Fancies For Today III

4068ac1elhodqr

Generally ok today, more interested in longer-term accas than these things anyway, rarely ever do win only selections.



Aside from e/w Golf, keen on the Novelty w-only line selections of Swed Dem's to pull in @2.1 on 9th Sept.
More of a wild card is draw (inc HC+6) for the big GAA bogball game on 2nd Sept @13(17)+/- as line item also.

mailburner

2.25 desert skyline 20/1 ew

w/o the fav 6/1

backed this 15 mins ago (posted in racing thread) price shortened a little since

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

2.25 desert skyline 20/1 ew

w/o the fav 6/1

backed this 15 mins ago (posted in racing thread) price shortened a little since

4th

mailburner

3.0 legends of war 14/1 ew

saver on space traveller 7/2

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

3.0 legends of war 14/1 ew

great run but found one too good

mailburner

6.35gd oeil de tigre 8/1 ew

pretty much doubled in price since last night, great course form (1112) and I think had sds been on this last time it would have won
would rather see a different jock on though but price way too big for me

ANDREWMUFC

mailburner wrote: »

6.35gd oeil de tigre 8/1 ew

pretty much doubled in price since last night, great course form (1112) and I think had sds been on this last time it would have won
would rather see a different jock on though but price way too big for me

Connections must have laid it if he’s doubled in price

Lady Haywire

mailburner wrote: »

6.35gd oeil de tigre 8/1 ew

pretty much doubled in price since last night, great course form (1112) and I think had sds been on this last time it would have won
would rather see a different jock on though but price way too big for me

I'm torn between him & Baron Bolt. Might go with BB mainly for the jockey.

realdanbreen

mailburner wrote: »

3.0 legends of war 14/1 ew

saver on space traveller 7/2

How did your 'saver ' space traveller get on?

mailburner

realdanbreen wrote: »

How did your 'saver ' space traveller get on?

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2018-08-24/york/482997/al-basti-equiworld-gimcrack-stakes-group-2

have you picked you first winner this year yet?

nice to see you contributing in your usual fashion :cool::cool:

mailburner

realdanbreen wrote: »

Will be going with Family fortunes @ 6-1 today. 3.30 Newbury.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2018-06-14/newbury/478460/comax-handicap-str

realdanbreen wrote: »

I'm a little smitten by Leroy Leroy in the 6.55 Sandown

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2018-08-01/sandown/485105/club188-exclusive-offers-ebf-novice-stakes-plus-10

14/6+1/8

2 'fancies' since june 14...well we know how they went don't we dan:D

great posting buddy keep it up :cool::cool::cool:

I says

Stowaway Sarah in the last at Kilbeggan e/w

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

6.35gd oeil de tigre 8/1 ew

pretty much doubled in price since last night, great course form (1112) and I think had sds been on this last time it would have won
would rather see a different jock on though but price way too big for me

jesus! won't win races like that

zimmermania

Altyn Orda at 4s is a decent ew in the 1 55 at Goodwood Dell Arca. SUEDOIS also have good chances today.

Timberrrrrrrr

zimmermania wrote: »

Altyn Orda at 4s is a decent ew in the 1 55 at Goodwood Dell Arca. SUEDOIS also have good chances today.

2.05 goodwood

mailburner

on altyn orda also at 4s safe ew bet imo

1.50 seniority 6/1 ew

3.40 stratum 7/2 ew

trixie also


2.25y making miracles 7/1 ew
3.15 aces 14/1 ew


I'd be happy with at least two :P

4068ac1elhodqr

Fancy #1 (1350) via:
MBack if 2/3rd: C'Ironside @11,
Alt MBack if 2nd to SPFav Sen @7.
Alt Acca spread build (golf etc 4from5 e/w) using the fav (LG)

Opposing fancy #1 TBC, but will avial of 7pl in the 15:40.
Opposing fancy #2 TBC for the 4.35 TBC.

munster87

Cohen Quiet Kite wrote: »

Fancy #1 (1350) via:
MBack if 2/3rd: C'Ironside @11,
Alt MBack if 2nd to SPFav Sen @7.
Alt Acca spread build (golf etc 4from5 e/w) using the fav (LG)

Opposing fancy #1 TBC, but will avial of 7pl in the 15:40.
Opposing fancy #2 TBC for the 4.35 TBC.

Did you back chief ironside?

4068ac1elhodqr

munster87 wrote: »

Did you back chief ironside?

Yep, think refund is in progess, takes about 20mins usually.
Also the short fav LG for the acca array builds.

4068ac1elhodqr

Opp' fancy #1 1540: (7pl Sky) Weekender @12.
Tempted with a few others due to the 7pl e.g. Crowned Eagle@10, Dylan Mouth@26 etc
- just for the fourfold+ e/w accas
Golf e.g. Green&Koepla etc, and other racing (place enhancements only).

Opp fancy #2 16:35 (4pl inc W/O) 'Red isn't a bad choice at all, but will still oppose incase the selector of this is cursed with a full month long run of bad luck.
BlastofMagic (W/O RNS) win only @6.5 might do.

Also in the same G'Daugher@5.5 (WO) double (@11.5), with Novelty(Pol) selection of SweDemo @2.1.
The 9th Sept may be a wake up call for the lefties in Sweden. Double market only avail on PP.
Moved up to 3rd most likely to leave the EU now, after Greece/Italy.

4068ac1elhodqr

Another decent enough day full of wins, refunds, voids, pending and couple of misses^.
Should state my 'opposing bets' are directly choosen to oppose the 'boy over on the other thread.
Short experiemnt (Day3/7), but would be concerned for the 100 or so whatsapp followers if -38pts over there.

MyStubbleItches

Cohen Quiet Kite wrote: »

Another decent enough day full of wins, refunds, voids, pending and couple of misses^.
Should state my 'opposing bets' are directly choosen to oppose the 'boy over on the other thread.
Short experiemnt (Day3/7), but would be concerned for the 100 or so whatsapp followers if -38pts over there.

What are you on about? How the hell is anyone supposed to follow what you're doing? Your posts are drivel. If you want to make a point of 'directly opposing' Del, you should do it directly, not be a coward on a different forum.

BumperD

Looking at what race Del selects, then using that as a starting point to select a race to bet on is a very strange selection method, in fact, it makes zero sense.

4068ac1elhodqr

BumperD wrote: »

Looking at what race Del selects, then using that as a starting point to select a race to bet on is a very strange selection method, in fact, it makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me, whatever he selects I simply avoid. An unusual method, yes indeed, but might have some validity, recommend everyone have a go at it.

Couldn't be bothered with a new thread as only running for 7 days, and more interested in larger, long-term, accumulators, with enhancements and risk reductions anyway, than single selections.

munster87

Cohen Quiet Kite wrote: »

Makes sense to me, whatever he selects I simply avoid. An unusual method, yes indeed, but might have some validity, recommend everyone have a go at it.

Couldn't be bothered with a new thread as only running for 7 days, and more interested in larger, long-term, accumulators, with enhancements and risk reductions anyway, than single selections.

From what I’ve seen of the other thread he usually picks long odds selections? Most of them you might naturally end up avoiding anyway.

4068ac1elhodqr

munster87 wrote: »

From what I’ve seen of the other thread he usually picks long odds selections? Most of them you might naturally end up avoiding anyway.

Often enough yes, but also short 'info stuff' (whatever that is), which can be very short prices and still presents a very mixed bag of results.

As other have mentioned over there he's raised stakes (why now indeed: desperation perhaps?). Has also mentioned 'luck' (over logic) as a factor in decision making, eh?

Many selections don't avail of risk reductions e.g. W/O's or availing of 2 extra places (3:40 yesterday). And now has issued what can be classed as an 'early profit warning' for -70pts expectantancy. I'd worry for the 100+ Whatsapp followers (I'm not one btw).

Current estimates (since introducing 30pts) is negative (-)1,155 on a 7.7% win rate. The previous run to this was also negative circa -500 and was abandoned.

Sure may have had good run back in 2014 or whenever, but you're only as good as the last selection made.

4068ac1elhodqr

Day 4 of the opposition presents an 2pt e/w in Cart 16:25 - why am not sure.
Much prefer CourtKing@5 in the next 17:00 and with 4pl too if e/w.

Anyhoo:
i) Single: Raise A Spark (to win by 3 lengths+) (boost) @6.5
i) Single&Double: F'Ex @5.5 (inc. F'Ins) with another 10/1 type double (like the 25th) with the SweDems@2.1.
ii) For the (4/5) e/w acca array builds (CK etc) going for double-digits of Dr.R (W/O and still 3pl).

Usually don't bother with Mondays, but if an attractive L31 appears (other of extra place enhancements),
can mix up that 4.25 up with the '3pl Alt W/O' via Alderbrook Lad.

As indicated, between now and 9th Sept, focusing all doubles on the Democrats of Sweden
if there is sub 2.1, or too much equity accumulating, can always offset and back the Socials if 2.0+.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

on altyn orda also at 4s safe ew bet imo

1.50 seniority 6/1 ew

3.40 stratum 7/2 ew

trixie also


2.25y making miracles 7/1 ew
3.15 aces 14/1 ew


I'd be happy with at least two :P

none of these even looked like placing never mind winning

4.25cart raise a spark 4/1 almost doubled in some places from last night

three places 6/5 bet 365 seems huge but it might be drifting for a reason, some are 4/6 on this

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

none of these even looked like placing never mind winning

4.25cart raise a spark 4/1 almost doubled in some places from last night

three places 6/5 bet 365 seems huge but it might be drifting for a reason, some are 4/6 on this

was almost counting my money turning for home but couldnt get past
the eventual winner

4068ac1elhodqr

Day 5 of the opposition leads to the 16:35, a short fav @3.75 was selected last night (with only 3pl) from 16 runners.
Today the price has drifted @4, and even with an extra place offered this morning, will opt instead for WBKing@5.5 on good ground.

A small cautious double with a regular Nordic novelty-political market (up to @2.5), so 13.75 double.
A new politics market arrives today and comes in the form of Sean Gallagher@6, an alt to the potential complexity up in Sweden.
(Single only market, and can't be accumulated).

Alt pick in the primary race is PowerDown @7 4pl (W/O too @4.5 for regular places).
Add in two lads from the Golf. Zalzar@4 4pl in the previous and 14:20 Valentino Sunrise@3.5 4pl
all equating to a 'max place array' of 5 selections to form an e/w fourfolds.