Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

BLIZZARD7

Il start by saying - These charts are usually highly inaccurate, especially at this range, but if there's any decent shift SW of this slider on the GFS now, Ireland will look more like Wales/England on the second chart... I'm guessing the North will get something regardless. UKMO is close to the GFS scenario - the ECM not so much.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That is way too pessimistic. We are relying on sea temps and wind strength here. I expect some heavy showers will get in to the midlands and east (though lighter here). Just one will leave a gentle covering on ground at or below freezing. A pretty good chance of waking to at least a dusting on Friday for most.

The EURO4 is showing a lot more snow depth by 6 am Friday while the Dutch Hirlam shows very little. Take your pick.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That is way too pessimistic. We are relying on sea temps and wind strength here. I expect some heavy showers will get in to the midlands and east (though lighter here). Just one will leave a gentle covering on ground at or below freezing. A pretty good chance of waking to at least a dusting on Friday for most.

The problem is that the ground temperature will be relatively high after the past few days' rain and today's mildness. Had we been in a few days of hard frost now then I'd be a lot more optimistic. That strong wind will prevent much frost from developing before the showers arrive overnight tonight/into tomorrow.

George Sunsnow

I think most people in the mentioned areas will see snow falling along with sleet hail and rain but mostly snow at the peak of this
It’s a small window of 18 hours or so

Settling depends on how heavy or prolonged your showers are or whether you are under a shower train
The strong winds will dry out the ground some

BLIZZARD7

Surely not :eek: Big shift South West for that slider on the 06z GFS!

squarecircles

Snow widely across the west sunday on the latest gfs06z BRING IT ON i say.

I was hoping this low would correct southwards.

George Sunsnow

Caution on that now please!
It’s wenesday
A better model the ECM has a hard time knowing Sunday’s what’s happening Thursday’s
We wouldn’t want disappointment

Strangegravy

Sunday snow on the GFS is very marginal at the moment, could just be a lot of very cold rain!

Worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn't be stocking up on carrots for snowmen just yet. 😊

Larbre34

I agree, it certainly could be quite a low snow line and an absolute pasting on higher ground but the formula for widespread snow isn't locked in at all.

cherryghost

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Caution on that now please!
It’s wenesday
A better model the ECM has a hard time knowing Sunday’s what’s happening Thursday’s
We wouldn’t want disappointment

I think all users should always be in the mindset of 'expect disappointment' but the hype train is too strong in this case

George Sunsnow

Larbre34 wrote: »

I agree, it certainly could be quite a low snow line and an absolute pasting on higher ground but the formula for widespread snow isn't locked in at all.

And it won’t be locked in Sunday
Fact
So forget about that folks

Unless you’re above 250 meters and probably 300 metres

BLIZZARD7

This Sunday slider reminds me of a milder version of the Mid January 2013 spell - that delivered heavy snow to higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin. Now there are some pretty important differences, back then we had a more prominent ridge to our north, we also dragged in -7/-8c upper temps briefly. The main similarity is the low pressure diving across the Atlantic to our south/south west. It's a balancing act and one fraught with problems but on occasion it can deliver heavy snow, even to those at lowish elevations. The other thing with this was that the models handled it badly in the lead up and didn't get the track of the lows right til within +72hrs.



Another one I vividly remember was the 3rd/4th of January 2008 - again then there was actually a scandi high in place, however uppers were only about -4c. The sliding low was the key feature. This delivered the biggest snowfall for years in Eastern Northern Ireland, 1 foot + was recorded and it fell in about 12 hours. I remember this so well because it was 3c and lashing rain in Dublin... But that's why these situations can be very exciting, some of the country's heaviest snowfalls have come from marginal situations. They are also a forecasters nightmare.







An account of that night -

http://www.peterduncanson.net/snow/snow00.html

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

And it won’t be locked in Sunday
Fact
So forget about that folks

Unless you’re above 250 meters and probably 300 metres

Theses sliders rarely work out for the most of this island. I can't see how it will be cold enough. When was the last time we had a nationwide snow event from such a scenario?

BLIZZARD7

munsterlegend wrote: »

Theses sliders rarely work out for the most of this island. I can't see how it will be cold enough. When was the last time we had a nationwide snow event from such a scenario?

Almost Nationwide - probably December 1981/January 82. There might be a more recent example though.

George Sunsnow

Jan 82 dragged in a super cold easterly feed
A northwesterly like this one or Atlantic northerly wouldn’t even be trotting after it

There’s an awful lot of absolute Rubbish posted on UK fora by people with high post counts but delusion filled fed by other delusion filled so called experts
Please I hope that doesn’t permeate here

Do you know what the important thing to note here is,and I’ve said it before,it’s not that we’ll have rain Sunday it the overall NH profile at present,that lows are sliding and that if that continues ,as winter goes on the air feed will be cold enough at times from the Right source to give us proper snow

Gonzo

munsterlegend wrote: »

Theses sliders rarely work out for the most of this island. I can't see how it will be cold enough. When was the last time we had a nationwide snow event from such a scenario?

yep I reckon 1982 was the last time this happened for the republic and it was much colder back then compared to what's forecasted for this Sunday! I see nothing more than cold rain for most us and lying snow for the mountains, unless a miracle happens. This Sunday is forecasted to be 6-9C across the country, along way from lowland lying snow.

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Jan 82 dragged in a super cold easterly feed
A northwesterly like this one or Atlantic northerly wouldn’t even be trotting after it

There’s an awful lot of absolute Rubbish posted on UK fora by people with high post counts but delusion filled fed by other delusion filled so called experts
Please I hope that doesn’t permeate here

Do you know what the important thing to note here is,and I’ve said it before,it’s not that we’ll have rain Sunday it the overall NH profile at present,that lows are sliding and that if that continues ,as winter goes on the air feed will be cold enough at times from the Right source to give us proper snow

The UK can be in a much better position than us usually especially from the midlands north. I read the U.K. Forums more for the pattern than the actual weather.

snowstorm445

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

This Sunday slider reminds me of a milder version of the Mid January 2013 spell - that delivered heavy snow to higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin. Now there are some pretty important differences, back then we had a more prominent ridge to our north, we also dragged in -7/-8c upper temps briefly. The main similarity is the low pressure diving across the Atlantic to our south/south west. It's a balancing act and one fraught with problems but on occasion it can deliver heavy snow, even to those at lowish elevations. The other thing with this was that the models handled it badly in the lead up and didn't get the track of the lows right til within +72hrs.



Another one I vividly remember was the 3rd/4th of January 2008 - again then there was actually a scandi high in place, however uppers were only about -4c. The sliding low was the key feature. This delivered the biggest snowfall for years in Eastern Northern Ireland, 1 foot + was recorded and it fell in about 12 hours. I remember this so well because it was 3c and lashing rain in Dublin... But that's why these situations can be very exciting, some of the country's heaviest snowfalls have come from marginal situations. They are also a forecasters nightmare.







An account of that night -

http://www.peterduncanson.net/snow/snow00.html

I remember that second spell well. Was in Drogheda at the time and between 6 pm and 4 am well over half a foot of snow fell, it was magical. Had to be in Dublin Airport early that morning and there wasn’t even a dusting down there, people looked fairly shocked to see our snow covered car.

squarecircles

Ahhh the usual old begrudging desire to downplay snow potential in the west of Ireland.

Of course if the same potential was there for the m50 we'd be burried under charts and people would have run away with themselves by now.

Anyways the latest from met eireann

Thursday will be a cold,bright,windy day.
showers will turn Increasingly wintery in the afternoon and evening with snow accumulations possible,north and north west most at risk but a dusting could occur in other parts

average_runner

squarecircles wrote: »

Ahhh the usual old begrudging desire to downplay snow potential in the west of Ireland.

Of course if the same potential was there for the m50 we'd be burried under charts and people would have run away with themselves by now.

Well then post up charts, no one stopping you?

Obviously when Dublin get hits there is more reaction because it has the highest population

munsterlegend

squarecircles wrote: »

Ahhh the usual old begrudging desire to downplay snow potential in the west of Ireland.

Of course if the same potential was there for the m50 we'd be burried under charts and people would have run away with themselves by now.

There is snow potential for Thursday/Friday but everybody is just being realistic from then on.

JCX BXC

Met Eireann warning issued :

Met Eireann wrote:

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Scattered snow showers will occur later Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday. Slight to moderate accumulations are possible with up to 3cm in parts. Icy stretches too. North and northwest counties will be most at risk, as well as higher ground elsewhere.

Issued:Wednesday 06 December 2017 11:00
Valid:Thursday 07 December 2017 16:00 to Friday 08 December 2017 16:00

squarecircles

SNOW & ICE WARNING issued by met eireann.

Accumulations up to 3 cm possible in north and northwest.

Gonzo

munsterlegend wrote: »

There is snow potential for Thursday/Friday but everybody is just being realistic from then on.

Yep, we are being realistic. No point telling everyone that there is going to be widespread snow on Sunday with temps above 5 or 6C nationwide, creating a panic.

Even today I have already noticed a slight panic in my local supermarket here in Dunshaughlin. I could overhear locals talking about heavy snowfalls tomorrow and are bulk buying encase we get snowed in....The mere mention of the word 'snow' on the Met Eireann forecast and locals have scenes similar to 2010 already stuck in their minds. it takes so little to create a panic or over the top excitement so I feel it is best that we are being as realistic as possible here.

If there was a serious threat of widespread snow and disruption this Sunday we would all be on that here taking the risk very seriously so that people know what to expect.

Right now as it stands, there is a risk of hail, sleet and snow later tomorrow, Thursday night and early Friday then slightly milder for the weekend.

Western and northern parts most at risk from showers where they may fall as sleet or snow, as always highest ground most at risk.

There is always the chance of a light dusting anywhere first thing Friday morning and there is bound to be plenty of frost and possible black ice on some roads, so driving conditions could still be tricky in some locations.

JCX BXC

squarecircles wrote: »

SNOW & ICE WARNING issued by met eireann.

Accumulations up to 3 cm possible in north and northwest.

Right above you

Larbre34

As well as higher ground elsewhere

There you have it, a bitter feel everywhere but no major disruption in the larger cities, probably just enough of a few flurries to be festive. Ideal.

snowstorm445

Some good news, the Euro 4 model has snow falling across the country from Thursday into Friday, with the heaviest being across Ulster and the Midlands. Snowfall accumulation at the end even reaches down to Dublin. This is at 48hrs our mind.

Snowbiee21

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Some good news, the Euro 4 model has snow falling across the country from Thursday into Friday, with the heaviest being across Ulster and the Midlands. Snowfall accumulation at the end even reaches down to Dublin. This is at 48hrs our mind.

DUBLIN😅

munsterlegend

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Some good news, the Euro 4 model has snow falling across the country from Thursday into Friday, with the heaviest being across Ulster and the Midlands. Snowfall accumulation at the end even reaches down to Dublin. This is at 48hrs our mind.

Not much for Munster going on those charts. We usually do ok from a northwesterly and it can be hard to predict shower activity!

sdanseo

The 120hrs ECM is something I've never seen before. 3 distinct lows over UK & Ireland



GFS at +108