Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yes, but even looking at the totals in the more snow-prone areas, they're a pittance at low levels and only 1-2 cm on higher ground.

Yea- i suppose, the deeps are still high and it's just a showery setup- but we will see. I reckon places in the Midlands will get a good few inches by sunrise Friday.

JCX BXC

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Lads ye forgot about CFN

You'd be surprised, I've often seen CFN getting temperatures miles higher than nearby areas during the winter! Its in quite an exposed location!

ninebeanrows

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Lads ye forgot about CFN

How many flights out of EIDL daily?

Rain, ice pellets and if youre lucky some SLEET for CFN.

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

How many flights out of EIDL daily?

Two to Dublin I think
One at 235 pm Friday

Gaoth Laidir

CFN (Donegal Airport) is right on the coast so I'd expect sleet at best. Sligo may have a better chance, but no scheduled service from there anyway.

pilly

JCX BXC wrote:

SHOULD I DRIVE WITH MY DOG FROM CORK TO LETTERMEN THE LEAVING AT 4:15AM SATURDAY MORNING OR WILL A SNOWMAN BLOCK THR ROAD SOMEWERE AROUND GALWAY

Having a bad day?

Donegal Storm

CFN has 4 flights I think, two to Dublin and two to Glasgow, I'd be surprised if flights aren't cancelled anyway with the wind, I've flown GLA-CFN in a storm before and it's not much fun!

And it'll be hail on the coast, I grew up not far from the airport and it's all we ever got from these setups

JCX BXC

Donegal Storm wrote: »

CFN has 4 flights I think, two to Dublin and two to Glasgow, I'd be surprised if flights aren't cancelled anyway with the wind, I've flown GLA-CFN in a storm before and it's not much fun!

And it'll be hail on the coast, I grew up not far from the airport and it's all we ever got from these setups

It's 3x weekly to Glasgow, not 2x daily!

In Donegal there's 2 flights on Thursday and 3 flights on Friday.

Anyway miles off point at this stage!

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

Would there be enough precipitation around Belfast?

Heh, don't make the mistake of equating Belfast International with Belfast weather

Meteorite58

pilly wrote: »

Having a bad day?

Mod Note: Off Topic.

Keep on topic.

Thanks

hoody

Donegal Storm wrote: »

CFN has 4 flights I think, two to Dublin and two to Glasgow, I'd be surprised if flights aren't cancelled anyway with the wind, I've flown GLA-CFN in a storm before and it's not much fun!

And it'll be hail on the coast, I grew up not far from the airport and it's all we ever got from these setups

...hate to ask one of those questions but supposed to fly Dublin to Glasgow and back on Thursday, are cancellations likely at Glasgow for the day?

Would much prefer to stay near home (Loughrea) and hopefully see a few flakes
!

MJohnston

hoody wrote: »

...hate to ask one of those questions but supposed to fly Dublin to Glasgow and back on Thursday, are cancellations likely at Glasgow for the day?

Would much prefer to stay near home (Loughrea) and hopefully see a few flakes
!

Very unlikely due to snow, Scottish highlands will shadow Glasgow from any precipitation on Thursday, by the looks of it. What you might want to watch out for is delays due to wind speeds, gusts in particular. It looks unlikely at the minute to suffer anything particularly bad, but that's the only thing likely to cause any delays, imo.

Meteorite58

From the Met Office

MJohnston

Meteorite58 wrote: »

From the Met Office

It's always hard to tell whether they're cutting off those warning zones over Ireland because it's not their jurisdiction, or because they're actually predicting it'll be like that.

JCX BXC

hoody wrote: »

...hate to ask one of those questions but supposed to fly Dublin to Glasgow and back on Thursday, are cancellations likely at Glasgow for the day?

Would much prefer to stay near home (Loughrea) and hopefully see a few flakes
!

It's very hard to tell, however Wednesday evening I'd take a look at the TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) for Glasgow airport, you can google yourself and get a decoded version, or just send over a PM and I'll do it for ya.

JCX BXC

MJohnston wrote: »

It's always hard to tell whether they're cutting off those warning zones over Ireland because it's not their jurisdiction, or because they're actually predicting it'll be like that.

It's the former, winds down the west coast look stronger than down the east coast!

Meteorite58

MJohnston wrote: »

It's always hard to tell whether they're cutting off those warning zones over Ireland because it's not their jurisdiction, or because they're actually predicting it'll be like that.

I think being not their jurisdiction more than likely.

MJohnston

Meteorite58 wrote: »

I think being not their jurisdiction more than likely.

That was my assumption anyway, it's just the way they have it partly covering the east coast is odd.

I wonder why they grey out the Isle of Man, incidentally. Do they have their own meteorological service?

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's the former, winds down the west coast look stronger than down the east coast!

I think that particular map is indicating the Snow and Ice warning areas, not winds.

JCX BXC

MJohnston wrote: »

I think that particular map is indicating the Snow and Ice warning areas, not winds.

You're correct, and I think it's bed time for me!

Meteorite58

Latest upper Temperatures from the ARPEGE

pauldry

I live in Sligo town

I expect hail sleet n snow mixture Thursday night and white on Friday morning.

Then some rain in the showers after 10am on Friday as well as hail and sleet

By Friday evening some residual hailstones in my back garden

Frost on Friday night will mean very little more will melt

All gone Saturday then more Heavy rain Sunday

Meteorite58

Just a rough guide I would imagine.

squarecircles

Interesting thoughts from MT

basically expect a very gusty wind accompanied by bands of wintry showers some of which could drop heavy snow, the thicknesses fall very fast on Thursday indicating two things, wind gust potential above just the normal "geostrophic wind" which is itself quite strong, and freezing level falling to near sea level.

Bands will of course try to find a path of least resistance meaning that one may set up from Donegal Bay through lower terrain in Leitrim and Sligo into the midlands. Another likely band location would be through central NI into Louth and out towards northwest Wales. A third band could be expected to hit the gap between Antrim and southwest Scotland heading towards the north end of the Isle of Man.

These bands could easily produce thunder-sleet, snow, hail or various wintry mixes

Meteorite58

Graphic from ICON ties in nicely with the forecast from Met Eireann

'Saturday night will be very cold at first, with frost, mainly in the midlands, east and north. A spell of persistent and heavy rain will move in from the Atlantic, extending gradually eastwards, turning to sleet and possibly snow in places for a time, especially over high ground and possibly at lower levels in the north and northwest. However, temperatures will rise later, in freshening southerly winds.'

The Nutty M

I'm in Shetland until Tuesday and we are expecting nearly a ft of snow on Thursday night/Friday morning with 14metre swells. Most of the West of Shetland and East of Shetland flotels are coming in to safety for 5-7 days until the swells die down.
All in all it's going to be interesting.:D

Kermit.de.frog

Going to have to watch this "slider" low on Sunday as it pushes fronts up against the cold air. Literally 100 miles in it now and that gap is narrowing for Ireland.





We need things just a tad west here and we are in play.

As for Thursday/Friday - I am very optimistic quite a few of us will see settling snow through Thursday night. How far south and east, it will be a "nowcast". Expect surprises

Strangegravy

There will definitely be some lampost watching done early Friday a.m, whatever happens. 😊

Gaoth Laidir

ECM snow depth forecast for 6 pm Friday, showing a few cms on high ground and a dusting through the midlands. The COSMO forecast below shows much less. These are run with a water equivalent ratio of 10:1, but in this setup I would imagine more like 5:1 will be more accurate. Somewhere between the two models will probably turn out to be the case.

ECM



COSMO

Kermit.de.frog

That is way too pessimistic. We are relying on sea temps and wind strength here. I expect some heavy showers will get in to the midlands and east (though lighter here). Just one will leave a gentle covering on ground at or below freezing. A pretty good chance of waking to at least a dusting on Friday for most.