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Fancies For Today III

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  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭jay1988


    Danny did not have much to show for his 4 rides so lets hope my main bet FOR JIM does the biz at 5.40.

    Seems you're not the only one on him, 10/1 into 7/2 on bet365. I'll have a small one on him for the interest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    jay1988 wrote: »
    Seems you're not the only one on him, 10/1 into 7/2 on bet365. I'll have a small one on him for the interest.

    You can have a little more on,this one is strongly fancied,my only worry is that the ground does not get too soft.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    2/1 now.. Some gamble


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,571 ✭✭✭bassy


    Ran out of gas


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    bassy wrote: »
    Ran out of gas

    The ground was good when i backed the horse at a nice price i kept an eye on the going as it changed to good- good to soft in places then good to soft before finally the official going was soft,those of us who lost our money will have to back the horse when conditions are right.

    A lot of planning went into today and if the race was run a week ago we would probably have a different result,Soft ground in the middle of august a few days after a heatwave!!


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  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The weather and the going are more motivation for me to ease off on the punting for a while.

    No bloody harm either.

    I wonder will we see any firm, or good to firm, firm in places from now, until 90% plus of going descriptions have
    soft in them; which we're probably due in a couple of months from now.

    Maybe another couple of heatwaves in the next 6 wks, or so. Hard to bloody know.

    Having said that, picked out two at the last to watch. Might go well on the ground and the prices.
    Each way squeaks is all, not much more.

    8.00 Windsor JUPITER 20/1 Gen
    Might be staying on late, some form on 7 on soft - but will he stay?
    &
    SHERWOOD FORRESTER 14/1 Boyle (bigger prices online books)
    A long absence to overcome - try and make all?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,181 ✭✭✭Lady Haywire


    ^ Haven't looked at racing in a while so just putting a fiver on Maykir in this last one for the craic!


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ^^^^^

    WD Lady H !


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,181 ✭✭✭Lady Haywire


    ^^^^^

    WD Lady H !

    SW form transferring to soft was the only reason I had for it, doesn't always work out that way :pac:


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SW form transferring to soft was the only reason I had for it, doesn't always work out that way :pac:

    :pac:

    That's the thing about big/biggish priced winners :D

    It rarely has to work out that way :)

    Good picking


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  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    2 more for me to watch at Fontwell later. Taking a break from punting is easy enough; if no accounts, or betting shops close by; but not watching the TV or looking at the form - not so much :)

    First one I think has a very good chance of winning -

    1.45 Fontwell DANTE'S VIEW 11/4 Boyle

    A castoff from the Stoute yard, and sent to George Baker's. Has had three runs for current trainer - the last of which was his first over obstacles. He doesn't have many that compete in the NH sphere, so I'm assuming that George thinks his charge has a decent career ahead of him over obstacles.

    He shaped very well on his Southwell outing, coming third over 2 miles, having made up a lot of ground from 2 out, and should know more this time. A couple of imponderables might be the extra 3fs, and will he stay - I don't see why he won't - and, as well as that, there is the going, which is supposedly good currently at Fontwell. If it does go soft I also think it will be okay, as he acquitted himself fine coming third at Ponty over a mile and a half last winter on the flat on soft to heavy or thereabouts.

    I think he's far better value than the Johnson ridden jolly, who seems to lead in his races only to get caught late on. Filou Des Issards has had 4 runs under rules, and all on soft ground over 2 miles. Has ran okay once on good, but that was in a 3 mile hunter chase where he finished third, so not reading much into that form. Something must be thought of him however, as he was subsequently sold for £42,000. I reckon he's a longer term chasing prospect.

    It would be no surprise to me to see the top two in the betting 'flip-flopping' and the selection going off as fav.

    At 11/8 Generally, Johnson's mount and 11/4 DANTE'S VIEW, there's no question in my mind which represents value.

    A win bet should provide punters with some entertainment value at least, and a good run for their money. Be very tempted to 'weigh-in' on a type like this, but with conditions being changeable, only the horse's 2nd run, and others who are not all there to make up the numbers, I'd rate this as a 2 star out of 5 bet.

    Also, while 11/4 is fair, it's not overly generous given the current evidence. To counter that though, if punter's feel that Johnson's mount won't be good enough, they might feel the selection should be somewhere around 10/11 - 6/5 :D

    Going from a reasonably strong, confident fancy to a rather speculative one in the second last at the same venue.

    5.20 Fontwell POETIC PRESENCE 50/1 PP

    This mare carries joint bottom weight of 10 stone minus Tabitha Worsley's 5lbs claim. I'm hanging my hat on the jockey trying to make all, using the light weight that she has, and after that just hoping for the best.

    At the price available, she's worth a tiny each way.



    POETIC PRESENCE 5.2O Fontwell a Non Runner


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    4.00 Beverley AMOURIE 18/1 Boyle

    16 runner handicap, so probably guaranteed 1/4 the odds 3 places in shops :(
    No doubt there will be a non runner, and the usual 1/5 the odds 4 places are rarely available in the bricks and mortar when the conditions are satisfied for quarter odds. Pity, because its selections like this where one is happy to give up the percentage in possible returns in exchange for the extra place.

    Of the filly's 10 runs, the most of them can be considered poor.

    The distance today is 10f on ground that is good. The only 2 relatively decent runs this filly has had were on her 2nd and third last starts. They were also her only 2 runs over 10f on turf; once on good, and the most recent of the two, on good to firm - good in places (which was also over C & D)

    Provided the going doesn't deteriorate, both those runnings would give her a chance of going close here today.

    3.30 Beverley KEEPUP KEVIN 6/1 Boyle

    A small win bet recommended on this one who should be near enough if good enough. Ran okay in a slightly better race over C & D 2 runs back, when not beaten far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Arecibo,1.15 York sees Danny ride at around his lowest riding weight and any skipped meals may turn out to be worth it as Arecibo loves these big field handicaps and the ground is fine.
    7 to 1 Pp online 6 places is good value and I backed it ew.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    It might be profitable to watch the group 3 at 2.15 today at York,Royal Scimitar is 2nd fav to beat some promising types in the race.

    That horse beat Varians LINE OF DEPARTURE by a neck on the 19th of july,the 4th and 5th have come out and won and LINE OF DEPARTURE has won its next two races.

    Line of Departure now runs in the nursery at 4.50 York,its a competitve race where a few have chances and a good run from Royal Scimitar would certainly point to the chance of the Varian horse and i know where i will be at 2.15 today,at the counter with my ew bet written out as the horses cross the line.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    2.15 result was inconclusive but
    Royal Scimitar ran well enough and it was a group 3 so I just had 20 ew Line of Departure a at 15 to2 in Bar One 4 places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,584 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    E/W Lucky 15

    Just in time 3.45 York
    Hedging 5.30 Bath
    Churchill Bay 4.50 York
    Fruits of glory 3.50 sligo


  • Registered Users Posts: 52,009 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Summer Moon wins. 20/1 everywhere in running but returns 18/1. Gangsters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    SETARHE 1.45 York has been running in good company since her 2nd behind super filly Dandalla at Ascot and in similar ground could cause a shock here at around 20/1.

    I backed LINE OF DEPARTURE today but he was taken out,would have a chance in the valuable sales race at 2.15 if taking his chance will not be out of it at around 16/1 PP
    SHELIR is one i backed a few times recently and he often finds trouble coming from behind,ran his best race at Ascot in june in a big field and is now rated 7 lbs lower with only 8 stone 4 lbs on his back.One of 4 Omeara entries he can cause a shock at 25/1 in a race where many have chances.

    An optimistic ew trixie for small money might pay dividends


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Shelir beaten a nose for 5th after setting the pace which was unusual for a hold up horse.

    I see PP are a standout price of 12/1 for the Marwin Koukash (who likes to win here) in the 8.oc at Chester, ARABIST ran a nice trial for this last time out behind a stablemate when giving the impression this trip would be ok,not on for a fortune but i could not resist having a tenner ew.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Yazaman was twice beaten a length and a quarter by Tactical and that is the best form in the Gimcrack at 2.45 York.
    Others at shorter prices are seen to have potential but I prefer solid form to "potential"and it is a plus that Yazaman is proven on good to soft ground.
    At an ew price Yazaman is my only bet today.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Got good word for FARHAM 4.30 Wol,expected to run really well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭unplayable


    Got good word for FARHAM 4.30 Wol,expected to run really well.

    bloodbath of a week all round


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    6.35 Wolves MERWEB

    Seems to be a very interesting and open Class 4 Handicap.

    Cases can be made for them all I feel for either win purposes,
    or drawing a line through them.

    The outsider MERWEB 50/1 Boyle/PP has a squeak here I feel.

    I think perhaps the trip could be a bit of a stretch, but on the plus side the
    grey gelding has a fair few decent runs on the Tapeta surface over shorter.

    Also, the selection is having his second run for Ron Harris, who might be able
    to eke out some improvement, as it came from the Heather Main yard, who
    probably isn't the World's greatest trainer.

    An open affair, but the tempting price makes this worth a small each way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Winners still hard to find for me at least.
    Roger Varian sends a strong team to York and I backed 4 of them Zabeel Prince I the 1.50,San Donato in the 3oc ,Fujaira Prince in the 3.40 and Fifth Position in the 4.40.

    I also backed Safe Voyage in the 3.oc York,Pp are money back 2nd 3rd or4th to the fav in that race as well as a few others inc the first race e so i backed them ew.


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RANCH HAND 3.40 York 18/1 PP

    Ebor Day!

    Ran alright last time over C & D. Has some good form on soft.
    Only the nine runs, could be unexposed. Trip should be perfect for the selection.
    I fancy him to fill one of the places. Going each way.


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And RANCH HAND finishes 6th :( I only got 5 places; apparently some paid 6 :D:o

    Will chance 2 at Chelmsford tonight

    7.55 ELJADDAAF 20/1 PP

    8.55 FALCONIDAE 9/1 PP

    Each way on these two

    Gluck


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 32,918 CMod ✭✭✭✭ShamoBuc


    And RANCH HAND finishes 6th :( I only got 5 places; apparently some paid 6 :D:o

    Yeah, PP paid 6 places. Always worth a check as the extra place quite often can make a real difference.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    Winners still hard to find for me at least.
    Roger Varian sends a strong team to York and I backed 4 of them Zabeel Prince I the 1.50,San Donato in the 3oc ,Fujaira Prince in the 3.40 and Fifth Position in the 4.40.

    I also backed Safe Voyage in the 3.oc York,Pp are money back 2nd 3rd or4th to the fav in that race as well as a few others inc the first race e so i backed them ew.

    An improvement,2 winners at nice prices,one placed at 15/2,Zabeel Prince should
    have been placed but Atzeni stopped riding and allowed the horse to coast home i suppose with the future in mind and he lost 3rd by a head.


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Had a look at the Wolves card tomorrow - at least the 'going' is unlikely to change.

    4.40 CAPPELLA FELLA 25/1 PP.

    A three year old, who has plenty of experience compared to most of those who are at the top of the betting. Inside draw in box 2 should help, provided a good pace on, as well as the jockey William Cox taking 3lb off. Came 3rd over C & D in Jan. Operating at the basement rating, it would appear there's not much 'room for manoeuvre' , but will take each race on its own merits, and give him a very good chance here. Price looks well tasty too.

    Will also do another in the same race.

    CASILLI 14/1 PP.

    1st time in a Handicap. Might want to be held up, with a view to staying on late, so the 12 box can help in this regard. Trip a bit of an unknown - first 2 runs were over 6fs. Last run was at Catterick over 7, which was a bit of an improvement; doing his best work at the end when making some headway staying on in a fast run race for the grade.

    Both of these each way the plan atm.

    gluck all


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  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And RANCH HAND finishes 6th :( I only got 5 places; apparently some paid 6 :D:o

    Will chance 2 at Chelmsford tonight

    7.55 ELJADDAAF 20/1 PP

    8.55 FALCONIDAE 9/1 PP

    Each way on these two

    Gluck

    Poor showing: Eljaddaaf breaks late, only to run on late for fifth. Horse ran well enough for his price, but, no 'run for our money' as he never looked like threatening for a top 3 spot.

    Falconidae, backed into 11/2, so not unfancied, only goes and buckles as soon as the gates open, and sends the jockey over the handlebars :(


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