Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

pauldry

No it wont be.

Ophelia was unique in lots of ways....too lazy to type them

This will be a storm of 130 to 140kph gusts at worst

Where it hits no one knows yet

ryanch09

The possible cyclone has vanished from the NHC charts

GhostyMcGhost

redsteveireland wrote: »

The tabloids are having a field day. They have people convinced that this will be worse than ex-Ophelia.

It’s gone. Papers can write front page story about Galway hurling now

Kermit.de.frog

ryanch09 wrote: »

The possible cyclone has vanished from the NHC charts

It's gone as a tropical cyclone potential. The storm itself is still going to develop allbeit over the colder north Atlantic.

carltonleon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's gone as a tropical cyclone potential. The storm itself is still going to develop allbeit over the colder north Atlantic.

I am a newbie to all this but does that mean that it would not be quite as powerful as if would not be feeding off warmer waters ?

John.Icy

pauldry wrote: »

No it wont be.

Ophelia was unique in lots of ways....too lazy to type them

This will be a storm of 130 to 140kph gusts at worst

Where it hits no one knows yet

130kph to 140kph is a fair bit worse than the majority of Ireland saw yesterday?

But yeah, this is no Ophelia scenario but I imagine tabloid land don't mind too much.

Irish Steve

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

sryanbruen

ECMWF 00z for Saturday showing the low making inroads across Ireland. Looking quite stormy but not as stormy as Ophelia with about a 5 to 10mb drop in 24 hours. The required threshold for a weather bomb or explosive cyclogenesis is 21mb in 24 hours. My thoughts on the suggested winds going by the synoptics yesterday of 50-60mph are the same today, no different.

sunny2004

can the name of the storm be added to the title to prevent confusion with other storms ??

sryanbruen

sunny2004 wrote: »

can the name of the storm be added to the title to prevent confusion with other storms ??

But there is no name for it yet, if there even will be.

Donegal Storm

Irish Steve wrote: »

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

The storm is still forecast to form, the fact that it originates from a tropical disturbance has little meaning other than making it seem more dramatic. Still needs to be watched in case it does track further north as often does happen with these systems

Hooter23

The thing is if this potential storm does upgrade in strength before its reaches us it will go more north toward ireland...

spookwoman

on the uk forecasts they said they dont know yet but looking at their predictions Waterford and SE will get hit.

IRCA

I blame ventusky - anything that looks like a swirly mass is being flagged as a potential hurricane - nice toy but can be misleading to those who don't know better (me included!)

sryanbruen

The GFS 12z shows a more rapid intensification than the 06z:

ninebeanrows

Well the system does look threatening but looking at all guidance available it appears to mature south of Ireland with an expanding but less extreme wind-field and decreasing threat of any sting-jet type wind event.

butrasgali

I have a question about yesterday and future days..is an employee who was available for his work but the company closed its doors yesterday entitled to get paid for the day or can any of ye tell me what is the official stance
Ta

DOCARCH

butrasgali wrote: »

I have a question about yesterday and future days..is an employee who was available for his work but the company closed its doors yesterday entitled to get paid for the day or can any of ye tell me what is the official stance
Ta

Mod Note: Really not sure you are going to get answer here? This is a weather forum!

Reckless Abandonment

DOCARCH wrote: »

Mod Note: Really not sure you are going to get answer here? This is a weather forum!

Got this one doc.
Yes. Wasn't the staffs fault he/she didn't work.

But back to the weather

M.T. Cranium

GFS and GEM 12z very similar track, timing and intensity ...

Would expect moderate SE winds late Friday backing to east, heavy rain across the south, 20-40 mm potential, somewhat less windy as the low skims along the south coast (strong northeast spreading further north) then all regions backing rapidly to moderate northwest for Saturday.

Strong winds would hit south Wales and southwest England on this track.

Still time for this track to lift further north, decreasing chances of this being a named tropical storm at any time but it could happen (north of Bermuda before it gets too far north of 42N).

Akrasia

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Got this one doc.
Yes. Wasn't the staffs fault he/she didn't work.

But back to the weather

Storm Force Majeure

smallgarden

IRCA wrote: »

I blame ventusky - anything that looks like a swirly mass is being flagged as a potential hurricane - nice toy but can be misleading to those who don't know better (me included!)

Based on Ventusky I wouldn't fancy being in Japan next week

Meteorite58

Latest ECMWF

850 hPa










GFS very similar, downgraded a bit in wind strength the last couple of runs. Strongest winds staying off shore atm, but these kind of tracks can change very easily although holding quite consistent the last few runs.

Autochange

Irish Steve wrote: »

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

Some folk are bricking it because Mary over the road read about it on the Sun.

froog

came across this earlier, you have to laugh. classic tabloid stuff.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/867455/Storm-Brian-UK-weather-forecast-weather-bomb-Friday-Met-Office-BBC

Worried forecasters fear another violent tempest, which could potentially be the second storm of the season, Storm Brian, will unleash chaos similar to Ophelia’s 100mph onslaught this week.

Terrifying weather charts show a churning 80mph cyclone hurtling towards the UK with landfall expected late Friday into Saturday.

Fierce gales brewing in the Atlantic are poised to tear across Ireland and smash the southwest coast of Britain in a near carbon copy of Ophelia.

mickger844posts

Models are surprisingly in relative agreement on its track. If it went further North it could cause problems with so many trees weakened by Ophelia.

Samaris

The Express just don't feel it's been a good day unless they can use a headline with WORLD WAR THREE! in it.

"Storm Brian forms in Atlantic: UK superstorm alert as huge WEATHER BOMB to hit on FRIDAY."

They did like "weather bomb" though.

nagdefy

This one needs a bit of watching. One of those sneaky systems that could track further north. Also we're kind of taking a breather after Ophelia has passed.

sdanseo

The only part of this thread anyone in the media now cares about (and it isn't without some concern, Hurricane Force is still Hurricane Force):

Gaoth Laidir

Can someone please change the title of this thread to remove all reference to tropical systems?