The Frances Fitzgerald controversy. Are we heading for an election?

tayto lover

charlie14 wrote: »

I would be off the opinion that Martin is the one with least to lose by not backing down even if it results in a GE.

Backing down would result in him being taken out as leader of FF.

Again "the good of the country" excuse could be used by him to backtrack and gain votes when a GE actually does get held. A bit like FG using the "for the good of the country" excuse for some of the austerity measures.
A bad performance in a hastily called GE which was of his calling would spell doom for him.

Hitman3000

sdanseo wrote:

An election before SF leadership change is probably in the interests of anyone not wanting to see SF win yet more seats (because sheep will flock to their populist, irresponsible ranting, unfortunately).

Mary Lou has confirmed she will be leading SF into a GE.
Populist= policies that appeal to the common man.

The Rape of Lucretia

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Populist= policies that appeal to the common man.

The problem with democracy is the common man having a vote and being vulnerable to populist policies. Responsible parties stay away from populism. Those with less integrity, exploit the common man with populist policies even when not in his interest.

sdanseo

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Populist= policies that appeal to the common man.

Indeed. And the common man is lured to the sound of money in his pocket, regardless of how absurdly flawed the policy behind it is.

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

Again "the good of the country" excuse could be used by him to backtrack and gain votes when a GE actually does get held. A bit like FG using the "for the good of the country" excuse for some of the austerity measures.
A bad performance in a hastily called GE which was of his calling would spell doom for him.

Tbh if he backs down I would not see him being around as leader of FF when the next general election comes around.

He has nothing to lose by not backing down imo.

JennyZ

sdanseo wrote: »

An election before SF leadership change is probably in the interests of anyone not wanting to see SF win yet more seats - because sheep will flock to their populist, irresponsible ranting, unfortunately.

That's highly dubious.

tayto lover

charlie14 wrote: »

Tbh if he backs down I would not see him being around as leader of FF when the next general election comes around.

He has nothing to lose by not backing down imo.

He's still walking a tightrope. He's brown bread if they fare out worse after an election anyway.

McMurphy

sdanseo wrote: »

Indeed. And the common man is lured to the sound of money in his pocket, regardless of how absurdly flawed the policy behind it is.

Which is why Leo's decision to give away more on dole payments than he did to those on the average wage so confusing.

I'm not dole bashing btw, I'd not swap places with anyone on the scratcher thanks very much.

But his "rewarding those who get up early" statements are bizarre in the context Now, that those on average industrial wages got less.

Highly doubtful Leo is chasing the unemployed vote so was a strange/absurd policy in that regard. Spot on.

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

He's still walking a tightrope. He's brown bread if they fare out worse after an election anyway.

Both himself and Varadkar are on a highwire exercise in that regard.

Out of government would hardly increase the grassroots support Varadkar received during the FG election campaign, and Coveney is only commenting on this mess when he is cornered for a quote.

FrancieBrady

sdanseo wrote: »

Indeed. And the common man is lured to the sound of money in his pocket, regardless of how absurdly flawed the policy behind it is.

So the point you are making here is that the 'uncommon man' votes for FG?

How arrogant is that inference?

markodaly

So it appears that behind the scenes Leo has put forward the idea that the Dept of Justice be split, into a Justice and Home Affairs department, thus effectively tearing up the place and neutering its power. A good move from Leo, use a crisis to push through a reform. MM has to be a brave man now to turn down the offer. A head on a plate does nothing, while splitting up the DOJ actually does something constructive.



Its like the grown ups are talking and taking charge, while the kids are outside screaming and shouting.

Hitman3000

markodaly wrote:

Its like the grown ups are talking and taking charge, while the kids are outside screaming and shouting.

The vote of no confidence is in Fitzgerald not the DoJ. Fitzgerald is still incompetent nothing Leo offers changes that.

charlie14

markodaly wrote: »

So it appears that behind the scenes Leo has put forward the idea that the Dept of Justice be split, into a Justice and Home Affairs department, thus effectively tearing up the place and neutering its power. A good move from Leo, use a crisis to push through a reform. MM has to be a brave man now to turn down the offer. A head on a plate does nothing, while splitting up the DOJ actually does something constructive.



Its like the grown ups are talking and taking charge, while the kids are outside screaming and shouting.

Tbh, it sounds like nothing much more than a rearrangement of deckchairs on the Titanic

tayto lover

charlie14 wrote: »

Both himself and Varadkar are on a highwire exercise in that regard.

Out of government would hardly increase the grassroots support Varadkar received during the FG election campaign, and Coveney is only commenting on this mess when he is cornered for a quote.

Indeed. Varadkar has an excuse though as he'll say he was pushed into an election and stuck nobly to his Minister while Martin pushed the button himself. Don't forget though that a good result could also make both of them.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

So it appears that behind the scenes Leo has put forward the idea that the Dept of Justice be split, into a Justice and Home Affairs department, thus effectively tearing up the place and neutering its power. A good move from Leo, use a crisis to push through a reform. MM has to be a brave man now to turn down the offer. A head on a plate does nothing, while splitting up the DOJ actually does something constructive.



Its like the grown ups are talking and taking charge, while the kids are outside screaming and shouting.

Smacks of papering over cracks.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Smacks of papering over cracks.

And your proposal to reform the DOJ is....?

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Smacks of papering over cracks.

This puts Martin in check. His move.
Clever from Varadkar.
Very interesting if true. Shows no party wants an election.

myshirt

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Smacks of papering over cracks.

I don't think so. It's a great offer if you ask me. The man is savvy.

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

Indeed. Varadkar has an excuse though as he'll say he was pushed into an election and stuck nobly to his Minister while Martin pushed the button himself. Don't forget though that a good result could also make both of them.

Agree that a good result would favour them both, but as to who will have the excuse the public go for in greater numbers will come down to who believe he was correct to stand by Fitzgerald or if he should have simply sacked her/got her to resign.

markodaly

I think Leo is more politically astute than people give him credit for. He knows that MM was marched in the No confidence motion by his back benchers. Now, if MM turn him down, he can use it as a stick to beat him with in the up coming GE. He can also point to meaningful attempts at reform.

What has every other party done, piss and moan like they always have.

BillyBobBS

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Which is why Leo's decision to give away more on dole payments than he did to those on the average wage so confusing.

I'm not dole bashing btw, I'd not swap places with anyone on the scratcher thanks very much.

But his "rewarding those who get up early" statements are bizarre in the context Now, that those on average industrial wages got less.

Highly doubtful Leo is chasing the unemployed vote so was a strange/absurd policy in that regard. Spot on.

Varadkar has a history of going back on his word both on local issues and national. "Not one red cent" is another well known roll back. I voted FG the election before last but they are every bit as inept and corrupt as FF in my eyes and they won't get a vote from me this time around. Under all that shiny PR and bluster Leo is just another con artist politician.

FrancieBrady

myshirt wrote: »

I don't think so. It's a great offer if you ask me. The man is savvy.

Why is it a great offer? It can be batted away as too little too late and a desperate attempt to cling to power.
But tell why it is 'great'

McMurphy

myshirt wrote: »

I don't think so. It's a great offer if you ask me. The man is savvy.

Not savvy enough. The vote of no confidence is in relation to Frances Fitzgerald and what went on under her watch.

I get the feeling we are being drip fed info here. Martin and FF would be weak in some eyes if (the whistleblower saga has lots of sympathisers) he settled for any thing less than the initial demand.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

I think Leo is more politically astute than people give him credit for. He knows that MM was marched in the No confidence motion by his back benchers. Now, if MM turn him down, he can use it as a stick to beat him with in the up coming GE. He can also point to meaningful attempts at reform.

What has every other party done, piss and moan like they always have.

Or you only act when there is a threat to your power. Which is what he has done.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Or you only act when there is a threat to your power. Which is what he has done.

Do you care to answer my last question, what is your proposal to reform the DOJ?

charlie14

tayto lover wrote: »

This puts Martin in check. His move.
Clever from Varadkar.
Very interesting if true. Shows no party wants an election.

I don`t see that it puts Martin in check.
The problem and reason for the vote of no confidence is Fitzgerald.
I do not see it doing Fitzgerald`s cause much good in that an offer to split Justice give the impression Varadkar believes it became such a basket case under her watch.

Odhinn

markodaly wrote: »

So it appears that behind the scenes Leo has put forward the idea that the Dept of Justice be split, into a Justice and Home Affairs department, thus effectively tearing up the place and neutering its power. A good move from Leo, use a crisis to push through a reform. MM has to be a brave man now to turn down the offer. A head on a plate does nothing, while splitting up the DOJ actually does something constructive.

.

...he's proposing a split with no thought whatsoever to avoid sacking an incompetent minister yet you were calling for a patton style report before people could ask a justice minister to act ethically. Pull the other one.

Water John

DOJ has been a basket case for many a year.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Do you care to answer my last question, what is your proposal to reform the DOJ?

That is not my job, nor what the thread is about.

Fann Linn

markodaly wrote: »

And your proposal to reform the DOJ is....?

And how does this deal with Fitzgerald being complicit in misleading the Dail and being incompetent?

sdanseo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So the point you are making here is that the 'uncommon man' votes for FG?

How arrogant is that inference?

Not at all the intended meaning of my post, which I thought was clear: that a large portion of SF voters are easily led, more by fault of the irresponsible politics than of their own. Dangle a carrot and someone will try to eat it.

Being cautious not to meander off topic - I don't at all see how splitting the DOJ into two on a whim like this will make a blind bit of difference and Martin would be a fool to agree to it.

The Gardaí need a root-and-branch removal of upper management (and I say that as a proponent of the force on the ground). Something like the ISER for civil servants in 2009-11 and just get rid of them and replace with others not from the culture which is toxic.

More civil servants and red tape is not the answer.

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

DOJ has been a basket case for many a year.

It has indeed, but this proposal comes because of the Fitzgerald vote of no confidence.
Doing it now makes it look as if it finally hit the skids under her watch.

Consonata

markodaly wrote:

Do you care to answer my last question, what is your proposal to reform the DOJ?

I don't its useful to childishly respond to a criticism of Leos way of reforming the DoJ with "So what would you do?"

Obviously any reform of the DoJ is going to be highly complex, and is likely going to lead to major reforms to hoe the DoJ and AGS interact with one another. It's not something a lay man will be able to summarise in an internet post.

sdanseo

charlie14 wrote: »

It has indeed, but this proposal comes because of the Fitzgerald vote of no confidence.
Doing it now makes it look as if it finally hit the skids under her watch.

Maybe it did. A lot of people crying scapegoat but the fact remains she was sent a mail which, reading between the lines, spelled out that AGS were going to throw their man to the wolves for speaking out of line.

I'm all for a healthy separation of the lawmakers from the law enforcers - but when those sort of antics start to occur the Minster for Justice needs to take strong and affirmative action to stamp it out, rather than hide behind the feeble and frankly pathetic excuse of "it would have been improper".

GSOC and the PA are a waste of public funds because they were both knee-jerk reactions that were ill thought out. A blank canvas with regard to policing in this country is needed, and has been for several years, but the govt keep on patching it because they're not up to the job (and I wonder if any party would be able for it, to be honest).

FrancieBrady

sdanseo wrote: »

Not at all the intended meaning of my post, which I thought was clear: that a large portion of SF voters are easily led, more by fault of the irresponsible politics than of their own. Dangle a carrot and someone will try to eat it.

Being cautious not to meander off topic - I don't at all see how splitting the DOJ into two on a whim like this will make a blind bit of difference and Martin would be a fool to agree to it.

The Gardaí need a root-and-branch removal of upper management (and I say that as a proponent of the force on the ground). Something like the ISER for civil servants in 2009-11 and just get rid of them and replace with others not from the culture which is toxic.

More civil servants and red tape is not the answer.

All parties dangle carrots to get elected. Oldest political game in the book

sdanseo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All parties dangle carrots to get elected. Oldest political game in the book

Difference here is, most parties dangle carrots that are edible.

FrancieBrady

charlie14 wrote: »

It has indeed, but this proposal comes because of the Fitzgerald vote of no confidence.
Doing it now makes it look as if it finally hit the skids under her watch.

It makes it look like it is Leo who is desperate to not have an election.

Clare Daly, before this offer, made a good point on the week in politics, that we are where we are precisely because any reform is in response to crisis.

Leo will be looking for random people on the internet to solve the problem next.

Sierra Oscar

sdanseo wrote: »

The Gardaí need a root-and-branch removal of upper management (and I say that as a proponent of the force on the ground). Something like the ISER for civil servants in 2009-11 and just get rid of them and replace with others not from the culture which is toxic.

More civil servants and red tape is not the answer.

This is already in the works. The Commission on the Future of Policing in Ireland has already been established and will issue its recommendations by September 2018. The whole whistleblower controversy led to its establishment. Huge changes are coming, senior Gardaí themselves acknowledge that it'll result in the biggest overhaul of the force since it's establishment. A key component of this will probably involve a clear out of management with retirement incentives - similar to what occurred with the disbanding of the RUC in the north.

We shouldn't confuse this current political crisis with the issues in An Garda Síochána. Yes, obviously they are linked. However what's at play here is the dysfunction within the Department of Justice. That is what is being exposed, and the issue is that no mechanism has been put in place to overhaul the Department to go hand in hand with the redesign of An Garda Síochána.

Make no mistake about it - the overhaul of An Garda Síochána will ultimately fail unless the dysfunction in Department of Justice is sorted out.

Splitting the Department of Justice into two and creating a specific Department of Home Affairs is actually a massive change. It would be the greatest redesign of how the administration of justice works since the foundation of the State.

charlie14

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It makes it look like it is Leo who is desperate to not have an election.

So maybe he isn`t as politically savvy as some here are crediting him, painting himself into a corner where for regardless of all the other reasons even his own TD`s expected her gone, he had the perfect opportunity to be shot of Fitzgerald when she said nothing and leaving him to mislead the Dail.

Fann Linn

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

This is already in the works. The Commission on the Future of Policing in Ireland has already been established and will issue its recommendations by September 2018. The whole whistleblower controversy led to its establishment. Huge changes are coming, senior Gardaí themselves acknowledge that it'll result in the biggest overhaul of the force since it's establishment. A key component of this will probably involve a clear out of management with retirement incentives - similar to what occurred with the disbanding of the RUC in the north.

We shouldn't confuse this current political crisis with the issues in An Garda Síochána. Yes, obviously they are linked. However what's at play here is the dysfunction within the Department of Justice. That is what is being exposed, and the issue is that no mechanism has been put in place to overhaul the Department to go hand in hand with the redesign of An Garda Síochána.

Make no mistake about it - the overhaul of An Garda Síochána will ultimately fail unless the dysfunction in Department of Justice is sorted out.

Splitting the Department of Justice into two and creating a specific Department of Home Affairs is actually a massive change. It would be the greatest redesign of how the administration of justice works since the foundation of the State.

We'll probably just end up with another FG Minister who won't remember getting important emails so.

Water John

I would be asking for the complete overhaul to be well under way within 12 months. Not the first report, FFS. A complete joke.

charlie14

Fann Linn wrote: »

We'll probably just end up with another FG Minister who won't remember getting important emails so.

Or a double whammy of a senior and junior minister.:pac:

Fann Linn

charlie14 wrote: »

Or a double whammy of a senior and junior minister.:pac:

With pensions.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Smacks of papering over cracks.

Hitman3000 wrote: »

The vote of no confidence is in Fitzgerald not the DoJ. Fitzgerald is still incompetent nothing Leo offers changes that.

charlie14 wrote: »

Tbh, it sounds like nothing much more than a rearrangement of deckchairs on the Titanic

And so it begins.

blanch152 wrote: »

I am getting the feeling that as wiser heads in FF prevail over the last couple of days, those on here that were jumping around in glee with the prospect of securing the head of Fitzgerald, are getting a little bitter that it no longer looks likely to happen.

I swear that I had not read the Examiner before I posted this. It seems that a deal is getting closer and the prospect of Fitzgerald being dumped by Leo is receding. The Indo is reporting more talks tomorrow, so the end-game is being reached.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/some-progress-made-as-talks-between-leo-varadkar-and-michel-martin-to-resume-on-monday-36354219.html

I am sure that the mob will turn on Martin over the coming days. We will see people up in arms over him seeing sense. The bile and invective will increase on social media. It will be an interesting few days online.

Fann Linn

blanch152 wrote: »

And so it begins.



I swear that I had not read the Examiner before I posted this. It seems that a deal is getting closer and the prospect of Fitzgerald being dumped by Leo is receding. The Indo is reporting more talks tomorrow, so the end-game is being reached.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/some-progress-made-as-talks-between-leo-varadkar-and-michel-martin-to-resume-on-monday-36354219.html

I am sure that the mob will turn on Martin over the coming days. We will see people up in arms over him seeing sense. The bile and invective will increase on social media. It will be an interesting few days online.

Your link says that MM wants Fitzgerald binned. Why would the mob turn on him?

Hitman3000

blanch152 wrote:

I am sure that the mob will turn on Martin over the coming days. We will see people up in arms over him seeing sense. The bile and invective will increase on social media. It will be an interesting few days online.

Martin has to answer to his party, genuinely can't see them backing down again. The only thing exercising Leo and Martin is the fear of being accused of causing an election.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

And so it begins.



I swear that I had not read the Examiner before I posted this. It seems that a deal is getting closer and the prospect of Fitzgerald being dumped by Leo is receding. The Indo is reporting more talks tomorrow, so the end-game is being reached.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/some-progress-made-as-talks-between-leo-varadkar-and-michel-martin-to-resume-on-monday-36354219.html

I am sure that the mob will turn on Martin over the coming days. We will see people up in arms over him seeing sense. The bile and invective will increase on social media. It will be an interesting few days online.

The trawl of the DOJ finishes tomorrow too.
I have no doubt Martin will cut a deal to suit himself.
We, as they say will see.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The trawl of the DOJ finishes tomorrow too.
I have no doubt Martin will cut a deal to suit himself.
We, as they say will see.

I have been saying for a couple of days now that Martin will back down and there will be a deal. I was dismissed as a fantasist at first but glad to see at least one coming round to my point of view.

If he succeeds, Leo will have played this very carefully and well.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I have been saying for a couple of days now that Martin will back down and there will be a deal. I was dismissed as a fantasist at first but glad to see at least one coming round to my point of view.

If he succeeds, Leo will have played this very carefully and well.

I have been saying the same thing. But the denouement will be different. Fitzgerald will get a chance to do the victim resignation speech and MM (adding this in light of the Examiner) will get to go on about substantive progress on reform and affirm confidence to continue. FG supporters will get to go on aboyt savvy wise Leo. And we will all live happily.. etc etc etc

Edward M

The crux of the issue for me personally is, if Fitzgerald, minister for justice at the time, is guilty of incompetence, that is really what the vote is about on Tuesday.
Did she do her job to the best of her ability, if she did and couldn't remember that email and allowed her party leader to go on record without checking the facts, then she was certainly incompetent imv.
If she was incompetent, then how can there be confidence in her?