Fancies For Today III

jobeenfitz

Mpex kid, 5.45 Galway. 10/30.

SonOfGoat

3.30 Market Rasen, Black Anthem, horse is quite short around 8/11 but nothing much in the race and good capable amateur on board. I'm still backing the horse to win.

zimmermania

Michael O'callaghans Trusted Ally us meant to be smart in the first at Gal 4.10

3.50 Redcar JUPITER ROAD (Rowan's free three ) 25/1Gen.

Has a better chance methinks than form figures suggest.

Won over almost a mile last year at Bellewstown when with JP O'Brien.
That was off a rating of 79. The gelding is now down to 60. He also has the help of Rowan Scott's 3lb claim; which he is still entitled to use today as he was declared to ride before he ran out the apprentice allowance. So 3lb more well in.

Horse has been running mainly over 10fs since he left for Nigel Tinkler's.
The mile today should suit.

A small each way to play for 1 of the 5 places on offer, or perhaps win.

Gluck

No joy with Jupiter Road sadly.

Tuesday Ayr 1.30 Rapid Russo 10s generally with the books that have the race priced up.

There's a few others in here with solid chances of making the frame on the formbook; but none with outstanding winning claims.

This 3yr old has had eight runs so far - 6 over 5f and 2 over 6f, on ground with differing going descriptions. Different tactics have also been employed.
The gelding has won once, and that was over 5f on soft ground at Catterick last August.

The going should be on the soft side tomorrow; so perhaps forceful tactics employed, with the jockey Connor Beasley trying to make all.

I think this one is perhaps unexposed, and appeals as a win bet.

Gluck

but1er

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Tuesday Ayr 1.30 Rapid Russo 10s generally with the books that have the race priced up.

There's a few others in here with solid chances of making the frame on the formbook; but none with outstanding winning claims.

This 3yr old has had eight runs so far - 6 over 5f and 2 over 6f, on ground with differing going descriptions. Different tactics have also been employed.
The gelding has won once, and that was over 5f on soft ground at Catterick last August.

The going should be on the soft side tomorrow; so perhaps forceful tactics employed, with the jockey Connor Beasley trying to make all.

I think this one is perhaps unexposed, and appeals as a win bet.

Gluck

Unlucky there

^^^^^

On another day, who knows? That's racing

Good luck to anyone who found that winner though

Back to the drawing board and I'm starting off with a speculative one first for tomorrow.

12.00 Bangor WATCHMAN 100/1 Gen

Only the one run over hurdles where he was held up and made up some ground only to weaken in the latter stages. That race was over about 3fs longer, and, coupled with the easier going tomorrow the selection should hopefully see out the shorter trip on only his second hurdles start.

Has some placed form on the flat in Ireland at trips ranging from between 10 - 12fs on softer going; so that is mainly what I'm basing my opinion on.

So it has to be a small each way for me at the prices.

In the same race I think the underpriced favourite Isaac Wonder is vulnerable. He's had 10 runs in the national hunt sphere - 6 hurdle and 4 chase starts - and has won twice over the larger obstacles but 0/6 over hurdles.

He is best priced 4/6, and, at that it's a lay recommendation from me. Maybe also a place-lay risking perhaps half those win-lay potential profits to boost coffers further.
* It's all economic to me, as I don't have an online account, but such a bet would appeal if I did.

A few on the flat at Thirsk.

5.00 MACHREE 4/1 Gen

This consistent mare rarely runs a bad race. Small win bet as the price isn't as big as I hoped.

6.00 LORTON 20/1 PP

Won over 7fs last time at Wolves, and also has some decent form on turf. I don't know why her price is so big here, but it's plenty big enough for an each way bet.

8.30 CAMAHAWK 5/2 Gen

Owned by Trevor Hemmings this gelding is having his 5th run on the flat. Presumably T Hemmings wants to get a win into him before he sends him hurdling. The price isn't great however, and a small win bet here.

*Both Machree and Camahawk are win only bets for me, even, if as I hoped they were both a couple of points bigger.

Gluck

Chancer3001

Paddleyourowncanoe is a horse i like.

Runs tomorrow in the 2.30 in bangor at 3s.

Up against the fancied bandsman but i reckon he'll do it.

zimmermania

Winner finding has not been easy at Goodwood or Galway so i looked further afield for a yankee or lucky 15 today,there is a nice card at Bangor and i have settled on 4 that i am hoping will do the biz.

2.oc HATTAB,running his race until a mistake knocked him back last time and will have a chance today.
2.30 BANDSMAN was only caught in the final stride last time after jumping the last 6 lengths in front,should win today.
3.oc FOR PLEASURE an easy winner last time should be ahead of the handicapper despite top weight under a 7 lb penalty.
3.30 Consistent WISECRACKER can get back to winning way in the 3.30.

I like marathon races on the flat and the 1.45 Goodwood gives a chance to an old fav of mine COEUR DE LION who runs well in theses big handicaps will carry my ew money 5 places.SEINSATIONAL and TRUE DESTINY were 2nd and 3rd in this last year and Luke Morris rode SEINSATIONAL for the first time lto over a much shorter trip.
Rides again today when the horse has only a featherweight to carry and that looks something of a plan to me so i will have a little ew.

For those who are more adventurous add in TRUE DESTINY and do small stake full perm combination forecasts and tricasts (6 bets each making a total of 12 for whatever unit stake one wants) to get a biggish win.

hefferboi

zimmermania wrote: »

Winner finding has not been easy at Goodwood or Galway so i looked further afield for a yankee or lucky 15 today,there is a nice card at Bangor and i have settled on 4 that i am hoping will do the biz.

2.oc HATTAB,running his race until a mistake knocked him back last time and will have a chance today.
2.30 BANDSMAN was only caught in the final stride last time after jumping the last 6 lengths in front,should win today.
3.oc FOR PLEASURE an easy winner last time should be ahead of the handicapper despite top weight under a 7 lb penalty.
3.30 Consistent WISECRACKER can get back to winning way in the 3.30.

I like marathon races on the flat and the 1.45 Goodwood gives a chance to an old fav of mine COEUR DE LION who runs well in theses big handicaps will carry my ew money 5 places.SEINSATIONAL and TRUE DESTINY were 2nd and 3rd in this last year and Luke Morris rode SEINSATIONAL for the first time lto over a much shorter trip.
Rides again today when the horse has only a featherweight to carry and that looks something of a plan to me so i will have a little ew.

For those who are more adventurous add in TRUE DESTINY and do small stake full perm combination forecasts and tricasts (6 bets each making a total of 12 for whatever unit stake one wants) to get a biggish win.

Terrible ride from Bryony Frost on Wisecracker.

Tomorrow's lively one

5.30 Musselburgh TRUE HERO 9/1 PP

This one often travels well in his races, and goes in a Class 6 Handicap for the first time. Was rated as high as 80 when having his first run after leaving the Haggas yard. Has yet to win for Nigel Tinkler; but, now rated 66 I feel he's good enough to carry topweight in this low grade. The good ground should suit, or perhaps even good to soft would be okay too. Anyway, it's very hard to predict the weather but there's enough to like to make this a confident win bet. The selection is currently a very tasty 9/1 in Power's.

Gluck

pottokblue

My big thursday fancy is FANCYBLUE win the nassau filly stakes 1515 goodwood current price 5/2

but1er

pottokblue wrote: »

My big thursday fancy is FANCYBLUE win the nassau filly stakes 1515 goodwood current price 5/2

Good shout, dug in deep

6.45 Galway HEARTS ARE TRUMPS

Going with the outsider of JP's to fill one of the 5 places on offer.

Has won before at Galway, and finishes in the first 4 or 5 as often as not
in his races.

At 50/1 PP it will do me here.

7.30 Muss ANNIEMATION 22/1

C & D winner last year on good.
Small win bet here.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

7.30 Muss ANNIEMATION 22/1

C & D winner last year on good.
Small win bet here.

Withdrawn after rearing in box

zimmermania

The Golden Mile handicap 2.45 Goodwood is usually won by younger higher rated horses from the lower half of the draw these days and the race is now attracting higher rated horses and it usually goes to well fancied horse,though favs have a poor enough record.
One who fits the bill for me is Sir Busker who is in excellent form and ran a blinder over 7 furlongs lto.

Going back up to a mile is in his favour and i have backed him ew at 6 to1 4 places Pp and expect him to win.

pottokblue

I think Young Fallon might finish the month with a firecracker WIN L15 at Wolves
Zoetic, Easternstar, Freshsnow, Museedorsay

unplayable

zimmermania wrote: »

The Golden Mile handicap 2.45 Goodwood is usually won by younger higher rated horses from the lower half of the draw these days and the race is now attracting higher rated horses and it usually goes to well fancied horse,though favs have a poor enough record.
One who fits the bill for me is Sir Busker who is in excellent form and ran a blinder over 7 furlongs lto.

Going back up to a mile is in his favour and i have backed him ew at 6 to1 4 places Pp and expect him to win.

what in the world was that from oisin

but1er

unplayable wrote: »

what in the world was that from oisin

were would you like him to go? he was crusing off and jockey in front boxed him in. very unlucky..

unplayable

but1er wrote: »

were would you like him to go? he was crusing off and jockey in front boxed him in. very unlucky..

ah stop he gave himself one route which was right in by rail which was packed and is too risky. i love him as a jockey. he botched the ride on kameko completely. we should be able to criticize them if they go wrong. watch him call himself out on it later.

gooseygander

but1er wrote: »

were would you like him to go? he was crusing off and jockey in front boxed him in. very unlucky..

HE had himself in a very bad position, needed a fair bit of luck to have gotten a gap through there, would have needed Moses to part a gap through there for him. Jockey must take most blame here imo

Glass Slippers e/w 14s 3.15

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Glass Slippers e/w 14s 3.15

give it over great tipping

famagusta

Could they not put in a cut away rail in Goodwood, some amount of hard luck stories

but1er

oisin murphy loves the last race of the day..

pottokblue

So did Nina back in her jumping days. I fancy Mountainpearl to win in the next at lingfield

pottokblue

Tattoo was not in my L15 win Easternstar in the next at Wolverhampton