Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

fryup

is this it in the middle of the atlantic ? .....

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=50.0;-30.7;4&l=gust

leahyl

Already ramping it up on Facebook saying it’s going to be just like Ophelia....fgs

Cheshire Cat

leahyl wrote: »

Already ramping it up on Facebook saying it’s going to be just like Ophelia....fgs

Probably the same people who reckoned that Ophelia would be a storm in a tea cup.

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/920214527614046208

jumpjack

worded wrote: »

I remember hearing years ago global warming would cause ireland to become wetter and windier

Out of curiously do wind farms benefit from these storms?  Can the extra energy be saved somehow ?

Wind plants must be shut down when wind rises too much, else they burn up!

froog

ah here

Sephiroth_dude

What does 92L mean in the thread name?

VeVeX

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

What does 92L mean in the thread name?

It’s the potential waist and inside leg of the storm.

Sephiroth_dude

VeVeX wrote: »

It’s the potential waist and inside leg of the storm.

92 is bad is it?

Gaoth Laidir

Interesting similarity to the chart for Ophelia.

Simon Gruber Says

Invest is short for investigative area, an area with a potential developing storm. They use the numbers 90-99 to differentiate separate areas, reusing 90 after it gets to 99. And L means it's in the Atlantic.

Akrasia

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

What does 92L mean in the thread name?

It's a designation used by the NHC for a potential tropical depression that needs to be investigated (you'll see it referred to as 'invest 92L')

Once it's designated an invest code, the models will run scenarios based on the likely outcomes from that particular system.

Weather modelling is expensive, and they don't run models for the whole world all the time, they focus on areas of interest and they run forecast models based on those areas that have been identified as potential storms or impactful systems. (as well as modelling for geographic regions as part of the standard weather forecast)

The 9 means something to keep an eye on, the 2 is a placeholder which is recycled from 0 to 9 (ie it goes 90 91 92 93 ... 99 90 91) and the L refers to the basin that the storm is in, L refers to west atlantic, E refers to Eastern Pacific basin

VeVeX

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

92 is bad is it?

It’s a pretty heavy and tall storm.

Donegal Storm

The fact that this storm originates as a tropical system doesn't really mean anything, it doedn't look like it'll amount to much and it'll have long transitioned to a standard Atlantic low pressure system by the time it reaches us.

At the moment it's forecast to track to our south more towards Cornwall and doesn't look like anything more than a typical autumn gale but with trees still in leaf it could obviously cause more disruption

pjohnson

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter? How often can they form?

pauldry

only 80 odd hours away.

Hope it stays South

Friday night/Saturday morning impact

ryanch09

fryup wrote: »

is this it in the middle of the atlantic ? .....

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=50.0;-30.7;4&l=gust

No, that system is meant to reach us around thursday but will mostly affect the UK and not as bad. If you set ventusky to Thursday night you'll see it west of Spain

Duggie2012

how bad is this one likely to be?

Paully D

MT's forecast today is a bit of a relief re: this one.

Nettle Soup

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm Saturday.

GhostyMcGhost

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm.

when?

Honestly, its certainly not a when... Its a big IF.... Hasn't even formed yet (NHC give it less than 40% chance). Even IF it forms the path it could take has so many variables. It could f**k off up to greenland at this point for all anyone knows.

Its impossible to even try giving a time

Don't believe everything you read on fakebook

Kermit.de.frog

Latest GFS



Mean wind speeds



Gusts



No need for concern at the moment but definitely needs to be watched.

Sephiroth_dude

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

It could f**k off up to greenland at this point for all anyone knows.

Hopefully it will


sorry Greenland

Gaoth Laidir

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm Saturday.

The NHC are aware of your hurling match and have the Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to penetrate the storm for you should it develop further.

Falcon L

We've lost power in the south east since yesterday morning. No cell service either. I hope this thing doesn't get formed, or buggers off somewhere else. I've had enough roaring wind to last me a while.

sryanbruen

pjohnson wrote: »

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter? How often can they form?

[Mod Snip]
There's a thread for Winter 2017/18 where I've gone through pretty much all my methodology and continue to do so coming up to the season.

511

pjohnson wrote: »

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter?

None. Tropical storms generally don't like Winter.

sryanbruen

ryanch09 wrote: »

No, that system is meant to reach us around thursday but will mostly affect the UK and not as bad. If you set ventusky to Thursday night you'll see it west of Spain

It has the potential to bring spot flooding to places on Thursday, Met Éireann said.

MidMan25

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The NHC are aware of your hurling match and have the Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to penetrate the storm for you should it develop further.

Well done, he's U14

redsteveireland

The tabloids are having a field day. They have people convinced that this will be worse than ex-Ophelia.