General Rugby Discussion II

ionadnapokot

molloyjh wrote: »

The closest Japan have ever come to beating us is a 16 point loss in 1991. Since then the margins have been over 20 points every time. While we've only played them twice this decade, both times were in Japan at the end of the season with a massively depleted squad and our average winning margin was 25 points. This time we'll have a near full squad to choose from at the start of the season. I simply cant see how anyone could think they are a threat.

That’s ok. I simply can’t see how anyone would dismiss them out of hand considering how Ireland are playing and how Japan (8 days rest v 6) are improving under Joseph.
I’m sure “Big Bok” and others couldn’t see any threat from Japan either!

molloyjh

ionadnapokot wrote: »

molloyjh wrote: »

The closest Japan have ever come to beating us is a 16 point loss in 1991. Since then the margins have been over 20 points every time. While we've only played them twice this decade, both times were in Japan at the end of the season with a massively depleted squad and our average winning margin was 25 points. This time we'll have a near full squad to choose from at the start of the season. I simply cant see how anyone could think they are a threat.

That’s ok. I simply can’t see how anyone would dismiss them out of hand considering how Ireland are playing and how Japan (8 days rest v 6) are improving.
I’m sure “Big Bok” and others couldn’t see any threat from Japan either!

I think you're overstating how poor our form is. We still beat Italy, Scotland and France in the 6Ns. When was the last time Japan beat any of those? And we're not even 12 months on from beating NZ. If the SA game is relevant for Japan in this conversation despite being 4 years old then surely our 2 wins over NZ plus our GS in that time are relevant for Ireland then too?

ionadnapokot

molloyjh wrote: »

I think you're overstating how poor our form is. We still beat Italy, Scotland and France in the 6Ns. When was the last time Japan beat any of those? And we're not even 12 months on from beating NZ. If the SA game is relevant for Japan in this conversation despite being 4 years old then surely our 2 wins over NZ plus our GS in that time are relevant for Ireland then too?

Come on. Let’s not play games!
I put the SA game reference in for a bit of relevant lightheartedness!
The victories over a weakened Scotland team, shambolic France and the 10pt win over Italy (we were loosing at HT and
In full blow crisis mode) don’t say good form.
Could I ask you these two questions? How would you describe the performance v Wales?
And Scotland’s v England?

molloyjh

ionadnapokot wrote: »

molloyjh wrote: »

I think you're overstating how poor our form is. We still beat Italy, Scotland and France in the 6Ns. When was the last time Japan beat any of those? And we're not even 12 months on from beating NZ. If the SA game is relevant for Japan in this conversation despite being 4 years old then surely our 2 wins over NZ plus our GS in that time are relevant for Ireland then too?

Come on. Let’s not play games!
I put the SA game reference in for a bit of relevant lightheartedness!
The victories over a weakened Scotland team, shambolic France and the 10pt win over Italy (we were loosing at HT and
In full blow crisis mode) don’t say good form.
Could I ask you these two questions? How would you describe the performance v Wales?
And Scotland’s v England?

Did I say "good form"? If you want constructive discussion on this then please dont go making other people comments out to be something that they are not.

I'm well aware of how poorly we played in the 6Ns, but for all your talk about it do you really think that Scotland can defend the way that Wales can? Or physically dominate us the way England did at times? You talk of form as some sort of magic thing that applies equally no matter the opposition. That's not how it works. We struggled more against certain teams for particular reasons. We will not struggle against the teams in our pool because they dont pose the same physical threat, be that through size sheer effort.

aloooof

molloyjh wrote: »

I think you're overstating how poor our form is. We still beat Italy, Scotland and France in the 6Ns. When was the last time Japan beat any of those? And we're not even 12 months on from beating NZ. If the SA game is relevant for Japan in this conversation despite being 4 years old then surely our 2 wins over NZ plus our GS in that time are relevant for Ireland then too?

We can even compare Japan and Ireland vs SA in that period, with Ireland's 38-3 record win over them in 2017.

sydthebeat

Japan are a very consistent team. They have some very good homegrown players, with a pleteora of foreign born players who were mainly super rugby rejects. They are playing VERY well currently by their standards and will probably run out as winners of the PNC this season. In Jamie Joseph, Tony Browne and Ben Herring they have a good coaching ticket which has them difficult to break down, with some very good invention off set pieces and in the loose. They mainly are the sunwolves team from super rugby, without some of the bigger names a la parker, Masirewa and Pryor etc.

But lets put them into perspective.. they have never beaten Ireland or Scotland before. They were arguably stronger as a squad in 2015 that they will be this season.

Personally i think they will target the scotland game as their big effort....
In a flip from the RWC 2015, they have an 8 day rest before the scotland game, whereas scotland have only 4 days.
Assuming all games go to plan, that last game will be a play off for the 2nd spot.

ionadnapokot

molloyjh wrote: »

Did I say "good form"? If you want constructive discussion on this then please dont go making other people comments out to be something that they are not.

I'm well aware of how poorly we played in the 6Ns, but for all your talk about it do you really think that Scotland can defend the way that Wales can? Or physically dominate us the way England did at times? You talk of form as some sort of magic thing that applies equally no matter the opposition. That's not how it works. We struggled more against certain teams for particular reasons. We will not struggle against the teams in our pool because they dont pose the same physical threat, be that through size sheer effort.

I do want constructive debate. I’m not trying to stir anything here.
I m purely basing things on Current form.
I think Ireland are in bad form. What do you think?
And my other two questions were genuine.

jr86

sydthebeat wrote: »

Personally i think they will target the scotland game as their big effort....
In a flip from the RWC 2015, they have an 8 day rest before the scotland game, whereas scotland have only 4 days.
Assuming all games go to plan, that last game will be a play off for the 2nd spot.

Agree - but isn't the irish game 2nd and the Scotland one last?

They have Russia first - a bye essentially - then 8 days to prepare for Ireland so I'd imagine they'll go gung-ho against us.

Still plenty of time then to prepare for Scotland.

But realistically the Scotland match will be the one they'll be more confident of winning for sure

sydthebeat

jr86 wrote: »

Agree - but isn't the irish game 2nd and the Scotland one last?

They have Russia first - a bye essentially - then 8 days to prepare for Ireland so I'd imagine they'll go gung-ho against us.

Still plenty of time then to prepare for Scotland.

But realistically the Scotland match will be the one they'll be more confident of winning for sure

im sure they will go gung-ho against us..... but im also sure they will view the Scotland game as eminently more winnable than our game.
They will most certainly start with their full squad in the opening game against russia..... so its possible they might even rest some of their better players against us with the view of having as best a squad available against scotland....

AbusesToilets

Flipside of the talk on form, 2007 we finished the 6Ñs playing some of the best rugby we've ever managed. Played like drains in the warm ups and WC. It's a brand new season.

ionadnapokot

aloooof wrote: »

I think we may need to improve our 2019 form to beat Scotland but I still think any Joe Schmidt managed Ireland team will have enough for Japan in a World Cup group.

The closest a Tier 2 nation has come to us was probably Fiji in 2017? (23-20). And we had an almost complete 2nd string team out that day:

1. McGrath
2. Herring
3. Porter
4. Dillane
5. Porter
6. Ruddock
7. Jordi
8. Conan
9. Marmion
10. Carbery
11. Dave Kearney
12. McCloskey
13. Farrell
14. Sweetnam
15. Conway

Toner and Conan probably the only players near the first 15 there.

The 6 Nations was probably the poorest run of performances we've seen from Ireland under Schmidt since he started, so it is a worry. But I think he's just too good a coach for that to continue. And even if it does, I still think we'll have plenty to get out of the group.

Im also a believer of Gospel Joe! & how Ireland have played when it was well executed. However, I think the game plan has not evolved enough and that the opposition know with ever more certainty what we are going to do. With Murray and Sexton playing well below their best it has exasperated the issue.
I agree that even allowing for all that we should still beat Japan or any tier 2 side.
My fear is that a full strength Scotland catch fire and run in a couple of early tries. Confidence again collapses and then we play the host nation, on a 6 day turnaround. Japan are a well coached side and well capable of catching Ireland on the bounce with early tries.
Even when Ireland had been playing well once they concede an early try against a good side they don’t win.
& I don’t consider Scotland or Japan “good sides”. But they have the ingredients for the recipe of disaster!

shootermacg

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Im also a believer of Gospel Joe! & how Ireland have played when it was well executed. However, I think the game plan has not evolved enough and that the opposition know with ever more certainty what we are going to do. With Murray and Sexton playing well below their best it has exasperated the issue.
I agree that even allowing for all that we should still beat Japan or any tier 2 side.
My fear is that a full strength Scotland catch fire and run in a couple of early tries. Confidence again collapses and then we play the host nation, on a 6 day turnaround. Japan are a well coached side and well capable of catching Ireland on the bounce with early tries.
Even when Ireland had been playing well once they concede an early try against a good side they don’t win.
& I don’t consider Scotland or Japan “good sides”. But they have the ingredients for the recipe of disaster!

40+ vs Japan. Scotland can be tricky, but Leinster vs Glasgow is nearly always going to be Leinster.

ionadnapokot

shootermacg wrote: »

40+ vs Japan. Scotland can be tricky, but Leinster vs Glasgow is nearly always going to be Leinster.

Ah jaysus! I’m not convincing anybody!
England and NZ didn’t even do 40+ on Japan. They aren’t that bad!

shootermacg

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Ah jaysus! I’m not convincing anybody!
England and NZ didn’t even do 40+ on Japan. They aren’t that bad!

They can't score without the ball.

irishbucsfan

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Ah jaysus! I’m not convincing anybody!
England and NZ didn’t even do 40+ on Japan. They aren’t that bad!

I mean... our 2nds put 50 on Japan in Japan 2 years ago

jr86

What level are japan actually at that though? I - and I imagine many others - would be lying if I said I knew all that much about them. I watch shag all international rugby outside the main tournaments

I assume they are the best side that doesn't play in the 6n or Rugby Championship though? But what about beyond that. Would they be better than Italy these days? They did beat them handy last summer. Would they be all that far off Scotland and France?

they also gave England a scare for an hour last year and almost beat wales a few years ago (both away)

Quin_Dub

jr86 wrote: »

What level are japan actually at that though? I - and I imagine many others - would be lying if I said I knew all that much about them. I watch shag all international rugby outside the main tournaments

I assume they are the best side that doesn't play in the 6n or Rugby Championship though? But what about beyond that. Would they be better than Italy these days? They did beat them handy last summer. Would they be all that far off Scotland and France?

they also gave England a scare for an hour last year and almost beat wales a few years ago (both away)

I would put Japan and Georgia in roughly the same category..

In some ways , knocking on the door to the next level , capable of causing an upset if they catch a team having a bad day that don't take them seriously enough , but really not there yet to consistently be competitive.

Could Japan catch Ireland on the hop? - Of course , anything can happen.

Will Japan catch Ireland ? - Extremely unlikely , they'll have their moments in the game but I would predict that an Ireland team (with at least 6-8 front liners not starting) will beat them with something to spare.

Christy42

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I would put Japan and Georgia in roughly the same category..

In some ways , knocking on the door to the next level , capable of causing an upset if they catch a team having a bad day that don't take them seriously enough , but really not there yet to consistently be competitive.

Could Japan catch Ireland on the hop? - Of course , anything can happen.

Will Japan catch Ireland ? - Extremely unlikely , they'll have their moments in the game but I would predict that an Ireland team (with at least 6-8 front liners not starting) will beat them with something to spare.

Exactly. I don't expect 40+ point win or anything but we are rightly massive favourites. I reckon Japan have a closer eye on the Scotland game anyway. Scotland are naturally lower level and struggle more away from home.

Not getting out of the group would marr some of Joes achievements for me because it is a really nice group for us. QF would be disappointing but it will obviously be a tough match.

irishbucsfan

Christy42 wrote: »

Exactly. I don't expect 40+ point win or anything but we are rightly massive favourites. I reckon Japan have a closer eye on the Scotland game anyway. Scotland are naturally lower level and struggle more away from home.

Not getting out of the group would marr some of Joes achievements for me because it is a really nice group for us. QF would be disappointing but it will obviously be a tough match.

Not getting out of this group would destroy his legacy. It’d make this year the biggest collapse in performance levels the team have ever had

Quin_Dub

Christy42 wrote: »

Exactly. I don't expect 40+ point win or anything but we are rightly massive favourites. I reckon Japan have a closer eye on the Scotland game anyway. Scotland are naturally lower level and struggle more away from home.

Not getting out of the group would marr some of Joes achievements for me because it is a really nice group for us. QF would be disappointing but it will obviously be a tough match.

Exactly - Jamie Joseph will have looked at the group and the run of games and knows that the Scotland game is the crucial one for them.

They'll want a good showing against Ireland , but I wouldn't be surprised if they held one or two key players back to ensure they are 100% for the Scotland game.

Podge_irl

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Please assume that other people are equally informed as your good self. Please Tone down the ridicule of others. Conversation and debate is always the better for it. We’re all Irish rugby supporters here!

Australia like Ireland were “band 1”
So yes, I do think Ireland could also loose to Fiji in their opening game. And would definitely loose to Wales in their second game.

I'm sorry, I don't mean to be dismissive but suggesting Ireland probably wouldn't qualify out of group D cause they would lose to Fiji is hard to take seriously.

You are wildly overstating the poor form Ireland are in and giving other teams far too much credit. Its obviously sport and anything can happen etc etc but it would be a colossal upset if Ireland failed to qualify and it is significantly more likely that they breeze through the group regardless of whether their form improves from the 6N.

Yeah_Right

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Ah jaysus! I’m not convincing anybody!
England and NZ didn’t even do 40+ on Japan. They aren’t that bad!

NZ beat them 69-31 last year with the their second string line up. And I seem to remember something about NZ's first string team struggling against Ireland a couple of weeks later.

ionadnapokot

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm sorry, I don't mean to be dismissive but suggesting Ireland probably wouldn't qualify out of group D cause they would lose to Fiji is hard to take seriously.

You are wildly overstating the poor form Ireland are in and giving other teams far too much credit. Its obviously sport and anything can happen etc etc but it would be a colossal upset if Ireland failed to qualify and it is significantly more likely that they breeze through the group regardless of whether their form improves from the 6N.

Upon reflection, you’re right! Ireland would beat Fiji.
I don’t think I’m too far off the mark regarding Ireland’s form and the difficulty a full strength Scotland side will pose.
If it goes tits up, Ireland will be vulnerable. I mean they nearly **** themselves v Italy!
It’s the panic and mistakes that swept through the side that I found most alarming in the 6N. Before the Wales game I started digging through games where Ireland conceded early tries:

Of Ireland’s 9 losses under Joe in 6N & RWC matches:
7 of those games the opposition got the first try
5 of those games the opposition scored a try in the first 20 mins.

Ireland have won 1 game after conceding the first try (v Scotland ‘16!)

Discounting Scotland, Italy, Canada, Romania from stats:
21 games 8 losses 1 draw
57.14% win rate
Ireland scored the first try in all of those wins bar France ‘18 & ’16 - Late French tries in both.
0% win rate when first conceding a try in the 1st half.

For perspective, Wales came from behind twice in this championship after first conceding a try in the 1st half (Fran & Eng).

Scotland have improved and I think we can’t discount that they can now stick a couple of tries on us early doors and it would be game over.

Christy42

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Upon reflection, you’re right! Ireland would beat Fiji.
I don’t think I’m too far off the mark regarding Ireland’s form and the difficulty a full strength Scotland side will pose.
If it goes tits up, Ireland will be vulnerable. I mean they nearly **** themselves v Italy!
It’s the panic and mistakes that swept through the side that I found most alarming in the 6N. Before the Wales game I started digging through games where Ireland conceded early tries:

Of Ireland’s 9 losses under Joe in 6N & RWC matches:
7 of those games the opposition got the first try
5 of those games the opposition scored a try in the first 20 mins.

Ireland have won 1 game after conceding the first try (v Scotland ‘16!)

Discounting Scotland, Italy, Canada, Romania from stats:
21 games 8 losses 1 draw
57.14% win rate
Ireland scored the first try in all of those wins bar France ‘18 & ’16 - Late French tries in both.
0% win rate when first conceding a try in the 1st half.

For perspective, Wales came from behind twice in this championship after first conceding a try in the 1st half (Fran & Eng).

Scotland have improved and I think we can’t discount that they can now stick a couple of tries on us early doors and it would be game over.

Wait why are you discounting several teams from the stats?

aloooof

Christy42 wrote: »

Wait why are you discounting several teams from the stats?

I can understand discounting Romania and Canada to see how we've performed against Tier 1 opposition, but why is Scotland discounted? Especially when them (and Japan) are the core of this whole discussion.

In fact, Japan is the crux of the whole argument, so including Tier 2 teams too would make sense.

ionadnapokot

aloooof wrote: »

I can understand discounting Romania and Canada to see how we've performed against Tier 1 opposition, but why is Scotland discounted? Especially when them (and Japan) are the core of this whole discussion.

In fact, Japan is the crux of the whole argument, so including Tier 2 teams too would make sense.

Jeesh! It’s just a few stats for info I did before Wales game.
I suppose I just threw it up to show im deadly!
What I gleaned from it was that Ireland will loose when they concede an early try against decent tier1 teams.
I had discounted Scotland because they were not a “decent tier1 team”. But have improved enough to now pose a serious threat to a misfiring Ireland.
Re: Japan. If Scotland turn us over, the pressure mounts and it could go tits up if Japan get an early try.

Christy42

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Jeesh! It’s just a few stats for info I did before Wales game.
I suppose I just threw it up to show im deadly!
What I gleaned from it was that Ireland will loose when they concede an early try against decent tier1 teams.
I had discounted Scotland because they were not a “decent tier1 team”. But have improved enough to now pose a serious threat to a misfiring Ireland.
Re: Japan. If Scotland turn us over, the pressure mounts and it could go tits up if Japan get an early try.

You discounted them because they didn't suit the narrative.

Why are you discounting tier2 nation's when talking about how we will fair against Japan? What we do vs Wales has little bearing as there is a massive gulf in quality.

Oh and we were the only side to beat Scotland by more than a score in 2016.

ionadnapokot

Christy42 wrote: »

You discounted them because they didn't suit the narrative.

Why are you discounting tier2 nation's when talking about how we will fair against Japan? What we do vs Wales has little bearing as there is a massive gulf in quality.

Oh and we were the only side to beat Scotland by more than a score in 2016.

Hold up bud! I’m not discounting them because it doesn’t suit. It took me a long time to go through those stats months ago.
Trust me! I have a new baby here beside me and I don’t have the time or the inclination to go to that bother.
I’m trying to highlight the problem Ireland have when they go behind against good sides. Take it at face value please.
And I hadn’t even had a narrative with you on this!
I posted here in the rugby discussion thread for discussing.

Edit
Btw go through it yourself it bothers you that much

sydthebeat

some small rugby tidbits

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Former Leicester second row Steve Mafi is to join London Irish.

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"This is a fantastic opportunity for me to return to England and test myself in the Premiership," Mafi said.

irelandrover

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Scotland have improved and I think we can’t discount that they can now stick a couple of tries on us early doors and it would be game over.

Just out of curiousity, what are you basing this on. If an improved Scotland lost by more than a score to a completely out of form Ireland (In Scotland) just a few months ago, what makes you think they can trouble Ireland on a neutral venue.