Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

sryanbruen

For Ireland, I don't think so.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/938408702192873473

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

For Ireland, I don't think so.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/938408702192873473

could be some very hard to watch scenes for us from central and northern England and much of Scotland during the weekend and Monday.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

could be some very hard to watch scenes for us from central and northern England and much of Scotland during the weekend and Monday.

I've been there before lots of times so it can't hurt any worse this time, especially when we here in the southeast had heavy rain on 21st/22nd March 2013 and hearing Northern Ireland having blizzards .

arctictree

06z GFS showing 12 hours of snow at t+96 for a large part of the country for 12 hours:



We'll see what he next one brings. Interesting development.

squarecircles

arctictree wrote: »

06z GFS showing 12 hours of snow at t+96 for a large part of the country for 12 hours:



We'll see what he next one brings. Interesting development.

Spotted that this morning,Alot of Mayo getting some white gold on that chart with temperatures hovering around 1 degree as the low has moved further southwest allowing the cold overnight conditions to remain somewhat through the day,again it's unlikely to happen,one must show restraint, interesting what the 12z will show

Gonzo

STATUS YELLOW

In line with Met Eireann's yellow warning for snow and ice, we have a Level 1 Weather Alert for snow and ice valid for Thursday 7th December and Friday 8th December. This alert covers the entire country with the North and North-West of Ireland most at risk, caution is advised anywhere in Ireland where there is Ice and snow.

MET EIREANN
Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Scattered snow showers will occur later Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday. Slight to moderate accumulations are possible with up to 3cm in parts. Icy stretches too. North and northwest counties will be most at risk, as well as higher ground elsewhere.

Issued:Wednesday 06 December 2017 11:00
Valid:Thursday 07 December 2017 16:00 to Friday 08 December 2017 16:00

ninebeanrows

12z GFS would have few cm on the decks in Dublin on Friday AM- time for a snow dance.

sdanseo

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z GFS would have few cm on the decks in Dublin on Friday AM- time for a snow dance.

WRF backing that up, keeps the eastern half of the country at freezing or below from +40 through to +72 and presumably further after (forecast stops at 72hrs). Doesn't seem to handle the precipitation very well but anything it does show falling is mostly as snow.

HIRLAM (used by Met) @ +33


And is it me or has the UKMO gone mad altogether at +48 or so, I think a few incorrect charts in the mix there?

MJohnston

sdanseo wrote: »

WRF backing that up, keeps the eastern half of the country at freezing or below from +40 through to +72 and presumably further after (forecast stops at 72hrs). Doesn't seem to handle the precipitation very well but anything it does show falling is mostly as snow.

HIRLAM (used by Met) @ +33


And is it me or has the UKMO gone mad altogether at +48 or so, I think a few incorrect charts in the mix there?

On Meteociel.fr the UKMO is fecked, it's showing charts from October

Meteorite58

WRF-NMM ( usually not bad ) showing a fair whack of snow even early in the night. ARPEGE and AROME totally at odds with this, show temps not as cold and very little snow. HIRLAM is showing some snowfall.

downwiththatsor

Euro4 just out just shows snow in Northeastern third by Friday at 12

sryanbruen

UKMO have issued a level 3 cold warning for England.

pauldry

Sligo town looks like being missed in those charts

So met will say snow in the NW but parts of the NW will escape with none!!!

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

I've been there before lots of times so it can't hurt any worse this time, especially when we here in the southeast had heavy rain on 21st/22nd March 2013 and hearing Northern Ireland having blizzards .

I felt your pain that day. I was playing football in the cold rain, which sometimes turned to sleet, but would it hell turn to snow. It was so annoying

UsedToWait

Anyone care to give a nationwide forecast for tomorrow, in light of the latest runs, for those of us who don't read charts?

Captain Snow

UsedToWait wrote: »

Anyone care to give a nationwide forecast for tomorrow, in light of the latest runs, for those of us who don't read charts?

For some parts over the Next 3 days and maybe into the New Year.....:D

George Sunsnow

UsedToWait wrote: »

Anyone care to give a nationwide forecast for tomorrow, in light of the latest runs, for those of us who don't read charts?

I’ll give it a go
It’s as you were really
Snow showers increasingly from Thursday afternoon in the west northwest and southwest and Ulster and north Leinster
Some of these getting through to other areas in the midlands east and cork city

An inch or three where in the favored areas you get under a shower train
One could set up into Sligo mayo somewhere for example drifting across into Cavan Monaghan Armagh Louth Meath
But that’ll be a now cast situation looking at the radar
There will of course be rain and sleet too on coasts especially as the showers first hit land

Saturday very cold but much dryer
Sunday is unknown as a low tracks either over or to the south of Ireland
Keep a watch
The further south it tracks the bigger likelihood of some snow on its northern edge especially well inland and on hills
Less so if it tracks directly over

UsedToWait

^ Appreciated.

BBC News channel forecaster seemed to think Sunday might be a big event, but didn't really extrapolate..

Mech1

Many thanks Kermit for the heads up on this.

Gaoth Laidir

Knock TAF up to 6 pm tomorrow. Sleet showers from 2 pm, with a slight chance of snow showers from 3 pm.


TAF EIKN 061700Z 0618/0718 20020G32KT 5000 -RADZ BKN004
TEMPO 0618/0620 21023G37KT 1500 RADZ BKN002
TEMPO 0620/0701 0500 FG RADZ BKN001
BECMG 0621/0623 23020G32KT
BECMG 0623/0701 33022G35KT 9999 BKN010 BECMG 0701/0703 30017G27KT NSW FEW015 BKN025
TEMPO 0709/0718 29020G32KT
TEMPO 0709/0714 5000 SHRA SCT012 SCT018CB
TEMPO 0714/0718 3000 SHRASN BKN010 SCT018CB
PROB30 TEMPO 0715/0718 2000 SHSN BKN005=

Belfast Aldergrove chance of sleet or graupel showers from 2 pm.

TAF AMD EGAA 061942Z 0619/0718 19015KT 9999 BKN008
TEMPO 0619/0703 20020G30KT 5000 RA -RADZ
PROB40 TEMPO 0619/0703 SCT008 BKN018
BECMG 0702/0704 29020G35KT SCT025
TEMPO 0707/0718 5000 SHRA
BECMG 0712/0715 28015G25KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0714/0718 4000 SHRASN SHGS SCT005 BKN010CB=

No mention of snow at Dublin, Shannon or Cork up to that time.

davidsr20

Our 2 dreaded words slight and sleet lol. I’m surprised this tread isn’t gone mad like years ago

nacho libre

The BBC weather precipitation chart is showing lots of snow over the north west of Ireland from Thursday afternoon onwards into Friday, also the snow gets well inland too- even making it to the east coast. The slider low on Sunday makes it too far north though according to their charts , so most of the country will have rain rather than snow, except for the north of the country.
We can only hope the front is corrected southwards in the coming days, which these slider fronts sometimes have a tendency to do.

Pangea

The Met office graphics has snow over Ulster and North Leinster for Sunday



Heres the full 10 day forecast, mentions another battleground situation next week too.
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155395931839209/

Gaoth Laidir

nacho libre wrote: »

The BBC weather precipitation chart is showing lots of snow over the north west of Ireland from Thursday afternoon onwards into Friday, also the snow gets well inland too- even making it to the east coast. The slider low on Sunday makes it too far north though accord to their charts , so most of the country will have rain rather than snow, except for the north of the country.
We can only hope the front is corrected southwards in the coming days, which these slider fronts sometimes have a tendency to do.

They'll be using the Euro4, which is by far the most bullish of all models with precip totals over the next couple of days. It has over 40 mm liquid equivalent down as far south as the midlands and midwest, which seems well ott.

Reckless Abandonment

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

They'll be using the Euro4, which is by far the most bullish of all models with precip totals over the next couple of days. It has over 40 mm liquid equivalent down as far south as the midlands and midwest, which seems well ott.

As good as the Euro4 is I'd expect it to change in the morning.

George Sunsnow

Pangea wrote: »

The Met office graphics has snow over Ulster and North Leinster for Sunday



Heres the full 10 day forecast, mentions another battleground situation next week too.
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155395931839209/

If that’s what transpires,the graphics on that map in practice would exclude lowland ares unless 10’s of miles inland,exclude coastal area and prefer high ground
But even their thinking is definitely not nailed because chaos is trumping minutiae too much for models lately
A 100 miles this way or that would make an awful difference
Sunday however would not be a day for being up a mountain somewhere unless you want triple pneumonia

nacho libre

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

As good as the Euro4 is I'd expect it to change in the morning.

Why? Are you expecting warm sectors to wreck things given the circulation pattern?

Reckless Abandonment

nacho libre wrote: »

Why? Are you expecting warm sectors to wreck things given the circulation pattern?

The rain/snow totals and pattern will change.
Real knife edge stuff over the next few days. Can't wait.

Jobs OXO

What did the RTE lady say ?

Oscar Bravo

"Shafted"