Pyro's Horse Bets - Vol. 2

x PyRo

The Queen is back! :pac: It's almost 6 years since I lasted posted a bet here and in the mean time my punting has had loads of ups and downs - as was always the case sadly! The last couple of years in particular have been very mediocre (variance is a bitch, or at least that's who I'm blaming!!) but I've taken a few months off and look forward to an upswing coming along soon. The ROI is still positive, around +10%-ish.

I'll be back posting my bets for the next 6 months or so and said I may as well launch them up here as well! I do have some members of a private service who have to get the heads up 10-15 minutes before they're posted here but hopefully prices will hold up all right. Most of the winter betting will be framed around the All-Weather with about 20% of bets coming over jumps.

Dolphin Village is now 9/1 generally. 10/1 Stan James (good luck with that) & 11/1 SportingBet (even more good luck with that!). I'd still take a punt on him at 9's personally but it's on the borderline.

---

A couple of races on the All-Weather are of interest today and Towerlands Park will be the first play. Michael Bell's 4-year-old impressed last winter in winning his only two runs on the artificial surfaces, particularly when defying an opening handicap mark of 83 over 1m 3f at Kempton. The way he travelled throughout was most eye-catching and it'll take a good one to beat him if he can get back to the same level of form today. Since then, he has lined up twice, performing every bit as well when third behind Century Dream at Newbury in October before flopping in the November handicap (may have bounced). This is a drop in grade and with first-time cheekpieces on to hopefully help his case, I'm expecting a bold show off a mark of 91.

Dolphin Village could be worth chancing in the following race - and was actually third to Towerlands Park when he won that handicap at Kempton! He's a 7-year-old who went from being consistent to regressive and has only shown glimmers of his old form since joining up with Shaun Harris early this year, but gave some positive hints when eight at Yarmouth on his penultimate start - not getting the clearest of runs when trying to build up a head of steam before keeping on reasonably well along the rail. Soft ground in Class 4 company was against him at Catterick on his only start since and getting back onto the All-Weather might liven him up. One of his two runs at this track was encouraging as well, especially as it came over a trip that's too short, and with the hope of a revival coming along sometime soon 10/1+ is generous enough.

Wolverhampton:
7:45 - Towerlands Park - 1.50pts @ 7/2 (General)
8:15 - Dolphin Village - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)

x PyRo

Meh. Towerlands Park probably ridden a bit closer to the pace than was ideal but no complaints. Dolphin Village got backed into 7's and traded 5/2 before weakening. He'll pop up eventually so I'll keep an eye out.

No bets for Sunday.

ShamoBuc

Welcome back!

zimmermania

Best of luck,i like the way you are not afraid to back a few at decent prices and I also like the fact that you do not dismiss the AW as many punters do, suggesting (wrongly) that "anything can win on the AW".

x PyRo

One bet for Monday. Treaty Of Rome is next to useless on turf but has a liking for Southwell and in 11 runs here, he has 3 wins, 4 seconds and a third. Indeed, the only time he hasn't finished inside the first four at this track was three weeks ago when seventh over the minimum trip but the pace held up exceptionally well (as it often does over that C&D in particular) and making inroads into it from a long way back proved to be impossible. There were still some positives to take from the run and stepping up a furlong is a plus-point, especially with a solid early tempo being next to certain with the likes of Razin Hell, Tricky Dicky & Crosse Fire lining up. Derek Shaw's 5-year-old can travel really well when getting away on terms and I feel that he can win sooner rather than later 74. It will still take a career-best to win, of course, but 8/1 about that happening is acceptable and I'd have him a couple of points shorter. If he got a tracking position a few lengths off a strong gallop (as opposed to the likely sit in the rear third of the field!), I'd make him the outright favourite but whether the perfect scenario is forthcoming remains to be seen.

Southwell:
1:50 - Treaty Of Rome - 1pt @ 8/1 (General)

x PyRo

Treaty of Rome finished 3rd, solid effort - stayed on really well in the straight but got caught on the back foot early doors again. Should be popping up before long.

redzerdrog

Best of luck with the log! Will be following with interest! Love seeing these type of logs

x PyRo

Jim Goldie's All-Weather horses have been motoring along nicely in the past month, 4 winners and a further 8 places from just 14 runners, and I'm expecting another to go very close in the shape of Thello. The 5-year-old son of Arcano was a massive eye-catcher over C&D on his penultimate start when runner-up to Newmarket Warrior, repeatedly failing to get a clear run through the pack when travelling on the bridle before passing a number of rivals in the closing stages. If he was coming directly into this race on the back of that, he'd be the favourite but a disappointing performance was on show last time out when sixth behind subsequent winner Malaspina, again over C&D. However, that was a joke race in which they crawled along throughout and jockey Phil Dennis tried to make his move a hell of a lot earlier, which may have backfired and caused the horse to blow up somewhat (he was also boiling over pre-race). My only concern today is another mediocre pace scenario ensuing as there seems to be a lot of runners in this who are content taking a lead, but the selection will be winning again soon and I'd have him in at shorter than 6/1.

Newcastle:
5:30 - Thello - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)

redzerdrog

Great shout. Well done

x PyRo

Much appreciated! Good to be back and that was a nice performance - always nice when they actually run the race you've been expecting. Sadly doesn't always work out so sweetly.

zimmermania

x PyRo wrote: »

Jim Goldie's All-Weather horses have been motoring along nicely in the past month, 4 winners and a further 8 places from just 14 runners, and I'm expecting another to go very close in the shape of Thello. The 5-year-old son of Arcano was a massive eye-catcher over C&D on his penultimate start when runner-up to Newmarket Warrior, repeatedly failing to get a clear run through the pack when travelling on the bridle before passing a number of rivals in the closing stages. If he was coming directly into this race on the back of that, he'd be the favourite but a disappointing performance was on show last time out when sixth behind subsequent winner Malaspina, again over C&D. However, that was a joke race in which they crawled along throughout and jockey Phil Dennis tried to make his move a hell of a lot earlier, which may have backfired and caused the horse to blow up somewhat (he was also boiling over pre-race). My only concern today is another mediocre pace scenario ensuing as there seems to be a lot of runners in this who are content taking a lead, but the selection will be winning again soon and I'd have him in at shorter than 6/1.

Newcastle:
5:30 - Thello - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)

Simply brilliant,i only saw the replay now (was in a day ward waiting to be released around 5 30).

He could be called the winner 2 1/2 out,its great when they win like that,excellent pick.

x PyRo

In the good quality sprint handicap at Chelmsford, I'm pretty sure there's at least one horse at a big price who is capable of going close to winning and the only problem is finding out which! Whirl Me Round has a lot to prove on what is his second start for George Peckham but I wouldn't take the first seriously as it came over 7f at Wolverhampton and it's too far for him. Add into the equation a first-time hood that may have negated his interest in the race and you have the perfect recipe for a throwaway performance. Previous to joining this yard he had shown some solid form over 5f & 6f as a juvenile and went within a neck of landing the £110k 2-year-old Trophy at Redcar last October. Things obviously didn't work out afterwards as, following a (decent-ish) effort at Doncaster, he was sold and then not seen for another year but hopefully whatever issue was ailing him has been overcome.

Based on what he was showing last term, the tempo of today's race could well suit as the likes of Aleef, Cappananty Con, Captain Lars and Jameerah have all gone from the front on their latest starts and Peckham's charge will want them falling in a heap if he's to come through late on. Being drawn in stall 4 is perfect and Luke Morris is an obviously positive jockey booking on the All-Weather, plus he does ride plenty of the stable's better fancied runners. It's tough to know whether I'm barking up the wrong tree or the right one given the horse's profile and the risks attached, but 25/1 makes all of that worthwhile and I can't see another price-play in the race that I'd prefer. Aleef interests me in the first-time tongue-tie back at 6f but the price is tight and he flopped heavily five weeks ago when punted into 4/1. The market will tell a story there pre-race but I'm happy enough to throw a (potentially wild) dart at Whirl Me Round.

Chelmsford:
6:30 - Whirl Me Round - 1pt @ 25/1 (General)

x PyRo

Well, that was a waste of time. Weakened away tamely at the top of the straight.

x PyRo

Zapper Cass will be the first of two bets today and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Tony Coyle's charge outrun his odds. There's no doubting his UK career has been mediocre since arriving around a year ago but he did manage to win a handicap at Nottingham in June and has now fallen 4lbs below that mark. I thought there was definite promise in his penultimate start at Southwell when the minimum trip was simply too sharp and the two horses directly in-front of him that day, Mujassam and Treaty Of Rome, finished first and third in a decent 6f handicap at the same track last week. Today's bet was only mid-division on that occasion having taken the pair on once more but, again, it wasn't a run completely devoid of promise. The tapeta surface may suit better, this represents a drop in grade (first Class 5 outing in Britain) and I simply think he's a horse who should be winning sooner rather than later. Cheekpieces going on for the first time are an interesting addition as well and if they can eke out a bit more, things could get interesting in the closing stages.

In the following race, a step forward from Mio Ragazzo could be on the cards. It's clear from the markets on a couple of his four starts to date that better has been expected of the well-bred son of Mayson but one can only assume he has been a slow burner when it comes to getting the hang of things on the track. A tendency to over-race hasn't helped matters but there was a lot to like about his effort at Kempton (five weeks ago) when running on well late in the piece to finish third behind the well-handicapped Lacan. The raw form wouldn't blow your mind but the visual was encouraging and getting an extra 142 yards today could be the key to unlock the door. Marco Botti's yard are going along nicely on the All-Weather this month, with 4 winners and a few places from 11 runners, which heightens my enthusiasm, and they've a serious chance to extend that to a fifth with this fellow. He definitely has more talent than the official rating of 62 would suggest and this second handicap start could see it all click together. 7/2 won't get us rich but he should take a lot of beating.

Wolverhampton:
5:45 - Zapper Cass - 1.50pts @ 16/1 (General)
6:15 - Mio Ragazzo - 2pts @ 7/2 (General)

x PyRo

Both well backed (16's into 10's and 7/2 into 5/2), both weakened tamely. Still keeping Zapper Cass on side (his day will come!) but no idea what to make of Mio Ragazzo. He was keen off a joke pace but had a lovely position... which you'd think would have negated that somewhat. Disappointing.

No bets for Sunday.

x PyRo

It's still inconclusive as to whether Kadrizzi actually gets 7f and his career wins have come in sprints, but he was rated between 95 & 101 on each of his four handicap outings at this trip and I think it's worth taking a punt on him staying off 87 today. He's definitely well-treated on the best of his form last term, which included a win at Ascot off 97, and probably needed that latest run at Newcastle when running without any form of headgear. Cheekpieces go back on (finished second in them when worn for the first time last April following a C&D 5th off 100; beaten 2-lengths), he's down a further 3lbs in the weights and Jack Duern hops up to remove the same again. They're well drawn, too, and any double-figured price is worth a shot at in my book.

Argus is a huge price in the finale at Kempton and could cause a surprise on his All-Weather debut. The 5-year-old won 3 of his first 5 starts for Ralph Beckett as a 3-year-old but didn't go on from that and subsequently joined Alexandra Dunn to go hurdling a year ago. Bar winning a mediocre four-runner novices' race, he hasn't cut much ice in that code but showed some flat ability remained in place at Chepstow in September, finishing fifth and only beaten a few lengths. That adds cause for optimism with regard to today's race and I'm interested to see taking the hood off will liven him up even further. The likelihood is that this will be a prep to have him spot on for something over timber but you never know. And he's 33/1!

Lingfield:
2:00 - Kadrizzi - 1.50pts @ 11/1 (General)

Kempton:
7:10 - Argus - 1pt @ 33/1 (General)

x PyRo

Kadrizzi was only beaten a few lengths and shaped much better than at Newcastle. Still not entirely convinced about the trip (even on a sharp track) but I'd back him over it again at the right price off that sort of mark. Argus dropped away in the straight but was ridden with kid gloves. Definitely running there with a view to another day.

Running P/L: -1.50pts after the first 9 bets. Things will get livelier in the not too distant future! Hopefully on the winners front as well. Back tomorrow, should have a bet or two.

x PyRo

Pastime proved very disappointing at Chelmsford a few weeks ago but had a far from ideal trip from a poor draw and was ridden handier than he would care for (I want to see him held up with cover here). Coming back to Newcastle's tapeta surface over the C&D of his impressive victory in June could spark him back to life and I think we'll see a much better performance this time around. At Wolverhampton, Dolphin Village is given another chance. He moved quite well over C&D last time out when we backed him and although he failed to finish the race off properly after trading as low as 5/2, today's contest represents another drop in grade. It's the first time he tackles Class 6 company and with Ben Curtis replacing an apprentice, it's worth playing the 11/1. Swift Emperor never got involved here a couple of weeks back but faced an uphill battle after missing the kick and didn't run horribly in the circumstances. Previous to that, he had run to a decent level on turf when second at York and fifth at Redcar, and a replication of either run would see him involved here. He has won on tapeta before and, indeed, won cosily off this mark (86) when last taking in a Class 4 race in March. Whether he's currently tuned to that level, I'm not sure, but if he is then he's seriously overpriced.


Newcastle:
4:05 - Pastime - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)

Wolverhampton:
7:45 - Dolphin Village - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)
8:15 - Swift Emperor - 1.50pts @ 12/1 (General)

famagusta

Do you need to post the same thing in three threads??

x PyRo

Don't need to do anything, but I am and will. Not everyone checks the log section (hence threads here having low views), the fancies thread is popular and the racing forum threads likewise.

famagusta

Fair enough, good luck with your picks

x PyRo

Cheers, might need that luck!! Likewise if you've punted anything today.

el_greco

welcome back Pyro and well done on the picks today!

x PyRo

Plucky Dip used to run to a mark between 80 & 82 frequently but hasn't shown that level of form in quite a while and that's worrying. He has, however, now dropped to 70 and that's a very attractive rating, particularly with Jack Osborn taking off another 7lbs with his claim. The question is whether the horse is in the form required to take advantage but he didn't run too badly (despite being beaten a fair margin; winner scored comfortably) when third over 7f at Chelmsford last month and that form took a boost with the runner-up, Samphire Coast, winning since. Over the came C&D, Plucky Dip flopped next time when upped in grade but had a poor draw in stall 13 and was dropped right out towards the rear. The pace help up as is often the case at that track and whilst he did pass a few rivals in the straight, he simply had no chance of getting anywhere near the leaders. This is a major drop in grade (0-85 to a 0-70) and trip (last win over 6f), and I have a feeling he'll be primed to strike in the not too distant future, hopefully today. Handier tactics than those at play lately might be needed but he has been granted a perfect drawn in stall 2 and is more than good enough to be a major threat to all. I've missed the fancier prices that were around this morning but can't let him go unbacked.

Wolverhampton:
3:10 - Plucky Dip - 1.50pts @ 7/1 (General)

x PyRo

Proper punt on Plucky Dip late on, backed into 7/2, but he got another poor position from the gate and Jack Osborn didn't really cover himself in glory on the bend when going for a gap that was always likely to close (although he's an apprentice learning his trade so I can't give out; it was worth a shot!). Another throwaway run from the horse and in the right race, I'll hop on board again next time. His turn is close...

x PyRo

Men United came in for market support throughout the day when returning from a six week break over C&D recently but failed to fire in the way he can on a proper going day (not that they're too often, hence why he's 1-33!). A first-time visor, which was replacing blinkers, led to the horse racing on the keen side and it's not much of a surprise to see Roy Bowring dispense of all headgear this time around (tongue-tie goes on; went well wearing one before). If he settles down and saves a bit of energy for the closing stages, I wouldn't be surprised to see a much improved effort. 10/1 makes enough appeal to play.

Over at Chelmsford, I'm going to take a chance on Envisaging backing up his recent maiden success over 6f at Newcastle (campaigned at 7f-1m beforehand). That was a while in the making as he went 0-10 previously but had posted a number of fine efforts in defeat, including in handicap company, and remains unexposed as a sprinter. Whether he will be able to match the raw speed of some of these battle-hardened handicappers remains to be seen but I do think it'll suit if PJ McDonald doesn't get caught out of his ground on a horse who looks sure to finish the race off strongly. With the right tactical scenario playing out, he should go close.

Southwell:
3:25 - Men United - 1pt @ 10/1 (General)

Chelmsford:
8:15 - Envisaging - 1.50pts @ 5/1 (General)

x PyRo

Men United wasn't good enough on the day and removing the headgear didn't have the effect I hoped for. Envisaging should have won; he was the best horse in the race in my opinion but the front-runner got away - one of the pre-race worries - and catching that rival turned out to be an impossible ask. He'll be winning a handicap soon but will also go up the weights, which is annoying.

x PyRo

Back again. Life got in the way as it does!

---

The 3.50pm at Lingfield is an interesting handicap and the first thing to note is that they should go a good gallop from the off. Pearl Spectre interests me at a big price should the expected pace pressure fail to materialise, as it so often can when you least expect, but instead I'm going to play Alfred Hutchinson at 16/1. He's David O'Meara's second string according to the betting market but has Adam Kirby on board for the first time in nearly a year and that's an obvious positive around this track in particular. Further hope can be garnered from the 10-year-old's latest run at this track when mid-division over a mile (only beaten 2-lengths) as he travelled like a horse who was at something close to peak form before flattening out, and the hope today is that dropping back to 7f could do the trick.

There's no doubting it's speculation on my part as all bar two of his ten wins have come over further but he's definitely quick enough to lie up with these early doors and if the forward-going sorts fall in a hole up the straight, he should be staying on strongly with the likes of Mr Bossy Boots (poorly draw; not sure whether blinkers will have the desired effect), Shyron (also poorly drawn) and favourite Sword Exceed (on an upward curve and unexposed at the trip but is a mediocre price in my book). Gate seven is ideal for Alfred and anything within a couple of points of the 16/1 quotes are simply too big and warrant a bet. I just hope he's not used too early due to having the stamina for further as that rarely ends well. Sit in mid-division, get motoring on the bend and engage the turbo afterwards. Easy...


Lingfield:
3:50 - Alfred Hutchinson - 1pt @ 16/1 (General)

x PyRo

That could have got interesting if Kirby wasn't locked up with no gaps to go through. Had plenty of horse underneath. Oh well.

x PyRo

The first of tomorrow's bets. Another one or two may follow later of in the morning.

---

I'm going to start doing some more race previews around the weekends and there's no time like the present. Anyway, on we go! This year's renewal of the Listed Hever Stakes - over the flying five-furlongs at Lingfield - has an interesting look to it and as a betting medium, makes plenty of appeal with seven of the eight runners priced between 7/2 & 8/1. Finding the winner mightn't be too easy and it does seem to be a well matched field but I'll give it a crack and we'll see what happens after.

2:05pm Lingfield - Runner-By-Runner Guide:

Encore D'Or - 6-13 on All-Weather surfaces with a pair of C&D successes under his belt and has to go down as a noteworthy contender now dropped back to his last winning mark. However, his recent form in Meydan was disappointing and hopes are pinned on an assumption that the horse didn't acclimatise. It's entirely possible that he will show his true colours this time around, especially with Ryan Moore booked and the draw being kind in stall two, but quotes around the 8/1 mark aren't enough to tempt me into having a bet.

Boom The Groom - Holds absolutely no secrets from the handicapper having raced on no less than 53 occasions and looks regressive on the figures having dropped 11lbs from 107 since this time last year, but showed he wasn't far off peak form in handicap company when second over 5f at Chelmsford last month and then again over 6f here a week later. Didn't excel himself on his sole start since but only finished a few lengths off the winner and has a much kinder draw now. He's at least worthy of a position on the shortlist.

Brother Tiger - Speedy sort when he's at his best but definitely has limitations and yet to win above Class 3 company. His official rating of 80 leaves him with an ocean to find against the majority of these and barring some strange goings-on, he'll do well to finish in the top five. Quickly overlooked at this level.

Gracious John - The one they all have got to beat on official ratings having been allotted 110 since winning a Wolverhampton handicap off 107 in December. Would have to be considered a huge player if replicating that in what isn't the best of Listed contests you'll come across but he has since finished last on both outings since and that's a worry. Returning to the minimum trip will help and he is a three-time C&D winner, but given the price of 7/2, I find it easy enough to swerve him and think it's wise to throw the dart elsewhere.

Orvar - Rated 101 as a juvenile and seems capable of getting back to at least that figure after winning his last two races, including on debut for Paul Midgely (bought out of Robert Cowell's for 42,000gns; had a wind operation since) over this trip at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. He holds Boom The Groom and Royal Birth on the raw form but is yet to race at this track and previous experience of Lingfield could be a leveler in their favour. The bounce factor is another potential issue and, overall, I don't think 4/1 is worth bothering with.

Royal Birth - Won this race twelve months ago when defeating Lancelot Du Lac but hasn't managed to score since; for all that he has run well on a number of occasions. His recent form leaves something to be desired having finished behind three of these in a first-time eyeshield (retained with regular tongue-tie) a couple of weeks ago but got shuffled back on the bend at Wolverhampton and perhaps should be forgiven. Coming back to this C&D might liven him up and he's another who is getting a spot on the shortlist.

Tomily - Finished ahead of Boom The Groom and Royal Birth, but behind Orvar, last time out and previously only short-headed by Gracious John in December (albeit in receipt of 13lbs; runs off levels here). He has won at this track before, also, but that came over a furlong further and the test on offer might just be sharp enough. I'd expect a decent, staying-on effort but from a win point of view, he doesn't really interest me.

Karijini - Completely unexposed 4-year-old filly who has only had six starts to date and won three of her four outings (all over 6f) since joining Archie Watson from Simon Crisford. She shapes as if speed is not an issue, often racing on the keen side, and it will be interesting to see how a drop to the minimum trip suits. Tackling this sort of company, however, makes life difficult and despite getting the mares' allowance, there's no way I can look at the quotes of 5/1-6/1 and think "value". She could surprise me but is overlooked too.

Summary:

Gracious John has an obvious chance on ratings and could well bounce back to show the form that led to him winning twice in December, including over C&D, but the price is restrictive enough for my liking given the risks involved with regard to his current well-being. Royal Birth won last year's renewal of the race and will appeal to many - and if I was dutching he'd get a nod from what should prove to be a nice draw in stall four - but preference instead is for Boom The Groom to bounce back to his best. He has to find lengths with some of these but does like it around here and has the inside gate, which is ideal. Despite his official rating being just 96, I expect a good performance to be forthcoming and wouldn't bother taking figures too literally.

Selection:

2:05 Lingfield - BOOM THE GROOM - 1pt @ 8/1 (General)

x PyRo

No joy with last week's two bets, Alfred Hutchinson getting absolutely no luck in-running being quite an annoyance! Adam Kirby had plenty of horse underneath and it could have got interesting, certainly for those who went each-way and possibly for the rest of us on win-only. He will be winning sooner rather than later but I doubt 16's will be as readily available. Boom The Groom ran a good race in the Listed Hever Stakes and have a feeling his turn is edging closer, which will be discussed further down the page!

1:45 Lingfield - Constantino - 1pt @ 9/1 (General)

Constantino has a question or two to answer, mainly his absence from the track having been missing in action since flopping at Haydock in September and he's one you'd think Richard Fahey would have targeted for a campaign on the All-Weather. His form achieved on artificial surfaces is much superior to anything turf runs have yielded but presumably he's a horse with soundness issues as shown by a few different gaps in the 5-year-old's thirteen-race career. Regardless of why he hasn't been out yet this winter, I don't have many worries when it comes to his ability to go well fresh and both of his C&D runs to date have yielded excellent second place finishes, one of which was very unlucky not to end in victory. With more fortune in-running from a good draw in 3, he can trouble the market leaders (if anywhere near fit) and is overpriced at 9's.

2:55 Lingfield - Boom The Groom - 2pts @ 13/2 (General)

It might be worth taking another chance on Boom The Groom returning to winning ways now that he's back in handicap company. Tony Carroll's 7-year-old just couldn't live with the likes of Gracious John (1st) and Encore D'Or (2nd) when fourth in the Hever Stakes this time last week but was only beaten a couple of lengths and is now 5lbs better off with the runner-up. Racing a shade on the keen side wouldn't have helped his cause either and it was encouraging to see the selection keeping on well to the line up the straight, shaping as if close to the form required to be winning a race like today's once granted a proper pace scenario (they crawled in the Hever). Oisin Murphy taking over in the saddle is a positive given how well he has been riding over the winter and, interestingly, it's his only mount on the card.