General Rugby Discussion II

ionadnapokot

I like the look of that backrow. SA 7 looked decent. & Leitch off the bench.
Japan are building some depth
https://the1014.com/jamie-josephs-depth-chart/
Although I see Blackrock’s Luke Thompson is back.

Edit
6 days after Scotland, Ireland will be playing Japan. Who will have played Russia 8 days previous.
Considering the capitulation v Wales I think Ireland will have an almighty battle on their hands to get out of the pool. Never mind getting beyond a quarter final.

jr86

ionadnapokot wrote: »

6 days after Scotland, Ireland will be playing Japan. Who will have played Russia 8 days previous.
Considering the capitulation v Wales I think Ireland will have an almighty battle on their hands to get out of the pool. Never mind getting beyond a quarter final.

Yup, I noted this in the World Cup thread

The scheduling makes Ireland v Japan potentially very interesting indeed.

I do think Ireland will get out of the Pool though but right now its looking like a likely QF exit again

Podge_irl

Almighty battle to get out of the pool my arse.

jr86

Podge_irl wrote: »

Almighty battle to get out of the pool my arse.

In fairness after the 6n Ireland can't take a whole lot for granted. Scotland first up isn't the ideal time to be playing them. If Ireland did actually lose that it leaves only a 6 day turnaround for a knockout game v Japan

Now surely Ireland will win one of them and probably both but who knows - a few injuries could change things.

Funnily enough one win in those two games mightn't actually be enough to qualify

Podge_irl

jr86 wrote: »

In fairness after the 6n Ireland can't take a whole lot for granted. Scotland first up isn't the ideal time to be playing them. If Ireland did actually lose that it leaves only a 6 day turnaround for a knockout game v Japan

Now surely Ireland will win one of them and probably both but who knows - a few injuries could change things.

Funnily enough one win in those two games mightn't actually be enough to qualify

After the 6N in which we reasonably handily beat Scotland in Murrayfield?

It's a piss easy pool and Ireland should be overwhelming favourites to top it.

If we're so off form that we lose to Scotland then we won't be going far in the tournament anyway.

Realistically we have an excellent record against them and they are generally poor away from home. It's going to be a dogfight and Scotland are going to be hugely up for it. It will be very physical and win, lose or draw we'll be fairly beaten up at full time.

We'll be fine with the turnaround though, we'll have our homework done on Japan and as much as they can cause tier 1 teams trouble, they really only do it when those teams are also having a bad day. I'd be very surprised if we lost and again, we wouldn't be going anywhere in the tournament if fail to beat Japan.

Scotland have a very short turnaround before the play Japan and I think this is the game the blossoms will be targeting.

thomond2006

If you think Ireland will have a tough time in the pool, I suggest strolling to your local bookmaker. I see Ireland are available at 35/1 to be eliminated at the pool stages.

jr86

Deleted User wrote: »

Realistically we have an excellent record against them and they are generally poor away from home. It's going to be a dogfight and Scotland are going to be hugely up for it. It will be very physical and win, lose or draw we'll be fairly beaten up at full time.

Agree with this. I expect Scotland to be seriously targeting it, and in fairness they've taken some big scalps recently, but as you say they are not as good away. Do they have a full squad as it stands? If I remember correctly they were down a few in the 6n this year.

I'd be very surprised if Ireland didn't top the Pool, but stranger has happened. QF mightn't be the worst time to play NZ though looking at them recently

boetstark

After this mornings result I believe there is very little advantage in winning our group. Rassies Boks are only going to get stronger.

ionadnapokot

thomond2006 wrote: »

If you think Ireland will have a tough time in the pool, I suggest strolling to your local bookmaker. I see Ireland are available at 35/1 to be eliminated at the pool stages.

I have strolled, but only backed Scotland on the handicap
If Ireland loose that match it would be unwise to assume Ireland will still beat Japan. Keep an eye on them in the Pacific cup.

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

Almighty battle to get out of the pool my arse.

How would you, or your arse, care to describe it?

feargale

ionadnapokot wrote: »

How would you, or your arse, care to describe it?

feargale

boetstark wrote: »

After this mornings result I believe there is very little advantage in winning our group. Rassies Boks are only going to get stronger.

Maybe we should pull a fast one on the whole damn lot of them, lose all our matches and be home before the postcards.

Podge_irl

ionadnapokot wrote: »

How would you, or your arse, care to describe it?

Straightforward.

It’s an easy group and it’s asinine to pretend otherwise.

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

Straightforward.

It’s an easy group and it’s asinine to pretend otherwise.

You know what they say about Assumptions?

Podge_irl

ionadnapokot wrote: »

You know what they say about Assumptions?

I’m not assuming anything. It’s an easy group and if Ireland fail to qualify it will be an embarrassing failure and wildly against history and form. But let’s not pretend this is something it isn’t.

RobbieRuns

The last two RWC group draws have been very kind to Ireland. Getting Argentina in the quarters in 15 was the best that could have happened in what was as close to a home venue as possible. We should look to win this group in Japan and go flat out in the quarters whoever that may be, but we should top that group irrespective. It would be a massive fail in Joe's last swansong if we do not.

molloyjh

This is an easy pool. End of. Our biggest competition in the pool has beaten us 3 times in the last 10 competitive games we've played against them. All 3 times when we massively underperformed and all 3 were 1 score games. They can just about beat us when we're at our worst. If that doesn't qualify as easy I'm not sure what does. If we dont top this pool it will be because we messed up, not because the opposition are up there with the best in the world.

thomond2006

Not getting out of the 2019 pool would make 2007 look like a fine showing. It's not happening.

swiwi_

molloyjh wrote: »

This is an easy pool. End of. Our biggest competition in the pool has beaten us 3 times in the last 10 competitive games we've played against them. All 3 times when we massively underperformed and all 3 were 1 score games. They can just about beat us when we're at our worst. If that doesn't qualify as easy I'm not sure what does. If we dont top this pool it will be because we messed up, not because the opposition are up there with the best in the world.

And even if you did lose to them you should still get out of the pool.

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

I’m not assuming anything. It’s an easy group and if Ireland fail to qualify it will be an embarrassing failure and wildly against history and form. But let’s not pretend this is something it isn’t.

And I’m not pretending either. Seems obvious to me that right now Ireland are not playing well and low on confidence.
Ireland beat a severely depleted Scotland team in the 6N. Carbery magic moment required.
If a full strength Scotland score an early try against Ireland in WC I fear the worst. Playing the hosts 6 days later will be another huge battle. Of course It’s a relative situation.

Btw Ireland are in easy group. The way they are playing they wouldn’t get out of Group C or even Group D.
To assume Ireland are automatically going to recapture their form...well for want of a better word, that would be just asinine!

ionadnapokot

thomond2006 wrote: »

Not getting out of the 2019 pool would make 2007 look like a fine showing. It's not happening.

It would make 2019 6N look like a fine showing.
It could happen. Let’s see how the warm ups go and who is fit and available.

Edit
Japan are not mugs
https://youtu.be/xbm7msXAtPk

https://youtu.be/HJ0je2QujsM

aloooof

ionadnapokot wrote: »

To assume Ireland are automatically going to recapture their form...well for want of a better word, that would be just asinine!

Do you think Ireland need to re-capture their 2018 form to get out of the group?

Podge_irl

ionadnapokot wrote: »

And I’m not pretending either. Seems obvious to me that right now Ireland are not playing well and low on confidence.
Ireland beat a severely depleted Scotland team in the 6N. Carbery magic moment required.
If a full strength Scotland score an early try against Ireland in WC I fear the worst. Playing the hosts 6 days later will be another huge battle. Of course It’s a relative situation.

Btw Ireland are in easy group. The way they are playing they wouldn’t get out of Group C or even Group D.
To assume Ireland are automatically going to recapture their form...well for want of a better word, that would be just asinine!

Ireland beat Scotland by more than a score (so no, a Carberry magic moment was not required) in Murrayfield. Ireland were never behind after the 9th minute. Ireland don't need to "recapture" anything to reasonably comfortably qualify out of the group. Scotland and Japan would need to make massive strides to challenge them.

As to the other groups, it would depend what team Ireland are replacing, but I highly doubt they would lose to France in Group C and who on earth would you expect to trouble them from Group D!?

ionadnapokot

aloooof wrote: »

Do you think Ireland need to re-capture their 2018 form to get out of the group?

Good question. Can I answer with I think they need to improve on 2019 form?

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ireland beat Scotland by more than a score (so no, a Carberry magic moment was not required) in Murrayfield. Ireland were never behind after the 9th minute. Ireland don't need to "recapture" anything to reasonably comfortably qualify out of the group. Scotland and Japan would need to make massive strides to challenge them.

As to the other groups, it would depend what team Ireland are replacing, but I highly doubt they would lose to France in Group C and who on earth would you expect to trouble them from Group D!?

Who on earth! You’re a good man. Enjoy the WC. It should be an ass kicker!

Podge_irl

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Who on earth! You’re a good man. Enjoy the WC. It should be an ass kicker!

I'm just assuming in this hypothetical scenario we would be replacing Australia or Wales as it would make zero sense for us to be in the group as a 3rd seed. So is it Fiji or Georgia you would expect to send us crashing home?

molloyjh

ionadnapokot wrote: »

thomond2006 wrote: »

Not getting out of the 2019 pool would make 2007 look like a fine showing. It's not happening.

It would make 2019 6N look like a fine showing.
It could happen. Let’s see how the warm ups go and who is fit and available.

Edit
Japan are not mugs
https://youtu.be/xbm7msXAtPk

https://youtu.be/HJ0je2QujsM

The closest Japan have ever come to beating us is a 16 point loss in 1991. Since then the margins have been over 20 points every time. While we've only played them twice this decade, both times were in Japan at the end of the season with a massively depleted squad and our average winning margin was 25 points. This time we'll have a near full squad to choose from at the start of the season. I simply cant see how anyone could think they are a threat.

aloooof

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Good question. Can I answer with I think they need to improve on 2019 form?

I think we may need to improve our 2019 form to beat Scotland but I still think any Joe Schmidt managed Ireland team will have enough for Japan in a World Cup group.

The closest a Tier 2 nation has come to us was probably Fiji in 2017? (23-20). And we had an almost complete 2nd string team out that day:

1. McGrath
2. Herring
3. Porter
4. Dillane
5. Porter
6. Ruddock
7. Jordi
8. Conan
9. Marmion
10. Carbery
11. Dave Kearney
12. McCloskey
13. Farrell
14. Sweetnam
15. Conway

Toner and Conan probably the only players near the first 15 there.

The 6 Nations was probably the poorest run of performances we've seen from Ireland under Schmidt since he started, so it is a worry. But I think he's just too good a coach for that to continue. And even if it does, I still think we'll have plenty to get out of the group.

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm just assuming in this hypothetical scenario we would be replacing Australia or Wales as it would make zero sense for us to be in the group as a 3rd seed. So is it Fiji or Georgia you would expect to send us crashing home?

Please assume that other people are equally informed as your good self. Please Tone down the ridicule of others. Conversation and debate is always the better for it. We’re all Irish rugby supporters here!

Australia like Ireland were “band 1”
So yes, I do think Ireland could also loose to Fiji in their opening game. And would definitely loose to Wales in their second game.