NBA Regular Season & Playoffs 2017-18

ButtersSuki

Carcharodon wrote: »

That’s true to a certain extent and I am all for conserving the best for playoffs but I honestly don’t think it’s as simple as it sounds. Turnovers and Draymond being an idiot are the Warriors Achilles heel, they can be so sloppy with the ball at times, infuriating to watch.
Teams like Houston and Okc believe they can beat the Warriors now and that is half the battle, before teams were already beaten when they entered the building, not any more
Iam still confident they will repeat but they will need to focus

Only the Warriors can beat a healthy Warriors team.

Draymond is not playing well, and the bench is light for sure; but there's enough there in the first five to see them through. An injury or a suspension could land them in trouble with OKC or particularly Houston though.

You're absolutely right though that they've ceded a lot of ground psychologically. I'm sure Kerr if fuming at the moment.

ButtersSuki

So the Cavs were in for DeAndre Jordan and Kemba Walker too but both deals fell through. They reallyw ere determined to explore every avenue. LeBron was supposedly told they were shipping Isiah on Tuesday - explains his blanking of him in the Minnesota celebrations I guess. Well that and the fact he clearly had already dismissed him.

Gregk961

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Depends how you define "best" I guess. Simmons is right now and will be long term IMO the better player; but you could argue Mitchell is having a better season on some levels and therefore the race is more open than it was in Oct/Nov/Dec. In a nutshell, Simmons is very good at a lot of aspects of the game, Mitchell is good at some.

Mitchell is coring more sure, but Simmons does more, and when you go into the advanced stats, Simmons is significantly better. The eye test for me also has Simmons ahead. Mitchell is very flashy and spectacular, Simmons more solid

Put it this way - if you asked every coach in the league who they'd rather have:

• In a straight pick, one or the other
• To start a team with

I'd say you'd get 95%+ in the first category and 100% of the second for Simmons.


Not dismissing Mitchell by any means, he's been very good and a steal where he went in the draft; but I don't see how you can take him over Simmons given the skillset.

I would agree its more likely that Simmons ends up being a better player, he has an amazing ability to the read the game and incredibly skillful for a guy his size. He has a broken jump shot but that can be worked on between seasons. Id say its fairly likely he has a hall of fame career if he stays healthy.

I was talking strictly about the ROY award and I still think Simmons will win it, but its a lot closer than I thought it would be. While I expected Simmons to be great, Mitchell has surpassed all expectations. I dont think its too much of a stretch to say DM has effectively filled Hayward's(2017 all star) boots so far this season. For a rookie to take over as a teams main guy like he has is seriously impressive.

You say Mitchell is flashy and spectacular but thats not what impresses me so much as his all around game. Apart from being a great athlete, Mitchell has a good feel for the game too, his assist numbers dont show how often he runs the offense. Only in the league a few months and he is already better around the rim than Westbrook too.

Meatyfubu

I personally had Simmons as my ROY at the start of the year. Outside of seeing the potential, a year redshirted gives a player a significant edge especially given that those that tend to contend for ROY are also younger freshmen opposed to multi-year college players. Interesting article related to average NBA rookies ages in recent times and it's trajectory suggests that "One & Done" will be scraped and HS players will be allowed enter once more.

ht$tps://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nbas-age-limit-is-broken/ (not allowed URLs)

Easily said now obviously but I had Mitchell as my dark horse. Personally I think Utah is one of the most well coached teams in the NBA and with the loss of Hayward there would be significant additional minutes for a wing player especially given Hood has had a number of injuries in recent years. Mitchell to me at the time had all the athleticism, range and scoring ability needed to log significant minutes.
I also thought Malik Monk was somewhat hard done by falling to where he did so obviously it works both ways.

As far as the trade deadline went, I thought the Cavs made some good moves. It remains to be seen whether this can make LeBron stay as the roster still doesn't look capable of challenging GSW.
If they can I believe that next season they'll have the highest luxury tax bill in history.
For me it boils down to does he want the easiest path to the finals or does he want to go to the West and challenge GSW before the finals, knowing if he beats them then, there is nobody in the East that can challenge.

Lakers were the winners obviously shedding Clarksons contract and getting a 1st round pick. I think next year they don't get LBJ and PG13. They do similar with IT that they did with Caldwell Pope, 1 year 20m+ and target 2019.

Suns imo got a great deal on Payton, I'm still a fan, 23 continually improving, over 35% from range though FT % is still low. I think he fits well with Booker and a 2nd round pick for him was fine provided you don't overpay him.

Grizz and Nuggets did poorly. Nuggets had plenty of pieces to move but settled on a deal I'm somewhat dubious about regarding Mundiay. Grizz front office appear to simply be a tad stubborn in recent times and not moving Evans for Mundiay and 2nd rounder or two 2nd rounders was needless.

Looking forward to post all-star break. I think Bucks gets homecourt, Pelicans miss the playoffs and Nets finish in the bottom 3 so that pick lands the Cavs; Bagley, Ayton, Porter Jr or Doncic

LuckyLloyd

Meatyfubu wrote: »

As far as the trade deadline went, I thought the Cavs made some good moves. It remains to be seen whether this can make LeBron stay as the roster still doesn't look capable of challenging GSW.
If they can I believe that next season they'll have the highest luxury tax bill in history.
For me it boils down to does he want the easiest path to the finals or does he want to go to the West and challenge GSW before the finals, knowing if he beats them then, there is nobody in the East that can challenge.

Good wins on the road against Boston and Oklahoma (and a road win in Atlanta before the new players got sorted) with the new look line up and a much more cohesive looking unit overall.

Meatyfubu

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Good wins on the road against Boston and Oklahoma (and a road win in Atlanta before the new players got sorted) with the new look line up and a much more cohesive looking unit overall.

Definitely, it's probably not an entirely far representation because there is a unique rivalry/friendship but the way in which LBJ defended Melo on a number plays last night albeit somewhat unsuccessfully at times, there was certainly a greater level of intensity than recent weeks.


Still can't link articles but Woj does a good piece as usual on ESPN called....
"how-cleveland-cavaliers-changed-their-season-flurry-trades"

They are easily favs in the East once again, C's were 18-14 up until the other night I believe. My opinion on East if the seeding falls as I hope it will is the Bucks or perhaps even the Sixers meet Cavs in Eastern finals. It's obviously speculative but I'm hopeful, Nate Silver's CarmELO ratings has the Sixers getting homecourt

C's can't score without Kyrie, Horford is a post season liability in some ways, although not really proven last year outside of Bulls series and Tatum/Brown have hit the wall a tad.

Raptors style, more importantly DeRozan is not conducive to postseason success, quick glance of playoff vs reg season numbers tell the story.

ButtersSuki

I posted recently on bunching in the Mid-End PlayOff Seeding in both conferences but the bottom/lottery area is even more crowded:

East: Teams, + Current Win Totals in Bold
Chicago 20
Brooklyn 19
Orlando 18
Atlanta 18

West:
Memphis 18
Sacramento 18
Phoenix 18
Dallas 18


6 teams tied for last and 2 games between the bottom 8. The tanking could get crazy towards the end of the season.

ButtersSuki

While you weren’t looking Toronto and Houston have taken the 1 seeds in each conference. GS drop through sloppiness, Boston because they’ve been playing at .500 since their opening spurt.

Meatyfubu

Jazz are playing unbelievable stuff. Snyder is one of my fav coaches. He did some shrewd business on Crowder imo. Crowder flourished in C's motion offense and the Jazz run similar schemes in theory, I think he's going to regain his form and remain one of the best value deals in the league.

My fav player is Rubio and he's also playing great although his assists have dropped. I don't think they'll make much noise in the playoffs but bodes so well after Hayward left. Its hard to see them taking a leap without another star and Utah will struggle to attract any player truly worth a max deal.

Paully D

Cavs will cruise to the Finals again.

They probably would have even without the trades but they look a lot better now.

They’ll be a different beast altogether in the playoffs anyway and there’s no-one in the East going to come anywhere close to beating them over 7 games when the chips are down.

Gregk961

Paully D wrote: »

Cavs will cruise to the Finals again.

They probably would have even without the trades but they look a lot better now.

They’ll be a different beast altogether in the playoffs anyway and there’s no-one in the East going to come anywhere close to beating them over 7 games when the chips are down.

I know its only 1 player but Thompson looks like a big liability the last 12 months. Love might be starting at the 5 for the playoffs. Larry nance coming off the bench is looking more effective than Thompson too. Id say Golden State are relieved the Cavs couldn't land DeAndre in their deadline day spree.

ButtersSuki

Good Woj piece on the Cleveland dealings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/Woj22432626/how-cleveland-cavaliers-changed-their-season-flurry-trades-adrian-wojnarowski

You'd have to wonder how accurate it is but considering the author it's probably an accurate version of the story he was fed. Koby Altman seems to have picked up a trick or two about media relations from Griffin.

ButtersSuki

Gregk961 wrote: »

I know its only 1 player but Thompson looks like a big liability the last 12 months. Love might be starting at the 5 for the playoffs. Larry nance coming off the bench is looking more effective than Thompson too. Id say Golden State are relieved the Cavs couldn't land DeAndre in their deadline day spree.

I doubt they were or are ever worried about Jordan. They destroy him routinely and the reality is he's never playing crunch time in a close Play Off game due to his FT limitations.

They'd be more afraid of the Cavs as a unit now for sure than they were a week ago, but not nearly enough to be seriously worried. GS's biggest challenges will be in the West.

ButtersSuki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

While you weren’t looking Toronto and Houston have taken the 1 seeds in each conference. GS drop through sloppiness, Boston because they’ve been playing at .500 since their opening spurt.

Boston because the Raptors have been relentless, really putting teams to the sword, their depth is ridiculous. A point differential of +8.5, only bettered by Houston (+8.7)

ButtersSuki

Deleted User wrote: »

Boston because the Raptors have been relentless, really putting teams to the sword, their depth is ridiculous. A point differential of +8.5, only bettered by Houston (+8.7)

Yeah, but it counts for nothing if Boston are still winning at the same clip as they started the season off at....which they're not.

Boston started 16-2 and have variously been 22-4 and 34-10. They're now 40-19.

They're 6-9 in their last 15 games and 5-5 in their last 10.

Toronto are 9-1.

Meatyfubu

Deleted User wrote: »

Boston because the Raptors have been relentless, really putting teams to the sword, their depth is ridiculous. A point differential of +8.5, only bettered by Houston (+8.7)

I'm all about the pt-differential but it's not an entirely fair comparison with the Rockets. It's not exactly like saying he's the best player because he scored the most points but it's along those lines. I still can't link but TeamRankings gives a few strength of schedule tables that are probably a more fair representation.

Raptors have been excellent but DeRozan is one of the biggest under-performers in the postseason relative to his regular season production. It's common in recent times among players who tend to make the mid-range their bread & butter.

For example, players off the top of my head, outside of his first season at the Spurs Aldridge substantially under-performed relative to his reg season production.

Obviously it's not always the case but in a game that is going more towards space, the additional attention a primary offensive option like DeRozan garners in the postseason and his poor 3pt% does not lend itself to success imo.

NufcNavan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-QDXwoxZrI

Gotta love Al Jefferson.

Vital Transformation

Meatyfubu wrote: »

I'm all about the pt-differential but it's not an entirely fair comparison with the Rockets. It's not exactly like saying he's the best player because he scored the most points but it's along those lines. I still can't link but TeamRankings gives a few strength of schedule tables that are probably a more fair representation.

Raptors have been excellent but DeRozan is one of the biggest under-performers in the postseason relative to his regular season production. It's common in recent times among players who tend to make the mid-range their bread & butter.

For example, players off the top of my head, outside of his first season at the Spurs Aldridge substantially under-performed relative to his reg season production.

Obviously it's not always the case but in a game that is going more towards space, the additional attention a primary offensive option like DeRozan garners in the postseason and his poor 3pt% does not lend itself to success imo.

DeRozan is more of a 3pt threat this season and his assist averages are at an all time high. Part of the Raptors success this season has been the transformation of their system, less ISOs through DeRozan and more ball movement. They have 11 players averaging over 6 ppg, a first ever.

Meatyfubu

Vital Transformation wrote: »

DeRozan is more of a 3pt threat this season and his assist averages are at an all time high. Part of the Raptors success this season has been the transformation of their system, less ISOs through DeRozan and more ball movement. They have 11 players averaging over 6 ppg, a first ever.

True but 33% isn't really much of a threat IMO especially as those percentages tend to drop in post season. Samples are small but DeRozan has shot 6% and 15% from three in last 2 post seasons. He pretty much can't get worse.

They're very good with a deep roster. They're simply a team I see struggling to live up to expectations. Teams don't tend to go 11 deep in a playoff series, maybe they will but minutes tend to be consolidated with stars playing more.
Van Fleet, Siakam, Powell have all been great and OG was a terrific get but you have so much inexperience and your primary option has a history of drastic underperformance. I struggle to see them turning to those guys for heavy minutes.

Valancunis; as much as I thought he'd take the leap after playing so well in the Euros a few years ago is a bit of a dinosaur, small ball teams will have him sitting for huge stretches.
Ibaka has stagnated massively and is nowhere near the defensive presence he once was. Post season is about match ups and I don't think that they match up particularly well with a number of teams. I suspect they'll be gone by the 2nd round. Hopefully I'm wrong because I think Casey is excellent.

ButtersSuki

Jokic with some stat line last nice:

30pts, 15rbs, 17ast, 2blks, 1stl.
11/14 FGS.
5/5 from the line and 3/3 from 3.

And yet everytime I see him play I think he could do more. Strange. He looks like a guy in 3rd gear most of the time.

Gregk961

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Jokic with some stat line last nice:

30pts, 15rbs, 17ast, 2blks, 1stl.
11/14 FGS.
5/5 from the line and 3/3 from 3.

And yet everytime I see him play I think he could do more. Strange. He looks like a guy in 3rd gear most of the time.

His game has an effortless look to it at times, comes across as lazy almost. Hes only 22 though and he could easily end up being the best passing Center ever.

Meatyfubu

Meatyfubu wrote: »

True but 33% isn't really much of a threat IMO especially as those percentages tend to drop in post season. Samples are small but DeRozan has shot 6% and 15% from three in last 2 post seasons. He pretty much can't get worse.

They're very good with a deep roster. They're simply a team I see struggling to live up to expectations. Teams don't tend to go 11 deep in a playoff series, maybe they will but minutes tend to be consolidated with stars playing more.
Van Fleet, Siakam, Powell have all been great and OG was a terrific get but you have so much inexperience and your primary option has a history of drastic underperformance. I struggle to see them turning to those guys for heavy minutes.

Valancunis; as much as I thought he'd take the leap after playing so well in the Euros a few years ago is a bit of a dinosaur, small ball teams will have him sitting for huge stretches.
Ibaka has stagnated massively and is nowhere near the defensive presence he once was. Post season is about match ups and I don't think that they match up particularly well with a number of teams. I suspect they'll be gone by the 2nd round. Hopefully I'm wrong because I think Casey is excellent.

Another thing is that they are usually gassed by the time they get to the playoffs and carrying in injuries (I know you could argue this for all teams but it seems to have effected the raps the last 3 years more than others) but all the starters minutes are down this year due to the bench so there is less mileage on the legs. Lowry is down by over 5 mins! (I hope I don't jinx him as this is around the time he picks up his niggly injury)

ButtersSuki

Gregk961 wrote: »

His game has an effortless look to it at times, comes across as lazy almost. Hes only 22 though and he could easily end up being the best passing Center ever.

Yup. Saw him in the flesh a few times last year and he lookedlike he wasn't even tyring...then you look at the stats and he's had 20, 10 and 7 and it's 2 minutes into the second half and you're like "How TF did that happen?"

Meatyfubu

Gregk961 wrote: »

His game has an effortless look to it at times, comes across as lazy almost. Hes only 22 though and he could easily end up being the best passing Center ever.

Effortless is a good way of describing him. He's top drawer, I think a really good defensive PF beside him and he would flourish.
They'll be interesting over the next few years, with Millsap back if they can climb to 6th they might win a 1st round series.
IMO he has the highest floor of any of that young group Turner, KAT, KP and Embiid.
He's not reliant on athleticism, really high IQ, offensively unbelievable in a number of ways. Similar to M.Gasol, weaker defensively but more potent offensively.

ButtersSuki

Denver have some nice young talent if they can keep it all together - they have 6 guys aged 22 or younger.

NufcNavan

So Magic's Lakers were fined $500K for tampering with PG last summer, and now he's been fined $50K for praising Giannis. The guy is just a total joke of a GM and thinks he can wink, smile, and charm his way to the top. Credit to Silver for reprimanding this behavior.

ButtersSuki

NufcNavan wrote: »

So Magic's Lakers were fined $500K for tampering with PG last summer, and now he's been fined $50K for praising Giannis. The guy is just a total joke of a GM and thinks he can wink, smile, and charm his way to the top. Credit to Silver for reprimanding this behavior.

I've said it for a long time there's not much substance behind the smile.

He's a joke of a GM and only there as a PR piece and someone they can wheel out when recruiting. But as someone said on a pod recently how much is Magic's star value to younger players who grew up on the likes of KG, Kobe, Shaq, TMAC, etc.? His basketball decisions since he retired as a player have largely been terrible and if the Lakers get LeBron it's likely he'll get way too much credit for it. Everytime I hear him interviewed or talking about the game today I wince.

Meatyfubu

NufcNavan wrote: »

So Magic's Lakers were fined $500K for tampering with PG last summer, and now he's been fined $50K for praising Giannis. The guy is just a total joke of a GM and thinks he can wink, smile, and charm his way to the top. Credit to Silver for reprimanding this behavior.

"He's going to be like an MVP, a champion, this dude he's going to put Milwaukee on the map," Magic told ESPN of the Greek Freak. "And I think he's going to bring them a championship one day."

If you were to take the 50k fine in isolation it was a laughable decision.
Silver alluded to on the Jump that the 50k fine was due to the previous fine and used as a warning to other GM's not to talk about other players.

By all accounts Magic has made some great moves as Head of Basketball Ops. Nobody over 25 under contract outside of Deng past this season, 60m+ in cap room provided Deng is waived. Kuzma, Ingram, Hart all look good and Lonzo has shown flashes.
He hasn't handled LaVar the way in which he should have IMO but he's been positive overall.
He's always had an outgoing personality but as far as the things I care about as fan of the Lakers, I'd have little issue with Magic. Pelinka and Walton(indirectly involved supposedly) appear to be good hires.
He can only be graded on where the Lakers were when he took over and they are in a far better position than they were.

Gregk961

Meatyfubu wrote: »

IMO he has the highest floor of any of that young group Turner, KAT, KP and Embiid.

Thats a good point, if I had to draft one of that group now I'd be torn between KAT and Jokic. Embiid is a monster but injuries would put me off.

ButtersSuki

Some great shooting and great dunks in the Word v USA game. Less defence than the All Star game too if that's even possible?