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December 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,023 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    pauldry wrote: »
    -6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen

    And let's just leave that min there! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭waterways


    pauldry wrote: »
    -6.6c is the new monthly min Casement I think or was it Gurteen
    Yes Casement had -6.6, Gurteen reached -6.3 after leading with -5.8 the day before


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT has fallen to 4.7 C after the cold spell, might edge down a little further before recovering after 18th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here's the situation after two weeks ...

    IMT on 4.5 C (4.46) with second week a cool 2.1 C which was 3.6 below normal. Figure on this to edge down to about 4.3 after Saturday then reach low 5's by Christmas Day, possibly staying just about in that area or falling back to 4.8-5.0 to end of month (from today's GFS run).

    PRC has reached 113% of normal with this past week quite wet (163% on average). This appears likely to stay in a similar range with some opportunities ahead for heavy falls but also some dry spells.

    SUN is now at 90% of normal with the second week quite average at 94% (562/600). This will likely improve somewhat towards Christmas but may then fall back below normal if the models are right about the parade of fronts to New Years.

    MAX remains 14.2

    MIN now -6.6 which is what Tae laidir and Dacogawa predicted. There are now four out of 23 forecasters who can use any further drops in MIN (seems unlikely) but two of us are probably happy enough with the --6.6.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,023 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Shannon posted a 14.5c max as it got fair for an hour in the middle of the mild 19th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,117 ✭✭✭John mac


    pauldry wrote: »
    Shannon posted a 14.5c max as it got fair for an hour in the middle of the mild 19th.

    that will do me :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after three weeks ...

    The IMT is now on 5.4 C and rising about 0.2 per day in this mild spell, as the third week averaged 7.2 (1.8 above average). That rise will likely slow for the next three days and after that, a colder trend may drag it back to around 5.2 for a finish.

    PRC has fallen to 90% of normal as this past week has been quite dry (especially for a mild spell) with only 44% of the average for the period. I think the 90% may slowly inflate back towards normal as it looks relatively unsettled.

    SUN has slipped back to 86% with this past week on 77.5% (465/600) -- Shannon and Dublin were above their average values and Casement close, but the other three closer to the west or south coasts were considerably below. I could imagine this rising slightly just because the late December normals are so low that any breaks will run up a good total.

    MAX now 14.5 and MIN remains --6.6.

    If I don't post again before the Christmas Day report, have a wonderful Christmas and stay out of trouble.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,023 ✭✭✭pauldry


    "stay out of trouble."

    I fear some trouble Stephens night as I slip on black ice and spill a tin of Guinness over a bouncer in Ballina.

    Apart from that should be grand.

    Hv a jolly Xmas across the pond n hope it doesnt go too low temperature wise for ye.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I had a look at the guidance and at the moment it would appear that the Dublin (A) max will be above 10 and the min could be close to freezing by end of the 24h day, so let's say 10.5 and 0.0 as estimates for that, and I think the yes squad has a chance especially later in the day around Knock.

    So with that in mind, if I go with these early estimates (5.2, 14.5, -6.6, 100, 100) for the five main elements, these would be the scores in play (gives you an idea in which way you hope I'm wrong in these estimates) ...

    I did them in the order of the table then placed them in order.

    Remember, these are hazy estimates, the PRC and SUN in particular could end up considerably different. I don't currently see any strong opportunities for MAX or MIN to shift and if MAX edges up then minimum progression will kick in anyway. At -6.6 there could be a bit of a boost for lower scores but it will be 50% of the usual boost as there are two unaided scores of 20/20.

    NormaL __________ 89

    Jpmarn ___________81
    john mac__________80
    Dacogawa __ 77-2 = 75
    Kindred Spirit ______75

    Con Sensus _______ 75

    Pauldry ___________74
    Tae laidir _________ 73
    Sunflower3 ________72
    mickger844posts ___ 71
    M.T. Cranium ______ 70
    Dasa29 ___________68
    sdanseo __________ 67
    waterways __ 70-3 = 67
    JCXBXC___________ 66
    Lumi _____________65
    MrSkinner _________61
    Rameire __________ 60
    Bsal _____________ 58
    sryanbruen ________57
    Rikand _____66-10= 56
    DOCARCH _________55
    Joe Public _________55
    200motels ___ 51-4=47
    BLIZZARD7 __ 46-1=45

    Not a very large spread in scoring, based on these assumptions, I think it's mostly the PRC and SUN that could help you gain on these numbers, so we'll see at end of the month how close those estimates were. I don't recall seeing NormaL leading any month before, there may have been one occasion though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,781 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Dublin Airport 25th max 11.6 min 1.7 and no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, not having much luck determining if snow fell at Knock on 25th as seems possible, there were pictures of snow at other higher locations and I noticed one hour with measurable precip and a temperature of 2 C. Because of the holiday, no observers. I am inclined to say no snow for the bonus but if anyone has any visual evidence from anywhere reasonably close to Knock, may change that.

    As Joe said above, Dublin 11.6 and 1.7 for max and min.

    Scoring for the temperature portion (10 points) will be as follows (the numbers in brackets are the total error for max and min, JPmarn was closest on max at 10.0 and MrSkinner closest to the min at 1.8 ...:

    JPmarn (2.4), john mac (2.8), Tae laidir (2.9) _____ 10
    200motels (3.0), MrSkinner (3.2) ________________ 9
    Pauldry (3.3) Joe Public (3.4), NormaL (3.4) ________8
    Sunflower3 (3.8), sryanbruen (4.0) _______________7
    Con Sensus (4.3) and Bsal (4.3), JCXBXC (4.7) _____ 6
    mickger844posts (4.8), Rameire (4.9) ____________ 5
    Rikand (5.3), waterways and Dacogawa (5.9) ______ 4
    Kindred Spirit (6.9) ___________________________ 3
    Lumi and M.T. Cranium (7.8) ___________________ 2
    DOCARCH (10.3), sdanseo (11.0) ________________1
    Dasa29 (11.8), BLIZZARD7 (11.9) _______________ 0


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 5.5, the fourth week had four very mild days followed by three rather cold ones, it averaged out at 5.9 C which is 0.6 above average. I now figure this will finish on 5.3 or 5.4.

    MAX remains 14.5 and MIN remains --6.6, coldest this past few days appears to be around -4.

    PRC has edged up to 94% of normal, with this past week at 105%. Look for this to finish almost exactly on normal as the last three days will probably be wet enough.

    SUN has edged back down to 88% of normal with this past week managing 83.5% of normal (501/6) ... this could finish on 90% if the sun makes longish appearances on the 31st.

    These slightly revised values plus the determined bonus scoring (I think we will have to go with "no" which was different from the estimates in the table above) will change scores somewhat from the table I posted earlier. In any case, I think most of the contenders for the annual awards said no, so they would all improve by the same six points as a result of switching that around, and persons such as myself would sink further into the depths.

    Rather than reworking that table, I will just wait for the final results which I guess will be available on the 3rd of January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So according to the Monthly Data portion of the met.ie website,

    IMT was 5.6 (all those mild readings in the south past three days kept it from falling)

    PRC appears to be close to 108% (I will confirm this from MS)

    SUN has probably stalled around 90% (some better amounts yesterday but probably no big impact)

    MAX was likely 14.5 and MIN --6.6

    Rather than speculating on scores, I will wait for the MS to appear on 3rd, if so, look for final December and then annual scoring reports.

    Happy new year to all, in case you didn't already enter, January 2018 thread is open and it looks like most have entered already, new talent always welcome too ... and the late penalties are relaxed in general for 2018 (see post 1 in Jan thread) but in particular are not biting very hard for January, we just passed -1 and will only reach -5 by 1500h tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    I have copied the Annual Scoring Tables from 2012 to 2016.
    When you have finished counting Angels, perhaps you may wish to find yourself.


    Annual Scoring Table 2012

    (MTC)
    Rank*. Forecaster ... J .. F ..M .. A .. M ..J .. J .. A ..S .. O .. N ..D .. Yr Total .. Contest (rank)

    1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48..87..79 ..... 692 ... 605 (1)
    2 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62..77..72 ..... 670 ... 599 (2)
    3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30..74..64 ..... 654 ... 585 (3)
    5 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48..79..76 ..... 644 ... 576 (4)
    4 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58..53..65 ..... 648 ... 564 (5)
    7 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55..64..58 ..... 610 ... 553 (6)

    7 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58..84..54 ..... 610 ... 551 (7)

    10. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33..74..67 ..... 596 ... 548 (7)
    9 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40..57..74 ..... 598 ... 547 (8)
    8 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44..78..45 ..... 601 ... 538 (9)
    6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41..58..71 ..... 616 ... 537 (10-t)
    13. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61..61..68 ..... 590 ... 537 (10-t)
    12. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61..80..75 ..... 593 ... 536 (12)
    14. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51..80..44 ..... 578 ... 535 (13)
    11. waterways .......58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44..59..66 ..... 595 ... 533 (14-t)
    15. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56..71..42 ..... 575 ... 533 (14-t)
    20. snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52..83..56 ..... 567 ... 529 (16)
    18. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51..78..64 ..... 570 ... 527 (17-t)
    16. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41..61..82 ..... 574 ... 527 (17-t)
    18. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77..48..53 ..... 570 ... 517 (19)
    17. jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53..71..35 ..... 572 ... 509 (20)
    26. Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35..39..51..69..65..60 ..... 526 ... 506 (21)
    22. delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42..65..63 ..... 541 ... 501 (22)
    21. homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40..67..59 ..... 542 ... 499 (23)
    33. lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44..67..57 ..... 489 ... 489 (24)
    25. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44..57..60 ..... 527 ... 488 (25)
    28. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47..65..40 ..... 509 ... 486 (26)
    23. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33..62..37 ..... 537 ... 481 (27)
    27. SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32..58..66 ..... 517 ... 473 (28)
    30. Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50..75..40 ..... 500 ... 471 (29)
    24. traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44..63..56 ..... 536 ... 469 (30)
    35. Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66..61..66 ..... 484 ... 468 (31)
    32. dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55..50..41 ..... 492 ... 461 (32)
    37. talkabout ..........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44..75..56 ..... 465 ... 460 (33)
    31. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24..64..52 ..... 498 ... 456 (34)
    29. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61..73..30 ..... 501 ... 455 (35)
    36. NIALL D ............29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47..70..36 ..... 473 ... 453 (36)
    34. dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37..64..41 ..... 488 ... 443 (37)
    39. redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..--..--..40..20 ..... 315 ... 315 (38)

    Annual scoring report 2013

    rank/
    best 10 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D __ Total
    01 608 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 _ 40 __ 668 (2)

    01 602 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 _ 47 __ 683 (1)
    02 579 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 _ 35 __ 646 (2)
    03 566 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 _ 41 __ 641 (3)
    04 560 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 _ 29 __ 610 (5)
    05 557 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 579 (13)
    06 553 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 _ 62 __ 625 (4)
    07 545 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 _ 66 __ 591 (10t)
    08 541 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 _ 84 __ 599 (6)
    08 541 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67 _ 44 __ 591 (10t)
    10 527 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 _ 40 __ 593 (8t)
    11 525 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 _ 33 __ 593 (8t)
    12 524 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- _ --- __ 524 (21)
    13 522 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 _ 55 __ 580 (12)
    14 521 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 _ 43 __ 568 (15)
    14 521 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 _ 40 __ 542 (20)
    16 518 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 _ 61 __ 596 (7)
    17 510 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 _ 37 __ 571 (14)
    18 500 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 _ 23 __ 544 (19)
    19 499 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ --- _ 11 __ 510 (22)
    20 496 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 _ 33 __ 547 (17t)
    21 490 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 _ 29 __ 554 (16)
    22 486 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ --- _ 69 _ 45 _ 33 __ 503 (23)
    22 486 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 _ 30 __ 547 (17t)
    24 480 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 _ 43 __ 494 (24)
    25 472 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 _ --- __ 472 (28)
    26 464 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- _ 30 __ 478 (27)
    27 463 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 _ --- __ 490 (25)
    28 444 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 _ 43 __ 486 (26)
    29 437 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 _ 25 __ 453 (29)
    30 407 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 _ --- __ 407 (31)
    31 394 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 _ 26 __ 426 (30)

    Annual Scores 2014

    Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D ___ TOTAL __ Best 10/12 (rank)

    01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 _ 79__844____740 (1)
    01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 _ 77__791____689 (1)
    02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71_ 81__737____688 (2)
    06 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 _ 57__711____651 (3)
    05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 _ 72__713____643 (4)
    03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 _ 88 __720____641 (5)
    08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 _ 60__694____628 (6)
    07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 _ 60__700____626 (7)
    09 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 _ 77__690____616 (8)
    04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 _ 52__715____615 (9)
    10 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 _ 52__689____612 (10)
    11 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 _ 77 __666____599 (11)
    18 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 _ 80 __596____596 (12)
    14 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 _ 77 __662____595 (13)
    17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 _ 63 __638____589 (14)
    12 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 73 __664____585 (15)
    13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 _ 51 __663____577 (16)
    15 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 _ 51 __648____569 (17)
    17 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 _ 51 __637____566 (18)
    20 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 50 __590____554 (19)
    18 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 _ 71 __596____544 (20)
    21 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 _ 47 __579____523 (21)

    Annual Scores 2015
    FORECASTER ______ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct _Nov _ Dec __ 2015 Total (rank) _________________________________________________________________________ best 10/12 (rank)

    Jpmarn ____________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 _ 80 _ 31 __ 744 (3) ____ 669 (1)

    Con Sensus ________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 _ 70 _ 47 __ 769 (1) ____ 667 (2)

    M.T. Cranium _______68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 _ 68 _ 49 __ 724 (6) ____ 661 (2)
    Lumi ______________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 _ 65 _ 49 __ 761 (1) ____ 659 (3)
    MrSkinner __________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 _ 70 _ 52 __ 705 (12) ___ 658 (4)
    Rikand ____________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 _ 49 _ 69 __ 745 (2) ____ 648 (5)
    sunflower3 _________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 _ 78 _ 47 __ 737 (4) ____ 646 (6)
    dasa29 ____________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 _ 61 _ 41 __ 727 (5) ____ 641 (7)
    mickger844posts ____ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 _ 55 _ 58 __ 708 (9t) ___ 635 (8)
    Schadenfreudia ______61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 _ 90 _ 45 __ 708 (9t) ___ 634 (9)
    rameire ___________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 _ 66 _ 37 __ 710 (8) ____ 633 (10)
    Tae laidir __________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 _ 75 _ 43 __ 708 (9t) ____ 632 (11)
    lostinashford _______ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 61 _ 61 __ 680 (17t) ___ 628 (12)
    Bsal ______________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 _ 54 _ 44 __ 717 (7) _____ 625 (13)

    Norma L (*) ________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 47 _ 29 __ 695 (13) ____ 622 (14)

    DOCARCH __________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 _ 51 _ 36 __ 691 (15) ____ 619 (t14)
    dacogawa __________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 _ 80 _ 37 __ 656 (20) ____ 619 (t14)
    John mac __________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 _ 64 _ 33 __ 694 (14) ____ 611 (16)
    jd ________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 _ 63 _ 43 __ 680 (17t) ___ 606 (t17)
    omicron ____________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 _ 77 _ 59 __ 682 (16) ___ 606 (t17)
    Pauldry ____________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 _ 58 _ 46 __ 696 (13) ___ 602 (19)
    200motels __________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 _ 63 _ 51 __ 628 (22) ___ 598 (20)
    Joe Public __________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 _ 66 _ 41 __ 674 (19) ___ 594 (21)
    kindredspirit ________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 _ 56 _ 50 __ 631 (21) ___ 584 (22)
    Harps _____________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 _ --- _ --- __ 577 (23) ___ 577 (23)
    Norma L (no *) ______ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 _ 38 _ 15 __ 579 (23) ___ 535 (24)
    waterways __________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 _ --- _ 56 __ 520 (24) ___ 520 (24)

    Annual scoring Jan to Dec 2016

    best 10 of 12 ___________________________________________________________ all months

    rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)

    01 717 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 _ 89 __ 802 (2)
    02 702 MrSkinner______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 _ 79 __ 818 (1)

    03 698 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 _ 61 __ 804 (2)

    03 689 Lumi __________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 _ 66 __ 768 (4)
    04 672 Dacogawa ______ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 _ 51 __ 769 (3)
    05 667 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 _ 76 __ 751 (6)
    06 663 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 _ 41 __ 744 (8t)
    07 655 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 _ 69 __ 732 (10)
    08 653 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 _ 62 __ 744 (8t)
    09 651 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 _ 56 __ 756 (5)
    10 649 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 _ 41 __ 716 (12t)

    16 649 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 _ 81 __ 744 (8t)

    11 647 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 _ 42 __ 683 (16)
    12 646 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 _ 58 __ 745 (7)
    13 640 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 __ 730 (11)
    14 630 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 _ 55 __ 707 (15)
    15 628 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 _ 60 __ 712 (14)
    16 623 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 _ 53 __ 716 (12t)
    17 615 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 _ 33 __ 675 (18)
    18 614 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 _ 50 __ 682 (17)
    19 610 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 _ 61 __ 669 (20)
    20 601 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 _ 46 __ 675 (19)
    21 590 kindredspirit ____ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 _ 44 __ 625 (21)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looks like my eyesight has been improving then over that period. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The final values for December have now been confirmed with the help of the Monthly Summary. They turned out to be as estimated earlier,

    IMT 5.6 __ MAX 14.5 __ MIN --6.6 __ PRC 108% __ SUN 90%
    and the bonus scoring was discussed in an earlier post.

    So here are the final scores for December. The forecasts appear (once more) below the scoring table.


    Scoring for December 2017

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _BONUS_snow___TOTAL


    NormaL ___________23 _ 17*_ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 90

    Jpmarn ___________25 _ 15*_ 14 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 86
    Tae laidir _________ 24 _ 12*_ 20 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 84
    Pauldry ___________23 _ 13*_ 13 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 79
    john mac__________15 _ 20 __06 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 ___ 3 ______ 73
    Sunflower3 ________24 _ 17*_ 02 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 ___ 3 ______ 69
    Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 18 _ 07*_ 20 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 04 ___ 3 _ 71-2=69

    Con Sensus _______ 19 _ 09*_ 14 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 66

    Kindred Spirit ______19 _ 11*_ 14 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 03 ___ 3 ______ 65
    MrSkinner _________22 _ 07*_ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 09 ___ 3 ______ 65
    JCXBXC___________ 17 _ 02*_ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 61
    200motels ___ (-4) _ 25 _ 03*_ 03 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 09 ___ 3 _ 58-4=54
    Dasa29 ___________19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 00 ___ 0 ______ 54
    Lumi _____________18 _ 02*_ 11 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 02 ___ 3 ______ 53
    waterways __ (-3) __ 17 _ 17*_ 06 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 04 ___ 0 _ 56-3=53
    M.T. Cranium ______ 14 _ 11*_ 16 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 02 ___ 0 ______ 53
    sdanseo __________ 19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 01 ___ 0 ______ 51
    mickger844posts ___ 20 _ 11*_ 00 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 05 ___ 3 ______ 51
    Rameire __________ 20 _ 01*_ 06 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 05 ___ 3 ______ 50
    Bsal _____________ 18 _ 01*_ 04 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 06 ___ 3 ______ 49
    Joe Public _________04 _ 05*_ 17 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 08 ___ 3 ______ 49
    DOCARCH _________20 _ 14*_ 00 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 01 ___ 3 ______ 47
    Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 19 _ 06*_ 14 _ 09 _ 04 ___ 04 ___ 0 _56-10=46
    sryanbruen ________19 _ 06*_ 05 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 07 ___ 0 ______ 43
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __07 _ 09*_ 00 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 00 ___ 0 _ 31-1=30
    ____________________________________________________________

    *Lower end and all but highest of MAX scores were too low for minimum progression, however, due to high score being 20/20, boosts were cut in half for those indicated.

    Congrats to JPmarn, Tae laidir and Pauldry who led the way, vanquished Con Sensus (along with several others) only to find NormaL at the finish line ahead of them this time. There's always something ...

    ... and as I have stayed up super-late to watch the U.S. storm and get this table posted, I will have to sleep for a while now before tackling the annual results, so look for those about 7 p.m. or later, I would imagine.


    The Forecasts for December 2017 ...


    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ DubA 25th _ snow

    mickger844posts ___ 6.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.1 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 9.0, --0.5 ___ No
    MrSkinner _________5.9 _ 15.9 _ --5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +1.8 ___ No
    Pauldry ___________5.8 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 097 _ 107 ___ 8.9, +2.3 ___ No
    Tae laidir _________ 5.7 _ 13.6 _ --6.6 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.9, +2.9 ___ No
    Jpmarn ___________5.6 _ 13.9 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___10.0, +2.5 ___ No
    200motels ___ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 12.6 _ --4.9 _ 082 _ 096 ___ 9.7, +2.8 ___ No
    Sunflower3 ________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 8.5, +1.0 ___ No

    NormaL ___________5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, +2.0 ___ No

    DOCARCH _________5.1 _ 13.8 _ --4.6 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 4.2, --1.2 ___ No
    Rameire __________ 5.1 _ 11.4 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 7.0, +2.0 ___ No
    Kindred Spirit ______5.0 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7.4, --1.0 ___ No
    sryanbruen ________5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 7.9, +1.4 ___ Y, Bal'hse
    Rikand ___ (-10) ___ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, _0.0 ___ Y, MtDillon

    Con Sensus _______ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No

    sdanseo __________ 5.0 _ 11.9 _ --6.0 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 5.1, --2.8 ___ Y, Finner
    Dasa29 ___________5.0 _ 11.5 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4.0, --2.5 ___ Y, Mull'gar
    Dacogawa __ (-2) __ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ --6.6 _ 101 _ 112 ___ 7.9, --0.5 ___ No
    Lumi _____________4.9 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 7.5, --2.0 ___ No
    Bsal _____________ 4.9 _ 11.5 _ --5.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 8.0, +1.0 ___ No
    waterways __ (-3) __ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 085 _ 117 ___ 6.5, +2.5 ___ Y, Knock
    JCXBXC___________ 4.8 _ 12.2 _ --6.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 9.8, +4.6 ___ No
    john mac__________ 4.6 _ 14.5 _ --5.2 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 9.0, +1.5 ___ No
    M.T. Cranium ______ 4.5 _ 13.5 _ --7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 7.0, --1.5 ___ Y, Knock
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-1) __3.8 _ 13.3 _--11.0_ 090 _ 110 ___ 3.7, --2.3 ___ Y, DubA
    Joe Public _________ 3.5 _ 12.9 _ --6.9 _ 087 _ 119 ___ 8.9, +1.0 ___ No


  • Registered Users Posts: 391 ✭✭mrskinner


    PAULDRY......congratulations.


    I think you are the winner of 2017 contest.

    Have your speech ready!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final Annual scoring report for 2017

    rank_best 10_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT_NOV_DEC __ TOTAL

    01 _ 701 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 _ 91 _ 66 ___ 821 ( 1)


    01 _ 700 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 71 _ 79 ___ 816 ( 1)

    02t_ 687 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 _ 77 _ 65 ___ 778 ( 4)
    02t_ 687 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 _ 71 _ 84 ___ 782 ( 3)
    04 _ 684 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 _ 67 _ 51 ___ 789 ( 2)
    05 _ 680 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 _ 80 _ 69 ___ 726 ( 9)

    06 _ 666 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 _ 78 _ 73 ___ 768 ( 5)

    07 _ 661 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 745 ( 9)

    07 _ 660 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 _ 76 _ 49 ___ 758 ( 7)
    08 _ 659 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 _ 72 _ 47 ___ 753 ( 8)
    09 _ 657 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 _ 78 _ 50 ___ 759 ( 6)
    10 _ 646 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 _ 61 _ 53 ___ 646 (20)

    11 _ 640 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 _ 79 _ 54 ___ 709 (12)
    12 _ 637 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 _ 76 _ 69 ___ 725 (10)
    13 _ 627 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 715 (11)
    14 _ 613 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 _ 70 _ 54 ___ 707 (13)
    15 _ 612 __ M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 _ 79 _ 53 ___ 688 (16)
    16 _ 611 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 _ 61 _ 43 ___ 693 (t14)
    17 _ 609 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 _ 42 _ 86 ___ 673 (17)
    18 _ 607 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 _ 75 _ 46 ___ 693 (t14)
    19 _ 606 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 53 ___ 667 (18)
    21 _ 571 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 651 (19)

    20 _ 603 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 _ 89 _ 61 ___ 603 (21)

    xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 81 _ 51 ___ 296
    xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 61 ___ 231
    xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 _ 72 _ --- ___ 118
    xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 70 _ --- ___ 117
    xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
    xxx Western Storm ________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 89 _ --- ____89
    xxx Rougies _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 83 _ --- ____83
    xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74
    xxx BLIZZARD7 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 31 ____31


    =================================================
    =================================================

    Notes:

    1. To get the best 10 of 12 scores, the low scores in italics were dropped. For those forecasters with 11 entries, one low score was dropped. For Lumi who had 10 entries, no scores were dropped. Sryanbruen and Rikand had tied values for second lowest so there are three scores indicated, but only two were dropped for best ten.

    2. The table is in order of the best 10 of 12 scoring; this determines the "Boards Award" and this year's winner is Pauldry with 700 points -- congratulations. MrSkinner and Tae laidir tied for second at 687 , just ahead of mickger844posts in fourth with 684 and Dacogawa fifth at 680. Con Sensus actually had the highest total of 701.

    3. The total score for all contests entered is at the end of the row with a ranking in brackets, and this determines the "M.T. Cranium Award" which means you get me as a house guest for the next year, and that winner (?) is also Pauldry with 816. I like my eggs scrambled. Oh wait, Con Sensus was the actual winner with 821 points, perhaps Con has a spare room. (The real winner is Pauldry, Con may not run off with any of our trophies.) In this category, second was mickger844posts with 789 and third was Tae laidir at 782. MrSkinner was fourth at 778 and John mac fifth at 768.

    4. The highest score for any contest was 91 for Con Sensus in November, then 90, shared by Dacogawa (July) and NormaL (December), 89 for Western Storm in November, and 87 for Joe Public in May. Monthly high scores appear in bold in the table. If Con Sensus or NormaL achieve those, an actual forecaster with high score is then also shown in bold.

    5. The highest minimum score also went to Pauldry, whose worst effort was 56. That explains 2 and 3 above.

    6. Ranks of Con Sensus and NormaL are derived from relative positions to actual forecasters, and do not include each other's rankings, nor do they bump anyone below them down in rankings. NormaL would finish two ranks lower if Con Sensus was counted as a ranked forecaster.

    I hope you all enjoyed participating in the 2017 forecast contest year, and best of luck in 2018.


  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭sunflower3


    Well done Pauldry - very consistent scores throughout the year - hope you have the kettle on for MT...:D:D:D

    Its a great competition - I look forward to it every month! Thanks to organisers and participants....

    Roll on 2018 - Lets beat Con..... and Norma of course!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If ten of us conspired to do really badly, we could bring Con back down to earth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,023 ✭✭✭pauldry


    SPEECH

    Im humbled by all of you who share in this wonderful little competition.

    I never thought Id ever win it and was surprised to see previous years that I had entered nearly all doing miserably.

    Dont know what I did any different this year.

    Maybe MT does.

    Im meant to get a kettle for my birthday on January 10th so Ill make MT a brew then and post to Canada.

    As well as the great MT Id like to thank all you guys who have made me as knowledgable as I am about weather by reading boards every single day from IMTs to high gusts and the Snowlercoaster.

    Id also finally like to thank the weather for obeying me when I told it to be a certain way over the past 12 months.

    Im off to celebrate with a milk and a biscuit.

    Its a weekday!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,781 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    If ten of us conspired to do really badly, we could bring Con back down to earth.

    Agreed! I need support in my quest :~)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Thanks again to MT for hosting this contest and calculating all of the scores. Must be a decent chunk of time required in the background.

    Will endeavour for a perfect score of contributions this year, although can't guarantee the quality! Was surprised being a relative weather newb that my average even made it to 59/100 over the limited goes in 2017.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,466 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    You're on my radar, expecting a good showing in 2018. We do have a saying here, "the first shall be last," and if you check out the scores from 2012 to 2017 you'll see where we got that (actually it was somewhere else). ;)


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