Brexit discussion thread III

First Up

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just a thought.

The seamless, technology based solution post Brexit fir NI could be implemented on the UK side.

NI remains within the CU ans SM for all matters required by the GFA, and safeguarding the NI and Irish economy, and so no border N/S.

Goods originating within NI and destined for GB are notified before dispatch and travel unhindered. Goods originating from Ireland likewise, providing they are covered and travel via NI. Goods originating from outside Ireland (rest of EU) are subject to inspection on arrival in GB, etc. Thus it complies with no hindrance to NI business.

Goods originating from GB destined for NI or Ireland are pre-declared and tariffs due are paid, subject to compliance with EU SM standards. Goods from outside of EU/GB are subject to the same but more inspection before transit.

Overall, that type of arrangement would comply with the N/S and E/W elements in the Phase One agreement.

Currently there are inspections of some things going from GB to NI, so nothing fundamental in inspection within the UK. Try taking a Bullock from Stranraer to Strabane - it gets checked on entry to NI.

Might work.

It could work technically but it still means that trade between Britain and NI is subject to oversight, which seems to be the bit that May rejected (and that the DUP would never agree to.)

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Goods originating from GB destined for NI or Ireland are pre-declared and tariffs due are paid, subject to compliance with EU SM standards. Goods from outside of EU/GB are subject to the same but more inspection before transit.

You are still making NI separate from GB which the UK doesn't want to do.

I don't follow your description fully what happens to goods coming from another part of the EU to here in Ireland? Are you proposing they get checked?

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell the EU will pay for ferries. However, I doubt very much they will throw us under the bus or leave us economically stranded. That's my hope.

They won't throw us under a bus but there isn't the remotest chance they will interfere with the commercial transport market. You don't think the islands of Malta or Cyprus would demand something similar? Or Greece which is dis-connected from the rest of the EU? Or EU countries shipping to Ireland?

We can look for practical help with things like port or border infrastructure but this is complete nonsense.

Water John

NI is separate already, in terms of agricultural goods, ref bullock above. Rev Ian Paisley Snr made sure of that as it was in the best interests of his constituents.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

You are still making NI separate from GB which the UK doesn't want to do.

I don't follow your description fully what happens to goods coming from another part of the EU to here in Ireland? Are you proposing they get checked?

No, there is no difference - EU goods are in free circulation in Ireland.

Only goods shipped through NI would be subject to checked on arrival in GB, if they originated from outside the island of Ireland, but it depends on the detail of the agreement, and there is no detail at the moment.

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just a thought.

The seamless, technology based solution post Brexit fir NI could be implemented on the UK side.

NI remains within the CU ans SM for all matters required by the GFA, and safeguarding the NI and Irish economy, and so no border N/S.

Goods originating within NI and destined for GB are notified before dispatch and travel unhindered. Goods originating from Ireland likewise, providing they are covered and travel via NI. Goods originating from outside Ireland (rest of EU) are subject to inspection on arrival in GB, etc. Thus it complies with no hindrance to NI business.

Goods originating from GB destined for NI or Ireland are pre-declared and tariffs due are paid, subject to compliance with EU SM standards. Goods from outside of EU/GB are subject to the same but more inspection before transit.

Overall, that type of arrangement would comply with the N/S and E/W elements in the Phase One agreement.

Currently there are inspections of some things going from GB to NI, so nothing fundamental in inspection within the UK. Try taking a Bullock from Stranraer to Strabane - it gets checked on entry to NI.

Might work.

That is a notion that has been raised.

But the DUP wont have it because despite all the claims that the border would be invisible the government knows its not really and they dont want to cut up The United Kingdom either.

It would send Theresa's conservative base into a frenzy...

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

The seamless, technology based solution post Brexit fir NI could be implemented on the UK side.

...

Might work.

This would be the (probably only) solution to the Irish Border paradox, and would allow the EU to agree to the UK's magical technological-but-yet-to-be-invented frictionless border. The EU can say "Grand: keep NI in the CU/SM for the time being, and as soon as you've demonstrated that the technology works on a notional border within your own jurisdiction, using the GB-NI Irish Sea border as a testing ground, we'll give the green light to place it on the NI-RoI border. But obviously we'll want to closely supervise what you're doing in the Irish Sea to make sure you're not cheating. Let us know how you get on, and don't forget to sign here --> "

No hard border on the Island of Ireland; GB okay to go it alone in the world. Tories happy that they can move on to meaningful trade negotiations; DUP mad as hell, but when are they ever otherwise ...

trellheim

Nigel Dodds

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXd_4Q2WkAgg2QZ.jpg:large

Missing the point completely that we and Brussels are at one on this ; if the UK could divide Ireland out from the EU on this then they would

( Note the PM of Luxembourg is over today to ensure we are on message , it was the Dutch fella last time ... gotta keep the spine straight you know lol ... .see Taoiseach's twitter )

Its the one thing they cant see how to get out of ( although I cant see how you solve Gibraltar either )

Sam Russell

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

That is a notion that has been raised.

But the DUP wont have it because despite all the claims that the border would be invisible the government knows its not really and they dont want to cut up The United Kingdom either.

It would send Theresa's conservative base into a frenzy...

The border would be frictionless and invisible. That is what they signed up to.
This achieves that.

The DUP wanted a solution that did not disadvantage NI business, and since goods originating with NI business, there would be no difference with current requirements. This achieves the no disadvantage to NI business.

There would be no difference for goods travelling from GB to NI except that the sender has to pre-declare them, and certify them as complying with SM standards. It would not be a border.

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

The border would be frictionless and invisible. That is what they signed up to.
This achieves that.

The DUP wanted a solution that did not disadvantage NI business, and since goods originating with NI business, there would be no difference with current requirements. This achieves the no disadvantage to NI business.

There would be no difference for goods travelling from GB to NI except that the sender has to pre-declare them, and certify them as complying with SM standards. It would not be a border.

and none of that matters to the image of the UK being forced to divide itself up for the EU.

That is what the conservatives will see and the Ukippers and the DUP

and they will scream bloody murder.

Sam Russell

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

and none of that matters to the image of the UK being forced to divide itself up for the EU.

That is what the conservatives will see and the Ukippers and the DUP

and they will scream bloody murder.

You missed out the Daily Mail and the Daily Express.

I'd give it a week before they drop it in favour of other red lines being dropped.

Capt'n Midnight

Ferry routes are already being upgraded.
giant-freight-ferry-fuels-fears-holyhead-port-could-be-bypassed-after-brexit Holyhead now has six times the traffic it had when there used to be customs checks so yeah there's that.

World's Largest Ro-Ro Freight Ferry Completes Maiden Voyage from Continental Europe to Dublin Port 74,000 gross tonnage and it's got 8Km of lanes. And there's two of them.


Here's another two super ferries in the pipeline too. The W B Yeats is getting it's superstructure sorted out and will have 3Km of lanes
https://afloat.ie/port-news/ferry-news/item/38236-new-irish-ferries-cruise-ferry-w-b-yeats-named-at-launch-event-in-germany


With TIR the delay will be screening people, drivers are people so no free movement.
TIR can be fast tracked to some extent by sending the trailers on their own. Irish driver drops trailer off at Dublin , a UK driver picks it up in Wales and drops it in Dover. And then an EU driver takes it on the last leg. Also means you don't have to pay for drivers time while on the Ferry.
This would require the UK to fast track customs though.

As for the Rosslare roads you aren't saving that much time since a ferry would be in Dublin Port in a few hours.

Skedaddle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell the EU will pay for ferries. However, I doubt very much they will throw us under the bus or leave us economically stranded. That's my hope.

Sure they could add it to the divorce bill...
It would be great news for Brittany too!

An Claidheamh

wes wrote: »

Its straight forward irrational hatred and has been the case for years at this point. The British media lost the run of themselves years ago. Europe before the EU, caused 2 of the worst wars in human history. Its amazing that so many wish to risk that kind of madness all over again, yet here we are.

Reading the comments of the politico.eu haulage article, on a site that I thought might have a more moderate/reasonable readership - the same nonsense

1) British nationalists pretending to care about Ireland's economy. Really just stupid people with poor educations. Oh and they're anti-Irish, always were.

2)Insisting Ireland "must" leave the EU.
They just "must". Why can't 'Eire' hate the foreigners like us?

3) Same historical and functional ignorance of Ireland and the Eu? Repeating lies.

4) And of course, Britain is being "bullied".

5) Britain is invincible. 'they need us more, we'll destroy their economies!' British exceptionalism

6) Finally, Britain has no sense of irony.
Unelected leaders, elites, empire, interfering in a country's territory - all levelled against the Eu - all descriptions of Britain.


At this stage it just would be better or at if there is no agreement or realism by October, that the EU and Ireland treat this as an economic war declared against us, hold a conference to replace British markets, spread London financial services around the continent where possible, invest in Port facilities for Ireland.

Also, the Irish government ought to announce their intention to join Schengen and hold a Border Poll and court Scotland to the Eu in the event of a hard border. (assuming their magic technology does not come to pass).

Time to take the kid gloves off.

Britain needs to be shown how ridiculous they're acting.

The Irish media eg. Kenny, RtÉ, etc seem to be afraid of pointing the obvious hypocrisies of the Brexit types in relation to Ireland as the ghost of the anti-Sinn Féin directives/censorship still remain.
They too are allowing the persecution complex from the Dup, Farage, Tories, etc.

Junkyard Tom

An Claidheamh wrote: »

The Irish government ought to announce their intention to ... hold a Border Poll

The Irish government can't do much about forcing a border poll but I'm fairly sure a crash-out Brexit would see London looking to save money quickly and getting rid of the north would save it several billion GBP a year.

I still think the UI supporters would lose the first border poll but would be fairly confident the second would pass comfortably.

The 18-to-44 age group vote for SF totals more than both the DUP/UUP vote combined.

Hurrache

An Claidheamh wrote: »

The Irish media eg. Kenny, RtÉ, etc seem to be afraid of pointing the obvious hypocrisies of the Brexit types in relation to Ireland as the ghost of the anti-Sinn Féin directives/censorship still remain.

Couldn't agree with that statement at all. Kenny is always pointing them as, as to do RTE, mostly via Tony Connelly. Newstalk, RTE and Today FM are unanimous in this.

eire4

wes wrote: »

Its straight forward irrational hatred and has been the case for years at this point. The British media lost the run of themselves years ago. Europe before the EU, caused 2 of the worst wars in human history. Its amazing that so many wish to risk that kind of madness all over again, yet here we are.

Very good point. For all the faults that the EU may or may not have overall for me it has been and is a positive and front and center in those positives is it has given us peace and considering what went on before the EU not just the 2 world wars but even before that that is a very impressive and laudable achievement.

briany

If a hard border does come into effect, I think there'll definitely be an upswing in dissident/paramilitary activity, but I don't think it'll ever become a Troubles pt. II. For that to happen, you need fresh blood coming into the relevant organisations, and for fresh blood to be coming in, you need young folk to be adequately disaffected to the point they'll pick up arms. Would a border alone do that? I think not. You'd need similar circumstances to what prompted the first Troubles where you had events like Bloody Sunday and a few decades of systematic oppression before that.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

If a hard border does come into effect, I think there'll definitely be an upswing in dissident/paramilitary activity, but I don't think it'll ever become a Troubles pt. II. For that to happen, you need fresh blood coming into the relevant organisations, and for fresh blood to be coming in, you need young folk to be adequately disaffected to the point they'll pick up arms. Would a border alone do that? I think not. You'd need similar circumstances to what prompted the first Troubles where you had events like Bloody Sunday and a few decades of systematic oppression before that.

This shıt can kick off easy. Some Nationalists go and damage border infrastructure, some Unionists get mouthy about it, there's a scrap. Someone gets badly hurt. Retaliation, escalation. Protests, riots.

Also, if the economy goes to ****, people wont be happy and will look for someone to blame.

trellheim

Sure half of Dublin Bus is built in Ballymena , Wrights build a shed load for TFL and a rake of the UK bus companies

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

This shıt can kick off easy. Some Nationalists go and damage border infrastructure, some Unionists get mouthy about it, there's a scrap. Someone gets badly hurt. Retaliation, escalation. Protests, riots.

Also, if the economy goes to ****, people wont be happy and will look for someone to blame.

There's already been adequate reason in NI in recent years to destabilise the Peace Process, whether it be re-routing certain parades or changing the frequency with which they fly the flag above Belfast city hall. Same logic applies where it led to protests which could have led to something bigger, but that didn't really happen.

My point is that for something like another iteration of the Troubles to happen, you do need that deep wellspring of anger. And also, very crucially, you need the perpetrators to be organised and supplied, both with personnel and the means to enact violence.

Bigus

briany wrote: »

There's already been adequate reason in NI in recent years to destabilise the Peace Process, whether it be re-routing certain parades or changing the frequency with which they fly the flag above Belfast city hall. Same logic applies where it led to protests which could have led to something bigger, but that didn't really happen.

My point is that for something like another iteration of the Troubles to happen, you do need that deep wellspring of anger. And also, very crucially, you need the perpetrators to be organised and supplied, both with personnel and the means to enact violence.

Hearing the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg pontificate , would get a lot of the oldtimer activists out of retirement.

J Mysterio

That's fair enough, but if NI is an economic wasteland due to Brexit, you can be sure there will be anger.

Stormont has shut up shop for what, 18 months? That would make you fairly angry. The deal put to the sword on granting of language rights?

Then if some start agitating for a United Ireland, others will see this as an existential threat, that would make them angry.

Ultimately, the point is that the peace is fragile, and if people don't show the GFA agreement and the Northern institutions any respect, it could unravel fairly sharpish.

CelticRambler

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The Irish government can't do much about forcing a border poll ...

No, they can't force it, but they could certainly arrange for a series of strategic leaks hinting at cabinet and RoI-EU discussions about the practicalities and financial implications of reintegrating the Six Counties. Get the UK tabloids talking about it and it'd be damn near impossible to stop that ball rolling ... :rolleyes:

briany wrote: »

If a hard border does come into effect, I think there'll definitely be an upswing in dissident/paramilitary activity, but I don't think it'll ever become a Troubles pt. II.

Neither do I. Chances are we're much more likely to see a UK-wide Miners' Strike/Brixton Riots type violence as the Brexit-voting heartland finally, finally, fiiiiiiinally figure out just how much of a lie they were sold. Then again, that'll probably take a few years to kick in, whereas any carry-on in NI would be fairly quick to get going - depending on exactly what happens on 29/03/19, of course.

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

That's fair enough, but if NI is an economic wasteland due to Brexit, you can be sure there will be anger.

Stormont has shut up shop for what, 18 months? That would make you fairly angry. The deal put to the sword on granting of language rights?

Then if some start agitating for a United Ireland, others will see this as an existential threat, that would make them angry.

Ultimately, the point is that the peace is fragile, and if people don't show the GFA agreement and the Northern institutions any respect, it could unravel fairly sharpish.

These would all be grounds for widespread protest. It might even be grounds for some rioting. Then again, Summer riots in the North have been a mainstay even in peace time.

Look at the background of the original Troubles - You had nearly 50 years of discrimination on employment and housing, pogroms in the 20s, suppression of a civil rights movement, shooting unarmed people in the streets. To add to that you had a lot of young people stuck there with nothing like the educational opportunities enjoyed today, and all their lives they had endured the injustices listed.

Today, NI's young folk have little to no first-hand experience of any of that hardship, and are much better educated. To get them to go back to all that would need a touch more than language rights gripes or even talk of a border poll which, depending on how Brexit goes, might be soberly discussed as the best thing for the island. To add to that, the old leaders of the paramilitaries have gotten even older, and we have no idea of even their capabilities to remobilise or resist MI5 infiltration.

steddyeddy

So the UK-US open skies talks have already seen Britain being dealt a worse hand due to Brexit. British airlines will have less access to US routes under new, lesser deal due to the UK's future absence from the single market. It's worth remembering that the worst has yet to happen.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80

Capt'n Midnight

Airbus warns it may need to stockpile parts against Brexit

"We spend £5bn a year on the UK supply chain... it is really important the parts don't get held up in warehouses."
...
She told the BBC's Today programme that the firm operated a "just in time" supply chain, which meant that even a three-hour delay at Dover, for example, would be "a critical issue".

Will it affect current production , probably not because they'll have time to prepare.

Will it affect future business ?
Oh yeah, when it comes to re-investing or awarding business to subcontractors, it'll be just that bit harder for UK firms in the future.

J Mysterio

I had no idea thia was happening today. Mary Lou, Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein representatives met Barnier and EU negotiators today.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-sinn-fein-mary-lou-mcdonald-irish-border-theresa-may-common-regulatory-area-a8240716.html

Capt'n Midnight

Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.

But the magic e-border will block any smugglers tempted by this.



I'm also sure that there's people in both The Revenue and HM Revenue & Customs who could tell you exactly how much our government could reduce taxes and duties on motor fuel in order to maximise total revenue.

The % revenue lost down here would be compensated by volume smuggled northwards. It's an undermining tactic that has zero direct cost down here. But means a sharp reduction in Government funding up there.

Obviously it's not likely , but it's an example of what could happen with a magic border.

trellheim

May briefed the Commons this evening, its not up on Hansard yet.

J Mysterio

Arlene and DUP meeting Barnier tomorrow.

First Up

J Mysterio wrote: »

Arlene and DUP meeting Barnier tomorrow.

Wouldn't you love to be there....

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

I had no idea thia was happening today. Mary Lou, Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein representatives met Barnier and EU negotiators today.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-sinn-fein-mary-lou-mcdonald-irish-border-theresa-may-common-regulatory-area-a8240716.html

There would be very little to be discussed as everyone is in agreement. Similarly, when Arlene meets Barnier, there will be very little to be discussed as nobody is in agreement.

WomanSkirtFan8

First Up wrote: »

Wouldn't you love to be there....

I'd say it'll be extremely interesting alright. This whole thing grows more and more farcical with each day that passed. Then again, I wouldn't have expected anything less from the likes of the Tories or the DUP for that matter.:cool:

steddyeddy

My opinion is shifting from this will be bad, but not that bad for Britain to thinking that Britain will no longer be a world power post Brexit.

Nody

steddyeddy wrote: »

My opinion is shifting from this will be bad, but not that bad for Britain to thinking that Britain will no longer be a world power post Brexit.

What makes you think they are a world power today? They have already squandered their soft power over the last decades with Blair aligning UK to USA at any cost for the second Iraq invasion, lack of proper diplomats as PMs etc. If you look at military actions France has taken more actions and got things done in Africa etc. while UK sat in Afghanistan with their best buddy USA pretending they are making a difference and that USA gave a damn about them.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

I had no idea thia was happening today. Mary Lou, Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein representatives met Barnier and EU negotiators today.

And they have all their paperwork with them too.


Its the little things :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

steddyeddy wrote: »

My opinion is shifting from this will be bad, but not that bad for Britain to thinking that Britain will no longer be a world power post Brexit.

Suez ?

Falklands was a huge gamble, and required a lot of US help, they used up the remaining hours on the Vulcan airframes. It'll be a while before they have the new carriers.


But soft power ?
Oil prices are dependent on Brent crude.
The UK has lots of money but we've seen here how fast capital can move when DIRT was introduced. The big boys high tailed it, locals just setup non-resident accounts.
A lot of tax havens are UK dependencies. If the US and EU gang up on them...

Capt'n Midnight

BBC NI have a new series - Friday 22:35 (repeat Thursday 8Pm )Soft Border Patrol

I haven't seen it yet but Episode 1 is "does a plank across a stream constitute an illegal border crossing?"

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

BBC NI have a new series - Friday 22:35 (repeat Thursday 8Pm )Soft Border Patrol

I haven't seen it yet but Episode 1 is "does a plank across a stream constitute an illegal border crossing?"

I'm not sure I like the look of that? Not sure it's appropriate to have a 'border comedy' right now. Looks goofy.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Looks goofy.

And Brexit doesn't ?

J Mysterio

These are disturbing and very telling comments from May today.

In the House of Commons on Monday, Ms May was asked by Labour MP Emma Reynolds for an example of a border between two countries that were not in a customs union where there were no checks on lorries carrying goods.

“There are many examples of different arrangements for customs around the rest of the world and indeed we are looking at those, including for example the border between the United States and Canada,” Ms May replied.

Brexit: Varadkar rejects May’s suggestion of US-Canada style border - Irish Times

J Mysterio

I'm pretty furious that May has flip flopped on the December Agreement. That deal was the ideal solution for Northern Ireland/ Ireland.

J Mysterio

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

I'd say it'll be extremely interesting alright. This whole thing grows more and more farcical with each day that passed. Then again, I wouldn't have expected anything less from the likes of the Tories or the DUP for that matter.:cool:

In an ideal world, Barnier might be able to talk some sense into them, but it's like taking blood from a stone.

The worst thing is that May has basically adopted the DUP message, having previously been quite happy to sign away NI.

Junkyard Tom

I still cling to the belief that there'll be a spectacular handbrake turn performed by the Brexit Bus just before they hurtle off the white cliffs of Dover.

Capt'n Midnight

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I still cling to the belief that there'll be a spectacular handbrake turn performed by the Brexit Bus just before they hurtle off the white cliffs of Dover.

That might be the plan,

but there's too many other people sabotaging the brakes to be sure.

trellheim

I'm pretty furious that May has flip flopped on the December Agreement. That deal was the ideal solution for Northern Ireland/ Ireland.

May seems to tell whoever she is talking to whatever they want to hear . This you may say is not uncommon from politicians to the electorate however I think we are running out of road rapidly to do this kind of thing; eventually the musical chairs will stop

briany

trellheim wrote: »

May seems to tell whoever she is talking to whatever they want to hear . This you may say is not uncommon from politicians to the electorate however I think we are running out of road rapidly to do this kind of thing; eventually the musical chairs will stop

It's not like the job of negotiating Brexit is going to go away. It's not one of those political issues you can deflect until everyone forgets about it. So what's the point in trying to buy yourself time if all you're doing is deferring the agony?

Peregrinus

briany wrote: »

It's not like the job of negotiating Brexit is going to go away. It's not one of those political issues you can deflect until everyone forgets about it. So what's the point in trying to buy yourself time if all you're doing is deferring the agony?

The thing is, May is still negotiating Brexit with the Tory party. Until those negotiations are resolved, she's not really in any position to do much serious negotiating with the EU. The EU have been unimpressed with what she came out with last week, but it wasn't really intended for their consumption.

But time, as you point out, marches on. So will it be too late for Teresa?

There is already some muttering in Brussels about the transitional period being extended beyond 31 December 2020, though nobody will talk about this out loud. From what I hear opinion on the EU side about an extension of the transitional period falls into three camps:

1. No, absolutely not. December 2020 will be four-and-a-half years after the Brexit referendum. If the British haven't come round to a workable soft Brexit in four-and-a-half years, there is no reason to think they ever will. At some point the boil has to be lanced. If we have to chose between a hard Brexit on 1 Jan 2021 and a couple more years of agony followed by a hard Brexit, we should choose the hard Brexit on 1 January 2021 and move on.

2. Possibly, but only if there is good reason to think that an extension will make the difference between a hard Brexit and something a little saner. If, for example, there has been a change of leadership/change of government in the UK, and the UK governments does seem to be working realistically towards an attainable objective.

3. Yes. It will have to be extended because, quite simply, the necessary preparations for to implement any final deal are not going to be completed by 1 January 2021. Plus, as long as there is any prospect of not having a hard Brexit we should give it every chance. The longer the UK is not fully out of the EU, the better the prospects of a final resolution which is not a hard Brexit.

Because the possibility of extending the transiational period is not being discussed openly, nobody in Brussels has to commit themselves to one position or another, and people can shift from one position to another in response to events without being accused of inconsistency or indecision. For what it's worth, my impression at the moment - and this is very much at second- and third-hand - is that position 1, no extension, is very much the dominant position for those dealing with Brexit from the EU side. But that could possibly change if the attitude of those addressing Brexit on the UK side changes.

Infini

briany wrote: »

It's not like the job of negotiating Brexit is going to go away. It's not one of those political issues you can deflect until everyone forgets about it. So what's the point in trying to buy yourself time if all you're doing is deferring the agony?

Because in a nutshell they're not really deflecting but are just grossly and outright incompetent.

Lets be clear here noone on this side is going to willingly allow a hard border. We arent going back to that after all the blood that was spilled over the years because of it.

Whats going to happen is this: The EU is basically gonna set all the terms while the UK flails about in a sea of idiocy and stupidity. It will be an EU take it or leave it arrangement because the UK is so mired in incompetency that they have absolutely no way or ability of negotiating anything. No matter what May says at this point the ONLY solution to not having a hard border and getting an agreement WILL be to keep NI inside the customs union. As much as the DUP complain and whinge the only workable customs approach that can work is at Irish Ports and Airports. The borders just too big to enforce and it was proven in the past not to work effectively. If the DUP tries to derail things they will be the first thrown under the bus.

At this point the agreement is basically a bill and conditions for withdrawal completely dictated by the EU not out of spite but cold hard facts. The UK will have 3 choices.

1) Total capitulation and acceptance of the EU's terms because of no other alternatives and no ability of the UK to draw up any workable alternatives. They wasted too much time and were all talk and no substance. They end up with an inferior arrangement on the EU's terms because of their own folly.
2) Anti-Brexit forces muster enough counter-force against the Brexiteer's utterly slating their sheer and utter incompetency and uselessness and force either a cancellation of the A50 notice and possible 2nd referendum to end this farce and contain what damage has been done by this failed excercise.
3) UK rejects the only agreement available and careers off the cliff. Britain suffers a serious economic downturn and possible recession/depression as a result. Many months of economic chaos ensue as things go tits up as they say.

The Brexiteers are fools to think though that the 3rd option is even viable. If they end up going hard brexit its more than likely the Scots will go nuclear and force a 2nd indyref and this time they WILL leave. On top of that if NI gets hit hard I can guarantee you that no matter what happens the DUP will have set up the best case for a UI and handed it to the nationalists on a place. The DUP's stance and their own ignorant BS will easily be used by those advocating for a UI and Border poll that NI had a perfectly fine arrangement before Brexit and because of that they oversaw the ruining of the status quo and thus the one way off the sinking ship is by reunification with the republic. There would be a sheer irony though if the Brexiteers who "took back control" ended up causing the disintegration of the UK and ending up with controlling a rump state called "little england"!