Brexit discussion thread III

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

When is the Maybot's speech?

1330 I saw on the Guardian

Sam Russell

Hurrache wrote: »

Spitting Image was the main instigator there, his puppet was literally grey.

The JM puppet wore his grey underpants outside his grey trousers a la Superman.

Spitting image was very damaging to politicians at the time (if you wish to see it that way) and would pop the Brexit bubble if it was on now. Scrap Saturday, Frank Hall's Pictorial Weekly, and That was The Week that was- all inflicted damage to the pompous politicians.

Pity the equivalent is not produced now - biting satire is needed - never more so than now.

flatty

"wasting time trying to keep a friend that hates us."

This is one sided, inflammatory, and untrue. I have loads of English friends, many of whom have been genuinely upset that we might be leaving because of brexit. The vote may be one of ignorance, but despite, as many have said, a drip feed of 40 years of of anti eu rhetoric followed latterly by a tsunami of lies, with the fast majority of the oligarchy that is the print media spinning against the eu 24/7, seventeen million people voted to remain.

First Up

Skedaddle wrote: »

I'd actually argue that part of the problem is that the EU, certainly in terms of how it's presented to the UK, has really not communicated any vision of what it does. The story of the EU in the UK is told by British right wing politicians and the tabloid media.

The result of that has been the EU is generally not understood at all. Most people, including politicians and journalists over there, seem to have no real idea of what it does.

The EU is a union of sovereign nations, each of which decided for itself to join. It is not "the EU's" responsibility to persuade or coerce any member state to stay. If a country can't work out the benefits for itself, that's its own business and it can enjoy the consequences.

The member states will meanwhile agree among themselves how to continue in their mutual interests.

Leroy42

flatty wrote: »

"wasting time trying to keep a friend that hates us."

This is one sided, inflammatory, and untrue. I have loads of English friends, many of whom have been genuinely upset that we might be leaving because of brexit. The vote may be one of ignorance, but despite, as many have said, a drip feed of 40 years of of anti eu rhetoric followed latterly by a tsunami of lies, with the fast majority of the oligarchy that is the print media spinning against the eu 24/7, seventeen million people voted to remain.

Respect democracy! That's is the line. The country voted and decided to leave the EU, and since then have basically cast the EU as evil.

I'm not saying that everyone of them hates the EU, but overall, the majority do.

But yes, I accept that it is a bit OTT, I was trying to get the point across that they want out and no amount of explaining that things might be better if they stay will change that.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

"wasting time trying to keep a friend that hates us."

This is one sided, inflammatory, and untrue. I have loads of English friends, many of whom have been genuinely upset that we might be leaving because of brexit. The vote may be one of ignorance, but despite, as many have said, a drip feed of 40 years of of anti eu rhetoric followed latterly by a tsunami of lies, with the fast majority of the oligarchy that is the print media spinning against the eu 24/7, seventeen million people voted to remain.

Respect democracy! That's is the line. The country voted and decided to leave the EU, and since then have basically cast the EU as evil.

I'm not saying that everyone of them hates the EU, but overall, the majority do.

But yes, I accept that it is a bit OTT, I was trying to get the point across that they want out and no amount of explaining that things might be better if they stay will change that.

Nobody, especially "the EU" is expending any energy on trying to get them to stay. The EU Commission, with the unanimous support of the member states, is a divorce court, not a marriage counsellor.

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Nobody, especially "the EU" is expending any energy on trying to get them to stay. The EU Commission, with the unanimous support of the member states, is a divorce court, not a marriage counsellor.

Well, they have spent countless hours and countless amounts of money on negotiations, planning, compiling reports, having debates etc. How much time was expended on Phase 1 and the recent draft proposals?

This at a time when we face serious concerns from China, US, Russia and internally with continued youth unemployment, issues with Poland etc.

And for what? It is clear, whether it reflects the true feelings of the country, that the hard Brexiteers hold sway, so much so that the Foreign Secretary is comparing NI/ROI to London Boroughs and another government minister claiming that even if a NI border is required they won't bother policing it.

Lemming

Skedaddle wrote: »

Maybe, but you will also get a huge and probably very aggressive pushback from the Brexiteers and others who have a parallel ideology. They will fight tooth and nail (and dirty) to ensure they get their way. The remain / cancel Brexit side will argue with logic and facts, which will get them nowhere.

I saw a quote the other day by Aaron Banks, cited as a tweet in relation to a HoC committee hearing where he said Brexit "was a war", which he and his deluded cohorts won. The implication to be read from that quote is "to win by any and all means necessary" and shows you the mindset involved.

I have quite a bit of contact with parts of Yorkshire and the Northeast and no amount of argument by John Major or the business lobby is going to shift them. They either feel they've nothing to lose or, they're so dogmatically wedded to the idea of Brexit that they will simply not back down.

Living in Yorkshire, I would concur with the above; I know (and work with) a few otherwise intelligent folk who freely admit that Brexit will be an unmitigated sh1tshow quite simply "don't care, I just want out" all the while acknowledging that their view is completely irrational.

J Mysterio

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Question Time was quite interesting really and confirms for me where this is headed: the abyss of a hard no deal Brexit. Ken Clarke spoke oceans of sense but you could clearly see faces in the audience glazing over to his substantial points. The worst aspect is that young remainers have clearly had the fight beaten out of them in staunch leave areas and just want the thing done and over with - this is made palatable by dual talk of 'respecting democracy' and 'people voted for independence, details be damned'.

I completely agree that the forces pushing this along see it as an opportunity to achieve a fundamental dismantling of the British economy and big public sector institutions. By the time the people realise that in terms of their own day to day impacts it will be way too late to do anything about it. Britain has a very ugly ten year's of political recrimination and unrest ahead of it.

The takeaway from our (the EU) perspective is to give them nothing. Let it happen, let them crash out and get burned and there may be a possibility that they come back cap in hand within a ten year period. Their political situation is so divided and toxic that there is no ability to achieve any sort of workable agreeable solution. In the Irish context specifically, we'll just have to weather the storm.

Pretty much agree 100%.

If Theresa has nothing new to say today, she really will have to be told where to go.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Apprentice winner. *facepalm*

And a Blue Peter presenter.

I flicked across and yer man was going on about fossil fuel is bad for this beautiful earth. So I gave up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43229297

National Grid has said its first "gas deficit warning" for eight years will remain in place overnight.

The power operator issued the warning earlier, saying it may not have enough gas to meet demand due to the current cold snap gripping the UK.

...
First gas-fired power stations will be asked to scale down gas use, followed by large industrial and business users.

I've been saying for a while that the UK has power capacity issues on the horizon. Too many eggs in the Nuclear basket, "too big to fail", and depending on the Nuclear Industry to deliver "on time , on budget". And potential issues about interconnectors and gas due to Brexit, not in the actual connections, but in pricing and security of supply perhaps.

Skedaddle

First Up wrote: »

The EU is a union of sovereign nations, each of which decided for itself to join. It is not "the EU's" responsibility to persuade or coerce any member state to stay. If a country can't work out the benefits for itself, that's its own business and it can enjoy the consequences.

The member states will meanwhile agree among themselves how to continue in their mutual interests.

It is in the EU and its members' interests to explain and communicate what it actually does as opposed to allowing that message to be dominated entirely by people who just use it as a political punch bag for about 40 years.

It also moved into being more than just a trade bloc. It has a directly elected parliament. It has policies and so on.

It's a hybrid between an intergovernmental organisation and supranational government. So, it absolutely should have an ability to communicate what it's doing, mostly to ensure that there's public engagement, feedback and accountability.

kingchess

The fantastic deals that Trump and the UK reckon are to be signed in the future does not seem to include Steel,

Skedaddle

kingchess wrote: »

The fantastic deals that Trump and the UK reckon are to be signed in the future does not seem to include Steel,

That'll be an interesting one give that the current US administration is highly protectionist and I suspect the UK is grossly overestimating the American domestic political value (which is all that matters) of the 'special relationship' they jabber on about endlessly in London and that I'm not sure very many Americans are remotely aware of at all.

murphaph

There's only one place you'd want to be during a trade war instigated by the USA.... firmly inside the single market where we can retaliate in kind.

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty much agree 100%.

If Theresa has nothing new to say today, she really will have to be told where to go.

Theresa May isn't really the problem. Aside from fumbling the ball when facing the open goal she engineered last year, she's not done much wrong. Her task is to secure a Brexit deal that will appease the Jacob Rees-Moggs and the Nicky Morgans of her party and this is something which is frankly impossible, especially with Boris Johnson spouting all kinds of nonsense in a sad attempt to stay relevant. If she does go, who will replace her? Nobody I would prefer and definitely nobody who can secure the Brexit that the nation wants, whatever that is.

murphaph wrote: »

There's only one place you'd want to be during a trade war instigated by the USA.... firmly inside the single market where we can retaliate in kind.

As many Bombardier employees in Northern Ireland learned the hard way.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Nobody, especially "the EU" is expending any energy on trying to get them to stay. The EU Commission, with the unanimous support of the member states, is a divorce court, not a marriage counsellor.

Well, they have spent countless hours and countless amounts of money on negotiations, planning, compiling reports, having debates etc. How much time was expended on Phase 1 and the recent draft proposals?

This at a time when we face serious concerns from China, US, Russia and internally with continued youth unemployment, issues with Poland etc.

And for what? It is clear, whether it reflects the true feelings of the country, that the hard Brexiteers hold sway, so much so that the Foreign Secretary is comparing NI/ROI to London Boroughs and another government minister claiming that even if a NI border is required they won't bother policing it.

The work being put in by the EU is to manage their exit, not to persuade them to stay.

First Up

Skedaddle wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

The EU is a union of sovereign nations, each of which decided for itself to join. It is not "the EU's" responsibility to persuade or coerce any member state to stay. If a country can't work out the benefits for itself, that's its own business and it can enjoy the consequences.

The member states will meanwhile agree among themselves how to continue in their mutual interests.

It is in the EU and its members' interests to explain and communicate what it actually does as opposed to allowing that message to be dominated entirely by people who just use it as a political punch bag for about 40 years.

It also moved into being more than just a trade bloc. It has a directly elected parliament. It has policies and so on.

It's a hybrid between an intergovernmental organisation and supranational government. So, it absolutely should have an ability to communicate what it's doing, mostly to ensure that there's public engagement, feedback and accountability.

The EU communicates what it does very thoroughly for anyone prepared to look. But it does not replace or replicate the role of national governments (if it did, you can imagine the howls of outrage).

EU services are delivered through the institutions of the member states. "Its" policies are the collective view of the member states.

The attempts to portray it as a superpower bullying countries around are as pathetic as the rightwing nutters in the US patrolling their property in case the UN invades.

Water John

Interesting view from Robert Preston ITV

'ITV’s political editor Robert Peston says in a Facebook post that Theresa May’s speech might be coming too late. Here’s an extract.

The twin big fear that she - and the rest of us - will have is whether her plan has come too late to significantly influence the rest of the EU and has been shaped too much by what holds her cabinet and party together, rather than what EU leaders would see as a sensible starting point for talks.

In other words, the risk is that when EU leaders announce the negotiating guidelines for trade talks in just three weeks, these will reflect the Barnier/Tusk entente that - because of May’s red lines on the ECJ, migration, the right to negotiate third-party trade deals, and so on - the best the UK should get is a shallow and narrow free trade deal, modelled on Canada’s.' Quote Guardian Live.

Basically, she's late and the EU will set it all out in 3 weeks.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Theresa May isn't really the problem. Aside from fumbling the ball when facing the open goal she engineered last year, she's not done much wrong. Her task is to secure a Brexit deal that will appease the Jacob Rees-Moggs and the Nicky Morgans of her party and this is something which is frankly impossible, especially with Boris Johnson spouting all kinds of nonsense in a sad attempt to stay relevant. If she does go, who will replace her? Nobody I would prefer and definitely nobody who can secure the Brexit that the nation wants, whatever that is.



As many Bombardier employees in Northern Ireland learned the hard way.

Her task is to provide the leadership to the UK to ensure peace and prosperity, internal Tory fighting some come after that.

She has to deliver on the ref vote, 1st off. How she goes about that is really up to her. She went with the red lines, she went with allowing members of her cabinet to brief outside of the plan, she allowed JRM to take up a senior position without having any responsibility.

She rushed off to trigger Art 50 when it was obvious that the UK were not ready.

She signed the Phase 1 agreement, it seems for no other reason that to say she had achieved phase 1 as she has shown no inclination to adhere to it.

She opted to buy the votes of the DUP to keep herself in power, putting the UK position as neutral in NI (in as much as the UK can be) into serious question and followed that by allowing herself to be bullied by the DUP when she had 'agreed' a Phase 1 deal.

She will be remembered if things continue as is, as the worst PM in history. Lack of conviction, lack of leadership, lack of ability and unable to get a good deal for Britain.

Remember, that from the very beginning, May has stated that a no deal is better than a bad deal.

Water John

Only a small group were really advocating leaving the CU and SM and she gave in to them. A PM's first duty is, to lead the country, and she has failed.
Wishy washy, why can't we all be friends, is a bit late. The first task after a bruising ref was, to heal the wounds.

First Up

Agree she has been dismal but as Cameron caused the problem in the first place, he must be a competitor for the title of Worst Ever.

Water John

They're falling over each other, with ineptitude.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

Agree she has been dismal but as Cameron caused the problem in the first place, he must be a competitor for the title of Worst Ever.

There would be a lot of competition for that title.
Neville Chamberlain - Appeasement of Hitler.
Anthony Eden - Suez Crisis
Macmillan - backing Suez and the Profumo Affair
Heath - three day week
Thatcher - Poll tax and the miner's strike and the destruction of much of manufacturing, replacing it with the City of London Casino.
Cameron for calling the Brexit vote and then running for the hills.

Those are the recent examples. LLoyd George would be in there if you go further back.

However, TM is shaking up to get the gong.

Leroy42

From the guardian live feed: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/02/may-brexit-speech-theresa-may-to-use-her-brexit-speech-to-say-we-cant-have-everything-grayling-says-politics-live

But even if the rest of the EU accept that May is sincere, they know she is weak. They know there is a section of the Tory party that is implacably hostile to the European project. That faction saw a regulatory bonfire as Brexit’s primary purpose. Some fantasised about a great unravelling of the union as a happy side-effect. That hostility is not a secret and the EU cannot ignore it. They have followed British history enough to know which side tends to win tugs of war between Tory leaders and Eurosceptic backbenchers. They knew where power lies in that party.

Bascially, not withstanding that May will state that they want “deep and special partnership” with the EU, the EU know, as was definitively demonstrated by the Phase 1 debacle with the DUP, that May does not have the power to deliver on such a notion.

joeysoap

I accept that Question Time is a show and as such might not reflect the real position but Clarke was the oldest person and the Blue Peter guy was the youngest and he wanted everyone to ‘respect’ the vote. One young lady said she was too young to vote , would havevoted remain but is a leaver now. Why?
The message is simply not getting across in the same manner Farage, Bojo, JRM, are getting their message across.
I agree that the audiences eyes glazed over when Ken Clarke was talking ( though he might have stayed off Euratom). Give us back control is all they hear.

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

Basically, she's late and the EU will set it all out in 3 weeks.

The EU set it out months ago:

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Theresa May isn't really the problem. Aside from fumbling the ball when facing the open goal she engineered last year, she's not done much wrong. Her task is to secure a Brexit deal that will appease the Jacob Rees-Moggs and the Nicky Morgans of her party and this is something which is frankly impossible, especially with Boris Johnson spouting all kinds of nonsense in a sad attempt to stay relevant. If she does go, who will replace her? Nobody I would prefer and definitely nobody who can secure the Brexit that the nation wants, whatever that is.

May has been 'leading' this debacle for over two years. She has let her party completely lose the run of itself. She is weak, she needed to flatten the backbenchers and the rest but didnt have the steel to make the decisions that needed to be made.She made a fatal decision to call a GE and then went into government with the DUP. She has basically overseen an administration that has brought the government unto disrepute. Half the cabinet have been lying and misleading the public and their interlocutors for some time. She herself is not trustworthy - shes pretty much said she doesnt believe in Brexit, yet she is stumbling headlong into it, utterly aimless. She ia a disgrace.

embraer170

The spech has started....

BonnieSituation

Well this is a surprise. Oh wait...

J Mysterio

She say 'I would do nothing to harm the Union.'
Ok, why would the EU do anything the harm their Union?

Wake up May. Get with the ****ing program.

J Mysterio

Lame duck

embraer170

Not the most encouraging message on the Northern Irish border.
It is more of having the cake and eating the cake.

J Mysterio

Can we have an immediate GE? Corbyn VS Major

ArmaniJeanss

What time does her speech start, just showing an old speech on Sky News at the moment.

Thargor

Pure waffle like everything out of her mouth.

Water John

Am I hearing, basically, let's pretend we are different?

LuckyLloyd

I know this is a forum for robust and substantial comment, but I have no reaction to this speech other than that she is a pathetically weak politician not fit to hold power during an event of this magnitude.

J Mysterio

Its so hard to comprehend this is happening right now. It is so ridiculous.

Has nothing sunk in over two years?

She is spending the while speech basically saying why the EU is awesome, and how she wants to keep all the benefits.

It' a bit lile she is standing there with her fingers in her ears going 'Lalalalalalala'

embraer170

Bit of a Freudian slip.... "to achieve a hard border"

Professor Moriarty

Just right now she is cherry picking. Alignment here, no alignment there.

Is there a country in the world that she hasn't mentioned as an example? Norway, South Korea, Japan, Switzerland, Canada etc. ad nauseam. We are leaving the customs union but we want a frictionless border in Ireland. So we'll have a new customs union that's basically the same as the existing customs union.

J Mysterio

This will go down like a fart in an elevator. Relations are going to take an absolute nosedive all round from here.

I think the EU (us, and many others) will actually be offended by this speech - 'has she not listened to us at all'? 'What about the December Agreement'? 'What about the Withdrawal Agreement'.

Professor Moriarty

There we go. We will maintain excellent standards but we must become flexible.

Inquitus

What a complete load of wafflebollox, my own fault for expecting some realistic clarity.

Professor Moriarty

No passporting. But....more cherry picking.

Water John

She wants financial services agreement. She thinks this is a pressure, trump card, pointing out how EU companies have borrowings from London banks.
Her failure is the basic premise that the UK and EU are and will be about equal.

embraer170

It seems everything TM wants should reflect "the UK's unique starting point".

Has it really not hit them that their desire to leave the EU and dissolve the existing relationship gives them a weak starting point? It's like someone in a relationship walking out but still wanting to come home for some home cooked food, to snuggle up in bed, and get their clothes washed.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

She wants financial services agreement. She thinks this is a pressure, trump card, pointing out how EU companies have borrowings from London banks.
Her failure is the basic premise that the UK and EU are and will be about equal.

The corollary of that point is that the UK should fear default by the EU companies.

I keep thinking of a child writing to Santa. Dunno why.

Lemming

"We are all still Europeans".

Would this be a good time to remember the phrase coined by the same woman: "Citizens of nowhere"?

ArmaniJeanss

In fairness this speech is possibly the first to admit that there are serious specific issues - medicines board, aviation, chemicals, and suggesting associate membership. These issues generally been ignored up to now.

The 'hard border would be the EUs fault' is a pretty bad transparent lie though.

J Mysterio

Cutting questions from Laura Kuensberg.