The Frances Fitzgerald controversy. Are we heading for an election?

FrancieBrady

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Only for the current make up of the Dail, this would have been papered over,
declared a "nothing to see here incident "
voted on,
vote passed,
buried.

Absolutely the case and that was attempted.

Chips Lovell

If she resigns today, it'll be a major own goal for Varadkar. If he was going to cut her loose, he should have done so last week rather than let it run all weekend. I'm assuming (and I may be wrong) that she's staying put because it suits him to have an election now or, at the very least, he thinks it suits the opposition less than it does FG. But if he lets her go now, he's just wasted a load of political capital for no reason.

FreudianSlippers

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, the problem I have with Frances is that she lied, repeatedly. And she clearly misled others in an attempt to cover up what she knew. That is more than enough to call her to account.

I also don't believe that her hands were tied legally on this as do an awful lot of more expert commentators. But that one is still playing out.

I agree that the issue here is her dishonesty or incompetence... but her hands were tied on the underlying issue.

The bigger ****-up IMO is that this was put into email! Anyone with any sense knows that these types of things should not be put into emails, let alone forwarded on to a Minister.

FreudianSlippers

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

If she resigns today, it'll be a major own goal for Varadkar. If he was going to cut her loose, he should have done so last week rather than let it run all weekend. I'm assuming (and I may be wrong) that she's staying put because it suits him to have an election now or, at the very least, he thinks it suits the opposition less than it does FG. But if he lets her go now, he's just wasted a load of political capital for no reason.

I think if Varadkar believes that he can get a FG majority, particularly on the basis of the carry-on the past 5 days, he's off his rocker!

FreudianSlippers

Fianna Fail's spokesperson on Public Expenditure and Reform Dara Calleary has said "the situation can be resolved without having a general election".

"Our position all along is that she has to go, that hasn't changed," he told RTE's Today with Sean O'Rourke show.
"We're not after heads here. Frances Fitzgerald is a fine politician with a good record, but her handling of this situation leaves a damaged legacy."
Mr Calleary said that Fianna Fáil needs confidence for there to be a confidence and supply agreement and they don't have confidence in Frances Fitzgerald.

"Our job is to hold the Government to political accountability."
He said the Charleton Tribunal will hold her to account for her action within the Department of Justice, but she has to be held to account for giving "false" information to the Dáil and the Taoiseach.

Emphasis mine. Very glad to see that FF isn't driving the country to a cliff-edge for the craic; but the key point they have made is the last line. The argument about letting the tribunal do its job is perfectly fine with regard to her action at the DoJ, but I don't see how anyone could have confidence in Fitzgerald as the Tánaiste at this point.

This isn't an either / or situation.

Nettle Soup

The DoJ drew up the terms of reference for Charleton so they knew exactly what was required.

The opening statement for Charleton made it quite clear when evidence needed to be supplied.

While the tribunal has already made a range of orders preserving or requiring the handing over of documents, if any person has a phone, computer, electronic records or paper records, relevant to the terms of reference, then these should be brought to the tribunal within the same timeframe.

The DoJ neglected to supply vital information (the smear campaign emails sent to several senior DoJ officials).

The Minister lied about the vital information. Several times.

She has to go and the DoJ and Gardai are not fit for purpose.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

In the event of an election, would F Fitz run? would she be electable? Would she be cabinet-able in the event of a FG-led govt?

Her capital must be at a nadir anyway, and her position untenable.

hatrickpatrick

blanch152 wrote: »

People can't have it both ways. Either we want the Minister for Justice to be able to interfere with Garda operations or we don't.

How about those of us who just want members of the cabinet to answer questions, and answer them honestly, from members of the Oireachtas?

Nettle Soup

She will resign by noon today.

deathtocaptcha

Nettle Soup wrote: »

She will resign by noon today.

No she won't.

tayto lover

Has there been any new information today?

If Fitzgerald is already proven to have lied then she should go or be pushed.
Maybe the DoJ is just releasing stuff bit by bit to push her overboard. There would be a lot of political "leanings" in all Departments and someone might like a change of direction.
It would be a good time to change those at the head of the Gardai, HSE, etc.
A clean sweep so to speak.

TCDStudent1

deathtocaptcha wrote: »

No she won't.

What do they want her to resign from? Is it just being tanaiste? Or to resign from cabinet? Or resign her seat completely?

hatrickpatrick

tobsey wrote: »

I really don't think that's what it has been. It's been largely a lame duck with very little being achieved. We could do with a period of stability and make some progress without everything being delayed in order to allow everyone score points.

Consider the alternative, drawing evidence from the previous FG/Lab government. Following last night's revelations, I don't think there are many people left who do not believe that the minister should resign. Varadkar refuses to sack her - and if his government enjoyed a majority, they would allow her to stay in office and there would be literally nothing that anybody could do about it. I guarantee you 100% that if FG had a majority coalition right now, Frances FitzGerald's tenure wouldn't even be in question. Not even a remote possibility of accountability.

A majority government works if the party with a majority behaves honourably and subjects itself to accountability. FG did not do this during the 2011-2016 government - in fact, they operated on a continuous paradigm of "nobody in our government ever gets held accountable for wrongdoing, in any circumstance, ever". In the current scenario, the opposition are actually able to perform their function in holding the cabinet accountable, and the idea of losing that after such a brief breath of fresh air against the tyrannical practises of majority coalitions is incredibly depressing.

FreudianSlippers

Nettle Soup wrote: »

She will resign by noon today.

Unconfirmed reports from cabinet seem to back this.

deathtocaptcha

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

What do they want her to resign from? Is it just being tanaiste? Or to resign from cabinet? Or resign her seat completely?

They don't care... its just an excuse to force a surprise election which presumably they feel will hurt FG and result in FF getting back in to power.

FrancieBrady

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Consider the alternative, drawing evidence from the previous FG/Lab government. Following last night's revelations, I don't think there are many people left who do not believe that the minister should resign. Varadkar refuses to sack her - and if his government enjoyed a majority, they would allow her to stay in office and there would be literally nothing that anybody could do about it. I guarantee you 100% that if FG had a majority coalition right now, Frances FitzGerald's tenure wouldn't even be in question. Not even a remote possibility of accountability.

A majority government works if the party with a majority behaves honourably and subjects itself to accountability. FG did not do this during the 2011-2016 government - in fact, they operated on a continuous paradigm of "nobody in our government ever gets held accountable for wrongdoing, in any circumstance, ever". In the current scenario, the opposition are actually able to perform their function in holding the cabinet accountable, and the idea of losing that after such a brief breath of fresh air against the tyrannical practises of majority coalitions is incredibly depressing.

Hence the absolute 'indignant' anger of Eoin Murphy, Pascal Donohue and Simon Harris when they were dispatched to defend immediately after this broke. Murphy actually went red in the face on Prime Time. The arrogance was astonishing imo.
The genuine 'how dare you suggest we did wrong' anger was a thing to behold.

FreudianSlippers

deathtocaptcha wrote: »

They don't care... its just an excuse to force a surprise election which presumably they feel will hurt FG and result in FF getting back in to power.

Nonsense - FF have been clear that they will drop the motion if Fitzgerald resigns as Tánaiste.

hatrickpatrick

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Nonsense - FF have been clear that they will drop the motion if Fitzgerald resigns as Tánaiste.

If she resigned and they persisted with pushing an election, they'd get utterly slaughtered in it.

Fann Linn

Howlin: 'She made a patsy of the Taoiseach'.
Illustrates exactly what she did.

deathtocaptcha

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Nonsense - FF have been clear that they will drop the motion if Fitzgerald resigns as Tánaiste.

It's a bluff move... of course they're going to say that as they've nothing to lose in doing so at this stage.

If she resigns, FF get one over on FG and win public admiration. Taoiseach and senior ministers will also have had to go back on their stance making them look weak. However, if that happens, FF also can't continue to supply confidence & support given what has gone on so it won't be long until there's another target painted on someone or something.

Nettle Soup

Fann Linn wrote: »

Howlin: 'She made a patsy of the Taoiseach'.
Illustrates exactly what she did.

Yeah I am disappointed with Leo. I thought he was the best of a new breed of Irish politician.
His judgement in this fiasco was very poor.
I am sure he will recover but I will not vote FG in the next election.

They have failed McCabe again and again. FFG have no honour.

Tell me how

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If she resigned and they persisted with pushing an election, they'd get utterly slaughtered in it.

I'm not sure. This debacle has shown very poor form on behalf of FG. Should we end up with an election, I think there's a 50/50 chance that people will blame FG for not nipping it in the bud by firing her last week.

I think it's an indication that senior people in FG also knew what was going on and so they are trying to support her rather than have that come out. I don't think we've seen the end of the revelations yet.

Tony EH

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Yeah I am disappointed with Leo. I thought he was the best of a new breed of Irish politician.
His judgement in this fiasco was very poor.
I am sure he will recover but I will not vote FG this time around.

Why, what have you seen from Varadkar up til now that would furnish such a conclusion?

Dyr

I assumed Fitzgerald was toast after what came out at the weekend

Be interesting to see what compelling Varadker to keep backing her, is it just brinkmanship or has she got some collateral?

Tell me how

Bambi wrote: »

I assumed Fitzgerald was toast after what came out at the weekend

Be interesting to see what compelling Varadker to keep backing her, is it just brinkmanship or has she got some collateral?

impossible to imagine they've suffered through everything so far out of sheer loyalty.

hatrickpatrick

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not sure. This debacle has shown very poor form on behalf of FG. Should we end up with an election, I think there's a 50/50 chance that people will blame FG for not nipping it in the bud by firing her last week.

I think it's an indication that senior people in FG also knew what was going on and so they are trying to support her rather than have that come out. I don't think we've seen the end of the revelations yet.

Agree on all this, but I'd hope people are getting to the stage at which cycling between FF and FG are no longer seen as the only options in Irish politics. If she resigns and FF still force an election, that's when I suspect a lot of people would full-on revolt and start voting for smaller parties en masse.

Sierra Oscar

It seems she has finally resigned.

https://twitter.com/MartinaFitzg/status/935472203973488641

One minister has informed me that @FitzgeraldFrncs has resigned. @rtenews #GE17

devnull

So there should be no election if that's true, unless FF have been calling LV's bluff all along and are about to pull a political stroke and put their interests before the country.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

no chance they do that now.

FreudianSlippers

So. #GE17 off the table, but can we stave off an early #GE18?

Sierra Oscar

devnull wrote: »

So there should be no election if that's true, unless FF have been calling LV's bluff all along and are about to pull a political stroke.

Fianna Fáil have already said they do not want an election and will withdraw the motion if she resigns. It falls automatically in anycase.

They'll probably get more concessions from Fine Gael when they renegotiate the Confidence and Supply Arrangement. Fine Gael are in chaos, they won't be in a position to contest an election for a few months.

The Taoiseach has handled this terribly.

devnull

Leroy Fit Gunpoint wrote: »

no chance they do that now.

I think there will be an election very soon, maybe not before Christmas now but not long after, FF will now look to exploit anything whilst the government are down.

devnull

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fianna Fáil have already said they do not want an election and will withdraw the motion if she resigns. It falls automatically in anycase.

Lets see how much we can trust them to stick to that shall we.

Anyway, lets hope it's true for the good of the country.

FreudianSlippers

We just need to ensure that (1) we exercise veto if UK tries to push border to stage 2; (2) we don't have an election before stage 2 starts.

McMurphy

devnull wrote: »

I think there will be an election very soon, maybe not before Christmas now but not long after, FF will now look to exploit anything whilst the government are down.

Charlie Flanagan will be next in the crosshairs.

mikep

Today FM reporting that Frances Fitzgerald has resigned....

lifeandtimes

If there is an election called, how long will it be before it actually happens?

I've to change my address on the register and I know that takes something like 2 weeks at least or so I've heard

Nettle Soup

Tony EH wrote: »

Why, what have you seen from Varadkar up til now that would furnish such a conclusion?

Before he got Health, I liked his rhetoric. He was open and honest which was refreshing during the Enda era.
Since Health, his standing has gone down in my opinion. He did nothing positive in Health.

Actually...where is Simon Harris lately??
Now there's a sneaky one!

Dinarius

As predicted....

Am waiting for the "with deep regret" speech from Leo.

Mickey Martin gets his head on a plate.

Leo looks like seriously damaged goods to me.

Happiest in all of this will be Simon Coveney who must be wetting himself with glee. He has come out of this very well.

D.

Ps. Oh, and Winston Churchtown will get to cut the ribbon on the Luas extension and not have to knock on my door, amongst many others.

Nettle Soup

lifeandtimes wrote: »

If there is an election called, how long will it be before it actually happens?

I've to change my address on the register and I know that takes something like 2 weeks at least or so I've heard

Tanaiste resigned. No election in 2017.

snowflaker

Election in Feb/Mar I predict

Flanagan to go next?

Leonard Hofstadter

Thanks be to Jesus there is still a modicum of common sense in Government buildings. Absolutely the right decision.

If FF were to go to the electorate after she'd resigned then they would get the blame - and rightly so.

Look, this thing is unbelievably embarrassing for FG, the Government and most of all the country but it will be forgotten about in a few weeks and normal service will resume.

The issue is not that she did nothing, it's the fact she was told about it and lied repeatedly. Lies and incompetence are unforgivable especially for the second in command in Government. It's only natural to make mistakes and they on their own are not hanging offences. Everyone makes mistakes, it's part of human nature. What she did is much more grave than that. And I don't know how you could 'forget' something to do with Maurice McCabe given all the controversy. Why is telling the truth so hard? That's why her position was untenable in my view and the correct decision has been taken.

Hollister11

Watch leo gear up and take Fianna Fail out in the next election.

He's a master of elections for himself, hopefully it benefits Fine Gael at the the next election.

Tell me how

Dinarius wrote: »

Happiest in all of this will be Simon Coveney who must be wetting himself with glee. He has come out of this very well.

Not after his appearance on CB Live last night. He will be the next FG leader but shouldn't be fooled in to thinking he will be loved or respected too much.

FreudianSlippers

Hollister11 wrote: »

Watch leo gear up and take Fianna Fail out in the next election.

He's a master of elections for himself, hopefully it benefits Fine Gael at the the next election.

I don't see how anyone can view this past 5 days as a positive for Varadkar or FG?

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Why is Flanagan a target?

Sierra Oscar

Hollister11 wrote: »

Watch leo gear up and take Fianna Fail out in the next election.

He's a master of elections for himself, hopefully it benefits Fine Gael at the the next election.

I don't think Fianna Fáil will be too frightened of Leo the mouse after this fiasco.

snowflaker

Leroy Fit Gunpoint wrote: »

Why is Flanagan a target?

He is the current Juatice Minister- he would have seen the emails too

Tell me how

Hollister11 wrote: »

Watch leo gear up and take Fianna Fail out in the next election.

He's a master of elections for himself, hopefully it benefits Fine Gael at the the next election.

On what evidence?
Leo has handed FF their strategy for the next election, whenever it happens.

They only thing i'd be confident of is that FG will suffer over this more than FF, SF. Whether that will mean FF will be in power, I don't know but FG are the big losers in this.

tobsey

Leroy Fit Gunpoint wrote: »

Why is Flanagan a target?

He's the current Minister for Justice and it looks like his department didn't fully disclose information to the tribunal. Alan Kelly is out for him too because Flanagan repeatedly shouted down Kelly's questions and Kelly has now been proven correct.