Brexit discussion thread III

Skedaddle

This is part of the problem for everyone: nobody knows what the hell the UK Government is going to do and that's giving the sane part of the community: businesses, logistic operators, transport companies, aviation, the British customs systems, police, ports, facilities neighboring countries and so on absolutely no ability to plan ahead.

In the event of a seriously Hard Brexit, I think we've a 2008 style economic crash with global impact. We can only do so much to mitigate against that.

You couldn't make this stuff up.

We are only able to mitigate to a certain degree when we are faced with dealing with a totally irrational and unpredictable major trade partner. It's grossly unfair on all those impacted but we are where we are.

First Up

Really Interested wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Turkey's "special arrangements" are as part of the Customs Union, which the UK has ruled out.

It is “a” customs union as between Turkey and the EU. That CU does not cover certain products. It would I believe be more correct to call it a bilateral customs union.

Turkey's membership of the CU excludes food but it requires full compliance with the T&C of CU membership, including their terms of trade with other parts of the world. They accept those requirements as it opens the EU market to their very large automotive, light industry, textiles etc. industries.

If the UK thinks it can negotiate a bespoke CU without compliance with all the requirements (especially 3rd party trade arrangements), I wish them luck but would advise them to be ready to be disappointed.

Really Interested

First Up wrote: »

Turkey's membership of the CU excludes food but it requires full compliance with the T&C of CU membership, including their terms of trade with other parts of the world. They accept those requirements as it opens the EU market to their very large automotive, light industry, textiles etc. industries.

If the UK thinks it can negotiate a bespoke CU without compliance with all the requirements (especially 3rd party trade arrangements), I wish them luck but would advise them to be ready to be disappointed.

That’s what they want even labour want a red velvet cake with frosting and cherries and eat it.

The EU Turkey CU also excludes services and and finance.

First Up

Really Interested wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's in our best interests to begin that process asap anyway. We shouldn't be dependent on Britain going forward no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with.

I believe there is a new route cork to Spain and also expansion on the Dublin France route from this year.

Would not be surprised if main selling point is driver rest times, anyone involved in such haulage on here who can give info.

Yes, two new vessels and two new routes. Irish Ferries will sail to France every day from Dublin or Rosslare and Brittany Ferries have a direct service from Cork to Spain starting and an additional service to France. You also have Stena servicing France.

Leroy42

Really Interested wrote: »

That’s what they want even labour want a red velvet cake with frosting and cherries and eat it.

The EU Turkey CU also excludes services and and finance.

Yes, my point is that was the essence of the speech. May has made it look like UK are willing to bend, to make it work, but the EU are not negotiating but rather sticking to principles.

I'm not saying that the EU are not perfectly entitled, or even correct, to follow this path, but rather making my view of the point of the speech was to position May as the negotiator against the evil and unlisenting EU.

IMO, it is simply an election ploy to further drive the feeling that anything bad is due to the EU, and that May was a hero to even get what she does

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No more comedy videos and other links please.

Really Interested

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, my point is that was the essence of the speech. May has made it look like UK are willing to bend, to make it work, but the EU are not negotiating but rather sticking to principles.

I'm not saying that the EU are not perfectly entitled, or even correct, to follow this path, but rather making my view of the point of the speech was to position May as the negotiator against the evil and unlisenting EU.

IMO, it is simply an election ploy to further drive the feeling that anything bad is due to the EU, and that May was a hero to even get what she does

You may be right that is the purpose but the EU27 will not give that which they will not give to any one of its members.

Tropheus

Is it any wonder the UK is the way it is with a press that's able to publish shoite like this. The big bad EU is now on its knees. The rest of Europe is taking Brexit Britain's lead. Nothing could be further form the truth.

Skedaddle

Does that count as a comedy link ?

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, my point is that was the essence of the speech. May has made it look like UK are willing to bend, to make it work, but the EU are not negotiating but rather sticking to principles.

I'm not saying that the EU are not perfectly entitled, or even correct, to follow this path, but rather making my view of the point of the speech was to position May as the negotiator against the evil and unlisenting EU.

IMO, it is simply an election ploy to further drive the feeling that anything bad is due to the EU, and that May was a hero to even get what she does

The EU is to publish its negotiating guidelines tomorrow. They will be succinct and in essence be a rejection of May's letter to Santa last week.

Professor Moriarty

Tropheus wrote: »

Is it any wonder the UK is the way it is with a press that's able to publish shoite like this. The big bad EU is now on its knees. The rest of Europe is taking Brexit Britain's lead. Nothing could be further form the truth.

Do they really think that Britain gains if Europe reverts to a disparate collection of nation states?

wes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do they really think that Britain gains if Europe reverts to a disparate collection of nation states?

Its straight forward irrational hatred and has been the case for years at this point. The British media lost the run of themselves years ago. Europe before the EU, caused 2 of the worst wars in human history. Its amazing that so many wish to risk that kind of madness all over again, yet here we are.

Really Interested

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do they really think that Britain gains if Europe reverts to a disparate collection of nation states?

Of course they do, Bo Jo thinks he is Churchill reborn, he will fight the Nasty EU army and win the Third World War and a grateful nation shal make him a duke as he was proved right all along.

Skedaddle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do they really think that Britain gains if Europe reverts to a disparate collection of nation states?

I don't think they thought that far ahead. They have an impenetrable bubble at their newsroom. It's right next to the echo chamber.

Professor Moriarty

Really Interested wrote: »

Of course they do, Bo Jo thinks he is Churchill reborn, he will fight the Nasty EU army and win the Third World War and a grateful nation shal make him a duke as he was proved right all along.

His behaviour and thoughts certainly indicate an underlying grandiosity. Will he be known as The Grand Old Duke of York?

trellheim

Rosslare-Cherbourg is 18 hours. Dublin- Calais is 10 hours via Britain.

Even at that, is there sufficient infrastructure in place to cope with far greater commercial traffic from Dublin to Rosslare? Does Rosslare port have the capacity for much more commercial traffic? Presently, 8 times more truck traffic leaves Dublin than Rosslare.

And is planned for far less journey time end-to-end ; A warehouse in Warrington taking say ferry 3 hours+ 2 hours from Hoyhead vs same in Rennes or Caan with a 2 hours trip

thats 5 hoursvs 20 hours

18 hours + 2 hours thats your 8 times truck traffic tied up for 4 times as long ( not counting the return journey which is proportional at a bare minimum even assuming the capacity can be met )

You can't make the containers larger, you can't have the drivers that long on a tacho so you need multiple crews and you cant have the drivers towing three containers so straight away you need multiples of staff and trucks so it cant work as it does at the moment

Skedaddle

Cork to Roscoff is 12 hours and you're exiting onto pretty decent and free flowing roads bypassing most of the busy areas in NE France's ports. You can hit the road and get en route to whoever you're headed picking routes away from the NE if you're heading into Germany for example.

With good route planning I can't really see how it's that long.

There are a lot of alternative motorway routes into Benelux and Germany.

The issue is having good ships that are capable of a fast crossing like that. At present the Pont Aven is the only one on that route and it's a very large, luxury cruise ferry.

You'd need some fast and more basic ferries to be brought on from anywhere they can be leased for now.

Professor Moriarty

Skedaddle wrote: »

Cork to Roscoff is 12 hours.

There's a couple of problems with that, though. It's a 12 hours crossing, but you also have to factor in 3 hours travel time from Dublin to Ringaskiddy. In addition, 20 times more trucks leave Dublin port than Ringaskiddy so the infrastructure simply isn't there.

Skedaddle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a few problems with that, though. It's usually a 12 hours crossing, but you also have to factor in 3 hours travel time from Dublin to Ringaskiddy. In addition, 20 times more trucks leave Dublin port than Ringaskiddy so the infrastructure simply isn't there.

Well it's a passenger ferry terminal. Cork is more of a container shipping centre than ro-ro.

You could run similar times from Rosslair and the facilities for ro-ro aren't THAT complex to be fair. You're not talking airport like stuff.

Professor Moriarty

Skedaddle wrote: »

Well it's a passenger ferry terminal. Cork is more of a container shipping centre than ro-ro.

You could run similar times from Rosslair and the facilities for ro-ro aren't THAT complex to be fair. You're not talking airport like stuff.

Is the access infrastructure and facilities in Rosslare capable of taking such huge increases?

Water John

I thought the EU stuff wasn't due for 2/3 weeks?
TM bought a very short window, so. Barnier et al are not in any way concerned as to how they are perceived in the UK, by the press, politicians or people. Their concern rests with the 27 and how and Uk talks would be seen by them.
Very different audience.

Skedaddle

One solution may be an absolute and concrete guarantee of allowing Irish in/out sealed fright across the UK, on specific road routes and out without customs clearances at all.

Perhaps even with a specific Irish sealed fright lane at key ports.

That could be put into any UK deal.

If it's a crash out without a deal however, we better be getting those southern ports and those Breton ports ready to roll!

trellheim

The truck have to get to Rosslare too; straight away you have to nearly reserve one lane of the N11 in both directions and around the M50 as it becomes the main supply line for the country ( well Dublin anyway but you take my point )

Water John

Problem is Davis will see that, as a bargaining chip, not a goodwill gesture.
I would give him, diddly squat.

Skedaddle

The trucks already go around the M50 as they're fed straight onto the M1 as it is.

They don't just appear in Dublin port and then get to distribution nodes and warehouses and other parts of the country by magic. They go around the M50 to all sorts of destinations around Dublin and onto the motorway network for destinations elsewhere.

The M11 would be busier.

Also remember it only needs to be time sensitive fright. Dublin port could cope with a lot of stuff that isn't fresh food. A lot of items going in and out aren't perishable anyway.

Water John

It's the same number of loads, in and out of the country per day, as at present, no matter where they are going!!!

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

I thought the EU stuff wasn't due for 2/3 weeks?
TM bought a very short window, so. Barnier et al are not in any way concerned as to how they are perceived in the UK, by the press, politicians or people. Their concern rests with the 27 and how and Uk talks would be seen by them.
Very different audience.

Article here on the EU's announcement tomorrow. From the article:

The EU will keep its draft guidelines for a post-Brexit trade deal as short and general as possible, the Guardian understands, in order to force Theresa May to explain what the UK wants and leaving the door open for a British shift on the customs union and single market.
The publication of the EU’s draft guidelines on Tuesday will be a stark moment for the prime minister, as it is made clear that a whole range of proposals made by May in her Mansion House speech on Friday are to be rejected.

Water John

There is only one word for that Prof, and that is, Ouch.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The publication of the EU’s draft guidelines on Tuesday will be a stark moment for the prime minister, as it is made clear that a whole range of proposals made by May in her Mansion House speech on Friday are to be rejected.

May knew this very well, the whole speech was "Cake!" knowing that the EU will respond with "No cake!" and she can blame them for the lack of cake in the UK forevermore.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May knew this very well, the whole speech was "Cake!" knowing that the EU will respond with "No cake!" and she can blame them for the lack of cake in the UK forevermore.

A case of not having your cake and not eating it.

Vronsky

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's a pity you stopped reading after only three lines as it goes on to explain, in reasonable and accessible depth, the various issues regarding transport of goods to Europe.

The timings were supplied by Politico Resarch and are supported by the Head of The Irish Road Haulage Association who should, hopefully, know what she's talking about. Amongst others, interesting contributions too from Revenue, the CSO and the Irish Maritime Development Office. None of these contributors are very optimistic in the context of a hard Brexit. IMO even more so if the hard Brexit is acrimonious as we could be dependent on the kindness of strangers or even hostile competitors.

You'd have to take the input of the haulage association in the context of them protecting their business. At the moment, most fresh produce is put on roro ferries and accesses the continent via the UK land bridge. Brexit will change that and will probably lead to the containerisation of most food products and to be shipped off via Cork, Rosslare. Irish hauliers may well be reduced to a domestic delivery service.
That is the threat they see.

mickoneill31

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/uk-us-open-skies-talks-hit-brexit-turbulence-1.3415499&ved=0ahUKEwjnx66dttXZAhXJLcAKHecZB98QqQIIJSgBMAA&usg=AOvVaw2EVJqRiiUk6PUrWftaciFY

The UK is negotiating with the US about flights to the US after Brexit.
And the deal they're being offered is worse than the one they had with the EU.
Who'd have thought it?

Professor Moriarty

Vronsky wrote: »

You'd have to take the input of the haulage association in the context of them protecting their business. At the moment, most fresh produce is put on roro ferries and accesses the continent via the UK land bridge. Brexit will change that and will probably lead to the containerisation of most food products and to be shipped off via Cork, Rosslare. Irish hauliers may well be reduced to a domestic delivery service.
That is the threat they see.

The article quoted takes its sources from more than the Haulage Association though. In terms of fresh produce every hour counts and you could be adding 5 hours minimum. Have Rosslare and Cork the access and capacity to provide what you say?

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is the access infrastructure and facilities in Rosslare capable of taking such huge increases?

The N25 is pretty empty down there but long term the remainder of the M11 and N25 would need upgrading at the very least.

Surely the port itself is mostly idle as there are bursts of activity before and after each sailing.

Adding more sailings in the quiet periods should be no problem.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

The N25 is pretty empty down there but long term the remainder of the M11 and N25 would need upgrading at the very least.

Surely the port itself is mostly idle as there are bursts of activity before and after each sailing.

Adding more sailings in the quiet periods should be no problem.

I don't know if it's capable or not. Certainly the container section seems to be upriver and have little capacity for further expansion/traffic. Maybe Ringaskiddy could be expanded but the head of Maritime Development said re the re-imposition of customs controls by Britain:
“We didn’t design our ferry terminals over the course of the last 20 years to handle that sort of build up of traffic,”

Vronsky

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The article quoted takes its sources from more than the Haulage Association though. In terms of fresh produce every hour counts and you could be adding 5 hours minimum. Have Rosslare and Cork the access and capacity to provide what you say?

Does it though? Where is the produce coming from and where is it going? The meat factories aren't inside the M50 now. If you are already road hauling fresh produce to northern Italy you have to wonder how critical 5hrs is in the supply chain.

The issue isn't time, but lack of capacity at the southern ports.

Call me Al

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do they really think that Britain gains if Europe reverts to a disparate collection of nation states?

It's really quite simple.
In a previous universe Britannia ruled. Now it doesn't. In the distorted narrative of many brexit supporters the EU are interfering with their ability to flex their muscles and restore their position in the world. They see themselves as a peer to China and the US, not 1/28th of the EU.

So yes I think there is a certain mentality that believes they win if the EU fails.

Enzokk

mickoneill31 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/uk-us-open-skies-talks-hit-brexit-turbulence-1.3415499&ved=0ahUKEwjnx66dttXZAhXJLcAKHecZB98QqQIIJSgBMAA&usg=AOvVaw2EVJqRiiUk6PUrWftaciFY

The UK is negotiating with the US about flights to the US after Brexit.
And the deal they're being offered is worse than the one they had with the EU.
Who'd have thought it?

If I read that correctly, the EU/US agreement at the moment will not just be changed to a UK/US agreement. The main problem for the UK carriers is that they are caught in between a very hard place and a place no-one wants to even wants to go.

The UK carriers will have to have a 50% ownership to fly to the EU, AFAIK. The problem is that a agreement with the US would need airlines to have a 50% UK ownership. So, square that circle, you need both 50% UK and EU (without the UK as a member) ownership to allow you to fly to both the EU and US.

Is that right?

Professor Moriarty

Vronsky wrote: »

Does it though? Where is the produce coming from and where is it going? The meat factories aren't inside the M50 now. If you are already road hauling fresh produce to northern Italy you have to wonder how critical 5hrs is in the supply chain.

The issue isn't time, but lack of capacity at the southern ports.

Well 5 hours is a factor but not a vital one probably. From what I'm reading, it does appear that the southern ports don't have the capacity so that 5 hours could become much longer.

trellheim

IAG is Spanish so for Aer Lingus its an Irish Company owned by a Spanish Company

BA Could transfer all its rights and planes to Aer Lingus lol but it wouldn't solve the Heathrow problem as you'd need 5th freedom rights granted by the Yanks which the EU could not give a toss about

First Up

Transit times via the UK are currently under Single Market rules, meaning zero administration. If there is a hard Brexit, cargo will be subject to customs procedures on entry to the UK and again on entry to France or wherever.

None of the Irish Sea ports in the UK are geared up for customs and we don't know what the congestion will be like at UK Channel ports, or at continental ports.

I would wait a bit before comparing travel times from Ireland to the Landbridge option post Brexit.

flutered

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's in our best interests to begin that process asap anyway. We shouldn't be dependent on Britain going forward no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with.

i read else where that dublin port has the land it requires, it says that planning permission can be put in later this year, so the will be ready to rock and roll

Professor Moriarty

flutered wrote: »

i read else where that dublin port has the land it requires, it says that planning permission can be put in later this year, so the will be ready to rock and roll

Yes., apparently, it can build custom checking booths and associated infrastructure quite easily. However, the increase in transit times and costs will remain, unfortunately.

flutered

murphaph wrote: »

I think the EU will have to step in and charter vessels to provide a sea bridge to/from Ireland. The good thing is that they have the whole world to scour for any such vessels/crews and they will offer good money IMO. Ireland will not be allowed to unduly suffer in this regard. It will Bea bit of a talisman for the EU.

i agree, ireland a net contributer will not be allowed to lie stranded, the eu cannot have the uk say that their exit caused excess damage to ireland

Professor Moriarty

flutered wrote: »

i agree, ireland a net contributer will not be allowed to lie stranded, the eu cannot have the uk say that their exit caused excess damage to ireland

Hopefully! If we are thrown under the bus by the EU we're a lost cause. Can't see it happening but you never know.

blanch152

trellheim wrote: »

The truck have to get to Rosslare too; straight away you have to nearly reserve one lane of the N11 in both directions and around the M50 as it becomes the main supply line for the country ( well Dublin anyway but you take my point )

The Eastern Bypass of Dublin, the Oilgate to Rosslare section of the N11, upgrade of N11 Ashford to the M50, etc. will all have to move up the priority list for capital expenditure.

The Derry route can be dropped as traffic will fall on that.

trellheim

trellheim wrote: »

IAG is Spanish so for Aer Lingus its an Irish Company owned by a Spanish Company

BA Could transfer all its rights and planes to Aer Lingus lol but it wouldn't solve the Heathrow problem as you'd need 5th freedom rights granted by the Yanks which the EU could not give a toss about

The ownership of the company is important - who and where the shareholders are, not just where the company is registered.

It wouldn't be as easy as that.

Ryanair are facing the same problem but Easy jet have it easier because the owner is British / Cypriot.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

flutered wrote: »

i agree, ireland a net contributer will not be allowed to lie stranded, the eu cannot have the uk say that their exit caused excess damage to ireland

Hopefully! If we are thrown under the bus by the EU we're a lost cause. Can't see it happening but you never know.

Not a hope in hell.

Sam Russell

Just a thought.

The seamless, technology based solution post Brexit fir NI could be implemented on the UK side.

NI remains within the CU ans SM for all matters required by the GFA, and safeguarding the NI and Irish economy, and so no border N/S.

Goods originating within NI and destined for GB are notified before dispatch and travel unhindered. Goods originating from Ireland likewise, providing they are covered and travel via NI. Goods originating from outside Ireland (rest of EU) are subject to inspection on arrival in GB, etc. Thus it complies with no hindrance to NI business.

Goods originating from GB destined for NI or Ireland are pre-declared and tariffs due are paid, subject to compliance with EU SM standards. Goods from outside of EU/GB are subject to the same but more inspection before transit.

Overall, that type of arrangement would comply with the N/S and E/W elements in the Phase One agreement.

Currently there are inspections of some things going from GB to NI, so nothing fundamental in inspection within the UK. Try taking a Bullock from Stranraer to Strabane - it gets checked on entry to NI.

Might work.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

Not a hope in hell.

There isn't a hope in hell the EU will pay for ferries. However, I doubt very much they will throw us under the bus or leave us economically stranded. That's my hope.