ESRI report - we are not overcooked, but house prices will rise 20% by 2020

Neil3030

I haven't seen a dedicated thread on this, but there are a few points in the ESRI report, summarised here,

- use of the word "recover" to describe the return to 2007 housing prices, in my opinion, completely dismisses that there was ever a bubble. Not the best choice of words there, imo.

- Looking at the graph of house prices to disposable income, we scored near a 1.20 in 2007, and we now score a 0.70, which positions us toward the bottom of the select sub-sample of countries. This is the main argument that prices in Ireland are now "affordable". But prices have also, apparently, "recovered". So if the prices are the same now as they were in 2007, the only way we move from a 1.20 in 2007 to a 0.70 now, is if disposable income has increased by over 70%, if my maths* are correct. I can't say I've observed such a leap in living standards?

- Also on that same graph, I'd like to know if they used median or mean house prices (are outlier mega properties inflating or deflating certain ratios) and I'd also like to know how or what they consider to be "disposable income". Also, how did we score on other ratios, like house prices to GNP, house prices per average industrial wage, and, further, where we stand relative to other countries.

*assuming house price remains constant:
L2 = 1.2*L1/0.7
=> L2 = 1.71*L1
where L1 is living standards in 2007, L2 is 2016

Beta Ray Bill

Interesting read.

And as far as I can see you are correct in saying that the suggested disposable income jump is just a statistic and bares no reflection on reality.

The house prices are going up.
However if I look on Myhome.ie right now there are 4049 property's for sale in Dublin.
Break that down:
2887 Houses
952 Apartments
81 Sites
17 Investment property's
3 Agricultural property's

As far as I can see there is no real shortage of supply in terms of buying. (Otherwise those numbers would be far lower)

It should be noted that there are only 447 property's to rent in Dublin.
This is VERY low. There are a large number of hedge funds sitting a vast numbers of vacant properties waiting for their value to go up however.


The other interesting thing to remember is that would be house hunters don't have the full price of a house in their back pocket.
In March 2017 the average price of a 3 bed semi-d house in Dublin was €404,000.

Most people have mortgage approval and can only buy what the bank will lend to them.
If the Bank is willing to lend everyone more, then the bidding wars start and the prices go up.
This favors everyone except the person that's going to be lumped with a mortgage of €400,000.
People are also quite stupid, most of them will take the max that the bank will allow them to borrow without even thinking "Will I actually be able to pay this back before I retire?"

We are heading towards another bubble. The banks are back at it again lending stupid amounts of money to people (that have never saved a penny in their lives) at insane interest rates. No politician will dare put the brakes on or even utter the words "Double Dip".

I implore everyone, now is the wrong time to buy a house.
Do not get caught up in this idea that getting onto the "property ladder" is the best thing.
Hold out if you can, cause this is not going to be a smooth landing.

Dr_Kolossus

Pretty sure we are not at average house prices from 2007 yet. I seem to remember my house was around average when I bought in 2007 for 365k.

We are not at that yet are we?

Beta Ray Bill

Dr_Kolossus wrote: »

Pretty sure we are not at average house prices from 2007 yet. I seem to remember my house was around average when I bought in 2007 for 365k.

We are not at that yet are we?

No we are not

But that demographic of where people are willing to live has changed significantly in the last 10 years

People are no longer willing to live in a housing estate in the middle of no where. Those houses are still there and are basically "unsellable" due to negative equity + no one wants them.

They are dragging the average price down across the country significantly.

House prices in the Capital are now above what they were in 2007 (€351,000) at €404,000 as of May 2017.

Beta Ray Bill

More interesting reading, according to property price register the following number of homes were sold in each year:

2010 - 6930 Properties sold
2011 - 5897 Properties sold
2012 - 8910 Properties sold
2013 - 10371 Properties sold
2014 - 14163 Properties sold
2015 - 15408 Properties sold
2016 - 15722 Properties sold
2017 - 13387 Properties sold (So far)

Since to 2014 things look to have stabilised (I could be wrong though)

If you look though the results you can see sections where entire apartment blocks have been sold (100's of property's) this must be NAMA sales, could be skewing things slightly

Danger781

It's so depressing reading articles like this. I legitimately have no idea how a single person can realistically afford to buy a house in this country.

Rent (In Cork) is extortionate and anywhere half decent is snapped up quickly. I can barely afford rent now (750/month, not inc bills) and I'm living in a bit of a remote area with a 30 minute commute.

The whole housing market, renting or buying, is really making me toy with the idea of emigrating.

Am I being dramatic?

Lumen

Danger781 wrote: »

Rent (In Cork) is extortionate and anywhere half decent is snapped up quickly. I can barely afford rent now (750/month, not inc bills) and I'm living in a bit of a remote area with a 30 minute commute.

750/mo for what? Room? Apartment? House?

The_Conductor

Danger781 wrote: »

It's so depressing reading articles like this. I legitimately have no idea how a single person can realistically afford to buy a house in this country.

Rent (In Cork) is extortionate and anywhere half decent is snapped up quickly. I can barely afford rent now (750/month, not inc bills) and I'm living in a bit of a remote area with a 30 minute commute.

The whole housing market, renting or buying, is really making me toy with the idea of emigrating.

Am I being dramatic?

Danger781- no, you're not being dramatic.
I'm one of 7 kids- 4 of whom- despite owning their own apartments- have emigrated- as they couldn't make things add up here.
If I didn't have young children- I'd very probably leave.

Its not just house prices which are insane here- the cost of living here is staggering.

With respect of the absolute numbers of housing units stabilising since 2014, as another poster commented- its good that there is a new 'floor' established- however, the absolute minimum number of units we should be selling annually, if we had some semblence of a normally functioning market- should, realistically, be at least 3 times the current level- with at least 24,000-25,000 new units- in high density developments, predominantly in Dublin, but also in Dublin, Cork, Galway and a few other hotspots.

I see from Kildare Co.Co. minutes this week- that they are being strong armed by the Minister to zone vast tracts of agricultural land for low density housing estates- in a belt encompassing North Lucan, Leixlip, Celbridge, Clane, Sallins, Naas, Johnstown, Rathcoole etc. I.e. the suggestion is that there is to be vastly increased urban sprawl- with little if any cognisance of whether its even possible or reasonable to get in and out of Dublin any longer (Dublin City Council seem to be doing a home run on excluding commuters from the Capital- their train of thought seems to be- if they make it so nasty to commute- people will somehow stop doing it............)

The EU Commission have another delegation coming over here in 2 weeks time to showcase how not to manage planning (to another Polish delegation). The government don't seem to give a hoot.

It may be the best little country in the world to bring up children- but by God- its turning into an even worse hellhole for pretty much everyone else.

sunnyday1234

The_Conductor wrote: »

Danger781 wrote: »

It's so depressing reading articles like this. I legitimately have no idea how a single person can realistically afford to buy a house in this country.

Rent (In Cork) is extortionate and anywhere half decent is snapped up quickly. I can barely afford rent now (750/month, not inc bills) and I'm living in a bit of a remote area with a 30 minute commute.

The whole housing market, renting or buying, is really making me toy with the idea of emigrating.

Am I being dramatic?

Danger781- no, you're not being dramatic.
I'm one of 7 kids- 4 of whom- despite owning their own apartments- have emigrated- as they couldn't make things add up here.
If I didn't have young children- I'd very probably leave.

Its not just house prices which are insane here- the cost of living here is staggering.

With respect of the absolute numbers of housing units stabilising since 2014, as another poster commented- its good that there is a new 'floor' established- however, the absolute minimum number of units we should be selling annually, if we had some semblence of a normally functioning market- should, realistically, be at least 3 times the current level- with at least 24,000-25,000 new units- in high density developments, predominantly in Dublin, but also in Dublin, Cork, Galway and a few other hotspots.

I see from Kildare Co.Co. minutes this week- that they are being strong armed by the Minister to zone vast tracts of agricultural land for low density housing estates- in a belt encompassing North Lucan, Leixlip, Celbridge, Clane, Sallins, Naas, Johnstown, Rathcoole etc. I.e. the suggestion is that there is to be vastly increased urban sprawl- with little if any cognisance of whether its even possible or reasonable to get in and out of Dublin any longer (Dublin City Council seem to be doing a home run on excluding commuters from the Capital- their train of thought seems to be- if they make it so nasty to commute- people will somehow stop doing it............)

The EU Commission have another delegation coming over here in 2 weeks time to showcase how not to manage planning (to another Polish delegation). The government don't seem to give a hoot.

It may be the best little country in the world to bring up children- but by God- its turning into an even worse hellhole for pretty much everyone else.

Bit harsh in my opinion. Salaries are very high here, much higher than in the UK and not far off london salaries in most professions. Most big cities worldwide have accomodation shortages and high prices - thats life in a popular, growing city and country
It could be a whole lot worse....

The_Conductor

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Bit harsh in my opinion. Salaries are very high here, much higher than in the UK and not far off london salaries in most professions. Most big cities worldwide have accomodation shortages and high prices - thats life in a popular, growing city and country
It could be a whole lot worse....

Our salaries may be high here- however, we have an artificially high social welfare construct- and we have a taxation system where the highest tax rates kick in at an artificially low level (almost uniquely in a global context). I'm not aware there is another country in the world where you will have a marginal rate of tax of over 50% on earnings over 35k.

As for harsh- we have one city that has any global scale- and a significant portion of the population along with a majority of non-nationals- want to live there. We have been hosting EU delegations, predominantly from the newer member states, for most of the last 20 years- where they bring groups around to the different areas- and highlight the severe shortcomings in our planning processes.

I had the misfortune to have to visit Dublin yesterday (I don't go to Dublin very often)- and was staggered at what has happened with the road layouts, the single lane on much of the quays, new one way systems, 2.90 an hour for on-street parking, no facilities for families bringing children to hospital etc. A lovely Polish woman who was also visiting the same clinic- asked me if I knew what the story was- and I was embarrassed to have to admit, there are no facilities whatsoever, its a free-for-all.

Its only when you don't have to navigate the likes of Dublin on a daily basis- that you see just how bad it is- when you do visit.

The manner in which we have so many local authorities- who are all using parochial politics to cater to their local needs- with no cognisance of what is for the good of the country as a whole- is nuts. However, we seem to be particularly fond of parochial politics in Ireland- no-one seems to give a hoot about what is in the best interests of Ireland as a whole- its all, whats in it for me and my immediate community.

Honestly- while we're not up there with North Korea as a failed state- we have abject failings- that we quite simply don't care to admit.

As for the ESRI report that house prices will rise by another 20% on average over the next 3 years- who is going to get a 20% payrise over the next 3 years? I know I'm 100% definitely not.

The manner in which there is no coordinated national policy implemented to try and drive the country towards a better place- is becoming more and more stark by the day. I'm appalled.

Wanderer78

The esri wouldn't be using dsge models by any chance to derive their opinions, models that fail to predict things such as 'bubbles'!

Cyrus

grahambo wrote: »

I
Most people have mortgage approval and can only buy what the bank will lend to them.
If the Bank is willing to lend everyone more, then the bidding wars start and the prices go up.
This favors everyone except the person that's going to be lumped with a mortgage of €400,000.
People are also quite stupid, most of them will take the max that the bank will allow them to borrow without even thinking "Will I actually be able to pay this back before I retire?"

We are heading towards another bubble. The banks are back at it again lending stupid amounts of money to people (that have never saved a penny in their lives) at insane interest rates. No politician will dare put the brakes on or even utter the words "Double Dip".

I implore everyone, now is the wrong time to buy a house.
Do not get caught up in this idea that getting onto the "property ladder" is the best thing.
Hold out if you can, cause this is not going to be a smooth landing.

we arent

the banks arent lending stupid amounts of money to people at ridiculous interest rates,

in the main they are lending 80% or less against a property value at a max of 3.5x earnings (less if you have kids) and you can fix the rate for 10 years if you wish.

there will be a slow down in prices, probably in 5-10 years time but no crash.

also people need to forget about prices in 2007, its now 2017, 10 years later, sooner or later we will exceed the boom prices, and it still wont be indicative of a bubble

unknownlegend

I can't find anything on europa.eu about these EU commission delegations coming to Dublin to showcase poor planning to our European neighbours. Is there anything official on that?

server down

The ESRI were cheerleaders for the last boom as well. There must come a time when we just ignore them. Ask mystic meg for her opinion.

server down

Anyone understand why the ratio of house prices to disposable income would have fallen from 1.2 to 0.7? Prices are almost where they were. While inflation has been low taxes are higher. Doesn’t compute.

The_Conductor

unknownlegend wrote: »

I can't find anything on europa.eu about these EU commission delegations coming to Dublin to showcase poor planning to our European neighbours. Is there anything official on that?

Not sure- I was told of the upcoming visit by a HEO in Housing in Wexford- who is all in a fluster trying to get documentation together for them.

The_Conductor

server down wrote: »

Anyone understand why the ratio of house prices to disposable income would have fallen from 1.2 to 0.7? Prices are almost where they were. While inflation has been low taxes are higher. Doesn’t compute.

You're right- unless there are some sort of extenuating circumstances to explain it (and there aren't)- it doesn't make sense.
I strongly suspect someone has screwed up their calculations.

Cuddlesworth

Cyrus wrote: »

we arent

the banks arent lending stupid amounts of money to people at ridiculous interest rates,

in the main they are lending 80% or less against a property value at a max of 3.5x earnings (less if you have kids) and you can fix the rate for 10 years if you wish.

There was 70k in the difference between my AIP's, depending on how banks interpreted the 3.5 times income rule, since some view additional payments as applicable and others do not.

The cashback offers, moratoriums on payments on move in and a pretty severe 180 on questioning where deposits have actually come from, are all methods to try get around the Central bank's deposit rules. It's very feasible that 6 months after moving in a FTB could really be close to 5% equity in a property.

Right now, banks are desperate for the business.

Cuddlesworth

The_Conductor wrote: »

You're right- unless there are some sort of extenuating circumstances to explain it (and there aren't)- it doesn't make sense.
I strongly suspect someone has screwed up their calculations.

Children staying at home for longer, meaning more working adults per property, leading to a higher average household income? We were surveyed around 5 or 6 years ago by the CSO and our household income was around 250k I think with 6 working adults in a 4 bed house.

Cyrus

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

There was 70k in the difference between my AIP's, depending on how banks interpreted the 3.5 times income rule, since some view additional payments as applicable and others do not.

The cashback offers, moratoriums on payments on move in and a pretty severe 180 on questioning where deposits have actually come from, are all methods to try get around the Central bank's deposit rules. It's very feasible that 6 months after moving in a FTB could really be close to 5% equity in a property.

Right now, banks are desperate for the business.

how does a cash back offer change equity you have in a house? who cares where the deposit came from?

you are talking about FTBers buying at the lower end of the market, i was talking about everyone else

Beta Ray Bill

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

There was 70k in the difference between my AIP's, depending on how banks interpreted the 3.5 times income rule, since some view additional payments as applicable and others do not.

The cashback offers, moratoriums on payments on move in and a pretty severe 180 on questioning where deposits have actually come from, are all methods to try get around the Central bank's deposit rules. It's very feasible that 6 months after moving in a FTB could really be close to 5% equity in a property.

Right now, banks are desperate for the business.

Important pieces highlighted there.

Banks are allow to in interpret income
IE you could say to them, you'll get a bonus of 15% at the end of the year and that there is loads of OT you can do. And most of them will accept that.

I told PTSB that I'd be guaranteed Overtime when I was applying and they just accepted that.

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Children staying at home for longer, meaning more working adults per property, leading to a higher average household income? We were surveyed around 5 or 6 years ago by the CSO and our household income was around 250k I think with 6 working adults in a 4 bed house.

That could be right.
I'm back living at home after relationship broke down, I think about how much money I would have extra if I didn't have to pay the mortgage too. (Hopefully I'll be mortgage free soon enough.

The Student

The_Conductor wrote: »

Our salaries may be high here- however, we have an artificially high social welfare construct- and we have a taxation system where the highest tax rates kick in at an artificially low level (almost uniquely in a global context). I'm not aware there is another country in the world where you will have a marginal rate of tax of over 50% on earnings over 35k.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the above. This single issue makes us unattractive as a location for real FDI. By real I mean FDI where the corporations bring jobs and are not subsidized by the state with low taxes etc.

If we had a low cost economy we could compete on a global scale but because of our high cost of living we have to inflate prices and come up with creative ways of encouraging investment by subsidizing that investment with special tax deals.

A low cost economy does not mean your standard of living has to change. if your income was reduced by 50% and all costs were reduced by 50% your standard of living should not change.

We need to accept that we cant be all things to everybody and that people need to take some personal responsibility for their current situation in life.

Interested Observer

Danger781 wrote: »

It's so depressing reading articles like this. I legitimately have no idea how a single person can realistically afford to buy a house in this country.

Yep. I'm in the process of buying at the moment with my partner, but as I get a bit older and realise I'm not in fact immortal, if the unthinkable happened to either of us then the other simply would have no chance. I have single friends in their 30s still living at home to try save.

grahambo

grahambo wrote: »

The other interesting thing to remember is that would be house hunters don't have the full price of a house in their back pocket.
In March 2017 the average price of a 3 bed semi-d house in Dublin was €404,000.



I implore everyone, now is the wrong time to buy a house.
Do not get caught up in this idea that getting onto the "property ladder" is the best thing.
Hold out if you can, cause this is not going to be a smooth landing.

Why does everyone want a house in South Dublin? Why is that the metre?

You can get a great house for €150k 90 minutes from Dublin. I live in the Dublin suburb it takes me nearly a hour to get into the city. For extra 30 minutes I can save 250k on house price! A lot of my colleagues can work from home now any way.

The Student

Interested Observer wrote: »

Yep. I'm in the process of buying at the moment with my partner, but as I get a bit older and realise I'm not in fact immortal, if the unthinkable happened to either of us then the other simply would have no chance. I have single friends in their 30s still living at home to try save.

I think our perceptions of what we need (not want) needs to change. In a normal functioning market single people/couples would buy a one bed property, when a family come along they trade up to a two/three bed property and when their children leave home they trade down to a one bed property.

We appear to have this notion that we all need a three/four bed semi in a leafy suburb. We can't all have this no matter how much we want it.

sunnyday1234

Its always possible to improve their lot in life. People can work hard and go back to education in order to improve their situation 
Of course Dublin is a bottleneck , it is a capital city in the fastest growing economy in europe. Some people arent happy unless we are in a constant recession like the 80's

I am in my late 30's and have experience nothing but opportunities in Ireland and i most certainly wasnt born into a rich family.

Cyrus

Deleted User wrote: »

Why does everyone want a house in South Dublin? Why is that the metre?

You can get a great house for €150k 90 minutes from Dublin. I live in the Dublin suburb it takes me nearly a hour to get into the city. For extra 30 minutes I can save 250k on house price! A lot of my colleagues can work from home now any way.

i dont think he mentioned south dublin

Cyrus

The Student wrote: »

We appear to have this notion that we all need a three/four bed semi in a leafy suburb. We can't all have this no matter how much we want it.

exactly this

Interested Observer

The Student wrote: »

I think our perceptions of what we need (not want) needs to change. In a normal functioning market single people/couples would buy a one bed property, when a family come along they trade up to a two/three bed property and when their children leave home they trade down to a one bed property.

We appear to have this notion that we all need a three/four bed semi in a leafy suburb. We can't all have this no matter how much we want it.

I'm not looking in the leafy suburbs anyway but I am also not going to look at a 1 bed as within 12-18 months it's more than likely we'll have a baby on the way, it makes absolutely no sense to me to buy small and then move in such a short period of time. I would say it's the same for a lot of couples, kids tend to follow marriage pretty sharply.

Beta Ray Bill

Deleted User wrote: »

Why does everyone want a house in South Dublin? Why is that the metre?

You can get a great house for €150k 90 minutes from Dublin. I live in the Dublin suburb it takes me nearly a hour to get into the city. For extra 30 minutes I can save 250k on house price! A lot of my colleagues can work from home now any way.

This morning my commute took about 40 mins (Raheny to Harcourt Street) I know if I lived in somwhere like Tullamore, Portlaoise, Carlow etc that my commute would not only be an extra 30 or 40 mins.

Unfortunately it's not that simple.

Mate of mine works from home 3 days a week and commutes from Kilkenny the other days, If he was driving and there was no traffic, It's about an 1 hour 30 mins.
But he's not driving and there is traffic, So on the bus it's about 2 hours 30 mins. And then he's a 15 minute walk to his Job.

And that's twice in one day!

And it's not just about being close to your job, there's load of other things to factor in
Proximity to:
Family
Friends
Schools
Hospitals
Parks/Greens
Shops
Recreational amenities
Etc

flas

grahambo wrote: »

This morning my commute took about 40 mins (Raheny to Harcourt Street) I know if I lived in somwhere like Tullamore, Portlaoise, Carlow etc that my commute would not only be an extra 30 or 40 mins.

Unfortunately it's not that simple.

Mate of mine works from home 3 days a week and commutes from Kilkenny the other days, If he was driving and there was no traffic, It's about an 1 hour 30 mins.
But he's not driving and there is traffic, So on the bus it's about 2 hours 30 mins. And then he's a 15 minute walk to his Job.

And that's twice in one day!

And it's not just about being close to your job, there's load of other things to factor in
Proximity to:
Family
Friends
Schools
Hospitals
Parks/Greens
Shops
Recreational amenities
Etc

Not all situations are the same, it could take you just an extra 40 minutes. Example my own.brother and partner were living in lucan,both working in city,one on baggot street other in Smithfield, it took my brother well over
1 hour and 10 minutes to get from lucan to Smithfield everyday with traffic on Dublin bus.

They moved back down to longford,he asked for a start time of hour earlier, they were paying €1200 a month rent on a 1 bed shoe box apartment, they bought a big house,used to be a b+b, got it for €105,000, put a small bit of money modernizing it and doing it up the way they wanted, they have a beautiful home with absolutely huge front and back gardens,on the outskirts of town and their mortgage is under half of what they were paying a month on rent,it takes him from door to door 1 hour 30 minutes to work, and the simple change of starting 1 hour earlier and finishing 1 hour earlier means he misses most traffic. For his house now in Dublin would cost up on 1 million,especially with the size of grounds it came with.its about quality of life at the end of the day.