Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

lucernarian

I think a nationwide red warning was justified simply because so many agree with it. The purpose of these warnings are to advise the general public. If there was a widespread perception that it was exaggerated or a false alarm, then it would undermine public confidence in a red alert and what it means. The meteorology didn't really add up to a nationwide alert but that's not the main purpose of the red alerts.

There have been snow-related events that got orange alerts when they really shouldn't have, but that's a separate matter. Ultimately it may mean we treat all windstorms with greater importance than before, considering the fatalities despite extensive warnings.

Hammer Archer

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Certain counties? It was actually in about 29 of the 32 counties, give or take. That's around 90% of the country that was not red, many just barely orange and some yellow. A lot of the damage in these counties was due to limbs of trees, not actual trees, coming down. One downed limb on an ESB cable can take out thousands of homes. The major damage to structures that I've seen all occurred in the initial red alert areas, especially Cork.

I note that nobody has been able to give a reason why the two major airports remained open, meaning that these employees and passengers were out in the "worst" of it.

Do you want to go to the family of the Louth man and Tipp man and tell them that the storm that caused the death of their loved ones wasn't too bad?
You're coming at this from a purely scientific point of view. That's your prerogative. From a real world perspective, sticking rigidly to that sort of thinking can get people killed. You cannot simply look purely at the numbers. As I said in the previous post, numerous factors have to be taken into account as well.

If there was no red warning, most people would have been going about their daily business as usual. In Dublin, this would have massively increased the chances of falling trees/limbs (limbs can also be dangerous, not sure why you're intimating otherwise) hitting cars/pedestrians. As the red warning was issued, the city looked like a ghost town and I don't think anyone was injured.
Echoing others' statements, I think Met Éireann can never win in situations like this. There are many complaining about the red warning that was given. Yet if they had stuck religiously to the scientific criteria for red warnings and the number of killed was in double figures, they'd be crucified.

With the airports, you'll have to ask them for the reason because I don't believe anyone here will know. I'll ask you a question: In your opinion, do you believe that the risk of a higher death toll would have been greater had the rest of the country not been under the red warning and had been operating as normal?

Brian Lighthouse

I believe that Met Éireann were totally correct with their call.

I also think that many people are looking at 'Ophelia' through their own lens/perspective or I'll go as far as saying self-centric viewpoint.

I can empathise with the almost 500,000 homes without electricity and the 80,000 or so without water following Ophelia's traipse across the country. I feel sympathy for the families and friends of the people who lost their lives.

When someone sits in their own little patch and says 'meh, it wasn't that bad, what was all the fuss about?' they are viewing this event through their own lens.

However, when Met Éireann made their decision they had the kind consideration to think of every single person living on this island.

And, as many many people have pointed out; if it were not a Red Alert we - as a nation - would be dealing with a completely different aftermath.

iguana

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Can you explain why you feel a red warning for the initial counties would have been sufficient given that 2 of the 3 deaths occurred in initial orange warning areas?

All 3 deaths occurred in counties that were originally Orange alert. Waterford was upgraded to Red early on Sunday along with Wexford and Limerick but was initially Orange.

In Limerick it felt like we got off comparatively lightly but that was largely because people were indoors. Numerous branches and trees fell across roads that would normally have very heavy traffic all day long. If people had been going about their normal business at the very least there would have most likely been a lot of cars damaged and people injured if not killed.

Macy0161

Roger_007 wrote: »

Instead of a country-wide code RED being issued for fixed times, it should be zoned, showing where conditions are likely to be more or less severe and at what times.
My own experience of Ophelia was that it was not an unusually severe storm in my area.
People should be given accurate information and then they can make informed decisions and they will have more confidence in the warnings that are issued in future.

Whilst I think this has merits (particularly for wind surfers and some swimmers being possibly unfairly treated for ignoring a red which wasn't really the conditions they were out in!), it would add complications. What would you do in Dublin - have people in work, and sent home before it? Guarantee Public Transport until the red is in effect?

The real confirmed red/ coordination group making the final call was really after 9pm which is as lates as it could be left. That was when the conversations started in my organisation anyway, final word not until much later that we wouldn't be open. My main complaint would be at that stage it was too late to go for a pint!

fwiw, despite "the East wasn't really hit" narrative that seems evident on this thread, there was plenty of damage done in Wicklow, particularly the south and coastal areas. But we had tree's down in our locality despite that. So what are we into then - warnings down to parishes/ townlands areas, rather than counties, just because it might not be too bad in one part of the county?

I think a lot of people are still missing the point that ME and the coordination group are acting off forecasts and models, whereas a lot of the critism is based on what actually happened. Judging by the amount of contact I had from family in the UK checking we were ok, I assume the UK Met office were also on board leading the UK TV coverage. So it's extremely harsh to judge based on what happened v the information available at the time.

Also, love how a branch hitting a person or a car might not do damage all of a sudden. So as well as breaking down warnings do we need a definition of how big a branch/ bow needs to be to count?

snowstreams

I feel met eireann were totally correct to call a red warning nationwide.

The criteria for a red wind warning should be lower when trees are still in leaf as Joanna Donnelly explained.

A tree might need 140kmph winds to come down when its without leaves but just 100kmph when it has leaves catching all that wind.

Gaoth Laidir

Hammer Archer wrote: »

I'll ask you a question: In your opinion, do you believe that the risk of a higher death toll would have been greater had the rest of the country not been under the red warning and had been operating as normal?

I have already said that I think the red alert should have been extended to more counties, with an Orange for the rest of the country. The recommendations of an Orange are:

STATUS ORANGE - Weather Warning - Be Prepared

This category of ORANGE level weather warnings is for weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. The issue of an Orange level weather warning implies that all recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions.

It's not as if I'm saying there should have been no alert in the rest of the country. For me, an Orange would have been appropriate for everywhere except the initial counties plus a couple more in the south Midlands.

Middle Man

With over 90% for yes, it’s nice to see that common sense has prevailed - perhaps the reason for the low death toll - that said, 3 dead is 3 too many.

Middle Man

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I have already said that I think the red alert should have been extended to more counties, with an Orange for the rest of the country. The recommendations of an Orange are:




It's not as if I'm saying there should have been no alert in the rest of the country. For me, an Orange would have been appropriate for everywhere except the initial counties plus a couple more in the south Midlands.

Red = Take Action!

That is precisely what we did - loose garden furniture put away, new fence panels sheltered and weighed down, loose branch cuttings placed out of harms way etc. This is Meath we’re talking about. A few trees in neighboring Fingal were destroyed even if damage was very limited. I saw those winds during the storm and they represented a definite code red situation IMO.

George Sunsnow

Middle Man wrote: »

With over 90% for yes, it’s nice to see that common sense has prevailed - perhaps the reason for the low death toll - that said, 3 dead is 3 too many.

Yes but the circle in the poll result above for that 90% is orange
Perhaps it should be red

Gaoth Laidir

Middle Man wrote: »

Red = Take Action!

That is precisely what we did - loose garden furniture put away, new fence panels sheltered and weighed down, loose branch cuttings placed out of harms way etc. This is Meath we’re talking about. A few trees in neighboring Fingal were destroyed even if damage was very limited. I saw those winds during the storm and they represented a definite code red situation IMO.

And the Orange alert says that too...

The issue of an Orange level weather warning implies that all recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions.

Middle Man

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yes but the circle in the poll result above for that 90% is orange
Perhaps it should be red

The Bar Graph for the desktop version has red for the most popular version, but just checked the mobile version and indeed, it is orange for the most popular option. It should really be consistent...

Mango Joe

Hoping the OP and his 'gut' never become in charge of anything ever......

How was this ever a serious question?

- Do you understand that forecasting involves an element of uncertainty also OP?

languagenerd

NeonCookies wrote: »

If the storm was due to hit during the night, maybe they could have gotten away with holding off on red alerts but that wasn't the case.

If the storm as it was yesterday hit during a typical Monday there would have been chaos and more lives would have been lost.

Yeah, I think the timing was a huge factor. The worst winds were predicted to hit north-eastern counties between 2 and 6pm - right in the middle of a Monday rush hour, with over a million people on the move. While the damage in these areas wasn't anywhere near as widespread as in Cork, Kerry, Waterford etc (where no-one's disputing the Red warning), there was a still a large number of fallen trees on major commuter routes and dangerous unpredictable gusts. And one of the people who died had a tree fall on his car in Dundalk.

If they hadn't issued the red, there would have been tens of thousands of cars on the roads and more cases of trees falling on them. There would have been thousands of people driving im bad conditions on exposed roads like the M1 in Meath/Louth, the M4, M7, M9 etc in Kildare/Laois/Westmeath. There would have been collisions due to debris hitting cars or drivers swerving to avoid it. There would have been parents desperate to collect their kids taking risky routes. There would have been hundreds of people on Luas trams when the control room was damaged. There would have been high-sided vehicles out in high winds. There would have been pedestrians walking around the towns and cities. Etc.

Absolutely the right call in the circumstances.

Caranica

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I have already said that I think the red alert should have been extended to more counties, with an Orange for the rest of the country. The recommendations of an Orange are:




It's not as if I'm saying there should have been no alert in the rest of the country. For me, an Orange would have been appropriate for everywhere except the initial counties plus a couple more in the south Midlands.

Tell that to the hole in my roof in Dublin! Also flipped a barbecue that it took three people to lift into place that I didn't think needed securing. Or the trees/large branches down around the estate.

If people hadn't been scared indoors by the red warning I dread to think of the injury/fatality rate

Yakult

I'm not sorry, but the people who think that a red warning was not warranted are fecking eejits of the highest order!

Nettle Soup

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I have already said that I think the red alert should have been extended to more counties, with an Orange for the rest of the country. The recommendations of an Orange are:


It's not as if I'm saying there should have been no alert in the rest of the country. For me, an Orange would have been appropriate for everywhere except the initial counties plus a couple more in the south Midlands.

Met Eireann did a great job overall but they will do well to convince the good people of rural Galway the next time they call a Red Alert!
It just never happened here.
We'll all be heading to Salthill next time for a looksee and a swim

hatrickpatrick

Caranica wrote: »

If people hadn't been scared indoors by the red warning I dread to think of the injury/fatality rate

This exactly. The nationwide red alert caused my family and I'm sure many others' to do two things they absolutely wouldn't have done without the alert, media hype or not: Bring indoors anything in the gardens which might have become loose and dangerous in the wind (chairs, footballs, flower pots etc) and secondly, stock up and stay indoors all day.We're in Sandycove, Dun Laoghaire, and based on the state of the place on Monday evening with fallen trees and shop signs etc, the rate of both damage and injuries to people would have been amplified unimaginably without that alert. Dun Laoghaire main street in particular has a lot of shops with old-fashioned "swing signs" hanging above their doors, and if any of them had come loose they would have been carried in the wind at incredibly dangerous speeds - As, indeed, did happen with a few large tree branches etc.

The red alert had to come straight from Met Eireann, because our idiotic media hypes up the weather on such a ridiculously regular basis that nobody would have believed newspaper or television headlines without an official warning from Met Eireann to back those headlines up.

Hammer Archer

Relevant part of the MÉ website explaining the warnings:

When will Weather Alerts/Warnings be issued?
Given that the thrust of the Weather Warnings service is on potential “Impacts” of weather rather than on the numerical values attained by the weather elements themselves, it may on occasion be appropriate to issue warnings at a level higher than that strictly justified by the anticipated weather elements. An example would be when heavy rain was expected which might not quite meet the “Orange Warning” criteria but which might give rise to significant flooding because of already saturated ground, or because of a combination of rain, wind and tide in a coastal location.

Think this pretty much covers it.

hatrickpatrick

Caranica wrote: »

Tell that to the hole in my roof in Dublin! Also flipped a barbecue that it took three people to lift into place that I didn't think needed securing. Or the trees/large branches down around the estate.

If people hadn't been scared indoors by the red warning I dread to think of the injury/fatality rate

One of the problems I think is that the American media sometimes hypes all hurricanes as if they were category fives, so when people hear the word "hurricane" they're expecting destruction on the scale of Irma or Katrina. Hurricane Ophelia was never going to leave buildings entirely totalled in the way that Irma did in the Caribbean, but it only takes one heavy and flying projectile to kill somebody, particularly if the streets are as crowded as they are on the day of an "average" winter storm. I have never in my life seen as many downed trees in the Dun Laoghaire area as with Ophelia, and if people had gone about their business in usual sense of "f*ck, it's a horrible day but duty calls", there's no doubt in my mind that we'd have had fatalities in the area.

Around the few streets near my house alone we had two gigantic trees taken down without warning, and a roof blown off a house onto a parked van. That's surely enough for a red alert - the areas where the trees were taken down in particular are very heavy traffic areas both for cars and for pedestrians.

Steopo

Interesting map below from ESB - it's from today unfortunately rather than Monday but still shows the counter argument as to whether it was a country wide Red - Ulster & Connacht show minimal impact at least from power outage perspective. Personally I still think Met E made the right call in the interest of safety and clarity of message but don't be so dismissive of the counter arguments because we should all learn from it for future events

expectationlost

Larbre34 wrote: »

By Met reann's own admission, the Orange / Red conditions away from the South and West coasts were marginal. Joanna Donnelly dealt with this head on on Claire Byrne's show last night - she said herself and senior forecaster Evelyn Cusack had precisely that discussion with Eoin Moran, the Director of Mand on the balance of risk to life and limb by upper Orange level conditions in some areas, the Red Level alert was agreed to give the Emergency Co-ordination team certainty for their decisions.



1-0 to Met as far as Im concerned.

Storm Ophelia on CB show


https://www.rte.ie/news/player/2017/1016/21254027-storm-ophelia/


the numbers didn't quite add up to red level across all counties

made the call based on something more then the number on the charts

(is this even accounting for not being able to predict the east west path)

Harry Palmr

Has anyone mentioned the potential addition risk of having counties on different status in such an event creating the impression that travel from one location to another might be safe when in fact it might well not be?

Suppose as a theoretical example that a band of counties across the midlands was status red due to localized west to east moving severe wind and rain but with Orange either side and people thinking "well I'll only be in the red zone for 30-40 minutes on the motorway it'll be grand" and so hundreds/thousands of individual journeys in both directions are made both on motorways which would be relatively safe but also the link roads/local roads at either end some of which might be only just beyond the worst of the wind/rain event.

You might say little chance of that situation occurring in such a small country - but that's precisely the point. Far better to go all red than create ambiguity by splitting an area of 70,000 square km up into zones with people all to ready to interpret Orange as a moderate warning.

Gaoth Laidir

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Has anyone mentioned the potential addition risk of having counties on different status in such an event creating the impression that travel from one location to another might be safe when in fact it might well not be?

Suppose as a theoretical example that a band of counties across the midlands was status red due to localized west to east moving severe wind and rain but with Orange either side and people thinking "well I'll only be in the red zone for 30-40 minutes on the motorway it'll be grand" and so hundreds/thousands of individual journeys in both directions are made both on motorways which would be relatively safe but also the link roads/local roads at either end some of which might be only just beyond the worst of the wind/rain event.

You might say little chance of that situation occurring in such a small country - but that's precisely the point. Far better to go all red than create ambiguity by splitting an area of 70,000 square km up into zones with people all to ready to interpret Orange as a moderate warning.

If that's the case then every warning issued must be nationwide.

Harry Palmr

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If that's the case then every warning issued must be nationwide.

I tend to think if it's localised red plus nationwide orange it's better to go all red on balance. I realise some will find this overkill...

stevenup7002

I think they made the right call, and overall, Met Eireann did an excellent job. There was just no way to know where exactly the worst of the winds would be. iirc, Met Eireann were still predicting to see the worst winds in the West/North West right up until the storm hit.

It's probably easy to say this in hindsight, but I still think they should've risked it and extended the red warning earlier on Sunday, or even late Saturday. Even three hours earlier for the Six O'Clock news on Sunday might have made a difference.

I don't think enough time was given for people to prepare. By the time the warning was extended, there was almost no chance for people to venture out and get supplies. Perhaps two of the three deaths could also have been avoided had the severity of the storm been pushed a bit earlier (but of course, we'll never really know that).

I still can't forget that even by early Sunday, the Irish headlines still amounted to "some buses might be canceled on Monday". I think that was a failing.

Gaoth Laidir

expectationlost wrote: »

Storm Ophelia on CB show


https://www.rte.ie/news/player/2017/1016/21254027-storm-ophelia/


the numbers didn't quite add up to red level across all counties

made the call based on something more then the number on the charts

(is this even accounting for not being able to predict the east west path)

I admire Joanna a lot but I really wish she would stop saying it was a "hurricane". She also said the 1987 storm was a "hurricane".

DOCARCH

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I admire Joanna a lot but I really wish she would stop saying it was a "hurricane". She also said the 1987 storm was a "hurricane".

I will agree with you on that one!

I was really baffled on the 1987 storm (...hurricane...as she referred to it), as that, as far as I am aware, had no connection with any hurricane (ex hurricane or other)!

George Sunsnow

Just to give you another idea of the strength of that wind here in the southeast near Arklow
A new 10 bay dairy shed a ways over the road from me which hadn’t the sheeting on its roof yet only the timbers
This had all the timber broke and the girders,IRON girders bent up :eek:

Gaoth Laidir

DOCARCH wrote: »

I will agree with you on that one!

I was really baffled on the 1987 storm (...hurricane...as she referred to it), as that, as far as I am aware, had no connection with any hurricane (ex hurricane or other)!

None whatsoever.