Will Leo be the shortest serving taoiseach in history?

_Kaiser_

trellheim wrote: »

I'm interested in the other view . Ignore the substantive issue of McCabe for a moment. If Enda was still Taoiseach a car would have arrived at her house one night last week for a quiet chat and the next morning everyone would have moved on.

This is politics and is the game understood by all . What is the motivation for keeping her ? That is the part I cannot understand.

As I said above, the only things I can think of is either there's more to come that can be pinned on her, or there's more people involved and they're terrified she'll spill the beans if pushed out.

Can't see anything else that would be worth the risk of Leo/FG collapsing the Government and forcing a GE over.

And either way, that's extremely worrying for the rest of us and our ability to trust in the agencies involved.

FrancieBrady

trellheim wrote: »

I'm interested in the other view . Ignore the substantive issue of McCabe for a moment. If Enda was still Taoiseach a car would have arrived at her house one night last week for a quiet chat and the next morning everyone would have moved on.

This is politics and is the game understood by all . What is the motivation for keeping her ? That is the part I cannot understand.

Apparently Leo is only 'learning the dark arts'
Shoulda got Enda in for grinds.

Nettle Soup

Hitman3000 wrote: »

A poll of a 1000 carried out for the Journal and CB live by Amarach research found that 33% of respondents put the blame on FG for a potential GE, whilst 28% apportioned the blame on FF. So FG's strategy of blaming FF for their current mess doesn't seem to wash with the electorate.
The poll results are available from yesterday's Journal.ie.

If anyone listened to the Buttimer (FG) interview on Radio 1 this morning, it would be 100% blame on FG. He could not answer simple questions about the missing tribunal information. He just read from a script.

tigger123

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I don't entirely disagree with you, but what does it say for FG when they have allowed SF and FF to hold the moral high ground.

What does it say for FG when their leader seems either unwilling or very possibly unable to remove the primary cause of this latest mess?

Regardless of who exposed what, who tabled what, the problem (and indeed solution) today sits entirely with FG

I dont think they really hold the high moral ground. Does anyone take their position seriously?

He is certainly able to remove her. In fact, it's becoming harder and harder to support her, but he's too far down that road at this stage, even if he wanted to he can't get rid of her now.

But he doesn't have to. He has FF in a bind, and the ball is in their court. He's made it clear they won't shift, so it's up to FF.

FrancieBrady

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As I said above, the only things I can think of is either there's more to come that can be pinned on her, or there's more people involved and they're terrified she'll spill the beans if pushed out.

Can't see anything else that would be worth the risk of Leo/FG collapsing the Government and forcing a GE over.

And either way, that's extremely worrying for the rest of us and our ability to trust in the agencies involved.

The thought occurred this morning, what if there is a massive trump card to be played yet. FF involvement at some level.

This story has had everything and has swung around several times, nothing would suprise me.

Jawgap

trellheim wrote: »

I'm interested in the other view . Ignore the substantive issue of McCabe for a moment. If Enda was still Taoiseach a car would have arrived at her house one night last week for a quiet chat and the next morning everyone would have moved on.

This is politics and is the game understood by all . What is the motivation for keeping her ? That is the part I cannot understand.

Either naivete - in that Leo feels bound to her having given her his unqualified support, thus leaving it to her to proffer her resignation rather than him having to sack her.....

......or pragmatism - she's due before the Charleton Commission in January - perhaps as others have suggested it's preferable - as LBJ famously said - to keep her in the tent?

...and yes, I reckon you're right, if this involved a more experienced Taoiseach, an emissary would've been sent with the proverbial pistol and bottle of whiskey!

Hitman3000

Nettle Soup wrote:

If anyone listened to the Buttimer (FG) interview on Radio 1 this morning, it would be 100% blame on FG. He could not answer simple questions about the missing tribunal information. He just read from a script.

As said yesterday if you put a copy of the TV guide in a TD's hands they'd read it out loud to its conclusion without knowing what they had just read.

seamus

trellheim wrote: »

This is politics and is the game understood by all . What is the motivation for keeping her ? That is the part I cannot understand.

He dived in too early with his support for her. He can't really turn on her without a good reason, or the rest of the cabinet/party will worry that Leo is a flaker who won't back them up when the going gets tough.

trellheim

Leo was himself cast out for a while by Enda. This is the only motivation I can see - that he'd vowed never to do the same perhaps

_Kaiser_

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The thought occurred this morning, what if there is a massive trump card to be played yet. FF involvement at some level.

This story has had everything and has swung around several times, nothing would suprise me.

It's possible. FF have been quieter on this than I would have expected - especially in the last 12 hours.

We already know the problems within AGS go back decades. We all know the love of the Irish "cute hoor" and "it'll be grand" attitudes. We've seen how many scandals from all sides at this stage? I'm sure there's volumes of stuff buried in Government archives that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny.

That's the real issue.. so much of our whole "system" is broken, and until that's finally addressed (starting with an electorate who takes an interest and demands better), you can be sure that there's more still to come.

FrancieBrady

seamus wrote: »

He dived in too early with his support for her. He can't really turn on her without a good reason, or the rest of the cabinet/party will worry that Leo is a flaker who won't back them up when the going gets tough.

But the reports have it that senior ministers and the party changed their minds when the DOJ released the extra emails and still he stuck to the defence strategy.

trellheim

He can't really turn on her without a good reason, or the rest of the cabinet/party will worry that Leo is a flaker who won't back them up when the going gets tough.

I think even the most seasoned FG +1ers can see a scalp is called for here and this is just business .

Be interesting to see Cabinet colleagues like Ross etc coming out of cabinet later on today

FrancieBrady

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It's possible. FF have been quieter on this than I would have expected - especially in the last 12 hours.

We already know the problems within AGS go back decades. We all know the love of the Irish "cute hoor" and "it'll be grand" attitudes. We've seen how many scandals from all sides at this stage? I'm sure there's volumes of stuff buried in Government archives that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny.

That's the real issue.. so much of our whole "system" is broken, and until that's finally addressed (starting with an electorate who takes an interest and demands better), you can be sure that there's more still to come.

This, strangely muted and reserved.
Is Leo holding something over Michael?

Leo the Naive is not washing with Francie this morning.

Jawgap

trellheim wrote: »

Leo was himself cast out for a while by Enda. This is the only motivation I can see - that he'd vowed never to do the same perhaps

A principled politician? in Ireland?

I think this time of year is more usually associated with a different, unbelievable mythical character!

It could also be that Leo knows what he got up to when he was sidelined and he doesn't want to do it to Fitzgerald in case she goes and starts instigating plots, but I would've thought she's so badly damaged at this point that no one will want to associate with her too closely, apart from the usual malcontents.

_Kaiser_

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This, strangely muted and reserved.
Is Leo holding something over Michael?

Leo the Naive is not washing with Francie this morning.

Leo might be shallow and short on delivery, but he's involved with politics and FG since he was a teenager. Naivety isn't one of his failings to be fair.

Muahahaha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Enter Stage Right: The Independence Alliance - pursuing the high moral ground.

They have requested a meeting before the cabinet meeting.

That or a cath lab and a couple of swimming pools

trellheim wrote: »

I'm interested in the other view . Ignore the substantive issue of McCabe for a moment. If Enda was still Taoiseach a car would have arrived at her house one night last week for a quiet chat and the next morning everyone would have moved on.

Enda knew political expediency and was ruthless when it was needed. Leo clearly does not and is walking us into an election and possibly himself going down in history as the shortest ever serving Taoiseach.

trellheim

Expediency .... that was the word I could not remember cos it hasnt' turned up for the last week

Nettle Soup

Nettle Soup wrote: »

If anyone listened to the Buttimer (FG) interview on Radio 1 this morning, it would be 100% blame on FG. He could not answer simple questions about the missing tribunal information. He just read from a script.

He wasn’t allowed answer. He was bullied and heckled throughout. This saga is about bullying. Leo is right not to give in to them. If FF are so concerned, why are they waiting? Why not pull the plug now?

tigger123

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He wasn’t allowed answer. He was bullied and heckled throughout. This saga is about bullying. Leo is right not to give in to them. If FF are so concerned, why are they waiting? Why not pull the plug now?

Turkeys won't vote for Christmas, especially at his time of year.

There's a chance some FF won't regain their seats if there's an election before Xmas.

_Kaiser_

Deleted User wrote: »

He wasn’t allowed answer. He was bullied and heckled throughout. This saga is about bullying. Leo is right not to give in to them. If FF are so concerned, why are they waiting? Why not pull the plug now?

Optics MA, optics.

If indeed this gets as far as a no confidence motion this afternoon then the game will be up and it's GE time.

Leo is many things but naive isn't one of them - he's risking his role as Taoiseach and the Government for.... what, really? A Minister apparently up to her neck in scandal and who'll likely retire soon enough anyway? Unlikely.

That's the biggest question here. What is REALLY going on?

McMurphy

VinLieger wrote: »

And here is the real issue with irish politics it always comes back to this garbage

Actually, I'm the epitome of a floating voter, and rarely if every decide who my vote is going to until the last few days of an election.

I think the jist of my sentiments, and the context in which I was replying to flew over your head.

To me, this:

FF are using the current controversy to give a FG a kicking. As are SF. They couldn't give a toss about McCabe

reads nothing more than a "why don't nasty FF and the shinners just leave FG alone".

Even in the politics forum we have the same FG sound bites, some shouting about SF, others rambling on about Bertie, one even trying to say that the officials in the DOJ are all from FF stock and they're to blame.. (seriously, I'm not joking)

So with that, you can take your garbage accusations, and put them in your pipe abs smoke it.

trellheim

That's the biggest question here. What is REALLY going on?

Indeed. The spectacle of a lame-duck govt going into the Brexit summit ( although FG would be there, both the Civil service and the other EU26 , and UK will not treat them as highly as they would otherwise ) is appalling.

_Kaiser_

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Actually, I'm the epitome of a floating voter, and rarely if every decide who my vote is going to until the last few days of an election.

I think the jist of my sentiments, and the context in which I was replying to flew over your head.

To me, this:
reads nothing more than a "why don't nasty FF and the shinners just leave FG alone".

Even in the politics forum we have the same FG sound bites, some shouting about SF, others rambling on about Bertie, one even trying to say that the officials in the DOJ are all from FF stock (seriously, I'm not joking)

So with that, you can take your garbage accusations, and put them in your pipe abs smoke it.

To be fair to VL, I read his comment as agreeing with you - civil war politics are indeed still alive and well today

I don't bother with the Politics forum anymore since they castrated the Café, but that doesn't surprise me either

McMurphy

Jawgap wrote: »

Leo will survive this - even when Fitzgerald goes, and even if there is a GE and FG find themselves in opposition. In fact, it'll probably be the making of him. I think he's learning the darker arts of politics from this unholy mess (that is largely of his own creation at this point) - you can have all the Strategic Communications Units you want but nothing beats having a loyal, battle-proven consigliere working on your behalf behind the scenes.

MM will also survive this because as messy as it has turned out they're going to get Fitzgerald's scalp. He only has one election left though - after that, unless he leads FF into government, he's gone. And I reckon even if he does lead them into government he's still going to be dumped as FF won't see him as the person to consolidate whatever gains they get.

Jawgap, with respect, and in hindsight, I don't put much faith in your predictions anymore.

suicide_circus

Why won't Leo sack Frances? Is it;

a) weakness of leadership

b) misguided loyalty

c) there are further more damaging facts yet to emerge that he is trying to keep a lid on

_Kaiser_

suicide_circus wrote: »

Why won't Leo sack Frances? Is it;

a) weakness of leadership

b) misguided loyalty

c) there are further more damaging facts yet to emerge that he is trying to keep a lid on

I'd say A and C to be honest. You can be sure that Leo isn't just flying solo on this one. It has all been risk-assessed and for whatever reason, potentially forcing a GE as a result seems to have been decided as the "best" option.

That to me suggests there's a lot more we don't know, and possibly involving some more senior people.

trellheim

I'd say A and C to be honest. You can be sure that Leo isn't just flying solo on this one. It has all been risk-assessed and for whatever reason, potentially forcing a GE as a result seems to have been decided as the "best" option.

That to me suggests there's a lot more we don't know, and possibly involving some more senior people.

I would not be so sure - Shatter got the boot for far less.

McMurphy

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh that's what you said was it. Sorry. Thought you had stated that she was ending his career in politics when he had thirty years left in front of him.

Oh wait that's actually what you said.

Nonsense like that makes these threads pointless.

I explained it quite clearly, you just didn't read it.

If the Dail gets dissolved, I expect Leo to become a bit of a pariah within his own party's minister and TDs.

BillyBobBS

suicide_circus wrote: »

Why won't Leo sack Frances? Is it;

a) weakness of leadership

b) misguided loyalty

c) there are further more damaging facts yet to emerge that he is trying to keep a lid on

At this stage she must have something on Varadkar or another high ranking FG member and is threatening to bring the whole lot down with her. This is what happens when you move in these circles, these people have no morals to speak of.

tigger123

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Actually, I'm the epitome of a floating voter, and rarely if every decide who my vote is going to until the last few days of an election.

I think the jist of my sentiments, and the context in which I was replying to flew over your head.

To me, this:
reads nothing more than a "why don't nasty FF and the shinners just leave FG alone".

Even in the politics forum we have the same FG sound bites, some shouting about SF, others rambling on about Bertie, one even trying to say that the officials in the DOJ are all from FF stock and they're to blame.. (seriously, I'm not joking)

So with that, you can take your garbage accusations, and put them in your pipe abs smoke it.

If you're going to quote my post, you could have the decency to at least include my username so I can respond.

As I said before, I'm not an FG supporter. And I would never define my politics and what happened 100 years ago. It's idiotic.

_Kaiser_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Optics MA, optics.

If indeed this gets as far as a no confidence motion this afternoon then the game will be up and it's GE time.

Leo is many things but naive isn't one of them - he's risking his role as Taoiseach and the Government for.... what, really? A Minister apparently up to her neck in scandal and who'll likely retire soon enough anyway? Unlikely.

That's the biggest question here. What is REALLY going on?

Tend to agree with this tbh, practicality suggests something to be afraid of far in excess of what's actually been shown here so far

FrancieBrady

suicide_circus wrote: »

Why won't Leo sack Frances? Is it;

a) weakness of leadership

b) misguided loyalty

c) there are further more damaging facts yet to emerge that he is trying to keep a lid on

All three for me.

tobsey

touts wrote: »

Covney has tied himself firmly to Fitzgerald after that interview. If Leo sacks her now he gets to show "strong leadership" and he'll take down his main political rival at the same time. Could be too tempting to resist.

How on earth is Coveney Varadkar's main political rival? That ship has sailed. Varadkar will need a strong Coveney in any future election. Martin & McDonald are now his main rivals.

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It's possible. FF have been quieter on this than I would have expected - especially in the last 12 hours.

We already know the problems within AGS go back decades. We all know the love of the Irish "cute hoor" and "it'll be grand" attitudes. We've seen how many scandals from all sides at this stage? I'm sure there's volumes of stuff buried in Government archives that wouldn't stand up to scrutiny.

That's the real issue.. so much of our whole "system" is broken, and until that's finally addressed (starting with an electorate who takes an interest and demands better), you can be sure that there's more still to come.

Seriously? In the previous 12 hours they had two of their front benchers on the two biggest current affairs programs on Irish TV!

BillyBobBS wrote: »

At this stage she must have something on Varadkar or another high ranking FG member and is threatening to bring the whole lot down with her. This is what happens when you move in these circles, these people have no morals to speak of.

You have no evidence of this. There is also no reasonable basis for it. What would Fitzgerald have to gain by bringing down her soon to be former colleagues? I firmly believe that the retiring Sec Gen decided to pour a load of petrol and toss a match on the way out, but he had no skin in the game. Fitzgerald has put too much into her party to bring it down out of spite.

FrancieBrady

tobsey wrote: »

How on earth is Coveney Varadkar's main political rival? That ship has sailed. Varadkar will need a strong Coveney in any future election. Martin & McDonald are now his main rivals.

Seriously? In the previous 12 hours they had two of their front benchers on the two biggest current affairs programs on Irish TV!

You have no evidence of this. There is also no reasonable basis for it. What would Fitzgerald have to gain by bringing down her soon to be former colleagues? I firmly believe that the retiring Sec Gen decided to pour a load of petrol and toss a match on the way out, but he had no skin in the game. Fitzgerald has put too much into her party to bring it down out of spite.

She may not ultimately bring them down but she may be threatening to do it. Hence Varadkar's curious curious mishandling or bungling. Call it what you will.

F34

I honestly think if it was a male minsiter in this position they would be be gone Leo is afraid to fire due to the optics of it.

tobsey

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She may not ultimately bring them down but she may be threatening to do it. Hence Varadkar's curious curious mishandling or bungling. Call it what you will.

Not a chance. He has backed her to the hilt at this stage. If she tried to attack back he could use the infamous strategy that started all this. I can see Varadkar's response:

"The former Tanaiste's motives have to be questioned. She clearly misled the Dail and as such was deemed unfit to remain in office. Blah blah blah..."

Of course maybe that strategy won't even be used in the end.

Working class heroes

F34 wrote: »

I honestly think if it was a male minsiter in this position they would be be gone Leo is afraid to fire due to the optics of it.

:rolleyes:

Dyr

Working class heroes wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Leo did try the "hounding a female minister out of her job" representation angle out last week so you can :rolleyes: at him while yer at it.

pumpkin4life

suicide_circus wrote: »

Why won't Leo sack Frances? Is it;

a) weakness of leadership

b) misguided loyalty

c) there are further more damaging facts yet to emerge that he is trying to keep a lid on

a) Possible. Varadker had a reputation of being very arrogant during his time in the Department of Social Protection. He also had a reputation of being bad with people on a one on one basis. My reading of Varadker is that he sees himself as the Hip Cool Centrist; the Guardian reading, marathon running, Wire watching kind of politician with all the modern opinions because it is 2017 and being the gatekeepers of knowledge; of the right way to live, and through being narcissistic and arrogant, believes other people think the exact way.

Here's a good example of this. He announced that he was backing Fitzgerald at a fùcking feminist conference. Why? To wash Francis as being a progressive woman who has done so much for the Hip Cool Centrist cause.

Lulz. Try telling that to North County Dublin lad whose area has been decimated by globalization. These lads want the fùck you vote.

You attack Varadker as a politician by attacking his image. Fitzgerald is part of that image.

b) Unlikely. See above. Varadker was perfectly happy to get rid of that Young Fine Gael lad for far far less, because the Hip Cool Centrist image comes into question.

c) Possible. I said this earlier in the thread.

A combination of A and C. Get the popcorn lads. Lovely Leo is about to bury his party for the good of his ego.

VinLieger

In my opinion she doesn't need to resign and this is preempting the tribunal BUT SF have FG and FF over a barrel and she probably should just suck it up and go for the good of her party and the country because this is not helping anyone and an election right now will be a waste of time and money for everyone involved.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

In my opinion she doesn't need to resign and this is preempting the tribunal BUT SF have FG and FF over a barrel and she probably should just suck it up and go for the good of her party and the country because this is not helping anyone and an election right now will be a waste of time and money for everyone involved.

The tribunal will have nothing to say about her lying in the Dail and misleading others.
That is a political matter and needs to be settled politically, in the Dail. Hence the current crisis.
It is not unjustified.

Dyr

VinLieger wrote: »

In my opinion she doesn't need to resign and this is preempting the tribunal BUT SF have FG and FF over a barrel and she probably should just suck it up and go for the good of her party and the country because this is not helping anyone and an election right now will be a waste of time and money for everyone involved.

f**k that, tribunals are being used as the handy alternative to political accountability. In most other western democracies Francis would have had her card pulled last week

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

f**k that, tribunals are being used as the handy alternative to political accountability. In most other western democracies Francis would have had her card pulled last week

The tribunal will not report for over a year too. By that time Frances will have shuffled off with her pension and there will be zero accountability.

McMurphy

Unconfirmed reports coming from the cabinet that the Tainaste is to resign.

VinLieger

Bambi wrote: »

f**k that, tribunals are being used as the handy alternative to political accountability. In most other western democracies Francis would have had her card pulled last week

Burn the witch ehh?

The_Valeyard

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Unconfirmed reports coming from the cabinet that the Tainaste is to resign.

Hopefully this is true.

Common f*cking sense. Resign, go to back benches, give it some time, get promoted again. Keep govt focused on Brexit.

McMurphy

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Hopefully this is true.

Common f*cking sense. Resign, go to back benches, give it some time, get promoted again. Keep govt focused on Brexit.

Id say she could be finished politically.

Hard to see how Leo won't be tarnished unrepairably now too.

Extremely questionable leadership abilities.

touts

The fact that Leo didn't meet with either the Independent Alliance or the FG ministers seperately this morning and instead called them all in together to an early cabinet meeting means he has finally made a decision that he couldn't trust not to be leaked before he had a chance to talk to everyone. If he was going to sack her and told the FG ministers first they would surely be able to keep that to themselves until he told the IA. Plus he isn't going to sack her in front of the whole cabinet. So I'd say that look like he plans to go to the park before lunch.

FrancieBrady

touts wrote: »

The fact that Leo didn't meet with either the Independent Alliance or the FG ministers seperately this morning and instead called them all in together to an early cabinet meeting means he has finally made a decision that he couldn't trust not to be leaked before he had a chance to talk to everyone. If he was going to sack her and told the FG ministers first they would surely be able to keep that to themselves until he told the IA. Plus he isn't going to sack her in front of the whole cabinet. So I'd say that look like he plans to go to the park before lunch.

If she goes by sacking or resignation, he will not be going near the park.

Hector Bellend

He has shown a distinct lack of judgement in this whole situation.