The Frances Fitzgerald controversy. Are we heading for an election?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

And even if the public blame Leo for the election, that won't matter three weeks later when they decide to vote for who will lead the country forward.

That is especially true when they reflect fully on how we are having an election because FF and SF got excited about an email.

I'd save the campaign rhetoric until there is a campaign tbh.

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

Again you could be right but if I was a betting man i'd go against you. Having said that and i'm not a political animal at all, it's my view that the people will vote for stability.

You may be correct, but wasn`t that one of the major selling points from FG during the last GE campaign, vote for stability ?

It wasn`t exactly what could be termed a raging success then.

charlie14

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Rather, its a master stroke to turn defense into attack. They will claim a very high ground now in an election and can sling a lot of mud at FF, SF, and independents, that will resonate positively in their favour with the electorate.

You didn`t have a relation who was a general on the French or British side during the Battle of the Somme by any chance ?

BENDYBINN

The public are not fools,Fitzgerald refusing to speak and Leo
backing her is treating the voters as idiots.Then again maybe he's right

FrancieBrady

BENDYBINN wrote: »

The public are not fools,Fitzgerald refusing to speak and Leo
backing her is treating the voters as idiots.Then again maybe he's right

I think if they go into a campaign with her still in office they might get a kicking.

The Rape of Lucretia

Tony EH wrote: »

Leo should do what's best for leading "the country forward" and drop Fitzgerald, whose, at best, shown she's not up to her current position. The more this trundles on, the worse public opinion on FG becomes. Of course FG failthfuls, like yourself, will continue to only see blue and pretend that there's nothing untoward happening.

You are falling into his trap like FF. Of course he would drop her like a hot potato if it suited his purpose of maintaining the minority govt. But he isnt. He can make the opposition look silly, petty, as deal breakers, as more interested in old style party bickering than the good of the country. He can have all that, as well as presenting himself as the personification of reason, trust in his staff (everyone knows the substantive issue prompting these events is below trivial), upholder of agreements for government, and a chance to himself lead FG in an election.
Its very impressive stuff once you realise what he is doing.

Nettle Soup

Tony EH wrote: »

After Kelly's shilling for Fg on behalf of Irish Water, it's dificult to give him credit for anything to be honest.

I thought Alan Kelly was a tool during the Irish Water saga but he is proving himself a decent politician on the McCabe issue. He wants justice for McCabe - Fine Gael have said they want justice too but all their actions say otherwise. Leo is getting tarnished by something many FG TDs had the opportunity to fix.
Tomorrow should be interesting.

Tony EH

BENDYBINN wrote: »

The public are not fools,Fitzgerald refusing to speak and Leo
backing her is treating the voters as idiots.Then again maybe he's right

Varadker may be "backing her" in public, but I'd say behind closed doors, the story is quite different and I think he's furious at her handling of this debacle.

Despite the disingenuous tripe spouted on here by the usual FG online campaigners, this is s very serious issue for the party (not to mention the country and McCabe himself - whose the only real victim here). With the nuclear option on the table, I'd say Varadker is very much looking at the option of chucking Fitzgerald - he's only just got the top job. But, he has to make it look like it's by her own volition to salve the party saps and allow them a feel good story to propagate online.

charlie14

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

As I say I think the average FG grassroots is fairly realistic and would see finishing a close second to FF as a decent performance by historical standards. Their medium-term plan is to polarise politics between themselves and SF, in the process marginalizing FF, but they know it will take a few election cycles to realise that..

After the drop of seats from the 2011 GE level to the level of GE 2016 to go less than 2 years later to less seats than FF I think the average FG grassroots would be out looking for blood.

With already many of the old guard in SF gone or going soon, playing the long game of a few election cycles could be a very dangerous game for FG.

Tony EH

Nettle Soup wrote: »

I thought Alan Kelly was a tool during the Irish Water saga but he is proving himself a decent politician on the McCabe issue. He wants justice for McCabe - Fine Gael have said they want justice too but all their actions say otherwise. Leo is getting tarnished by something many FG TDs had the opportunity to fix.
Tomorrow should be interesting.

Kelly's salesman act on behalf of Irish Water and more importantly, Fine Gael, was utterly shameful. It's going to take much, much more than this episode for me to change my opinion of him as a politician, "decent" or otherwise.

Labour sold their soul for a place at the table and got the result they deserved at the last GE - it's remarkable Kelly kept his seat.

Edward M

I wonder will all these forgetful politicians resign.
Such a furore from our new guardians, but they were as guilty perhaps?
I think Fitzgerald should go, but the hypocritical politicians proposing it are no better really.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-the-other-ministers-who-struggled-with-their-emails-36353471.html

FrancieBrady

Tony EH wrote: »

Varadker may be "backing her" in public, but I'd say behind closed doors, the story is quite different and I think he's furious at her handling of this debacle.

Despite the disingenuous tripe spouted on here by the usual FG online campaigners, this is s very serious issue for the party (not to mention the country and McCabe himself - whose the only real victim here). With the nuclear option on the table, I'd say Varadker is very much looking at the option of chucking Fitzgerald - he's only just got the top job. But, he has to make it look like it's by her own volition to salve the party saps and allow them a feel good story to propagate online.

Massive anger with her on the backbenches was reported early on in this, but that has morphed into claims of support for her.

Tony EH

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Massive anger with her on the backbenches was reported early on in this, but that has morphed into claims of support for her.

Stage management.

Soulsun

Can someone please tell me what they forsee will happen

The Rape of Lucretia

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Massive anger with her on the backbenches was reported early on in this, but that has morphed into claims of support for her.

Anyone fully understanding the detail of the issue accepts that she acted fully correctly, but that the situation is being cynically exploited despite that. This is the element that Leo is trying to exploit to FG's advantage.

Beechwoodspark

Soulsun wrote: »

Can someone please tell me what they forsee will happen

It comes down to whether FF back away from the cliff or decide they simply have to pull down the govt over this.

Factor in Martin's worries about how he is perceived.

An escape route for Leo is for F Fitz to resign. She may well be ordered to if even further revelations come out. Leo of course will attempt to spin it as positively as he can

FrancieBrady

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Anyone fully understanding the detail of the issue accepts that she acted fully correctly, but that the situation is being cynically exploited despite that. This is the element that Leo is trying to exploit to FG's advantage.

Oh I think most of the public can see that Leo is exploiting this. They are not fools and will tolerate it to a point.
But if they get a whiff of arrogance, FG will take a hit.
The Irish electorate don't like arrogance as a rule.

FrancieBrady

Soulsun wrote: »

Can someone please tell me what they forsee will happen

Fitzgerald will be given a chance to make a statement lush with victimhood in the Dail and resign.

FG and FF go off over Xmas and lick their wounds and 'put the country first'. Back in the new term and start again until the next crisis. Which will be the last one for this crazy set up of a government.

markodaly

Odhinn wrote: »

It's a sad day when "act appropriately now" is put down as "nothing to offer". It's like suggesting the gardai need ethics training so as not to falsify checkpoints and breath testing.

Anyone who has followed the exchange between us will follow that all you have to offer are just simple soundbyte type solutions, which work great online as peoples attention spans are short but in reality, it does not cut the mustard.

Again, I repeat the Government have set up the Commission into the Future of Policing, who are due to report in September 2018. This is very much like the Patton report, which was supported by Sinn Fein among others, yet this is not good enough now. Reform has to happen at midnight apparently.

They have also setup the Disclosures Tribunal and passed over a dozen pieces of legislation.

I know facts are an inconvenient truth for some.

Loafing Oaf

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It comes down to whether FF back away from the cliff or decide they simply have to pull down the govt over this.

Factor in Martin's worries about how he is perceived.

An escape route for Leo is for F Fitz to resign. She may well be ordered to if even further revelations come out. Leo of course will attempt to spin it as positively as he can

Gone too far for either Leo or Micheal to pull back at this stage. Only thing that can stop the wheels now is FF deciding on her own bat to resign. But I find it hard to see her taking that step when she hasn't done so already...

Odhinn

markodaly wrote: »

Anyone who has followed the exchange between us will follow that all you have to offer are just simple soundbyte type solutions, which work great online as peoples attention spans are short but in reality, it does not cut the mustard.

A minister asking what happened to a strategy to undermine a garda after an inquiry finished is the logical course of events. Anything else is behaviour below the standard that should be expected.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Massive anger with her on the backbenches was reported early on in this, but that has morphed into claims of support for her.

Do you have a link to these reports of "massive" anger?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Do you have a link to these reports of "massive" anger?

No.
It was said during reportage from the Dail by correspondents. You can chose not to believe me. I'm fine with that.

markodaly

Odhinn wrote: »

A minister asking what happened to a strategy to undermine a garda after an inquiry finished is the logical course of events. Anything else is behaviour below the standard that should be expected.

Not surprisingly you change tack and avoid the substance of the posts that went before. Do you have anything of substance to add?

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

Anyone who has followed the exchange between us will follow that all you have to offer are just simple soundbyte type solutions, which work great online as peoples attention spans are short but in reality, it does not cut the mustard.

Again, I repeat the Government have set up the Commission into the Future of Policing, who are due to report in September 2018. This is very much like the Patton report, which was supported by Sinn Fein among others, yet this is not good enough now. Reform has to happen at midnight apparently.

They have also setup the Disclosures Tribunal and passed over a dozen pieces of legislation.

I know facts are an inconvenient truth for some.

The fact that your slavish support for this disclosures tribunal is at great pains to ignore the inconvenient truth that it had not the vaguest idea this email existed, and that only for the repeated tabling of Dail questions would have proceeded on it`s merry way never knowing of it`s existence until it got to the stage where it seemed Alan Kelly already knew what it contained resulting in it being "found" doesn`t seem to register with you.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No.
It was said during reportage from the Dail by correspondents. You can chose not to believe me. I'm fine with that.

You were quite clear and definitive on this issue:

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Massive anger with her on the backbenches was reported early on in this, but that has morphed into claims of support for her.

It seems that you have nothing to back it up.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You were quite clear and definitive on this issue:



It seems that you have nothing to back it up.

My memory backs me up.
As I said, you can chose not to believe me or not. I don't really care if you do or don't.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

The fact that your slavish support for this disclosures tribunal is at great pains to ignore the inconvenient truth that it had not the vaguest idea this email existed, and that only for the repeated tabling of Dail questions would have proceeded on it`s merry way never knowing of it`s existence until it got to the stage where it seemed Alan Kelly already knew what it contained resulting in it being "found" doesn`t seem to register with you.

We don't actually know that the Tribunal knows and doesn't know, because it hasn't reported yet.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Quite a statement from the speculator and predictor in chief on boards.ie

Except that I am quite clear when I am referring to facts (I provide multiple links with which to back them up) and when I am expressing opinion or belief.

Others make definitive statements like - Frances sat on her hands - which are speculation, not facts.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

We don't actually know that the Tribunal knows and doesn't know, because it hasn't reported yet.

Will you get up the yard

This tribunal had not the vaguest idea this email existed until it surfaced when it became apparent from old AK47s questions he already knew what it contained.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Will you get up the yard

This tribunal had not the vaguest idea this email existed until it surfaced when it became apparent from old AK47s questions he already knew what it contained.

I am going to have to spell this out for you, I think.

How did Alan Kelly know about it? The only logical answer is because the gardai had told the Tribunal about the contact with the DoJ. Kelly got that, either from the Gardai or from the Tribunal. Either way, we won't know until the Tribunal reports.

hmmm

I've no time at all for Fitzgerald, our policing and justice systems are a disgrace, and ordinarily this would be a good opportunity for someone like FF to try and go for an election. However, at a key time in the Brexit negotiations I don't get the impression that the country will reward a party which collapses the government at this time.

If she had any respect for the country (and her party) she should resign in my opinion, but if she won't now is not the time for an election - Martin I think would get a lot of respect if he said something along the lines of "we have no confidence in the Minister, but for the good of the country we will not vote no-confidence".

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Except that I am quite clear when I am referring to facts (I provide multiple links with which to back them up) and when I am expressing opinion or belief.

Others make definitive statements like - Frances sat on her hands - which are speculation, not facts.

You have provided multiple links here to back up your predictions and rambling suppositions ?
I must need a new laptop. This one for whatever reason is blocking them.

Fitzgerald may not have sat on her hands when she read that email.
She may just have twiddled her thumbs. Who knows.

What we do know is that she did sweet f a about it.

BENDYBINN

hmmm wrote: »

I've no time at all for Fitzgerald, our policing and justice systems are a disgrace, and ordinarily this would be a good opportunity for someone like FF to try and go for an election. However, at a key time in the Brexit negotiations I don't get the impression that the country will reward a party which collapses the government at this time.

If she had any respect for the country (and her party) she should resign in my opinion, but if she won't now is not the time for an election - Martin I think would get a lot of respect if he said something along the lines of "we have no confidence in the Minister, but for the good of the country we will not vote no-confidence".

If Leo had any balls he'd sack her.

Ash.J.Williams

The only vote I want is to execute the entire dail

Tá

Níl

charlie14

hmmm wrote: »

I've no time at all for Fitzgerald, our policing and justice systems are a disgrace, and ordinarily this would be a good opportunity for someone like FF to try and go for an election. However, at a key time in the Brexit negotiations I don't get the impression that the country will reward a party which collapses the government at this time.

If she had any respect for the country (and her party) she should resign in my opinion, but if she won't now is not the time for an election - Martin I think would get a lot of respect if he said something along the lines of "we have no confidence in the Minister, but for the good of the country we will not vote no-confidence".

So why, if as you state your opinion is she should resign, that if she refuses she should not be sacked. ?

McMurphy

hmmm wrote: »

I've no time at all for Fitzgerald, our policing and justice systems are a disgrace, and ordinarily this would be a good opportunity for someone like FF to try and go for an election. However, at a key time in the Brexit negotiations I don't get the impression that the country will reward a party which collapses the government at this time.

If she had any respect for the country (and her party) she should resign in my opinion, but if she won't now is not the time for an election - Martin I think would get a lot of respect if he said something along the lines of "we have no confidence in the Minister, but for the good of the country we will not vote no-confidence".

Martin would be doing the country a disservice if he pulled back at this stage.

Knowingly or not. Frances Fitzgerald presided over the DOJ while officials in that dept liased with the commissioner fully aware of the smear campaign against the whistleblower, while simultaneously supporting him in the public eye.

Either Frances was aware of the smear campaign and turned a blind eye and so needs to go.

Or;

Frances was completely oblivious to what the upper echelons in her department where up to, and misread the importance of the email, and failed to follow up on its importance, ie - incompetent and she needs to go.

In both scenarios , the ending should have the same outcome.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

I am going to have to spell this out for you, I think.

How did Alan Kelly know about it? The only logical answer is because the gardai had told the Tribunal about the contact with the DoJ. Kelly got that, either from the Gardai or from the Tribunal. Either way, we won't know until the Tribunal reports.

Stop confusing yourself running around in circles there trying to sell this tribunal when the obvious and simplest explanation is that got it from a source within the DOJ.

Nettle Soup

blanch152 wrote: »

We don't actually know that the Tribunal knows and doesn't know, because it hasn't reported yet.

We definitely know the email wasn't sent to the ironically named Disclosures Tribunal. You should know too because it has been repeated in the news daily since Tuesday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1126/922943-email-tanaiste/

The failure to include this key email in the documents sent to the Disclosures Tribunal is a serious matter.

Alan Kelly is not getting his information from the tribunal

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Stop confusing yourself running around in circles there trying to sell this tribunal when the obvious and simplest explanation is that got it from a source within the DOJ.

That makes no sense at all.

If that was the case, DoJ would have had the email straight away when Alan asked his question. If they didn't, that would mean a civil servant was telling Alan Kelly about an email while simultaneously hiding it from the Minister. If you are right, that isn't a resigning reason for the Minister, it is an issue for the civil service.

I am getting the feeling that as wiser heads in FF prevail over the last couple of days, those on here that were jumping around in glee with the prospect of securing the head of Fitzgerald, are getting a little bitter that it no longer looks likely to happen.

Nettle Soup

blanch152 wrote: »

That makes no sense at all.

If that was the case, DoJ would have had the email straight away when Alan asked his question. If they didn't, that would mean a civil servant was telling Alan Kelly about an email while simultaneously hiding it from the Minister. If you are right, that isn't a resigning reason for the Minister, it is an issue for the civil service.

I am getting the feeling that as wiser heads in FF prevail over the last couple of days, those on here that were jumping around in glee with the prospect of securing the head of Fitzgerald, are getting a little bitter that it no longer looks likely to happen.

Don't be so naïve - Kelly had the email before he asked the questions! Watch his interviews. I actually think he is playing a brilliant game of political poker (with Howlin's consent) and he has more cards to play. They owe FG for the Irish Water bullet
The DoJ fobbed Kelly off for weeks but he knew and they knew (while their minister were lying in the Dail).

The question is can Fine Gael afford to go to the polls in December knowing that there will be daily leaks until polling day about the McCabe smear campaign by FG/Gardaí/DoJ/Tusla.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

That makes no sense at all.

If that was the case, DoJ would have had the email straight away when Alan asked his question. If they didn't, that would mean a civil servant was telling Alan Kelly about an email while simultaneously hiding it from the Minister. If you are right, that isn't a resigning reason for the Minister, it is an issue for the civil service.

I am getting the feeling that as wiser heads in FF prevail over the last couple of days, those on here that were jumping around in glee with the prospect of securing the head of Fitzgerald, are getting a little bitter that it no longer looks likely to happen.

C'mon blanch, it's as obvious as the nose on the end of your face that this was Kelly's ace up his sleeve.

He obviously had knowledge of the seemingly innocuous email for quite some time, and allowed certain figures to trip over themselves about it.

How else do you explain Flannagans outburst about something that never happened

Mr Flanagan then called a point of order and intervened to say: “I will not have my good name and professional reputation traduced by Deputy Kelly both inside this House and outside this House”.

The Ceann Comhairle said “Deputy Kelly has not said anything in my hearing”.

Nettle Soup

Rick Shaw wrote: »

C'mon blanch, it's as obvious as the nose on the end of your face that this was Kelly's ace up his sleeve.

He obviously had knowledge of the seemingly innocuous email for quite some time, and allowed certain figures to trip over themselves about it.

How else do you explain Flannagans outburst about something that never happened

I know! It has been obvious for weeks really. Look at all the loaded questions he put forward.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/alan-kelly-in-fresh-maurice-mccabe-complaint-462973.html

Alan Kelly in fresh Maurice McCabe complaint.

Dáil chairman, Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghail, is “considering” a fresh complaint from Labour TD Alan Kelly over information he sought over the treatment of Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe.

Mr Kelly has been highly critical of the quality of responses from Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan over whether his department knew anything about the legal strategy to “attack the credibility” of Sgt McCabe when he was being cross-examined by lawyers for ex-commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan in May 2015.

He would also have known that they didn't tell Charleton about the communications over the false accusation strategy.

hmmm

Nettle Soup wrote: »

The question is can Fine Gael afford to go to the polls in December knowing that there will be daily leaks until polling day about the McCabe smear campaign by FG/Gardaí/DoJ/Tusla.

Yes they can afford it, because no-one other than a few political hacks really cares. All we are going to hear for the next 12 months is Brexit Brexit Brexit. God help the party (FG or FF) which causes a general election.

tayto lover

Edward M wrote: »

I wonder will all these forgetful politicians resign.
Such a furore from our new guardians, but they were as guilty perhaps?
I think Fitzgerald should go, but the hypocritical politicians proposing it are no better really.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-the-other-ministers-who-struggled-with-their-emails-36353471.html

As I said often enough here they all have skeletons. Couldn't trust one of them.
And anything they do is not for the good of the country, it's for their own good.
People who join and follow political parties are mad.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

That makes no sense at all.

If that was the case, DoJ would have had the email straight away when Alan asked his question. If they didn't, that would mean a civil servant was telling Alan Kelly about an email while simultaneously hiding it from the Minister. If you are right, that isn't a resigning reason for the Minister, it is an issue for the civil service.

I am getting the feeling that as wiser heads in FF prevail over the last couple of days, those on here that were jumping around in glee with the prospect of securing the head of Fitzgerald, are getting a little bitter that it no longer looks likely to happen.

As I said, stop confusing yourself running around in circles attempting to sell your tribunal as the font of all knowledge.

The email did not come from it and it had now idea it existed until "found" due to Dail questions and a pretty clear indication from Kelly`s questions as it dragged on that he knew what the email contained.
Producing this email that was not in the interest of Fitzgerald, her advisors, her private secretary, or the deputy head or head of her department.

You will excuse me if I pass on your latest political ramblings based on nothing other than your imagination or a feeling in your waters.

tayto lover

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It comes down to whether FF back away from the cliff or decide they simply have to pull down the govt over this.

Factor in Martin's worries about how he is perceived.

An escape route for Leo is for F Fitz to resign. She may well be ordered to if even further revelations come out. Leo of course will attempt to spin it as positively as he can

It's not just Frances Fitzgerald's career that's on the line though. Michael Martin could lose the leadership and be finished in politics if all this goes pear shaped for FF. If he was wise he'd back off and not let it come to an election. SF are going to change leadership soon anyway but they could either gain or lose but it's still a big enough gamble for them too.
I don't believe an election actually suits any party and certainly not the Independents or AAA. They could lose out big-time to the established parties.

The Rape of Lucretia

tayto lover wrote: »

People who join and follow political parties are mad.

Less mad than those who dont though who need the less mad to join and follow political parties to run the country for them.

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

It's not just Frances Fitzgerald's career that's on the line though. Michael Martin could lose the leadership and be finished in politics if all this goes pear shaped for FF. If he was wise he'd back off and not let it come to an election. SF are going to change leadership soon anyway but they could either gain or lose but it's still a big enough gamble for them too.
I don't believe an election actually suits any party and certainly not the Independents or AAA. They could lose out big-time to the established parties.

I would be off the opinion that Martin is the one with least to lose by not backing down even if it results in a GE.

Backing down would result in him being taken out as leader of FF.

sdanseo

An election before SF leadership change is probably in the interests of anyone not wanting to see SF win yet more seats - because sheep will flock to their populist, irresponsible ranting, unfortunately.

Without Adams' recent announcement and maybe with the FF leadership question in the background, this issue would have continued with the trend of this issue since its arising a few years ago and not threatened the government (and that's sad in itself, because the whole situation with An Garda Síochána has gone way beyond ridiculous). In any event, the dynamic has all changed now.