Zimbabwe Coup

Atoms for Peace

Looks like it's the end of Mugabe's rule of Zimbabwe, with the military having previously threatened to intervene and now reports of explosions and soldiers on the streets looks like they're doing just that.

jacksie66

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Canis Lupus

Interesting to see what happens next. Will African Union step in or leave it be.

Varik

Hopefully it puts the fear of God in South Africa and they change direction.

Zimbabwe was always the worst case scenario and best avoided but SA seemed to have forgotten that.

AllGunsBlazing

Id imagine what comes next will involve a ruthless culling of supporters of the losing side and the winners behaving roughly in the same manner as the shower they deposed. Sport and the weather up next.

suicide_circus

Don't worry, the military took over state tv there to reassure everyone this is not a coup.

nice_guy80

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch than comrade Mugabe and family

Had to happen eventually. Hopefully it's as un-bloody as possible, all that can be hoped for really.

Gatling

Hopefully that's the end of his reign ,he's single handedly destroyed the country and the economy

Akrasia

They're claiming a 'bloodless transition' and that Mugabe is detained but safe

Hopefully it's just a moderate takeover of the ruling party rather than a full scale opposition coup.

Former Vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa is said to have support in government and those supporters were about to be purged by Mugabe to clear the way for his wife to succeed him, so this coup is probably better than allowing the Mugabe family tighten their grip on the Zimbabwean government.

biko

Hopefully whatever is coming is better than how it was.

suicide_circus

At least it seems to be fully domestic in nature. Can't blame the yanks if this goes tits up!

Irish Praetorian

suicide_circus wrote: »

At least it seems to be fully domestic in nature. Can't blame the yanks if this goes tits up!

Ah when has that stopped anyone blaming the yanks? Still an interesting development no doubt, I suspect we will find out if "couldn't be any worse" can actually be worse before long.

Ubbquittious

Twould be great to see this Mugabe shagger finally getting his comeuppance

HalloweenJack

To play devil's advocate for a minute: I wonder will we see a Burma-type situation where people were championing the opposition for years, it finally gets in and the whole Rohingya thing popped off leading to criticism of the very same people that outsiders campaigned for?

FWIW, I'll be happy to see the end of Mugabe as he destroyed that country while him and his family seeming to be doing just fine. I wonder will Tsvangari (sp?) come back into the picture.

murpho999

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Twould be great to see this Mugabe shagger finally getting his comeuppance

Don't forget it's the military who have supported Mugabe all through his dreadful presidency so I would not trust their motives at all in this.

Country needs a people's revolution to change the whole regime.

Permabear

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sjb25

suicide_circus wrote: »

Don't worry, the military took over state tv there to reassure everyone this is not a coup.

...

fixXxer

Speaking to family in Harare this morning, they say its business as usual about the place. Some military vehicles moving around the place but otherwise life going on as normal.

Hande hoche!

Pepsi presents New Rhodesia.

Ubbquittious

fixxxer wrote: »

Speaking to family in Harare this morning, they say its business as usual about the place. Some military vehicles moving around the place but otherwise life going on as normal.

It takes an awful lot to disrupt the daily hummadum-drum of modern life

fixXxer

Ubbquittious wrote: »

It takes an awful lot to disrupt the daily hummadum-drum of modern life

Kinda reassuring that. The in-laws are about 10 minutes by car away from Mugabe's house so really hoping things don't get crazy.

c_man

Akrasia wrote: »

They're claiming a 'bloodless transition'

All smotherings.

Hande hoche!

c_man wrote: »

All smotherings.

Just like Jimmy Carter.

Hande hoche!

Saying on Sky News that Grace Mugabe has left the country for Namibia.

Rumpy Pumpy

The problem with Zimbabwe is not too much socialism but not enough socialism.

Infini

Just another day in africa....

AllForIt

A coup in Africa means someone worse than the incumbent is taking over.

biko

Say what you will of Mugabe, but he's no Idi Amin Dada

Fred Swanson

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The_Valeyard

suicide_circus wrote: »

Don't worry, the military took over state tv there to reassure everyone this is not a coup.

First rule of Coup Club,

Tell everyone its not a coup.

seagull

biko wrote: »

Say what you will of Mugabe, but he's no Idi Amin Dada

Over the years, the atrocities committed under Mugabe's rule significantly outweigh what Idi Amin managed. Partly due, I suppose, to the length of time Mugabe has managed to hang onto power.

I presume the only reason Mugabe has never been hauled in front of the Hague is that he's in charge of an African country with no significant strategic resources. There is no crime that Milosevic committed that Mugabe hasn't done, except be European, and expected to behave in a civilised manner.

The Backwards Man

The change, it had to come.

Hande hoche!

Seems less violent than the Turkish attempt anyway.

diomed

Salisbury has a nice ring to it for a capital city.
That country needs a few political parties and democracy.

The_Valeyard

Something had to change, the situation in Zimbabwe was terrible. It should be the breadbasket of Africa, not an economic wasteland.

Huexotzingo

Mugabe must have run out of money to pay the army...

diomed

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Something had to change, the situation in Zimbabwe was terrible. It should be the breadbasket of Africa, not an economic wasteland.

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

Mr. CooL ICE

No Toto references yet?

Fred Swanson

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The_Valeyard

diomed wrote: »

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

Thats what happens when you beat, rape and murder all the white farmers out of your country and give the land to people who have no idea how to farm.

Mr. CooL ICE

Fred Swanson wrote: »

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'bout bloody time, Rosanna

uck51js9zml2yt

diomed wrote: »

Best land for thousands of miles, but they got rid of the farmers and gave it to party lackeys.

The Mozambiqans got it right giving the farmers a lot of land after they were kicked out of zim

jmayo

Anyone remember this ?

1985 folks.

I'm hearing only bad news from Radio Africa,
I'rn hearing only sad news from Radio Africa

They've still got trouble with a monster in the South
Heads buried deep in that lion's mouth
Like a jaw snapped shut, it keeps them apart
If that jaw got broke it would be a start.

The West still complains about the foreign aid
They'd do better to change the terms of trade.
More tanks than food in the Ogaden
It looks like Moscow got it wrong again.

Mozambique and Mugabe
Still got Frelimo I hear them say
But "Exchange" means... Recession" means",
It all means "Harder to take".
Tanzania should be moving up a gear
Instead they've got to step on the brake.

Can't stop a movement that's come this far
But "Lending" means."
"Interest" means",
"Harder to Fight"
Independence has a hidden expense
When the hands on the purse strings are white

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF79sN_8g3E

Skylinehead

Rule 0 for rulers: Keep the army happy.

daheff

suicide_circus wrote: »

At least it seems to be fully domestic in nature. Can't blame the yanks if this goes tits up!

Sure we can...and the Brits too.

You don't really understand how the blame game works, do you now?

Mutant z

The bastard deserves everything he gets for the huge misery he has inflicted on the country.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

Atoms for Peace wrote: »

Looks like it's the end of Mugabe's rule of Zimbabwe, with the military having previously threatened to intervene and now reports of explosions and soldiers on the streets looks like they're doing just that.

Remember, it is not a coup. :pac:

I love how the easiest way to tell there's been a coup is: the military puts a press statement saying there hasn't been a coup.

The Zimbabweans have a choice between disasters. Mugabe is no smaller a disaster than the military government that could replace him.

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Mugabe must have run out of money to pay the army...

Sort of.

Going to copy paste a conversation from my WhatsApp group. The one guy is a political buff.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita does a good job of explaining this sort of thing in The Dictator's Handbook. Basically, a common time for a regime to be overthrown is when the leader gets old or sick - not because he becomes at his job necessarily, but rather because people are part of the current "winning coalition" start to worry about who the successor will be, and worry that they won't be included in the successor's coalition - therefore some regimes become incentivized to try to quickly overthrow it while there's still a chance

The way that politicians often try to get around this is by creating political dynasties, so their dynastic successor can make it plausible to members of the current coalition to keep them on board when the transition comes.

From casual observation it seems like the succession issue is a bit of a mess. Last time I checked it seemed like Mugabe wanted to set up his wife as his chosen heir, even though she's quite popular with the rest of his coalition? Not sure what's the case now though...

Research in comparative politics shows that military regimes in Africa tend to be worse than civilian governments in every respect. They're worse in terms of human rights, they're worse in terms of economic management, they even have a terrible record for losing wars. If a successful military coup occurs, the best possible option is a quick transition to democracy. The worst possible scenario is that the military loses faith in all other institutions, and so tries to rule the country itself.

• Grace Mugabe was being lined up but it does seem that Mugabe made the mistake of not including the head of the army in these plans.
• There is maybe an opportunity here for SA and the AU to try to steer towards the first option, and away from second, if they're smart enough to take it.

seamus

Malaya Wet Dandruff wrote: »

The Zimbabweans have a choice between disasters. Mugabe is no smaller a disaster than the military government that could replace him.

Perhaps.

Coups aren't always a bad thing. It can lead to surprising reforms when someone just gets sick of a dictator's sh1t and manages to oust them. The guy who's next in line isn't always a despotic lunatic, he's just someone who's waiting for the despotic lunatic to die.

Even failed coups are often effective in damaging the current leadership's illusion of power, and/or bringing about reforms. Ireland's failed coup in 1916 is one example that brought about change. There was a failed one in Russia too, just before communism fell.

branie2

About time as well