Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

pad199207

nagdefy wrote: »

This one needs a bit of watching. One of those sneaky systems that could track further north. Also we're kind of taking a breather after Ophelia has passed.

I’ve a feeling it probably will

Gaoth Laidir

GFS showing 60 knots come Friday/Saturday.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=avnowind&storm_identifier=AL922017&starting_image=2017AL92_AVNOWIND_201710170000

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z 17-10-17

Could pack a punch especially here in Kerry.


Mean




Gusts

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z quite similar.

Mean





Gusts

sdanseo

Not even a yellow warning in Kerry for wind. Needs 90km/h. Maybe rain.

A little wild in the Scilly Isles. 26hrs straight with >80km/h gusts and 8-9 hrs with >100km/h.

Autochange

Non event by the look of things so far

allthedoyles

Heavy rain all day Thursday seems likely in the SE.

JCX BXC

sdanseo wrote: »

Not even a yellow warning in Kerry for wind. Needs 90km/h. Maybe rain.

A little wild in the Scilly Isles. 26hrs straight with >80km/h gusts and 8-9 hrs with >100km/h.

Did I not see 90/100km/h gusts on that map? It's moving fast, but fairly sure I saw that.

sdanseo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Did I not see 90/100km/h gusts on that map? It's moving fast, but fairly sure I saw that.

Static version: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/3h.htm

Autochange

Autochange wrote: »

Non event by the look of things so far

Weren't you saying before the storm yesterday that it was a non event?

Autochange

Deleted User wrote: »

Weren't you saying before the storm yesterday that it was a non event?

I may have said something along those lines and i was wrong. Looking at the above maps this one looks like a non event. So far.

Do you feel different about it? Or was your question your total input?

Meteorite58

A wet weekend ( inc. Thursday ) also in store, possibly quite wet in the SW, S, SE with possible high accumulations by Sunday

Possible accumulations Up until Sunday / models differ in this. Just a guide at this stage, GFS not showing as much.

MJohnston

Autochange wrote: »

I may have said something along those lines and i was wrong. Looking at the above maps this one looks like a non event. So far.

Do you feel different about it? Or was your question your total input?

You're overhyping things - this had the potential to be an event, but the models have changed slightly and now it's going to be a typical winter storm.

I guess there are a lot of new posters to this Weather forum, but it is the case that most interesting weather systems that are tracking towards Ireland in model forecasts get their own threads here. The regular posters here are well aware of the low probabilities inherent in predictions at 120 hour timeframes, but that doesn't stop us discussion the model runs and making predictions of our own.

If something is more probable than not to seriously affect Ireland, there will be a Level 1/2/3 warning listed in the thread title.

It would be worth any new posters maybe taking this all into account before getting too anxious or upset about threads in this subforum.

Autochange

MJohnston wrote: »

You're overhyping things - this had the potential to be an event, but the models have changed slightly and now it's going to be a typical winter storm.

I guess there are a lot of new posters to this Weather forum, but it is the case that most interesting weather systems that are tracking towards Ireland in model forecasts get their own threads here. The regular posters here are well aware of the low probabilities inherent in predictions at 120 hour timeframes, but that doesn't stop us discussion the model runs and making predictions of our own.

If something is more probable than not to seriously affect Ireland, there will be a Level 1/2/3 warning listed in the thread title.

It would be worth any new posters maybe taking this all into account before getting too anxious or upset about threads in this subforum.

Calling it a non event would be the opposite of over hyping it wouldn't it?
I think you may have gotten a little mixed up going over the posts. All good.

MJohnston

Autochange wrote: »

Calling it a non event would be the opposite of over hyping it wouldn't it?
I think you may have gotten a little mixed up going over the posts. All good.

I'll be overly pedantic because I enjoy it: hyping is the exaggeration of reality, and saying "non event" is exaggerating in two ways - (1) nobody is claiming this as a major event (2) while it's not a major event, it's also not a non-event either.

tl;dr - I do think what you're doing is creating hype, just not "positive" hype.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Points made now time to move it on please .

Autochange

Fair enough. Iv only ever heard the expression "hyping up" before never to hype something down. It is a non event as in comparison to our recent one is what i was referring to.
Peace.

Akrasia

The Oceans are warm, I think we'll have plenty more events and non events before the year is out

There is a value in highlighting potential weather systems. While there is uncertainty these discussions are important. But it's not a competition to see who 'predicts' the outcome first.

For me, the 'winners' of these threads are the people who use their knowledge to inform and educate and not those who 'call' the outcome while there is still a lot of uncertainty.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

piuswal

sdanseo wrote: »

Not even a yellow warning in Kerry for wind. Needs 90km/h. Maybe rain.

A little wild in the Scilly Isles. 26hrs straight with >80km/h gusts and 8-9 hrs with >100km/h.

from;

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/news.php?lang=en_UK

The website offers a universally understood system using symbols and colour-coded maps with the latest warnings of expected severe weather over most of Europe for the next 24 and 48 hours. Wherever you are in Europe, clear, concise information will help you plan your travel, or any activity vulnerable to severe weather. Where, for example, might severe thunder and heavy rain cause flooding; what is the risk of an avalanche; might fog delay flights; and will hot, dry weather increase the risk of forest fires? Each region in the various countries is colour-coded on the map to represent four levels of warning: red to indicate exceptional risk from dangerous weather conditions, down through orange and yellow to green, indicating that severe weather is not expected. The site offers also a greyscale map for colour-blind people.

Cantona's Collars

BBC weather just now giving the system to skirt south of Ireland and it will impact just Southern coasts as it hits the UK. They did say that this track may change as it still has to cross the Atlantic.

Another system to follow next week.

Rikand

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest ECMWF

850 hPa

That's a meaty looking storm heading for Greenland!

Dank Janniels

Only Jeremy Kyle guests read the Daily Express!

M.T. Cranium

The trend on all models is northward with the low tracking into Munster and across the inland south Friday night into Saturday morning.

Thread would be well served with a level one tag again and current guidance suggests level two may materialize on the south coast.

Would say 80-110 km/hr winds at least. This pushes the heavier rain a bit further north also, from Clare to Dublin/Meath.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thread would be well served with a level one tag again....

Done.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Hi I am due to arrive in dublin airport at about 6.30 pm on fri evening do you think this wind event will affect my flight? Sorry for the question but any info would be appreciated

carltonleon

Just a quick word of thanks for all the info over the last 10 days or so.
I am not well up on all of the weather expertise that a lot of you have but I do enjoy reading the threads and they are always very informative (for the most part anyway LOL) and it is much appreciated that you all take the time to impart your knowledge. I have had 3 people tell me that we are being hit by another hurricane this Fri/Sat so armed with the knowledge gleaned from here I was able to put them right ..... Thanks Again

Clonmel1000

carltonleon wrote: »

Just a quick word of thanks for all the info over the last 10 days or so.
I am not well up on all of the weather expertise that a lot of you have but I do enjoy reading the threads and they are always very informative (for the most part anyway LOL) and it is much appreciated that you all take the time to impart your knowledge. I have had 3 people tell me that we are being hit by another hurricane this Fri/Sat so armed with the knowledge gleaned from here I was able to put them right ..... Thanks Again

That knowledge also available on met Éireann too but where is this nonsense about next weekend emanating from? Haven’t read through this thread and am not on fb etc so I take it it’s coming from there or tabloids.

Meteorite58

Yes picked up a notch the last run. Strong blustery belts of squally wind and rain.

Mean




Gusts




Projected rain accumulatons between now and Sun am

Samaris

Guess storm season is here!

Just want to add my thanks too. I'm interested in weather, but always struggled with the maps. Picked up a lot (which I've probably misunderstood admittedly) from here and attempting to prod models myself to see if I can start to figure this stuff out too :P So thanks for galvanizing that interest also!