Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

tritriagain

Would like to learn more about reading weather charts. Is there any websites, books etc people could recommend for a complete novice.

Meteorite58

tritriagain wrote: »

Would like to learn more about reading weather charts. Is there any websites, books etc people could recommend for a complete novice.

Plenty to go through there

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/142


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

Akrasia

tritriagain wrote: »

Would like to learn more about reading weather charts. Is there any websites, books etc people could recommend for a complete novice.

If you genuinely want to know , just ask on here. No genuine question will go un-answered.

Actually, most of the regulars here love the chance to teach people

irishfeen

https://twitter.com/rossgtwn/status/920031103599202304

This Is probably the same model you guys and girls are using - this is from the Weather Nerwork in Canada.

pjohnson

irishfeen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rossgtwn/status/920031103599202304

This Is probably the same model you guys and girls are using - this is from the Weather Nerwork in Canada.

Very annoying this was made sound like a once of event when its seemingly the new normal. How often do these things form during a storm season?

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/919887780427325440

Sooooo, GFS takes invest 92L and blows it up over Atlantic to sub 960mb low impacting Ireland and southern U.K. by Friday!

worded

I remember hearing years ago global warming would cause ireland to become wetter and windier

Out of curiously do wind farms benefit from these storms? Can the extra energy be saved somehow ?

pjohnson

All these graphs confirming it now is it? This one is far more upsetting than Ophelia. MET Eireann should be speaking. They shouldn't keep people in the dark.

Depressed and off to bed hoping for morning miracle news that this is gone.

highdef

Paully D wrote: »

Oh please God no FFS.

Due to fly out in Europe Friday morning and back Sunday morning. It would serve as a brief respite for what has gone on today and continues to go on.

Praying this doesn't develop.

Where in Europe, considering you are in Europe right now, assuming you are in Ireland that is

Zzippy

pjohnson wrote: »

All these graphs confirming it now is it? This one is far more upsetting than Ophelia. MET Eireann should be speaking. They shouldn't keep people in the dark.

Depressed and off to bed hoping for morning miracle news that this is gone.

1. Nothing confirmed
2. If it is, it won't be as bad as Ophelia
3. Opelia is still impacting the country tonight and you want ME to start warning people about a storm that may not hit us 4-5 days away?
4. Seriously, stop being a drama queen

irishfeen

pjohnson wrote: »

All these graphs confirming it now is it? This one is far more upsetting than Ophelia. MET Eireann should be speaking. They shouldn't keep people in the dark.

Depressed and off to bed hoping for morning miracle news that this is gone.

I presume it is FAR too early yet to definitely forecast this - Met Éireann are there to make very detailed and critical forecasts of major events. You can be sure if this materialises they will let everyone know in plenty of time.

Akrasia

worded wrote: »

I remember hearing years ago global warming would cause ireland to become wetter and windier

Out of curiously do wind farms benefit from these storms? Can the extra energy be saved somehow ?

Wind turbines don't like storms, they usually shut down in high winds. But during moderate winds, we can potentially store excess energy using gravity storage (similar to turlough hill, but instead of pumping water, we could tow very heavy weights up hill and collect the energy when it falls back down)

Magic ]=)

worded wrote: »

Out of curiously do wind farms benefit from these storms? Can the extra energy be saved somehow ?

No. Wind farms shut down for safety reasons during storms.

Akrasia

Zzippy wrote: »

1. Nothing confirmed
2. If it is, it won't be as bad as Ophelia
3. Opelia is still impacting the country tonight and you want ME to start warning people about a storm that may not hit us 4-5 days away?
4. Seriously, stop being a drama queen

I agree, but 2, probably not as windy. But possibly high rainfall. Flooding as a more incideous threat. Its not always as dramatic but can cause devastation for months where it strikes

piuswal

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Thats interesting that they are predicting a second, almost identical looking storm. But the funny thing is they progress completely differently across the Atlantic.

These ones usually (in my experience) head a bit further north with each model run and I think I would prefer that than the current runs.

Thats true for "normal" Atlantic depressions crossing the Atlantic bur Ophelia did not fit into the "normal" category

piuswal

Akrasia wrote: »

I agree, but 2, probably not as windy. But possibly high rainfall. Flooding as a more incideous threat. Its not always as dramatic but can cause devastation for months where it strikes

High rainfall usually associated with slow moving systems rather than fast moving ones.

Rebelbrowser

MJohnston wrote: »

I know this is +120 hours, but these last couple of months have instilled a rather large amount of trust in me for the ECMWF model...but 48 hours will tell us more.

Era just wait til the winter when its predicting a blizzard at 72h only for it to disappear at 24h and all that confidence will be a distant memory!

pauldry

Potentially 130kph winds from this with more fallen trees.

At least if its a Saturday ya can get drunk on the Friday n stay in bed till its gone

MJohnston

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Era just wait til the winter when its predicting a blizzard at 72h only for it to disappear at 24h and all that confidence will be a distant memory!

Right, but I think the conditions for snow are a lot different to tracking low-pressure storms. I'm basing this reputation purely on the results it has showed for most of the hurricane season tracking, not just Ophelia!

Akrasia

piuswal wrote: »

High rainfall usually associated with slow moving systems rather than fast moving ones.

thats true. But there is no good reason to believe that this system won't stall over or near Ireland.

The way the models work, is that they focus on specific seeds, but while they're focusing on a potential hurricane 120 hours away, they''re not always modelling at a hi res, the potential fronts and systems that could be forming on the opposite side

Akrasia

The above is just one reason why climate models are so much less complex than weather models.

Weather is really chaotic, while climate is probabilistic. Weather has to be accurate down to the hour or minute, climate models take away the chaos, and average it out, so we only need to be accurate on a decadal scale.

spookwoman

This the one they are calling Brian?

hatrickpatrick

Well the NHC has downgraded 92L to a 30% chance of developing, wind shear has ramped up a bit around it in the last few hours even though it is apparently trying to established a closed circulation. We'll know by tomorrow whether this becomes a tropical cyclone or not. Probably should have tagged this thread with FI

M.T. Cranium

This would be TD 18 if it gets that designation and Tropical Storm Philippe beyond that. Seems quite possible it would get a name by about Wednesday.

As to how reliable the impact on Ireland might be, some chance of it being further north and more country-wide, and some chance of it either missing to south or being too weak to continue alert pondering, so maybe a one in three chance of a significant event at this point? If the maps verified from earlier today, looks more of a level 2 south coast event with some level 1 further north.

Chance of it becoming a named storm about 50-50 and a hurricane 30%. Might not attain hurricane force winds until extra-tropical stage but this year has been a high performer after a sluggish start, we were at one point sitting at 5 0 0 for the count of tropical storms, hurricanes and majors, and are now 15 10 and 6. So it has been a run of 10 10 6 since August began.

Since 1851, there were only two seasons with 7 majors, 1961 (which got them from 8 hurricanes) and the celebrated (infamous) 2005 which had 15 to work from.

This year joins six others at 6 majors. Those were 1926, 1933, 1950, 1964, 1996, and 2004.

With 10 hurricanes, this year ranks 8th along with seven others; if it makes it to 11 then it will be tied fourth with four others. At 12 it would be tied for second with 1969 and 2010 which both had five majors.

BumperD

It just covered it on the weather channel. Not sure it will matter if it's a named storm or not. It's still west bound when it gets carried across the Atlantic

M.T. Cranium

No it doesn't matter to the weather outcome but for the record it will be eastbound or I'm going to get it instead.

BumperD

Haha it's heading east bound I'm getting confused.

carltonleon

According to NHC it only has a 20% chance of Cyclone formation within the next 48hrs due to strong upper level winds

Duggie2012

jaysus we couldnt cope with another one so soon. stay away

aidanodr

Seems to have been named?? #stormbrian on the twitter machine