Fantasy Premier League Free hit advice?

km79

Morzadec wrote: »

(I'll assume Eliot picks up 2 points tonight for the below analysis)

For me it's 51 FH team vs 38 (-8) on regular team.

So with a 21 point profit, you could say it will likely be neither really a success or failure (probably leaning towards more of a failure however, especially if Eliot keeps a cleany tonight).

It's hard to analyse the week in isolation however, because part of the -8 I would've taken would have been to bring Sane in, which I'm now taking a 4 point hit to do this week, so should I recalculate that 38 (-8) to be a 38 (-4)? I would also have a FT this week which I could have used to improve my bench fodder.

To fund the move for Sane last week (had I not used FH) I would have ditched Davies. Instead I now ditch Monreal. Having Davies (Palace, H) instead of Monreal (City, a) should hopefully be worth 4 points. I would have also ditched Cout for Salah to try and get 11 players out so their upcoming returns need to be factored in.

Instead I now still have Coutinho and Davies, instead of Monreal and Salah had I not used the chip.

If Davies puts up a decent score against Palace next week and in the weeks to come (Spurs have some nice fixtures), and Coutinho can outscore Salah over the next few weeks I'll look back at the FH as a very shrewd move.

If Coutinho is injured longer term then again using this chip seems unwise as I'll have to take a 4 point hit to get him out at some point anyway.

TLDR: For me at least, it's very hard to analyse the benefit of using the chip in isolation of the week at hand because many of us used it so as not to dismantle much of our usual team. So the performances of players like Coutinho and Davies (who I would have subbed out had I not used FH) in the coming weeks will determine whether the FH at this stage was a good idea.

This last bit is very important for me and one of the reasons I played few hit in the end
I stupidly sold jones as I assumed it was long term
I immediately wanted him back when he was fit and would have used a FT to get him
Alli was also going and now I have him for palace
Bavies too although I'm not sure he will play

I also dodged a few bullets in who I would have brought in !

km79

Final act was having pope instead of Elliot in taht game (and zaha over Ritchie )

Free hit a massive success for me
Gained me more points than any TC or BB has

And I get Phil jones back
Delighted

Iused2likebusts

Just thinking the jan1 gw could be an idea for the free hit coming two days after the previous gw .Especially with city assets.

Hogey007

km79 wrote: »

Final act was having pope instead of Elliot in taht game (and zaha over Ritchie )

Free hit a massive success for me
Gained me more points than any TC or BB has

And I get Phil jones back
Delighted

Same here, having pope over Elliot brings me to a net gain of 43 points with the free hit.

66 vs 31 (-8)

I have coutinho to thank, it was his injury and lack of captain option that really gave me that final nudge.

shineon23

shineon23 wrote: »

I didn't play the Free Hit in the end as I wasn't sure what I wanted to do.
Was too much of a rush as only started considering it Friday evening.
I was already on -8 and didn't want to get the players I already sold back in.

I'm having a disaster of a week in any case so I'm going to put it in a spread sheet for my sanity, comparing my 3 possible teams.
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
(ii)Team B: now on -8 points
(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team

As it stands:
Team A is on 28. Aguero (C) Morata (VC)
Team B is on 26(-8). Aguero (C) Salah (VC)
Team C is on 15. Sanchez (C)

I'm fairly happy with the core of Team B going forward so if I keep pace with Team A, I won't be feeling too sorry for myself.

Team A is very speculative anyway I made and early transfer of Aguero in for Lukaku before the Kane news Friday.

shineon23 wrote: »

Update on this
Team A: 44. Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team B: 37(-8) Rooney, Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team C: 31 Rooney and Cedric to Play

So think I've kind of gotten away with staying with Team B with a lot of common players left to play between the 3 teams.

I've held my Free Hit chip, and will hopefully have a clearer plan for it and more funds to work with when I do play it.

Not too concerned with Team A's score as it involved not making my early transfer.

Will try factor in the change in prices/team value and if I decide to take a points hit to try get Kane back in for Palace.

As I said on the matchday thread the Salah penalty miss pretty much killed my gameweek. It was possible that I'd have been 14-20 points off depending on his potential BPS. (Team B-Aguero (C) Salah (VC))

Final on this Update on this
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
Team A: 48

(ii)Team B: as I am now on -8 points
Team B: 43(-8)=35

(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team
Team C: 35

So in the end I was right not to play the Free Hit, well the way that I was going to play it by ending on the same amount of points.

Team A's higher score hits home that I shouldn't make early transfers.
Points wise the optimal decision would have actually been me banking the transfer and benching Kane for the week. Hindsight is great

I haven't looked at team value changes in depth as there is a lot variables, when changes happened, if I had the player at the time etc.

I may have gained a slight increase of 0.2-0.3 team value with team A but as it stands I've maintained my value so that's good enough for me

Morzadec

I think the free hit in hindsight was a really poor choice from me.

I thought I could avoid a big hit last week as my team was only in bad shape for that week and that I'd be largely in good shape for this week.

The news that Coutinho is likely out means part of the problem still remains. I'm pretty sure Bavies will be rested too. So I'm ending up taking a -8 this week. Probably only a 10-15 gain on the chip then in the end.

I should have just taken a big hit last week and sorted out my bench.

Of course we'll have to see how the skinny week plays out, maybe it'll be manageable but I imagine I'll be cursing using the FH when it comes around!