Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

Captain Snow

This looks about right. There will be snow on high ground settling. A trip into the Wicklow mountains, or any high ground will get you your first snowman. Some sleet snow low ground. But very Icing. Its the First Great Start to Winter in long time.

ninebeanrows

The medium term isn't looking so interesting now on GFS and the UKM- but no doubt the EC will now produce a cold solution!

Certainly the initial low is looking more threatening - indeed this was picked up in the ensembles over the last few days with some very severe solutions offered.

Of course the deeper it goes the more modification of the initial cold incursion

catrat12

Will Dublin mountains see any snow?

Captain Snow

catrat12 wrote: »

Will Dublin mountains see any snow?

Yes they will. Lug, Kippure, parts of 2/3 Rock. Well into the Wicklow mountains.

uck51js9zml2yt

Captain Snow wrote: »

Yes they will. Lug, Kippure, parts of 2/3 Rock. Well into the Wicklow mountains.

More importantly, will Dublin itself have snow. Do I need to leave at 6 am to be in work for 9 ( 4 km)?

Reckless Abandonment

Marshall Greasy Selenium wrote: »

More importantly, will Dublin itself have snow. Do I need to leave at 6 am to be in work for 9 ( 4 km)?

I'd leave now to be safe..

ninebeanrows

Marshall Greasy Selenium wrote: »

More importantly, will Dublin itself have snow. Do I need to leave at 6 am to be in work for 9 ( 4 km)?

There is the risk of a dusting of snow for Dublin on Friday morning, from a rogue shower drifting across from the west.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Strong North westerly winds will set in Wednesday night with the snow line well South of Ireland Thursday and Friday so It's going to be bitterly cold for those two days as well as Saturday this is according to the Six One Weather. In the North westerely air flow it's looking more like the North, Donegal the Midlands will see some snow showers. I'm hopeing that some snow showers push far enough South Southeast as we haven't seen as much as a flake yet here in Tipperary. At this stage I would settle for freezing temperatures and a severe frost. It's the next best thing.

Gaoth Laidir

catrat12 wrote: »

Will Dublin mountains see any snow?

There'll be very little precipitation falling in the east to begin with, except maybe some backedge stuff high up on tomorrow night. Still, amounts will be small.

Cork Lass

Is it likely that we’ll get snow in Cork?

kod87

Cork Lass wrote: »

Is it likely that we’ll get snow in Cork?

No, I don't think so

Cork Lass

kod87 wrote: »

No, I don't think so

That’s disappointing

JCX BXC

Okay, here we go again:

WILL I GET SNOW IN MY BACK GARDEN?

Maybe, maybe not. We can't tell you where exactly the showers will be, however go by the forecasts already and by common sense, if you're in the West or North and on high ground, then probably yes. For every bit you go towards sea level, or go south/east, this dimishes a little. Cannot stress enough that nobody knows if a shower will happen to reach your exact location.


IS THIS LIKELY TO BE AS BAD AS 2010

No.


SHOULD I DRIVE WITH MY DOG FROM CORK TO LETTERKENNY LEAVING AT 4:15AM SATURDAY MORNING OR WILL A SNOWMAN BLOCK THE ROAD SOMEWHERE AROUND GALWAY

If you're thinking that will happen, maybe it's better you don't drive. Look, we can't vouch for your driving ability, how bad the conditions will be at any one time and whether you'll see snow on your journey or not, just pay attention to the forecasts yourself and see how confident you are. Again, nobody can tell you! Just remember simple things like drive relevant to the conditions at that time, be aware of things like a much increased breaking distance and be wary of others around you who won't change their driving style for love nor money (nor weather!)

I HATE/LOVE SNOW I HATE/LOVE SNOW I HATE/LOVE SNOW AND EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD HATE/LOVE IT TOO

That's great, however for the sake of everyone's sanity here don't get annoyed if someone's viewpoint doesn't match yours!

*INSERT PLACE* SNOW SHIELD IS ACTIVE AGAIN

Sshhhhhh.

A personal peeve of mine, there's very very few places of Ireland that get an unusually low amount of snow for its geographic location. Cork doesn't have a snowshield, it gets more snow than us, Waterford doesn't, Dublin doesn't! Just because it doesn't snow in your location every time, there's no shield, that's called climate!

NON-EVENT

Unless we get 16c and sunshine, shhhh for this one too.

WILL THIS COLD WEATHER AFFECT **** AIRPORT

Again, not a clue, however I'd like to point out that very few cold conditions stop operations at an airport completely (would want to be very very cold), so it would have to be snowing quite heavily and for an extended time, with it sticking, for it to make any difference. So basically Knock is the only airport I'd give a remote chance of being affected, and even this is very low in my opinion.


And remember, expect what you don't want and then you can't be disappointed!

George Sunsnow

Cork Lass wrote: »

That’s disappointing

You might get snow
I’d expect west cork to see some Rough
Rule of thumb is if you normally get showers in any other northwesterly,there’s no reason you won’t get them this time
Remember you are getting showers in off the Atlantic from your nearest sea point to your northwest
It’s a lot shorter land track than say from the Atlantic due south east to Dublin for example,an awful lot shorter
So I wouldn’t be surprised if cork city even got something from this

Meteorite58

Mod Note: There is a harsh and curt tone creeping into this thread. Please remain civil in your posts. Pay attention to the forum charter .

Note : 2. Everyone is entitled to post and has equal rights whether they are weather experts or complete newbies.
5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Thanks

Cork Lass

JCX BXC wrote: »

Okay, here we go again:

WILL I GET SNOW IN MY BACK GARDEN?

Maybe, maybe not. We can't tell you where exactly the showers will be, however go by the forecasts already and by common sense, if you're in the West or North and on high ground, then probably yes. For every bit you go towards sea level, or go south/east, this dimishes a little. Cannot stress enough that nobody knows if a shower will happen to reach your exact location.


IS THIS LIKELY TO BE AS BAD AS 2010

No.


SHOULD I DRIVE WITH MY DOG FROM CORK TO LETTERMEN THE LEAVING AT 4:15AM SATURDAY MORNING OR WILL A SNOWMAN BLOCK THR ROAD SOMEWERE AROUND GALWAY

If you're thinking that will happen, maybe it's better you don't drive. Look, we can't vouch for your driving ability, how bad the conditions will be at any one time and whether you'll see snow on your journey or not, just pay attention to the forecasts yourself and see how confident you are. Again, nobody can tell you! Just remember simple things like drive relevant to the conditions at that time, be aware of things like a much increased breaking distance and be wary of others around you who won't change their driving style for love nor money (nor weather!)

I HATE/LOVE SNOW I HATE/LOVE SNOW I HATE/LOVE SNOW AND EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD HATE/LOVE IT TOO

That's great, however for the sake of everyone's sanity here don't get annoyed if someone's viewpoint doesn't match yours!

*INSERT PLACE* SNOW SHIELD IS ACTIVE AGAIN

Sshhhhhh.

A personal peeve of mine, there's very very few places of Ireland that get an unusually low amount of snow for its geographic location. Cork doesn't have a snowshield, it gets more snow than us, Waterford doesn't, Dublin doesn't! Just because it doesn't snow in your location every time, there's no shield, that's called climate!

NON-EVENT

Unless we get 16c and sunshine, shhhh for this one too.

WILL THIS COLD WEATHER AFFECT **** AIRPORT

Again, not a clue, however I'd like to point out that very few cold conditions stop operations at an airport completely (would want to be very very cold), so it would have to be snowing quite heavily and for an extended time, with it sticking, for it to make any difference. So basically Knock is the only airport I'd give a remote chance of being affected, and even this is very low in my opinion.


And remember, expect what you don't want and then you can't be disappointed!

Jeez, I’m sorry I asked now.

JCX BXC

Cork Lass wrote: »

Jeez, I’m sorry I asked now.

Ah wasn't directed at you, don't take it personally!

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You might get snow
I’d expect west cork to see some Rough
Rule of thumb is if you normally get showers in any other northwesterly,there’s no reason you won’t get them this time
Remember you are getting showers in off the Atlantic from your nearest sea point to your northwest
It’s a lot shorter land track than say from the Atlantic due south east to Dublin for example,an awful lot shorter
So I wouldn’t be surprised if cork city even got something from this

We usually get plenty precipitation well inland in Cork from a north westerly. I think we'll definitely have a few snow showers overnight/early Friday morning but probably only a dusting at most on lower levels anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

WILL THIS COLD WEATHER AFFECT **** AIRPORT

Again, not a clue, however I'd like to point out that very few cold conditions stop operations at an airport completely (would want to be very very cold), so it would have to be snowing quite heavily and for an extended time, with it sticking, for it to make any difference. So basically Knock is the only airport I'd give a remote chance of being affected, and even this is very low in my opinion.


And remember, expect what you don't want and then you can't be disappointed!

I'd expect Aldergrove to be affected Thursday evening, maybe City airport too. Can't see any probems at Derry.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'd expect Aldergrove to be affected Thursday evening, maybe City airport too. Can't see any probems at Derry.

Would there be enough precipitation around Belfast? Granted I've been conveniently ignoring NI.

Also, even if Derry was affected there's few flights!

Cork Lass

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah wasn't directed at you, don't take it personally!

I’ve got the hump now.....is it likely to snow on that

NeonCookies

Gaoth Laidir wrote:

I'd expect Aldergrove to be affected Thursday evening, maybe City airport too. Can't see any probems at Derry.

Well, damn. Flying out from Aldergrove at 5pm on Thursday. Typical, whenever slightly interesting weather is forecast I never seem to be able to fully enjoy the build-up/event because I'm worried about some plan or other being effected. Oh well on the bright side, maybe I'll see some snow!

JCX BXC

Cork Lass wrote: »

I’ve got the hump now.....is it likely to snow on that

If it's high enough maybe

NeonCookies wrote: »

Well, damn. Flying out from Aldergrove at 5pm on Thursday. Typical, whenever slightly interesting weather is forecast I never seem to be able to fully enjoy the build-up/event because I'm worried about some plan or other being effected. Oh well on the bright side, maybe I'll see some snow!

They are showers, so it's quite possible that any delay won't be extended, or that there won't be any accumulations until later that evening! Don't be completely pessimistic! Although I wouldn't mind seeing the snow up there either

On an aside, a slightly confidence inspiring forecast on RTE just now, however Clare was conveniently left out of the wind warning!

Gaoth Laidir

The ECM and COSMO have remarkably similar (pawltry) total snow accumulations (up to 00Z Saturday), with the bulk of it falling in the North Channel. Isle of Man shadow working in reverse this time!

Meanwhile, the Canadian GEM has absolutely no hint of snow whatsoever, even on high ground. It's having a shocker on this.

ECM


COSMO


GEM

Donegal Storm

I'd actually say snow chances have been slightly upgraded this evening for a change, the wrap around warm sector Thursday is forecast to push through a lot quicker and the second one on Thursday night is no longer being forecast to develop. Still just a brief and not very interesting event for most of us but parts of inland Ulster might wake up to snow Friday morning

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Would there be enough precipitation around Belfast? Granted I've been conveniently ignoring NI.

Also, even if Derry was affected there's few flights!

No, not much, but there may be the odd heavy shower that could cause temporary minor disruption for deicing, etc.

Yes, I put Derry in there just to complete the trio. There is the Dublin flight still (I think?).

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The ECM and COSMO have remarkably similar (pawltry) total snow accumulations (up to 00Z Saturday), with the bulk of it falling in the North Channel. Isle of Man shadow working in reverse this time!

Meanwhile, the Canadian GEM has absolutely no hint of snow whatsoever, even on high ground. It's having a shocker on this.

ECM


COSMO


GEM

But we know from experience these models don't penetrate the showers far enough inland. We need to look at models like HARMONIE for this.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No, not much, but there may be the odd heavy shower that could cause temporary minor disruption for deicing, etc.

Yes, I put Derry in there just to complete the trio. There is the Dublin flight still (I think?).

Nope no Dublin flight, they've a 2x daily flight to Stansted and then a few token ryanair services.

Gaoth Laidir

Weathercheck wrote: »

But we know from experience these models don't penetrate the showers far enough inland. We need to look at models like HARMONIE for this.

Yes, but even looking at the totals in the more snow-prone areas, they're a pittance at low levels and only 1-2 cm on higher ground.

George Sunsnow

Lads ye forgot about CFN