Fancies For Today III

zimmermania

A few for tomorrow.

1.10 Lingfield RAINBOW MIRAGE 5/1 has a fair chance around 5/1 4 places PP is an ew bet.

3.20 Kempton LORD BADDESLEY 6/1 is back over hurdles naving been tried over fences and is an ew bet at 6/1.

Finally QUINTA DO MAR 2.40 Kempton 2.40 has a chance in the competitive Lanzarote hurdle if fully seeing out the trip (should get it).

A real outsider at 18/1 QUINTA can repay ew support PP and some other bookies going 6 places and that might be a bit generous.

zimmermania

Just one other at 22 to1,The Hollow Ginge 3 oc War could run well SAS and capable of winning this on best form.

Worth a small ew bet,I have a tenner ew on.

hudhastings

I have a nice fancy tomorrow Punch. Please people open up with info.

zimmermania

CASWELL BAY has dropped to a very good mark in the 1.oc at Chepstow today.

Trained by Evan Williams he ran a very good race behind Green Book ( a well backed fav when falling on sat in the valuable Lanzarote hurdle) following a layoff and while not as good last time when a 15 length 6th over 2 miles 3 furlongs 11 days ago here,he at least did run on which gives some hope that he will get the 3 miles today,though of course we cannot be certain.

The gelding has run several good races on soft and heavy on this track and won off 4 lbs higher here in january 2020.

Williams does well at his local track and his daughter takes off 5 lbs today so in the hope that he gets the 3 miles i have backed him ew at 10s.

zimmermania

Ran well to finish 2nd could have done with more assistance from the rider but she is a 5 lb claimer so that would be factored into the bet.

zimmermania

Heavy ground at Lingfield,if it passes an inspection,i hope it does as with plenty of money on offer some good horses turning up.

LOVE ENVOI has been running over longer trips but with the ground heavy this dour stayer may beat the more fancied ones over the shorter trip.

4/1 to win and 9/4 without the fav is good enough for me.

BROKEN HALO 3.OC won by a mile last time and can win this at around 5/2.

In the 3.35 HUDSON DE GRUGY can repay ew support for the in-form Gary Moore at 17/2 PP,a winner over cd a month ago Hudson should like the ground.

bookman2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118509856#Comment_118509856

nice start!

zimmermania

With such good class NH racing taking place it is hard to believe that the 3.40 at Lingfield (a handicap for fillies and mares) is worth £50,500 to the winner.

Umm Hurair is a 5/2 chance in a 14 runner race having won her last 3 races going up from 67 to 90 as a result,Ryan Moore rides the horse for the first time and she is sure to go off at a short enough price.

She is very bad value imo and i would rather lay her than back her as the 3 races she won were ordinary enough and she will find it hard off her new mark of 90 unless she has improved markedly.

One that may be worth backing is Roger Varian's TIMELESS SOUL who was behind Viola and Alba Rose lto,that was over one mile 3 furongs and Timeless Soul only faded in the final furlong.

10 furlongs suits her better and for my money her run behind Achelois over 10 furlongs at Goodwood last year is the best form on offer,Achelois is now rated 93 and TIMELESS SOUL could be well handicapped off 88.

Hopefully she is fit and ready to go and at 9/1 generally she is a decent ew bet.Lightly raced and a bit unexposed she could come out on top tomorrow.

'

zimmermania

A word of caution re TIMELESS SOUL,it is disappointing (unless she wins) to see the filly drift so much and it is possible she may not be fully tuned and today may well be a prep run for the very lucrative good friday meeting.

I am not suggesting she wont win,in fact i am backing her ew albeit for a smaller stake (15 or 20 ew) but if i am honest the drift is a worry.

With such a good pot she will be doing her best and i just hope she is sharp enough.

zimmermania

One of the guys who take an interest in this thread messages this evening saying he had not seen much from me on here lately so as a result i decided to try to make some sense of a couple of the big competitive races on saturday.

The Paddy Power chase 1.55 Cheltenham was the first race i looked at and i think it has a very disappointing entry of more or less a modest bunch of disappointing handicappers

They are such that i cannot see beyond the top weight MAGIC SAINT even though he has yet to sparkle this season,he ran his best race lto when a 12 lengths 4th when unfancied going off at 50/1.

He has plenty of form around here and has won over 2 miles here,but the form that makes him a very good bet is his 2nd over c and d last april staying on at the finish off a mark of 157. He had Coole Codey 10 lengths behind giving him 11 lbs and meets it at level weights tomorrow.

He had a wind operation after that run and 3 runs later off a mark of 147!!! he should be ready to win this big pot for Paul Nicholls who puts a useful 5 lb claimer up.Nap material ew priced up at 7/1 or 15/2 on ground he likes.

zimmermania

The other big race of interest is the Sky Bet Handicap Chase 3.20 Doncaster,PP is going 6 places ew on this 17 runner race and the best horse as far as i am concerned is FUSIL RAFFLES trained by N Henderson,the horse is only a 7 year old who has won 4 of his 7 chases and may not be finished improving yet.

Ran ok around Cheltenham last time despite making mistakes and was a good winner before that off a similar rating,the 6 places make RAFFLES FUSIL a reasonable ew bet at around 6/1.

zimmermania

Money back as cash for cardholders in the 1.55 at Pp as a free bet in the offices for non card holders all losers max 20quid.

Chancer3001

Jonjo o neill seems to just have the one mount today. Chepstow 3.30

Decent form. Decent horse. Likes the going.

Carrying a penalty tho.

So small cut each way at 8/1 in the hopes he's notbuust going there for the view

Chancer3001

Skybet payed 6 places. He came 6th. No harm no foul

zimmermania

Beaufort is the days best bet in the big handicap hire at Sandown 2.55.

Has run well a number of times over 2 and a half miles and this race over 3 miles is what he needs.

Very well handicapped with Jesuitique who is fancied and with Pp going 6 places this is a solid ew bet.

zimmermania

Hopeful venture

zimmermania

A winner at 4/1,2nd 11/4,2nd 7/2,2nd 15/2.Double the odds on the 4/1 winner and the bet calculator tells me i get €160.59 back,nothing to get excited about but at least its a profit today on my lucky 15

zimmermania

Tame enough cards tomorrow but i believe DARK DESIGN 4.55 Wol is a good bet at current odds of 2/1.

This horse won 3 times in ireland for John Murphy at Limerick,Gowran and Kilbeggan befor going to Diane Foster when he ran a respectable race in 4th over a mile at Dundalk.

Three weeks later he turns up in a 6 furlong at Chelmsford,trained by Henry Spiller when he came from a long way back to win by a cheeky neck off 53.

Ran off 55 a month later when given way too much to do finishing 3rd beaten 2 lengths running on well at the finish ridden by a good apprentice C Howarth,same pilot on board again tomorrow in a hands and heels apprentice race (no whips allowed).

DARK DESIGN is an easy ride and if ridden a bit closer to the pace should win this comfortably before moving up a grade.

Looks a very solid bet to me.

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382585#Comment_118382585

BROCTUNE RED drops to 64 in a class 6 in the 7.30.

Likes to come from well behind and should be able to get the better of this lot on a track he does well on.

zimmermania

Broctune looked a winner but just run out of it close home.

zimmermania

CICELY caused a bit of a shock 2 weeks ago when coming from the back to win an ordinary class 5 handicap at Wolverhampton getting up on the line.Everything may have fallen right for the filly that day as those going off too fast may have set it up for her.

Up only 3 lbs and with a good chance of a strongly run race again with a few front runners in the field CICELY may not have to improve to win again though there is every chance she will being lightly raced.

She is an ew price and is a decent bet in the5.15 at Wol.

zimmermania

All the 6s gone now but still some value at 9 to2 and it is possible she will drift.

zimmermania

Strange betting pattern drifting again now 15 to 2 so I had to have a few quid more on in Powers.

Hope she hasn't broken a leg.

thesandeman

Being well backed now.

realdanbreen

I'm getting a little nervous as I have Away with da fairies as part of a Yankee in the same race.

zimmermania

I got it right mostly,identified a well handicapped horse, backed it ew price went out to 15/2 and i backed it again.

Price contracts rapidly and horse goes off at 3/1 fav,reared up leaving the stalls an left around 10 lengths,tacks on to the main group and runs on well to be beaten less than a length.

zimmermania

Best bet Saturday goes at Wolverhampton 6.45.

Eleanor Dubh had its first race since coming from France when nearly getting back up again in a similar race at Wol 2 weeks ago.

Should win this and at 3 to1 is the days best bet and worth a decent ew bet.

zimmermania

Dinny Lacey ran well in a valuable chase in Limerick at Christmas and it would appear that the plan to come to Warwick was made soon after that.

Robbie Power comes over for just the one ride and the horse must have a realistic chance in the 3.15.

jamieon

Mod Edit

Warned and a months ban.

realdanbreen

I'd say zimmermania has forgotten more about horse racing than you will ever know.