozunda

JCX BXC wrote: »

You can't complain about Ophelia whatsoever considering it was upgraded to RED, and with good notice (day before)

Yet, you're comparing it to Kerry, Clare and Galway, when I've clearly explained how Limerick is NOT at an exposed coastal location like the other counties.

Limerick was upgraded only a short time before they pulled down the warning for the entire country.

Btw I have NOT compared Limerick to Galway. You are obviously missing the point that the county lies smack bang in the middle of Cork / Kerry / Clare and is in the path of severe weather conditions coming from the Southwest

And I have explained in detail how its geophysical location means that it experiences the same weather systems (frequently exacerbated by local conditions). It remains that the country as in Darwin and other servere weather systems only gets upgraded at the last moment. Something that at least was acknowledged by ME after the event ...

I see you are at least having a relatively dry day ...

JCX BXC

gozunda wrote: »

And I have explained in detail how its geophysical location means that it experiences the same weather systems (frequently exacerbated by local conditions). It remains that the country as in Darwin and other servere weather systems only gets upgraded at the last moment. Something that at least was acknowledged by ME after the event ...

I see you are at least having a relatively dry day ...

Same weather systems yes, however not at the same intensity. It would be downright strange to say that an inland county has the same wind speeds as a coastal area.

Also, relatively dry day? Really? I'm at 25.4mm at the moment. I do however have a theory that the formation of the peninsula seems to cause alot of the rain to lose intensity and the more intense rain to go north and south of West Clare. Could be entirely wrong, but it's a theory.

Danish Dude

Storm 10 wrote: »

Should boards not go orange as well

WHY would boards go orange .????? no need for it

George Sunsnow

Very wet and miserable in Arklow all day since about 10 am
More to come with Brian and wind
Plenty complaints

Mooooo

Wind picking up in cork.last 2 hours, reports of trees knocked around bandon this evening, more to do with their protection being taken by Ophelia I presume than strength of wind.

gozunda

JCX BXC wrote: »

Same weather systems yes, however not at the same intensity. It would be downright strange to say that an inland county has the same wind speeds as a coastal area.

You really have failed to understand that ME has had to upgrade the County on at least two recent events. So YES it does experience similar intensity to adjacent areas in the SOUTHWEST.

As shown it is no more Inland than adjacent other counties if you a actually consult a map. Forget about inbuilt bias based on a county viewpoint and look at its geophysical location.

JCX BXC wrote: »

Also, relatively dry day? Really? I'm at 25.4mm at the moment. I do however have a theory that the formation of the peninsula seems to cause alot of the rain to lose intensity and the more intense rain to go north and south of West Clare. Could be entirely wrong, but it's a theory.

Yes I posted and also saw your report on the rainfall thread. I see you reported no real flooding. Good for you.

JCX BXC

Look, I'm going to bow out, I feel I've explained the reasoning fairly well, you can form your own opinion. I won't be getting personal.

nagdefy

sjb25 wrote: »

Lol try no electricity or water since 14.00 Monday getting a bit of pain now

getting great value from my leisure centre membership tho for showers

Same here. Electricity due back at 10pm tomorrow night. Hardship getting water to cattle aswell as the day to day stuff.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z

Looking through the models the AEGEGE is a good representative of wind speeds I think.

Looks like we are going to have very strong winds here on the Kerry coast.

Mean




Gust



Gusts

George Sunsnow

Regarding Limerick
Issuing a warning is based on available guidance at the time of issuance
If conditions are not likely to be at warning level in limerick (perhaps because it has terrain to its north south and east meaning it can only really be hit from due west) then it doesn’t get the alert
If guidance changes for the worse past the threshold it does

It’s that simple

Meteorite58

Danish Dude wrote: »

WHY would boards go orange .????? no need for it

MOD NOTE : Read the forum Charter especially no 5 No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Gaoth Laidir

This thing will bomb 41 hPa in 24 hours which must be near some sort of record. At its latitude of around 46N the definition of a bomb is only a 20-hPa drop in 24 hours, so it's twice that (a double bomb or 2 Bergerons).

Meteorite58

This system is going to give some very strong winds especially along Atlantic coastal counties and more so on coasts and high ground. Possibility of big convective gusts I would think on Fri Night /Sat . Will be watching for straight line winds and reports of torrential downpours and perhaps some hail and thundery showers. Feeling very cold in the NW'ly wind on Sat.



Lucky it stopped deepening and spun out of the jet before it got to us

Reckless Abandonment

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This thing will bomb 41 hPa in 24 hours which must be near some sort of record. At its latitude of around 46N the definition of a bomb is only a 20-hPa drop in 24 hours, so it's twice that (a double bomb or 2 Bergerons).

Careful now. All we need is the daily star reading that and we'll have "DOUBLE WEATHER BOMB TO DISTROY ENGLAND" but somehow miss Ireland on the way. ..

DOCARCH

Mod Note: @Gaoth Laidir and @George Sunsnow I have edited/deleted posts. Not allowing this thread be derailed with debate on ME warnings. There has been quite said/debated elsewhere.

froog

"brutal tactical nuclear weather napalm bomb to brutalize Ireland with no regard for human life"

sumtings

JCX BXC wrote: »

Same weather systems yes, however not at the same intensity. It would be downright strange to say that an inland county has the same wind speeds as a coastal area.

Also, relatively dry day? Really? I'm at 25.4mm at the moment. I do however have a theory that the formation of the peninsula seems to cause alot of the rain to lose intensity and the more intense rain to go north and south of West Clare. Could be entirely wrong, but it's a theory.

I feel Limerick city has a wierd quirk with regards rain compared to around it, no proof just a feeling from experience.


Wonder what the end of the storm will be like for us

gozunda

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Regarding Limerick
Issuing a warning is based on available guidance at the time of issuance
If conditions are not likely to be at warning level in limerick (perhaps because it has terrain to its north south and east meaning it can only really be hit from due west) then it doesn’t get the alert
If guidance changes for the worse past the threshold it does It’s that simple

Thanks for your thoughts - however Weather is never that simple. Look I wont bog this down - however to summarize for the very last time - it remains that Co Limerick lies the direct path of weather systems coming from the South and West / Southwest due to its geophysical location and is prone to a double whammy being bang in the middle of Cork/ Kerry/ Clare.

Despite beliefs to the contrary it also has an exposed coastal zone. ME acknowledged that the forecast for the county during Darwin was underrated and they only updated when the actual storm was active and that was well past the period of guidance ... That is the point. End of.

Spanish Eyes

A little bit off topic, sorry mods,

But could those without electricity tell us what they wish they had prepared for, and what they miss most with no power. We know the obvious things, but real time experience might help others in another event.

gozunda

The six o'clock weather on RTE was rather vague on the landfall/ timeline of storm Brian. I.e. sometime Friday/ Saturday Night. Any better forecast on the storms likely progress anywhere atm?