Fancies For Today III

Keano

pearcider wrote: »

But anyway no problem putting it up.

Thanks! It’s very easy for anyone to say the backed winners, even if the bet is posted we like posters to say they’ve backed it before the race is ran.

Cherry_Cola

After a string of second places, of course I'd miss those tips! Ah well, great stuff and fair play for all who managed to get on!

Gone for Midnightly in the 9.10 Chelmsford, got 13/2 earlier.

CH3OH

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

After a string of second places, of course I'd miss those tips! Ah well, great stuff and fair play for all who managed to get on!

Gone for Midnightly in the 9.10 Chelmsford, got 13/2 earlier.

I had backed it as well 12/1 on betfair,, but the drift is worrying

Luap

Arcanada 11/1 looks big in the first at Chester tomorrow.

Small e/w

pearcider

I'm going to have a speculative punt on jukebox jive tomorrow in the very open 3.35. 28-1 available 4 places. Unlike a fair chunk of these horses, Jukebox will definitely stay the trip and surely has a squeek off bottom weight.

realdanbreen

As an aside, is there a formula for calculating a reverse forecast?

zimmermania

Low drawn horses have been doing well as usual in Chester and even in the long distance races it pays to be with those drawn low.

I am backing MAGIC CIRCLE in the Chester Cup over 2 miles 3 furlongs,bought by Koukash (to try to win this race i presume) ,has not run for 209 days but is surely laid out for this.

Ran well here last year in the race and with a good draw will take all the beating,5 places available in places so i will have a decent ew bet and a small saver on front runner Watersmeet,also drawn well.

The same owner can win the other race over the same trip,the 5 15 with ANGEL GABRIAL 9/1 with most bookies.Has not won for a while but continues to run well and is 19 lbs lower now than for his last win.

Getting on in years but still capable of winning,ANGEL GABRIAL is a very strong ew bet in my opinion especially as the draw is good in box 5,
American Gigolo can run well and is worth a small saver.

zimmermania

realdanbreen wrote: »

As an aside, is there a formula for calculating a reverse forecast?

A reverse f cast is 2 seperate bets for horses to finish first or 2nd in either order.

The forecast dividend cannot be calculated before the race as there are a complicated set of rules,number of runners sp of horses etc.

My method of trying toestimate what a forecast might pay in smallish fields is to multiply the odds of the first and second and if either horse is not fav add a bit more.You can obtain the exact formula by going into FLATSTATS.

zimmermania

PP money back if 2nd Chester so that is where the value might be.I put Dark Red 3oc Jabbaar 4 40 both 9 to2 with Magic Circle and Angel Gabriel in an ew lucky 15 and backed all 4 in ew singles

munster87

zimmermania wrote: »

Low drawn horses have been doing well as usual in Chester and even in the long distance races it pays to be with those drawn low.

I am backing MAGIC CIRCLE in the Chester Cup over 2 miles 3 furlongs,bought by Koukash (to try to win this race i presume) ,has not run for 209 days but is surely laid out for this.

Ran well here last year in the race and with a good draw will take all the beating,5 places available in places so i will have a decent ew bet and a small saver on front runner Watersmeet,also drawn well.

The same owner can win the other race over the same trip,the 5 15 with ANGEL GABRIAL 9/1 with most bookies.Has not won for a while but continues to run well and is 19 lbs lower now than for his last win.

Getting on in years but still capable of winning,ANGEL GABRIAL is a very strong ew bet in my opinion especially as the draw is good in box 5,
American Gigolo can run well and is worth a small saver.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/richard-fahey:-king-for-the-day/147484

A few comments by Fahey on today’s runners

montyrebel

zimmermania wrote: »

Low drawn horses have been doing well as usual in Chester and even in the long distance races it pays to be with those drawn low.

I am backing MAGIC CIRCLE in the Chester Cup over 2 miles 3 furlongs,bought by Koukash (to try to win this race i presume) ,has not run for 209 days but is surely laid out for this.

Ran well here last year in the race and with a good draw will take all the beating,5 places available in places so i will have a decent ew bet and a small saver on front runner Watersmeet,also drawn well.

.

I could kiss you

pearcider

Well done Zimmer I thought my nag had it there but Magic Circle absolutely destroyed that field. 8-1 a gift. Super pick.

zimmermania

Magic Circle did it really well and i am delighted with the 8/1 sp,money back on Dark Red as well as the place money,Jabbaar beaten 2 necks but crucially placed and stake lost on Angel Gabrial one who is past his best.A good day overall almost doubling my money on the ew lucky 15 and i am looking at what i think are a few that offer value for tomorrow.

zimmermania

WHATAKNIGHT 2oc Haydock was 2nd last time out when i backed him in a field of 23 three weeks ago at Cheltenham over a similar trip.Is 7/1 and 15/2 and is a good ew bet.

QUEEN OF TIME fell a week ago when she clipped heels when coming to win her race,has no more to do in the 3 25 at Ascot,it is rare enough to fall in a flat race and the filly can win tomorrow at around 7/2.

QUEST FOR LIFE was beaten 19 lengths 3 weeks ago over 2 1/2 miles at Ayr.Well beaten that day in a much better race i believe that form is good enough to win the 4 05 at Hexam.Harry Teal a 7 lb claimer rode that day and rides again tomorrow.QUEST FOR LIFE has plenty of useful form and is sure to go well in a poor enough race is freely available at 5s, could drift and is a good ew bet.

CAPTAIN MOWBRAY was second at 10/1 and helped make my lucky 31 very profitable last saturday.Goes over the same distance tomorrow and is worth a bet,a similar drift from the 4/1 at present would be nice.Goes in the 4 40 at Hexam.

A few ew singles and an ew lucky 15 is what i will be doing.

abarkie

John Constable E/w Haydock today for me

montyrebel

went with the e/w lucky 15 on zimmers tips, if they all fail you can blame me usually I can stop a train with my betting

zimmermania

Did the bets as posted plus a few more the 3 25 at Ascot is a bit of a problem Urban Fox could run well there.

gooseygander

zimmermania wrote: »

Did the bets as posted plus a few more the 3 25 at Ascot is a bit of a problem Urban Fox could run well there.

Queen of time could go well here, horse fell last time out when going well. One to keep in mind. Tipped up elsewhere also

Timberrrrrrrr

montyrebel wrote: »

went with the e/w lucky 15 on zimmers tips, if they all fail you can blame me usually I can stop a train with my betting

Have done the same lol, fingers crossed for us all.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Did the bets as posted plus a few more the 3 25 at Ascot is a bit of a problem Urban Fox could run well there.

When going over the race again i figured Urban Fox was the better option,too late for me at the time as i was on Queen of Time.

It goes to show that one cannot do too much study of a race and if i had been a bit more thorough i would have been on the winner.

Cherry_Cola

One for tomorrow. Ministerforsport in the 14.55 Killarney.

Came home like a freight train last time to demolish the field, 75% win rate and is currently 10/1 which I suspect will not last. 30 e/w for me. 4 places with Paddy.

Cherry_Cola

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

One for tomorrow. Ministerforsport in the 14.55 Killarney.

Came home like a freight train last time to demolish the field, 75% win rate and is currently 10/1 which I suspect will not last. 30 e/w for me. 4 places with Paddy.

Now a non-runner.

zimmermania

A few for monday that may offer a bit of value.

ATTAIN 2 55 Wol has won 3 times already this year and is only 3 lbs above his last win,did not get the best of runs lto and at around 7-8/1 is value ew ridden again by his 7 lb claimer.

MOONBI CREEK ran well in 5th last time after an absence of 2 years.Having a first run for his trainer Mike Hammond on that occasion it is surprising that 14 days later he has a new trainer Mrs Barclay.All this and the chance the horse might bounce on the 2nd run back suggests a drift from the current price of 15/2 and i will back it ew.Dropping back to 7 furlongs will suit.Wol 5 oc.

When looking at the replay of the Moonbi Creek race i noticed that JOYS DELIGHT ran a very good race in 4th when tenderly handled and held up wide before running on very well in 4th beaten a length and a quarter.Ridde again by R holmes claiming 7 lbs JOYS DELIGHT is a good bet for shrewd connections in the 5 35 Wol around 9/2.

QUEEN RABAB won for Fozzy Stack 12 days ago and with a good 5lb claimer on board can win the 6 25 at Tipp,is around 4/1 now and may well go off shorter.

zimmermania

It is not a lot but every little helps.PP is money back (usual terms) if HARRY ANGEL wins the 3 30
at York,a tenner max free bet. This does not apply in offices afaik.

I put my tenner on Brando 9/2 rather than last years winner Tasleet because Brando has had a run and is better suited by the ground.

hurler97

zimmermania wrote:

It is not a lot but every little helps.PP is money back (usual terms) if HARRY ANGEL wins the 3 30 at York,a tenner max free bet. This does not apply in offices afaik.

zimmermania wrote:

I put my tenner on Brando 9/2 rather than last years winner Tasleet because Brando has had a run and is better suited by the ground.

Tasleet non runner

zimmermania

hurler97 wrote: »

Tasleet non runner

A tenner on Brando looks a bet to nothing (almost) now.

zimmermania

EDWARD LEWIS has a sporting chance in the 2 20 at York,was a very good 2nd here in a good handicap at the Ebor meeting last year and should be spot on after a good 6th at Pontrefact a month ago.PP going 5 places so an ew bet at 11/1.

LARCHMONT LAD has top weight in the 4 05 at York even though he has never run in a handicap.
Not disgraced in the 2000 gns last year,the horse has only run in group and listed class since winning his maiden first time out.Worth an ew bet at 11/1.

GRACELAND runs in the 5 35 at York and has a good chance of getting home in front in a tough handicap over 2 miles.The mare was 2nd in this race last year and also won over 2 miles at Ascot so stamina is not in doubt.A good run over 2 miles at Kempton lto should have her spot on for this.PP is going an extra place in this and she might be value at 11/2 and could drift a little.

Danny Tudhope rides the three horses and is in good form,the first 2 are for his boss David Omeara whose horses are running well and the last one is trained by Michael Bell.

I did an ew trixie online (prices guaranteed) and will have a few ew singles on tomorrow.

mailburner

2.20 el astronaute 15/2 ew 5 places bet365 (itv offer race also)

rarely runs a bad one

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

2.20 el astronaute 15/2 ew 5 places bet365 (itv offer race also)

rarely runs a bad one

that winning gives me a free bet in the 2.55 so coronet it is

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

that winning gives me a free bet in the 2.55 so coronet it is

let's jinx this by sticking it here