Pyro's Horse Bets - Vol. 2

x PyRo

One good, one bad. Not exactly in the order I expected! Boom The Groom wasn't on a going day - showed loads of speed, then weakened in the straight. Stark contrast to last week.

Constantino tanked his way around, got the gaps and won cosily enough. Hopefully some more will follow suit soon.

+15pts on the thread so far.

x PyRo

It's little more than a week until one of the greatest racing spectacles begins and I'm going to take a look some of the Championship races, see if there's any value to be eeked out and ramble on about the runners for a while! Those races are the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Gold Cup & Stayers' Hurdle. All interesting contests as expected, although two of them contain odds-on favourites and wouldn't be the most appealing betting propositions for me, but what can one do! We kick off with the Champion Hurdle.

Champion Hurdle Preview:

The obvious starting point is Buveur D'Air, last year's brilliant winner who is still only a 7-year-old and boasts a perfect 3-3 record this season. 4/6 is the best price currently available about Nicky Henderson's star hurdler and if he runs to his official rating of 169, it's hard to see any of the likely opposition getting within a few lengths of him in their current guise (a peak Faugheen would be a serious threat, obviously!). The only potential saving grace for them might be the fact that Buveur D'Air has barely had a proper race this season, cosily defeating Irving, The New One & John Constable in his three outings. Using the lack of opposition against the horse is clutching at straws somewhat but I would have preferred to see him challenged by better performers than the circa 155-rated horses he has come up against. He's always going to make light work of those sorts in small fields and will have a harder battle this time around, although whether any of the others can beat him is extremely doubtful, hence the 4/6 quotes!

Faugheen is next up in the market at 6/1 and the 2015 winner of this race would be a huge threat to the favourite were he operating near his peak level. However, he's a 10-year-old who has had well-documented problems and how much remains in the tank is questionable. He did at least show that Ryanair Hurdle flop at Christmas to be all wrong when runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month but getting turned over by Supersundae, as talented as that rival is, suggests that Willie Mullins' charge has lost a step. To my eye, he didn't look to have the same engine and when the old Faugheen would have been grinding the field to submission, the current version couldn't get away. Don't get me wrong, there were definite positives to emerge from that performance and he could come on again physically, but I just can't get behind the attempt to regain his former crown. Stranger things have happened, although I don't see him winning.

It's 10/1 or bigger for the remainder and My Tent Or Yours, runner-up in this race on all three occasions when he has lined up, is sure to appeal to many as an each-way bet. He's a rock-solid 160-ish performer and won his first race in nearly four years when defeating The New One & Melon in the International in December. Being in receipt of 6lbs was a massive help there but soft ground isn't really his thing so that was a leveler if you're looking for a reason to uplift the form. Spring ground is what he wants but therein lies the problem for this year's renewal of the Champion, as it's likely we'll be looking at more testing conditions than you'd hope for. He'll handle it to a certain extent, no doubt about that, but I'd be inclined to think Melon will turn the form around and if there was a gun to my head, I'd prefer to be with the Mullins horse at the prices and given the possible going. Last year's Supreme Novices' second didn't cover himself in glory behind Faugheen in the Irish Champion but had a hood on for the first time and may not have faced up to it.

Yorkhill, were he to actually turn up in this, would be a fascinating proposition and there's nobody who can question the immense talent he possesses at his best. That has been on show at two festivals already, firstly when he got the better of Yanworth in the Neptune (2016) and then again in the JLT (2017) on his third start over fences. Sadly, things haven't panned out for the son of Presenting this season as he bombed out when upped to three-miles for the first time in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase and repeated that same trick back at two-miles on his sole start since. It hasn't been an ideal campaign for him thus far and you would wonder whether he has soured, but Mullins says he's 60-40 in favour of running him in this race and I can definitely see the reason why he's leaning for it instead of the Ryanair. He'd be an exciting ride if connections decide to revert to hurdles but there are too many questions over his current well-being to be confident in anything, for all that recent reports over his homework have been more positive.

Others worthy of a mention include Elgin, who could (and should) be supplemented following his Kingwell success at Wincanton a couple of weeks ago. The 6-year-old gave 4lbs and a 2.5-length beating to Ch'Tibello, who himself was around the same distance behind My Tent Or Yours in the International (off level weights), and that performance was indicative of a horse who is on an upward curve again. Quite whether he has enough in reserve to trouble the best of these is up for debate and the likelihood is that time will show he doesn't, but he will no doubt have each-way supporters at 20/1. The fact that he's a relative youngster leaves further improvement on the cards and I can see him running on late in the piece, albeit most likely into a respectable fifth or sixth. Some of the others will need to disappoint for a place to be achieved.

Wicklow Brave is the final horse I'm going to mention and that's with good reason; he's my main fancy to trouble Buveur D'Air. The reality is that he, too, is an outside bet to worry Henderson's charge and we haven't got to see the horse since he finished tenth in the Melbourne Cup in November, but there's immense ability that sometimes comes out on the track when his mind doesn't get in the way. He can be reluctant to jump off on occasion, as seen in this race twelve months ago, but coming down to two from home - and for a short while afterwards - he was a major place player (traded as low as 3/1 in-running from a BSP of 40/1!). The fact that he flattened out coming down to the final flight was understandable - the effort required to even get into contention from his original starting position was huge and he simply wasted an ocean of energy that you're not going to do without when taking on the fastest two-mile hurdlers in the land.

With that spin under his belt, also a first outing after a trip down under, Mullins gave him a shot at the Punchestown Champion Hurdle six weeks later and he was in receipt of what can only be described as a fantastic ride. Watching the video replay will sum things up much better than I can but having been slowly away as usual, and then keen in rear, Patrick Mullins let him stride on and by the time they reached the far side of the fifth hurdle, Wicklow Brave had jumped his way into the lead. In terms of efficient energy distribution, things appeared, visually at least, as if they weren't exactly going to plan. The horse, however, was full of himself and despite understandably tiring after a fine jump at the last, he got the better of My Tent Or Yours by a length-and-a-half to make it sixth time lucky in Grade 1 hurdles company. End of season form is often questionable but a replication of that run should see him hitting the frame at least next week.

To get the better of Buveur D'Air, barring any incidents, improvement is undoubtedly needed but only 5lbs separate them on official ratings and if he can consent to being ridden with more restraint than at Punchestown, things might get interesting late in the day. Presumably, the blinkers worn for the first time on that occasion will return (not worn since the Belmont Gold Cup in June) and with a proper gallop to sit off, he's a nice each-way bet at 14/1 if you're looking for one to take the hot favourite on with. The even more appealing bet might be in the "without Buveur D'Air market" where Wicklow Brave is priced at 6/1 and I really like the look of that. Of course, we have to take certain aspects on trust, mainly the horse's fitness after such a long break from the track and that he'll actually start the race in a normal fashion, but they're the only bets I can see in an otherwise unappealing heat (from a punting point of view). Hopefully all will go to plan.

Champion Hurdle Selection:
Wicklow Brave - EW @ 14/1 & 6/1 in the betting w/o Buveur D'Air market.

Note: I won't be advising any stakes at Cheltenham. My proper bets are flat only - this is more for the craic!

x PyRo

One bet for today...

7:40 Kempton - Mr Bossy Boots - 1.50pts @ 8/1 (General)

It's nearly a couple of years since Mr Bossy Boots has managed to get his head in-front but he has dropped from a peak mark of 96 to 84 and should prove capable of winning a Class 4 contest in the not too distant future. Indeed, he only found one too good on his penultimate start over C&D when Bobby Wheeler bounced back to show his true worth and that form took a boost with the third home, Arnarson, winning at Chelmsford next time. The selection didn't exactly step forward on his sole start since but that was in a hot Class 3 at Lingfield and he was drawn very wide in stall twelve. It led to a less than ideal trip through from the start and I feel that his petrol was used in the early part of the contest, which isn't what he wants. He takes a while to wind up these days, so it's easy to understand why connections might think they should sit as handy as possible when he does break well (and it'll yield good runs on occasions, no doubt), but I'd much rather position him in mid-division off a solid gallop and see what happens in the straight. If they do go a proper pace from the off here, it could well get interesting in the closing stages.

x PyRo

Eh... not sure what sort of run that was. Stone last. Not his form but such is racing.

Edit: Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that MR BOSSY BOOTS (IRE), unplaced, had bled from the nose.

That explains it. He burst.

x PyRo

Mr Bossy Boots was a big disappointment on Wednesday and didn't show any of his usual zest in the closing stages, although met trouble early on and got a massive bump from the runner-up early in the straight. However, it later transpired that he had bled from the nose and it's obviously easier to ignore a run when they've burst. Whether it's something he has suffered from before, I'm not sure, but hopefully he'll be back on the track sooner rather than later as there's a handicap in him before too long.

2:05 Wolverhampton - Examiner - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)

At 11/1, it could be worth taking a chance on Examiner to win this year's Lincoln trial, for all that I wouldn't give him much hope in the main event itself. Stuart Williams' 7-year-old ran in this race twelve months ago and didn't have the best of luck, being forced ridiculously wide on the turn into the home straight and he could have got second to the progressive Nimr otherwise. The way he finished off was eye-catching and if the trainer has got him at a similar level of form today, he has more than enough ability to get heavily involved once more. I don't think this is a great race for the money on offer and the favourite is our winner from last week, Constantino, who backs up quickly. It's possible he could bounce although he's the one to beat if he doesn't, the price doesn't make much appeal. Big Country has to prove he has the speed for the trip and Mr Scaramanga is high enough in the weights for my liking. Examiner is the one I keep coming back to and if he's fit (hard to know but likely targeted at this), a big run should be forthcoming.

6:45 Chelmsford - Gloriux - 1pt @ 7/1 (General)

Gloriux didn't achieve very much with Charles Hills (0-6), going backwards after finishing second on debut at Doncaster as a juvenile. He did, however, catch the eye in no uncertain terms on his first start for John Balding three weeks ago, getting badly hampered when running on well inside the last half-furlong of a similar quality minimum trip handicap at Newcastle. If it wasn't for the interference, he would have been much closer to the winner, Big Lachie, and I expect that form to be turned around under today's conditions. The step up in trip is in his favour too and there's untapped potential that could come out over 6f on the All-Weather. Of the others in the race, Desert Fox likes it here and is in great knick at present, but 9/4-5/2 is hardly appealing with another career-best required. Lanjano has had a break since running well over C&D (seems to need time between races) but a price I'd have accept about him has disappeared. Gloriux is the play and if he handles the track as well as he did Newcastle, he'll go close to winning.

x PyRo

Please note: I'm not a good NH punter and this week usually costs me a fortune.

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Despite National Hunt racing annoying me more often than not, there are few weeks in the year I look forward to more than this one. The racing on offer is epic, there are some cracking betting opportunities and none of the horses are being lined up for another day! Throughout the week, I will be posting my selections for every race on the site. They are, however, not official service selections so no stakes will be advised and even if they make 100 points profit at levels, they won't be counted towards any figures. Best of luck to everyone who is punting and here goes nothing with the Cheltenham Festival Day One picks...

1:30pm: Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Debuchet - Each-Way @ 33/1

Getabird is obviously talented, I just don't think he's as good as some of the yard's recent winners and the price is shorter than it should be on account of who his connections are. He's still the one to beat - and I liked the way he got the better of Mengli Khan - but at sub 2/1, no thanks. Kalashnikov has the highest official rating following his Betfair Hurdle win at Newbury and he's a nice sort who should enjoy the hill. Quite whether he wants this ground is questionable, even after that last run, and I would have preferred to see him in the Ballymore on a better surface. He'll be a popular each-way play but doesn't do it for me.

The one I want to take a flyer with is Debuchet. On hurdling form, his claims are limited and I'm probably barking up the wrong tree (as is often the case), but there was definite improvement in his sixth behind Samcro at Leopardstown last month and it's reported that his trainer hasn't got the clearest of runs with him this season. She's happier now and twelve months ago he ran a screamer when second in the Champion Bumper as a 4-year-old (no easy task), finding only Fayonagh too strong in the finish. If he was back to that level of well-being, I would not be one bit surprised to see him outrun the current quotes of 33/1 and place.

2:10pm: Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase - Footpad - Win @ Evens

This may be a small field but it's a brilliant race regardless and should provide a thorough test throughout. Willie Mullins' Footpad has been pretty flawless over fences to date and they look to have made a man out of him. He's 3-3 in the code and there was a lot to like about his defeat of the reopposing Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown five weeks ago, always seen jumping well out in-front before quickening away from that rival in the straight. Further improvement could be in the locker (already is a better chaser than he was a hurdler!) and he seems to be many people's odds-against banker for the longest time.

I'm inclined to agree with them. Fair enough, Petit Mouchoir should sharpen up for that race last month having been off since October and he did get the better of Footpad on a few occasions when they faced-off as hurdlers, but the bigger obstacles can be a great leveler and look to have swung things in the favour of Mullins' charge. Saint Calvados could be the fly in the ointment as far as the market leader is concerned and was super impressive at Warwick, but second spot is the best I see him getting if Footpad shows his true worth. If I wasn't covering every race I'd leave this one alone but, unoriginally, the favourite gets the nod!

2:50pm: Ultima Handicap Chase - Shantou Flyer - Each-Way @ 18/1

Now we're talking! A proper betting race for those sad souls like myself who enjoy value for dinner. Eighteen runners, plenty of firms offering five places and some market leaders who take up too much of the book for my liking. Coo Star Sivola bolted up at Exeter last time out but that was an egg-and-spoon race in comparison to this and for all that he remains capable of further progression at the trip, 5/1 is short. Last year's runner-up, Singlefarmpayment, would prefer better ground and flopped last time, whilst Sue Smith's Vintage Clouds can make mistakes at his fences and won't get away with many in a field like this.

At 18/1 (with five places paid), Shantou Flyer looks a play. He has already finished ahead of the favourite this season, doing so around this track, and although that was at a shorter trip, three-miles isn't an issue for me. That last run at Kelso is easily forgiven (small field in which they jogged around for the majority) and I'm interested to see how he reacts to wearing a visor for the first time considering the rejuvenation in his form since cheekpieces went on three runs ago. It could be a coincidence of course but we'll know more later! In a wide-open contest where some are underrated and some definitely overrated, this lad can go well.

3:30pm: Champion Hurdle - Wicklow Brave - EW @ 14/1 & 6/1 w/o Buveur D'Air

I covered this race last week. Still happy with Wicklow Brave and all I'm hoping now is that the horse jumps off. It's great to see the blinkers back and Patrick Mullins gets fine tune out of him, so fingers crossed the least they grab is place cash! You can read my thoughts on the Champion Hurdle HERE (CLICK!).

4:10pm: OLBG Mares' Hurdle - Apple's Jade - Win @ 8/13

There's little point on spending too much time on this race. Apple's Jade is a minimum of 4lbs clear of the remainder on official ratings and the closest pursuer in that department, La Bague Au Roi, is probably a bit overrated. Gordon Elliott's mare won a better renewal twelve months ago when seeing off Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini, neither of whom return, and if she runs to ability she'll repeat the trick. Her form this season has been excellent and there was a lot to like about the defeat of Supersundae over three-miles at Leopardstown, a trip that doesn't really play to her strengths. This is more her bag and she should win.

4:50pm: National Hunt Chase - Ms Parfois - Each-Way @ 7/1

The more talented bunch of amateur riders usually come up trumps in this and it's no surprise to see the top of the market dominated by them. Nothing at a big price really appeals to me anyway, regardless of which jockey is on board, and Ms Parfois is where my dart landed. Will Biddick hasn't won the race before but went close in 2012 and should get another excellent spin on board this progressive mare. She has been in fine order throughout the season, winning three of her five starts and this four-mile test on soft ground should be no problem whatsoever based on her running style and everything that has been shown on-track.

Finishing second to Black Corton at Ascot most recently was no disgrace, with Paul Nicholls' winning machine no bigger than 8/1 for the RSA, and the run of that race wouldn't have suited at all. She will get a proper pace to sit near this time around and there's an added bonus of being in receipt of a half-stone weight allowance for being a mare, which looks generous! I wouldn't usually go each-way on any horse, never mind one at single-figures, but with some firms offering four places and 7/1, it's too tempting. If she runs her race and everything goes to plan (does it ever in these contests!), a place is the least I'd hope for.

5:30pm: Novices' Handicap Chase - Testify - Each-Way @ 11/1

If you're confident in anything winning this, good luck! It's viciously competitive and there are a few who have been "saved" for the race, so to speak. Testify is yet to face a proper contest (in terms of field size) over fences, with his three runs to date having four or less runners, but despite that he finds himself lining up off top-weight. Connections may feel that's a tad harsh but in the long term, I will be disappointed should he not prove to be better than a 145 performer and Lake View Lad, who Testify comfortably dispatched on his first chasing start at this trip last time, has boosted his form since (defeating a subsequent winner).

Whether he will be able to hack a cavalry charge such as this remains to be seen but the fundamentals are there as he makes a nice shape over his fences more often than not and handles bad underfoot conditions (any horse with heavy ground Haydock form would handle a bog). Again, it's an each-way play with four, five and six places on offer depending on which bookie you're fortunate enough to not have been closed down by as of yet! Others of interest include Barney Dwan and Report To Base, but I'm just having one bet and that's on the Donald McCain runner. Should he prove as good as I think he is, he'll run big and get involved.

x PyRo

Day one was tough and cruel! Footpad won to provide an even money winner (it took great skill to pick that out!!!), but we had a couple that got away. Shantou Flyer at 18/1 being the main source of frustration and had he jumped the final fence running, he would have emerged victorious instead of finishing a neck behind in second. Each-way money back but that was annoying (plus I was on win-only!). Ms Parfois at 7/1 also lost out narrowly and for most of the run to the line I thought she was going to win. It wasn't to be.

Debuchet ran well for a long time in the Supreme (probably wants better ground and a longer trip now); Apple's Jade was a huge disappointment in the Mares' Hurdle and I can't explain that run; Wicklow Brave got away on terms in the Champion but didn't come up the hill again; and Testify was cooked in the finale after making an error four out. It could have been a good day but such is racing - you can find a cracking bet or two at these festivals and still come out with zero worthwhile winners. On we go towards the second day...

1:30pm: Ballymore Hurdle - Vision Des Flos - Each-Way @ 8/1 without Samcro

Samcro "is not the second coming of Jesus Christ" according to Michael O'Leary and whilst he's probably right on that score, the Gigginstown inmate is a super talent who really could be anything. He's an unbeaten 6-6 in his career to date, half of those coming over hurdles and that latest performance at Leopardstown was really impressive when you take into account the drop back to two-miles against talented rivals did not appear totally ideal pre-race. He made light work of them to win by over five-lengths! Going up in trip again will suit and the likelihood is that he's going to make it 7-7 today, but quotes of 8/11 leave little room for error.

In the betting without the favourite market, Vision Des Flos at 8/1 appeals each-way (three places) and is the one I like as an alternative. He showed a complete new level of form at Exeter last time, clearly improving for a small wind-op after disappointing at Hereford, and remains open to even more progression at this distance. It might be a stretch to beat Samcro but he can put it up to the best of the remainder and gets the nod. Again, it's the sort of bet I wouldn't bother with if I wasn't covering every race at the festival but I am, so he'll do! Black Op is another likable sort who'll go well, he's just not as appealing when it comes to price.

2:10pm: RSA Chase - Monalee - Win @ 7/2

This looks wide-open with claims easily made for any number of the runners. Presenting Percy, the "badly handicapped" horse who bolted up in last season's Pertemps, returns in search of another festival win and I quite like him. He ran a stormer behind Gold Cup hopeful Our Duke at Gowran last month (that is the best form on offer here) but he had a hard race and, with little more than a three week turnaround, the hope for his connections is that it won't have left a mark. It really is impossible to predict at this stage but he's a short enough price (5/2) to feel that looking elsewhere is justified and better ground would have been preferred.

Monalee is the main market rival and won a Grade 1 when last seen at Leopardstown. That was an admirable performance in which he looked to be crying out for this trip and I think he might be the one to beat. He, too, has strong festival form having finished runner-up to Penhill in the Albert Bartlett twelve months ago and should have no issue with the softer underfoot conditions. Riding him from the front is not a necessity either and the general run of the race, with a proper gallop looking assured, should suit. The price is far from mind-blowing and won't make anyone rich, but I would have him favourite and expect a big run.

2:50pm: Coral Cup - Fixe Le Kap - Each-Way @ 16/1

I could back five in this and get it hilariously wrong, but one book offers seven places and a few go with six, so each-way players will be happy out! Fixe Le Kap is the main fancy but Nicky Henderson's 6-year-old will have to bounce back after a poor run at Ascot last month. That was, however, his first outing after a wind-op in December and may well have been needed in more ways than one (regaining confidence in his breathing being one, fitness the other). On last year's form, he looks reasonably treated off 141 and didn't fare badly in the Fred Winter. At 16/1, given the place terms on offer, it's worth taking a chance on him.

3:30pm: Champion Chase - Altior - Win @ 11/10

We have the makings of a cracker here, though not from a punting point of view! Altior vs Douvan, with Min thrown into the mix for good measure. I don't think the latter mentioned is good enough if the top two run to their ability and with Douvan having been off since lining up in this race last year, preference is for Altior. His preparations haven't been smooth either but there has been a market overreaction to the issue he had a couple of days ago with his foot and odds-against are quite appealing actually. His comeback run was sound, he'll handle the conditions and devour the hill. I think he'll win with Douvan an honourable second.

4:10pm: Cross Country Chase - The Last Samuri - Each-Way @ 6/1

Finding an edge in the Cross Country races is not something I have managed to do at any point in all of my years punting and I'll keep this short and sweet. The Last Samuri is a token selection as he will handle the ground without any problems, jumps well, stays well and is reported to have loved these fences when schooled over them. He's using this as a stepping stone to the Grand National but mightn't even have to run up to his best to win if the unique course isn't a problem. Cause Of Causes would be a fairytale victor as he bids for his fourth straight festival win but there's no juice in the price so I'm happy to find an alternative.

4:50pm: Fred Winter - Knight Destroyer - Each-Way @ 25/1

Leaving this race well alone would be ideal! Knight Destroyer is held by favourite Nube Negra on a couple of pieces of form but should he run well here, it wouldn't be the first time a Jonjo O'Neill horse has improved for going handicapping, or indeed for running at the Cheltenham Festival! This former flat performer looked useful when winning at Uttoxeter in October and the promise of doing better when faced with a big field and a strong gallop is in place. It will have to take him to a new level, no doubting that, but stranger things have happened and he could run into one of the five places on offer with plenty of the books.

5:30pm: Champion Bumper - Rhinestone - Each-Way @ 8/1

Another race I can't claim to have an edge in but I'll suggest Rhinestone to run a big one. He shaped well when runner-up to the favourite for this, Blackbow, at Leopardstown most recently and that looked like a cracking bumper at the time (still does!). The winner may have got a better ride on the day and I wouldn't be shocked to see the form turned around. Having such a high cruising speed will be in favour around here and if they go hard up top, as you'd expect in such a big field, Joseph O'Brien's charge should be finishing off well up the hill. Hopefully it will be fast enough to come home in front of the other twenty-three runners!

x PyRo

I'm starting to remember why I gave up National Hunt punting! The first half of the festival has been tough and day two provided nothing of note. Altior was the only winner and his performance was spectacular, the hill again being his friend as he powered home by seven-lengths. Ground conditions didn't suit but great horses win when things aren't in their favour and he is top, top, top class. The only pity was that Douvan didn't stay upright but it's long odds-on that his mishap made no difference to who would have won.

The Last Samurai returned place money at 6's so at least paid for himself and did run a good race; Monalee was second, just failing to stay against an evidently high-class horse - connections may regret not going for the JLT; Vision Des Flos tanked around for some time and tried to win the race off the home turn, but burned out; Fixe Le Kap was my main hope of a nice-priced winner but failed to fire; Knight Destroyer fell when in the lead in the Fred Winter; and finally, Rhinestone wasn't good enough to make any sort of impression.

Onto day three we go and there's some cracking racing. Write-ups are brief - I'm running out of time sadly!

1:30pm: JLT Novices' Chase - Terrefort - Win @ 4/1

Nicky Henderson hasn't had Terrefort for too long but in two British runs, the grey French import has made an impression. He bolted up at Huntingdon on debut for the yard in January, ruining any handicap aspirations in the process, then got the better of a smart performer in Cyrname to win the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown. A slight step up on that could well suffice in what isn't the best JLT I've ever seen and quotes around 4/1 are fine. The only negative is that he's a 5-year-old, although one with lots of experience.

2:10pm: Pertemps Hurdle - Delta Work - Each-Way @ 10/1 & Who Dares Wins - Each-Way @ 14/1

Delta Work is the first of two bets in this race. He, too, is a bit on the young side but does remain unexposed and could be well-handicapped off 139. Recent efforts have been very solid, particularly since upped in trip to three-miles, and Davy Russell should get a good tune out of him. Who Dares Wins ran a cracker in the Coral Cup last year, finishing third, and I'm interested to see him at this trip for the first time. He stays all day on the flat and it may be what's needed to see him hit the frame at a festival again.

2:50pm: Ryanair Chase - Un De Sceaux - Win @ 8/11

No prizes being handed out for originality here. Un De Sceaux returns to defend his crown after putting in a spectacular round of jumping twelve months ago. It's not a great betting race and one I'd rather leave alone, but he will have been primed for the day whereas Cue Card had a tough outing at Ascot less than four weeks ago. That added freshness will do Willie Mullins' charge no harm in the latter stages and as long as he doesn't fight his rider too much, I think he'll emerge victorious to land the race once more.

3:30pm: Stayers' Hurdle - L'Ami Serge - Each-Way @ 12/1

Full race preview for the race is on the site. You can view it HERE (CLICK). Fingers crossed L'Ami goes well!

4:10pm: Brown Advisory Chase - King's Socks - Each-Way @ 13/2 & Traffic Fluide - Each-Way @ 28/1

King's Socks represents David Pipe, who won three of the last eight renewals of this race, and shaped well enough on debut for the yard at Kempton last month. That was his first outing for nearly a couple of years and it's safe to say that improvement is expected now running in a handicap. Traffic Fluide is the flyer at a price. His recent form is mediocre but he has run in Grade 1's the last thrice and the assessor looks to be taking a chance by dropping him to 145. With five places on offer, he's an interesting play.

4:50pm: Mares' Novices' Hurdle - Laurina - Win @ 4/6

This race is of zero interest to me and I don't care who wins! Laurina is the token selection as a result of her hammering of Alletrix, an easy next time out winner at Leopardstown. Classier rivals will be taking on the Mullins mare on this occasion but she could be a level above them with more to come. The ground won't be an issue and she'll be many people's banker of the day. I'd rather leave the race alone but will cheer her on. For the places behind, High School Days might be a bit on the underrated side.

5:30pm: Kim Muir Chase - Final Nudge - Each-Way @ 14/1

Final Nudge has performed well since embarking on his chasing career last season and could get involved in this ultra competitive handicap. He already has done exactly that in both the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton (second by a head) and the Welsh Grand National (third), and Sandown can be a funny track so I wouldn't be disappointed with his latest fifth there. He has all the attributes needed to run another big race and 14/1, with some books again offering five places, will do the job.

x PyRo

The third day of the festival was more like it! Delta Work provided a nice 10/1 winner in the Pertemps, holding on by a nose after moving powerfully throughout. It was a cracking ride from Davy Russell and there is no better National Hunt jockey around than him, as has been evidenced this week (bar his ride in the Arkle!). In the same race, Who Dares Wins also placed at 14/1 to ensure it was an even more enjoyable contest - and Alan King's horse did remarkably well considering what a keen hold he took early on.

Laurina also won and did so in unreal style, although she was a token selection; King Socks paid for himself, placing at 7/1, and will be of interest when granted a sharper test having tanked throughout; Terrefort finished second, just bumping into a high-class mare and he's a nice one for the future; Un De Sceaux also bumped into one and was too free to get home; Final Nudge moved well but wasn't up to it; whilst, finally, L'Ami Serge did not appreciate the run of the race in the Stayer's Hurdle. No pace on, no fun! Pity.

After three days, the selections (at level stakes) are -0.22pts so effectively dead-level and I'm not too dissatisfied with that. If Shantou Flyer had a bigger neck we'd be nicely ahead! With a bit of luck, hopefully the final day is about to throw up a few good ones. There are no shortage of opportunities to get stuck in and I'll be on the hunt for a big-priced winner, then run into the darkness and leave the National Hunt well alone for another 360-odd days! It has been fun, mind.

1:30pm: Triumph Hurdle - Apple's Shakira - Win @ 7/4

The last three favourite's have won this, including two owned by JP McManus, and Apple's Shakira could well repeat the trick and confirm herself as an immense talent. She looks to have everything required to emerge victorious and the December performance, when breezing away from Nube Negra over C&D, looks even better after that one finished third in the Fred Winter having travelled best of the lot. There are better rivals in place now, of course, but are they as talented as her? I really don't think so. She'll eat the hill.

2:10pm: County Hurdle - Spiritofthegames - Each-Way @ 20/1 & William H Bonney - Each-Way @ 25/1

Spiritofthegames is the first of two fancies in this year's County. He was third best behind Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle and previously finished second to William Henry in the Lanzarote, both very strong pieces of form. Connections could have gone down the Coral Cup route but the yard know what's needed to win this and they've a live contender at a big price. William H Bonney is the other play; he doesn't always finish his races out but seems to like this course and has the cruising speed to make you think he can rate higher.

2:50pm: Albert Bartlett Hurdle - Santini - Win @ 4/1

It's completely unoriginal but Santini is a lovely prospect and based on his win over two-and-a-half miles here in January, he's going to relish this longer trip. It's worth nothing that, when winning there, the horse he forced into second spot was Black Op and Tom George's charge subsequently ran to a similar level in coming second to Samcro in the Ballymore. I'm not saying Santini is a better horse than Gordon Elliott's charge but he's going to make one hell of a chaser next season, hopefully after succeeding in this race!

3:30pm: Gold Cup Chase - Definitely Red - Each-Way @ 12/1 & Road To Respect - Each-Way @ 12/1

Definitely Red is not one I had ever envisaged backing to win a Gold Cup... but here we are! He has been very impressive the last twice, most notably when giving 4lbs and a battering to American in the Cotswold. A further step up will be needed but it won't have to be major and to my eye, this looks a poor renewal. The other I want to keep on side is Christmas Chase winner Road To Respect. How the race pans out could see him to good effect and beating Balko Des Flos looks even better form after his performance yesterday.

4:10pm: Foxhunters Chase - Virak - Each-Way @ 16/1

Hunter Chases are not my favourite races but Virak is where the pin has landed. At his peak, he was a very useful performer who reached a mark of 159 and unsurprisingly paid for his consistency by hitting the wall afterwards (reported to have had issues also). He's still only a 9-year-old and arrives on the back of a couple of wins, including on heavy ground at Haydock last month. The conditions will favour him more than most and with a clear round, he could at least get into one of the four places on offer.

4:50pm: Martin Pipe Hurdle - Diese Des Bieffes - Each-Way @ 8/1

Diese Des Bieffes is another selection to have run in the Lanzarote at Kempton a couple of months ago and may well have been caught out by the nature of that track, despite stepping up to the trip for the first time. The way he kept on to the line bodes well and if he is travelling within himself coming into the last few furlongs (and not flat out!), I think he will relish the hill. In what is a race for conditional jockeys, getting the services of James Bowen is a huge positive too and they should go close off a mark of 137 if all goes to plan.

5:30pm: Grand Annual Chase - The Game Changer - Each-Way @ 20/1

Gordon Elliott has had some week and The Game Changer is another of his handicappers who could be somewhat underrated. On recent form figures, it's hard to fancy his chances and he was last seen tailing off at Fairyhouse, but he has been wearing a tongue-tie for the longest time and they had his wind done after that outing, so there obviously was an issue. He finds himself 8lbs lower than when sent off 9/1 for this race last year (ran poorly, mind!) and if he handles the conditions/is in form, he's weighted to be competitive.

x PyRo

5:30pm: Grand Annual Chase - Some Plan - Each-Way @ 20/1

The Game Changer is a non-runner so I'm switching to Some Plan. Ideally, I don't want to be backing a last time out faller in these competitive handicap chases as if there are any mental scars, you're not going to get much opportunity to get your confidence back. He is, however, a fairly treated horse and was going fine when tipping up three out at Leopardstown. With Noel Fehily taking over from a conditional, it may be worth taking a punt in what is a ridiculously wide-open affair. Theinval is the other of interest (ground?).

x PyRo

There was nothing to shout home about on the final day of Cheltenham, bar a few places. Overall, I really enjoyed the week and despite a -2.66pt loss if recording to level stakes, it was one of the best festivals I've had in a long time!!! That shows the level where my National Hunt punting had gone to but it's flat season all the way from here on in and I for one can't wait. Opportunities to get bets out will be more regular than has been the case in recent times and hopefully come (a dry) May/June, a proper streak of form has been hit.

In the opening race at Doncaster (1.50), Danzeno is worthy of support at quotes around 13/2. He didn't pull up many trees in Meydan but has fitness on his side and will appreciate underfoot conditions more than most. The fact that he has performed well on both of his starts at the course bodes well and I think he's a few points larger than he should be. Getting away from the stalls slowly often doesn't help his case but a second stakes race success will eventually come along - fingers crossed that it could be this one! I'm keen on him...

Sir Roderic has collapsed from a peak rating of 97 to 81 and is a live player in the Spring Mile (2.25) from a simplistic point of view. Of course, the horse has lost his form and that explains the handicapper's leniency, but he wore a tongue-tie on four of his most recent five starts before subsequently having a wind-op. If his breathing has been at him as much as that suggests, we could see a revitalised version of Rod Millman's charge and any double-figured price appeals, even against a few potentially progressive rivals.

The feature contest today is obviously the Lincoln (3.35) and Grey Britain is my fancy. Similar to Danzeno, Meydan did not go to plan but running in a graded race on dirt last time was fanciful to say the least and he's going to be happier back on turf. Interestingly, there isn't an excess of pace on despite the big field and that could play into his hands. Whether he's quite good enough to stay front rank throughout remains to be seen but 20/1 is worth a shot. If he's in the same form as his Goodwood run in August, he'll be involved.

Selections from Doncaster:
1:50 - Danzeno - 2pts @ 13/2 (General)
2:25 - Sir Roderic - 1pt @ 12/1 (General)
3:35 - Grey Britain - 1pt @ 20/1 (General)

x PyRo

Three rubbish runs. Onto tomorrow...

x PyRo

A disappointing opening day of the flat season but there'll be many more like it throughout the year, so no harm to experience the first one early doors! None of the selections ran well, although Danzeno had no chance after walking out of the stalls and Sir Roderic was given a much more prominent ride than is usually the case, which I don't understand. He can improve and remains of interest. Grey Britain got nowhere near the lead before ending up in reverse. I have no idea why he was so poor. Anyway, swiftly moving on...

Right Touch is taken to land the opener (2.25) at Doncaster today. The now 8-year-old is obviously exposed but has fallen down to a mark of 85 and drops into Class 4 level for the first time in nearly four years. His form hasn't exactly nosedived either and just three runs ago he was only beaten a half-length off 87 around Lingfield. A similar effort could be enough to win this and despite the sizable field, it's a mediocre affair. Ground conditions won't be a problem, nor will the track, and I think he'll be going close barring issue.

In the six-furlong handicap (3.35) it's hard to know how Giant Spark will run given the disappointment he proved to be last term, but he's starting out off almost a stone lower than when returning in 2017 and is worth a flyer at the prices. The son of Orientor paid for winning four times a couple of seasons ago but time and time again these sprinters find their level again and this is one that will be on my radar for a little while. Whether this will be the day remains to be seen (could do anything in truth) but I'm happy to play in hope.

Selections from Doncaster:

2.25 - Right Touch - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)
3.35 - Giant Spark - 1pt @ 16/1 (General)

x PyRo

Nothing of note happened for us at Doncaster on Sunday. Right Touch ran well as expected to grab a place but couldn't close it out quickly enough to threaten the victor. There's a win coming his way in the not too distant future and he won't be fazed by a drop back in trip whilst the weather is bad. Giant Spark was the other selection and ran a nothing race, although the market was hardly enthusiastic about his chances of coming back to form. He'll get into a 0-80 next time and remains of interest when similarly priced.

The Apprentice Handicap (1.30) can go the way of Silent Echo, an unexposed son of Oasis Dream who cost his current connections 120,000gns after ending his three-year-old campaign with two wins and a rating of 91. On debut for Peter Hedger, he was unlucky not to get a proper run through when sixth behind Eljaddaaf and given that it was his first outing for nearly five months, we should see an even sharper version this time around. I'm certain there's more to emerge from the locker and he has a very good rider on board too.

Mountain Bell could prove hard to beat in the Marathon Final (2.00). Ralph Beckett's mare already has some solid efforts in the book, including a Listed win and Group 3 second, but based on her running style further improvement as a stayer is definitely possible. She ran an odd race when faced with this trip for the first time at Newcastle in December (didn't travel for large parts) but ultimately scored with something in hand. If she can stay in her comfort zone for longer, I think she's the one to beat and expect a big performance.

Selections from Lingfield:
1.30 - Silent Echo - 1.50pts @ 11/2 (General)
2.00 - Mountain Bell - 1.50pts @ 9/2 (General)

x PyRo

All has been quiet on the western front since All-Weather finals day - limited flat cards being on offer not helping matters. I didn't bother with the Craven meeting at Newmarket for the simple reason that it's not one of my better punting tracks, although I have managed to get plenty of horses to take forward from it. Weather permitting, things should liven up over the coming weeks and hopefully a lot of winners will be found! Losing runs will undoubtedly happen but I'm confident the positive spells will outweigh the negatives.

Ruth Carr is a fantastic trainer given what she has to work with and Katheefa is another of her cheap purchases who could make hay this year. The 4-year-old son of Street Cry didn't achieve much other than a weak maiden win when trained by Charlie Hills but ran an encouraging race second time up for this yard at Southwell nine days ago, tanking into the straight before failing to quicken up afterwards. Now back on turf over a faster six-furlongs, he looks overpriced at 16/1. Win or lose, I'll follow him for a while.

Taqdeer makes plenty of appeal in the Spring Cup (3.45) having shaped reasonably well in the Lincoln consolation at Doncaster last month. That was the 5-year-old's first outing in no less than 692 days and despite being fancied in the betting (sent off 7/2 fav), the subsequent impression was that he'd come on for it. Jim Crowley was far from forceful in the saddle either and with fitness on his side and a sounder surface to travel over, hopefully we'll get to see a step forward. I think his mark of 95 is very, very workable.

Thirsk:
2.30 - Katheefa - 1.50pts @ 16/1 (General)

Newbury:
3.45 - Taqdeer - 1.50pts @ 7/1 (General)

zimmermania

x PyRo wrote: »

All has been quiet on the western front since All-Weather finals day - limited flat cards being on offer not helping matters. I didn't bother with the Craven meeting at Newmarket for the simple reason that it's not one of my better punting tracks, although I have managed to get plenty of horses to take forward from it. Weather permitting, things should liven up over the coming weeks and hopefully a lot of winners will be found! Losing runs will undoubtedly happen but I'm confident the positive spells will outweigh the negatives.

Ruth Carr is a fantastic trainer given what she has to work with and Katheefa is another of her cheap purchases who could make hay this year. The 4-year-old son of Street Cry didn't achieve much other than a weak maiden win when trained by Charlie Hills but ran an encouraging race second time up for this yard at Southwell nine days ago, tanking into the straight before failing to quicken up afterwards. Now back on turf over a faster six-furlongs, he looks overpriced at 16/1. Win or lose, I'll follow him for a while.

Taqdeer makes plenty of appeal in the Spring Cup (3.45) having shaped reasonably well in the Lincoln consolation at Doncaster last month. That was the 5-year-old's first outing in no less than 692 days and despite being fancied in the betting (sent off 7/2 fav), the subsequent impression was that he'd come on for it. Jim Crowley was far from forceful in the saddle either and with fitness on his side and a sounder surface to travel over, hopefully we'll get to see a step forward. I think his mark of 95 is very, very workable.

Thirsk:
2.30 - Katheefa - 1.50pts @ 16/1 (General)

Newbury:
3.45 - Taqdeer - 1.50pts @ 7/1 (General)

Well done on getting a well backed winner.

x PyRo

Saturday provided a nice return to action with Taqdeer (1.50pts @ 7/1) landing the Spring Cup at Newbury and I was super impressed with how he closed off that race. The handicapper has subsequently put him up 5lbs to a mark of 100 and that is still very workable, especially with the promise of more improvement to come at 10f. My other fancy, Katheefa, was backed from 16/1 into 8/1 but that was about as good as it got. He ran terribly and tailed off. Maybe faster ground will prove to be ideal on turf... maybe.

Compas Scoobie is the first of today's bets, lining up in the opener at Epsom. It's pretty obvious that he needs a pace collapse in order to come out on top but that's entirely possible here with a few speedy sorts in attendance. The horse himself is yet to win since joining up with Stuart Williams over the winter but has performed well more often than not and on his sole visit to this track, he ran a race of promise despite being stuck out on the wing. That's never optimal and from a favourable draw, a big run should be forthcoming.

Andrew Balding's yard aren't exactly flying yet but Lorelina could be a contender in the mile-and-a-half handicap. She has no problem in handling this unique track, with form figures reading 1-1-4-3-2, and I'm interested to see how she'll perform at this distance (second try beyond 10f). On more than one occasion the mare has shaped as if it can bring about improvement and her dam stayed well enough on the level, albeit in a more mediocre grade. Anyway, double-figured prices are worth chancing based on my book.

Epsom:
2.10 - Compas Scoobie - 1.50pts @ 11/1 (General)
3.20 - Lorelina - 1pt @ 10/1 (General)

x PyRo

Nothing of note happened on our last punting day with both horses out of the frame. Compas Scoobie didn't have the best of luck in the 5f handicap at Epsom and would have finished much closer had things went his way. He still appeals as the sort to be of interest on a downhill track and I'll be keeping an eye on where connections are aiming him next; although they haven't entered him in the Dash, which is disappointing. The other selection was Lorelina and she was punted from 10/1 into 6's, before ultimately running like a drain. I'm not sure but maybe softer ground is a requirement when tackling higher grades. Anyhow, on we go...

2:15 Ascot - Twin Star - 1pt @ 20/1 (General)

Put a gun to my head and I'd probably say that Thundering Blue comes out on top here but, whilst his run style suggests stamina prowess isn't a problem, he's yet to race over a trip this far and at the prices the percentage call is to oppose. At 20/1+, Twin Star is preferred and should relish the return to 1m 4f having clearly found the extended 1m 1f too sharp when third of 6 on his seasonal return at Wolverhampton ten days ago (only third start for this yard; connections paid lofty £260k for him in June).

On the face of it, the figure achieved wasn't much more than his mark of 95 but he was the first off the bridle and hung right, yet still finished powerfully in the straight when stamina kicked in. The two horses who finished in-front were well-bred Godolphin representatives ahead of their marks and with it being the selection's first spin for 248 days, you'd have to feel he'll come on for it physically as well (yard's runners are needing a spin). Anyway, he's interesting and I've seen worse 20/1 shots lurking around today.

2:40 Nottingham - Arzaak - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)

Arzaak doesn't find winning easy, as his 2-25 record shows, but he has a further eight seconds on the slate and is generally more reliable than a lot of sprinters. Of course, he ended up suffering as a result of last season's consistency and went off the boil after a three-month break, but I wouldn't judge him too harshly on his Newmarket run last time out when the grade, ground and track combination may have contributed to the resulting eight-length defeat he suffered (the furthest he has ever been beaten).

Returning to fast ground should see that put right and the sole time that Chris Dwyer let him rip at this C&D, he finished second on good-to-firm to a useful sprinter in Carlton Frankie. Coming back here is certainly no negative and David Allan is booked for the only the second time; the pair won at Catterick the race following that C&D second. It's interesting regardless and based on my book, any double-figured price is worth taking. This is a wide-open affair but Arzaak should be in there pitching for the win come the business end.

4:00 Ascot - Escobar - 1.50pts @ 16/1 (General)

The Victoria Cup has been a lucky race for me in times gone by and Escobar is where this year's pin has landed despite obvious risks being attached to the horse. In his early days with Hugo Palmer, there was talk of Group 1 expeditions being on the agenda and after two wins from his opening two racecourse outings, it was easy to see why. Afterwards, however, his form fell off a cliff and that's the reason why he has gone from a rating of 106 to 97 in the space of three or four runs last term.

Being confident of a revival is impossible but encouragement can be taken from the fact that his best run of 2017 came when fresh on top of fast ground at Sandown last May and it might be that this is the right time to catch the horse. It will be his first appearance for David O'Meara, who is an excellent target trainer, and the whole "change of scenery" angle could also come into play. I think he has the attributes to excel over the straight 7f at Ascot and with luck when it comes to the draw and all that, a big run could be forthcoming.

5:10 Ascot - Red Tycoon - 1.50pts @ 16/1 (General)

Red Tycoon doesn't take an excessive amount of explaining, despite a reasonably big price being on offer. This time twelve months ago, he finished second in today's race behind runaway winner Robero and now back at the track for the first time since, a big run is expected. The 6-year-old showed he's in fine fettle when scoring at Lingfield, value for more than the three-quarters-of-a-length margin, and it's easy to forgive his latest effort when the race-pace on offer simply wasn't strong enough to yield a repeat performance.

A big field on a straight track being combined with fast ground and a solid gallop throughout can help to see him to best effect and it's also worth noting that he's 3lbs lower than last year's renewal of this race. That's a huge positive for obvious reason and I don't see him as any lesser a talent this time around, he's just lucky the handicapper was lenient in dropping his turf rating in line with his All-Weather figure when a few poor runs were produced over the winter period. 16/1? Thank you very much, win or lose!

stingerro

Ive just logged in here for the first time since November...and now I see that for majority if this time Ive missed log like this. I know Im super late... but its great to see you back here after all this years.

x PyRo

Cheers bud, appreciate the message. Unfortunately flat out with life/work so haven't got much time on my hands lately but hoping to have plenty of bets out for Royal Ascot and then see where we go from there. A few nice winners wouldn't go astray!!