Brexit discussion thread III

J Mysterio

Infini wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-talks-irish-border-tusk-varadkar-northern-ireland-uk-solution-dup-a8246216.html

EU throws down the gauntlet. Border Issue gets solved before anything else or nothing moves till it is.

Ohhhh. This is fantastic news!

Infini

It was inevitable that the Border issue would ultimately end up coming first. Its the only land border the UK has with the EU (Ireland). It's also the biggest hole that just simply cannot be filled by anything the UK proposes.

Only solution to this is to keep NI inside the customs union and place controls at the ports/airports. There isnt anything else thats workable unless the UK drops its plans to leave the customs union.

Agony Arlene probably going to throw another tantrum but this is basically the comeuppance for pushing for Brexit and putting ideology before logic.

trellheim

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/03/08/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-after-his-meeting-with-an-taoiseach-leo-varadkar/

Go raibh maith agat, Taoiseach. I heard that the last days were particularly difficult in Ireland because of the severe weather, particularly for people in the countryside. But let me reassure you that I have not come here to chill the air, but rather to warm it up. I may be from the East, but I am not a Beast.

I have come to Dublin to consult with the Taoiseach and discuss Ireland's concerns on several important issues ahead of the European Council in two weeks. The European Union is a family of free nations, linked by values. For sure, we may not always be in agreement on everything. But in times of trouble, families come together and stand with each other. For the EU27, this is especially true when we talk about Brexit.

In December, also with the active participation of the Taoiseach, we addressed the most difficult issues resulting from the UK's departure in 2019. Without the progress achieved in December, moving to the second phase of negotiations would not have been possible. But we also have to be clear that any backsliding on the commitments made so far would create a risk to further progress in Brexit negotiations. This applies also to the question of avoiding a hard border.

When I was in London last week, I heard very critical comments by Prime Minister May, and others, about the way the Irish border issue was presented in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

We know today that the UK government rejects: "a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea"; the EU Single Market and the customs union. While we must respect this position, we also expect the UK to propose a specific and realistic solution to avoid a hard border. As long as the UK doesn't present such a solution, it is very difficult to imagine substantive progress in Brexit negotiations. If in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first, before moving to the Irish issue, my response would be: Ireland first.

Next month marks the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, ratified by large majorities North and South of the border. We must recognise the democratic decision taken by Britain to leave the EU in 2016, just as we must recognise the democratic decision made on the island of Ireland in 1998 with all its consequences. The risk of destabilising the fragile peace process must be avoided at all costs. So we will be firm on this.

Yesterday in Luxembourg, I presented my draft guidelines to shape our future relationship with the UK after Brexit. Also yesterday, the UK Chancellor made a speech, in the City of London, arguing for a bespoke deal or an ambitious FTA covering financial services. So let me refer to this issue of such great interest to London.

In the FTA we can offer trade in goods, with the aim of covering all sectors, subject to zero tariffs and no quantitative restrictions. But services are not about tariffs. Services are about common rules, common supervision, and common enforcement. To ensure a level playing field. To ensure the integrity of the Single Market. And ultimately also to ensure financial stability. This is why we cannot offer the same in services as we can offer in goods. And it's also why FTAs don't have detailed rules for financial services. We should all be clear that also when it comes to financial services, life will be different after Brexit.

I also heard the Chancellor's words about financial services being "very much in the mutual interest" of the UK and EU. I fully respect the Chancellor's competence in defining what's in the UK's interest. I would, however, ask to allow us to define what's in the EU's interest.

Finally, let me add that during my visit in Luxembourg yesterday, I experienced what European solidarity with Ireland means. As you know, every country has its own problems resulting from Brexit. So does Luxembourg. But one of the first issues raised by Prime Minister Bettel in our conversation, was the issue of our common position regarding Ireland. Since my last visit here in Dublin, I have spoken to virtually every EU leader, and every one of them – without exception – declared, just like Prime Minister Bettel did yesterday, that among their priorities are: protecting the peace process, and avoiding a hard border. The EU stands by Ireland. This is a matter between the EU27 and UK, not Ireland and the UK. Thank you.

Infini

Infini wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-talks-irish-border-tusk-varadkar-northern-ireland-uk-solution-dup-a8246216.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/08/brexit-rudd-says-uk-keeping-cool-head-as-it-plans-response-to-nerve-agent-attack-on-russian-spy-politics-live?page=with:block-5aa15bc5e4b0039bd7e565ba#block-5aa15bc5e4b0039bd7e565ba

EU throws down the gauntlet. "Ireland comes first". Border Issue must be solved before anything else or nothing moves till it is.

Hmmm, I'd be interested to know the implications of that final tweet listed in the Guardian piece though.

But @EUCoPresident tells me it would be "an exaggeration" to suggest that Ireland effectively has a veto on #Brexit

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/971774143648686080

We need to tread carefully and not to be seen to overplay our hand I think.

Hurrache

The adults have eventually taken away the toys until the kids get their house and homework done. In normality it should make the UK side get the finger out and actually try come up with a plan now instead of speeches. But since when has anything to do with Brexit being normal? Won't be long before the first op-ed piece laying blame on Varadkar for bullying.

Econ_

This is major.

May must now agree to the withdrawal agreement that puts a border in the Irish sea and risk the government falling OR face the cliff edge with no transition deal which would be unspeakably catastrophic for the UK.

Check mate.

Experience_day

This is going to go tits up and we're going to be left in the ****. Be interested to see how far EU solidarity will get us....

Got a feeling this whole thing is going to explode exacerbated by people on both sides who secretly think the other side will come off worst if it really came down to the wire...

Infini

In all respects though its not that we have an absolute Veto on Brexit but we have an incredibly potent case to not agree if the Border isnt solved. The EU has investments in NI too and they know that a Hard Border is just not feasible due to the sheer size and porous nature of the border.

They dont want to say that there's an absolute veto by us on Brexit but the whole border issue is close enough to it since anything the UK proposes short of just putting the border in the Irish Sea isnt going to work.

Hurrache

The Guardian comments cover the full spectrum anyway with the following two comments one after the other

We see the problem with our political system. The EU negotiators are skilled and importantly have been versed in EU law and politics. On the UK side we have a mish mash of journalists, lawyers a doctor and a clown, who have taken offices of state and not content buggering the day job up, are also showing their complete inexperience in dealing with a professional organisation.

EU is a bully and blackmailer. UK should do the same: say there are 500000 British work in EU so only allow the same 500000 EU citizen to work in UK. The rest will soon go home.

Any apparently the story in some of the red tops have comments such as saying Englerlan should take the whole of Ireland back again.

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hmmm, I'd be interested to know the implications of that final tweet listed in the Guardian piece though.



https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/971774143648686080

We need to tread carefully and not to be seen to overplay our hand I think.

I think it might be diplomatic language to say 'Ireland is not at fault for impeding negotiations'.

Unpossible

Sorry if these are silly questions, but:

If the border is put in the Irish sea and NI stays in the customs union, doesn't NI also need to stay in the single market for there to be no border checks?

If the border is in the Irish sea, will NI still get EU funding, CAP for farmers, structural funds etc?

flutered

Hurrache wrote: »

The Guardian comments cover the full spectrum anyway with the following two comments one after the other





Any apparently the story in some of the red tops have comments such as saying Englerlan should take the whole of Ireland back again.

one even went as far as to say that we join them in a sterling and free trade union, w.t.f

Ellian

Unpossible wrote: »

Sorry if these are silly questions, but:

If the border is put in the Irish sea and NI stays in the customs union, doesn't NI also need to stay in the single market for there to be no border checks?

If the border is in the Irish sea, will NI still get EU funding, CAP for farmers, structural funds etc?

Also I assume NI would be expected to make a financial contribution for staying in the CU (and SM if applicable) - I keenly anticipate how that one is going to play out in the British media.

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

Reading that report, one thing that stands out is that they address the changes in the modelling pre-ref and now. They are saying that now they have a new state of the art model which is far better.

Many brexiteers came out to rubbish any reports based on the line "they got it wrong before the ref" but this clearly shows that they they have taken that on board. Yet no mention was ever made of that, allowing the perception that the reports were equal in their reliability.

Since many of the points on these slides are now become talking points of May etc, it is clear that this was seen by the cabinet, yet they allowed that line to be trotted out.

Putting aside the rights and wrong of brexit, that is very serious territory that serving government ministers allowed the people to make untrue claims about the workings of HMG.

Going further into it Section 9 shows the assumptions of the effect of the three scenarios on the different sectors of non tariff barriers (my understanding is that even without any tariffs costs would be incurred). Retail is 20% under WTO, 7.5% under EEA-Type. Financial services is 10%, Agriculture something like 17%. That is simply staggering.

Turning to actual tariffs, under a FTA (what Tusk said is not only option, except for WTO) agri would likely be hit with a further 26% tariffs and beverages, tobacco and food 12.7%.

They state that trade deals covering USA,Australia, India, New Zealand and China may add .7% to GDP.

How any minister could have seen this and thought of anything but stopping Brexit is beyond me. For May to come out and almost brazenly say that there would be some readjustments required, knowing all of this is almost incredible.

They were shown this back in January, before Chequers, before the series of speeches, and yet still plough ahead?

some very interested partys must stand to make very interesting mullah fro brexit so

Hurrache

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think it might be diplomatic language to say 'Ireland is not at fault for impeding negotiations'.

That's what I took from it.

Junkyard Tom

The intricacies of pass-porting and clearing go over my head a bit but this is big, isn't it?


https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/971435824733618176

A crash-out Brexit could result in a loss of up to 83,000 jobs from London.

J Mysterio

Never mind break up of UK (NI, Scotland etc). Newly elected Mayor of Manchester wants devolution to Manchester!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-uk-questions-devolution-northern-ireland-scotland-wales-cities-town-a8244246.html

Havockk

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Anybody?

Unnamed insider
Claimed deal was reached last month with SF
Threw Dodds under the bus for being there with Foster in room.

That was basically it, but it's unusual in itself for it is extremely rare for anyone on the DUP insider to break ranks, so not insignificant. Must also be a fairly high ranker to know some of this info.

Havockk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The intricacies of pass-porting and clearing go over my head a bit but this is big, isn't it?


https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/971435824733618176

A crash-out Brexit could result in a loss of up to 83,000 jobs from London.

This is a day old news, is anyone else but the Independent covering it? Or had this been taken as a given?

Nody

Havockk wrote: »

This is a day old news, is anyone else but the Independent covering it? Or had this been taken as a given?

I saw this comment under the article and I simply love it as it's a great way to sum up Brexit attitude.

Well, at least the commute by tube will be better ...
More of these leaches leave, the better.
Good riddance.

Yes; because London bankers were not paying any significant taxes or anything...

Infini

This might seem a lil bit off topic but a few Brit owned businesses seem to be going under lately here (Maplin in admin, ID going out of buisness, trying to remember a few others). Think in part its due to the currency fluctuations since "Brokexit" (:P).

For Forks Sake

Infini wrote: »

This might seem a lil bit off topic but a few Brit owned businesses seem to be going under lately here (Maplin in admin, ID going out of buisness, trying to remember a few others). Think in part its due to the currency fluctuations since "Brokexit" (:P).

In iD's case, the fact they could only sign up 40,000 customers in a market of 4.5m odd subscribers (over three years) would be the main source of their demise.

Sand

Deleted User wrote: »

We need to tread carefully and not to be seen to overplay our hand I think.

I think we need to evolve our thinking beyond the Irish border being an Ireland-UK issue. The Irish border will be a border between the EU and a third country. Whatever arrangement is reached there will impact the entire EU's relationship with the UK. Tusk says this explicitly.

People who suspect that 'Ireland will be thrown under a bus' by the EU I think miss that a hard border between Ireland and the UK is a hard border between the UK and the EU. Everyone in the EU has an interest in compelling the UK to accept a soft border in Ireland because it implies minimum harm to UK-EU trade as a whole.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The intricacies of pass-porting and clearing go over my head a bit but this is big, isn't it?

Yes, its big in that it cant simply keep business in the UK and have a brass plate operation in the EU. It must have a credible legal entity, balance sheet, management, regulatory controls etc in the EU. EU regulators have been very, very clear on this.

In the short term, I expect they will maintain two entities. One in the EU, one in the UK. But increasingly they'll have to ask is it worth the cost and hassle of maintaining the EU entity and the UK entity in the same region when all the business is in the EU? Why not turn the UK office into the brass plate operation and free up resources? This will be especially compelling if the UK is desperately touting for business by 'slashing Brussels red tape' and are more willing to accept brass plate operations and risky behaviour than EU regulators would.

Other financial institutions are doing the same. And the momentum and top banking roles goes one way over time: legal entities based in the EU, branches in the UK. For all the general insanity in the Brexit debate, the common idea that the City of London has some inherent advantage in financial services that cannot be replicated elsewhere is the most deluded. I think its only rivalled by the idea that the EU has an interest in having the Euro at the mercy of UK financial regulators.

trellheim

People who suspect that 'Ireland will be thrown under a bus' by the EU

Personally I hate when people say "EU vs Ireland" ... what does that mean ?

We ARE the EU ! Not all of it - for sure - and we don't have the power of Germany .... but we ARE the EU ...

Bigus

trellheim wrote: »

Personally I hate when people say "EU vs Ireland" ... what does that mean ?

We ARE the EU ! Not all of it - for sure - and we don't have the power of Germany .... but we ARE the EU ...

Yes and We're more EU now then we ever were , I think this is where the brexiteers went wrong, it's easier to change things from the inside .
I really like the Luxembourg head saying they had more opt outs when they were in , and want more op ins when they're out !

sink

Deleted User wrote: »

We need to tread carefully and not to be seen to overplay our hand I think.

We basically are holding a full house when it comes to our the EU support for our interests vs British interests.

1. We are a member of the EU, what is the point of the EU if not to benefit it's members.
2. Our interests align with the EU regarding protecting the integrity if the single market and seeking British compliance with single market rules in return for access.
3. Our interest align with the EU in preventing lawlessness from smuggling over a porous border.
4. Our interests align with the EU in protecting the GFA and peace in NI, the EU gains a lot of legitimacy through it soft power in containing conflicts (Balkans, former Soviet states etc).

The EU has very little to gain by going against our interests, as they are very much it's own interests.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

Personally I hate when people say "EU vs Ireland" ... what does that mean ?

We ARE the EU ! Not all of it - for sure - and we don't have the power of Germany .... but we ARE the EU ...

There was a story about Ryanair that I read recently which had comments from O'Leary. Within the comments section there was more than one saying if he loves the EU so much why doesn't he go live there. It's amazing the level of ignorance around borders and EU basics that is coming out.

Sand

Hurrache wrote: »

There was a story about Ryanair that I read recently which had comments from O'Leary. Within the comments section there was more than one saying if he loves the EU so much why doesn't he go live there. It's amazing the level of ignorance around borders and EU basics that is coming out.

The tragic bit is you have to allow for masterful trolling by some people as well, so its hard to know if they're really that stupid.

CelticRambler

Sand wrote: »

In the short term, I expect they will maintain two entities. One in the EU, one in the UK. But increasingly they'll have to ask is it worth the cost and hassle of maintaining the EU entity and the UK entity in the same region when all the business is in the EU?

There's another layer to this: non-EU companies that have their offices in London specifically to benefit from passporting, particular the Swiss. What would be the point in having a hobbled operation 90 minutes away in the CoL when you've already got one in Zurich or Geneva and need to create a new operation in a different EU city?

And let's say Frankfurt and Paris attract the bulk of this new business, that will create a new financial community on the continent where Frankfurt and Zurich share a common Germanic culture, and Paris and Geneva a common French attitude. Even if they all speak English, there will be less reason to look towards London for non-EU deals. As Philip Hammond pointed out, perhaps unintentionally: why bother with London when New York or Hong Kong are equally accessible?

LeinsterDub

Meanwhile in France the clusterf**k continues

The boss of the port of Calais has said there could be tailbacks up to 30 miles in all directions and potential food shortages in Britain if a Brexit deal involves mandatory customs and sanitary checks at the French ferry terminal....
“I know Ireland is going to be a real problem, but please remember the economic issues in Ireland are 10 times smaller than what is going to happen here,” he said. “This is a black scenario, but it is going to get darker and darker,” he said, urging politicians in Brussels and London to take urgent action by setting up working groups and listening to business

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/customs-checks-will-cause-huge-tailbacks-warns-calais-port-boss

Skedaddle

Hurrache wrote: »

There was a story about Ryanair that I read recently which had comments from O'Leary. Within the comments section there was more than one saying if he loves the EU so much why doesn't he go live there. It's amazing the level of ignorance around borders and EU basics that is coming out.

I wonder if that was a UK or an Irish comment because it very much sums up the UK attitude that "Europe" is something entirely foreign that, while they may use on a daily basis, they're not part of and a complete ignorance of the fact that Ireland (at least the Republic) is not in the UK.

LeinsterDub

U.K. officials don’t expect to clinch a Brexit deal by the end of the year and privately think January is the real deadline to get an accord in time for exit day, according to people familiar with the negotiations

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-03-08/no-brexit-deal-until-next-year-u-k-officials-say-privately

They must have been on summer holidays when the EU said October is realistically the deadline. Do they honestly expect 37 assemblies of one form or a other to ratify the agreement in less than 3 months.

Junkyard Tom

The CON's have just suffered another number of defeats in local elections in England, this one is particularly humiliating, they've held the seat for nearly 4 decades. This is surely an anti-Brexit vote.



______________________________________________________________________________________

Rochester West (Medway) result: Labour GAIN from Conservative.

LAB: 47.5% (+26.5)
CON: 39.5% (-4.0)
LDEM: 4.7% (+1.0)
GRN: 4.2% (-6.1)
UKIP: 4.1% (-16.2)

twitter.com/britainelects

______________________________________________________________________________________

Petersfield Bell Hill (East Hampshire) result: Independent GAIN from Conservative.
twitter.com/britainelects

______________________________________________________________________________________

Labour GAIN Wollaton West (Nottingham) from Conservative.

twitter.com/britainelects

CelticRambler

Hard to interpret that when a survey on the same twitter account posted 11 hours ago shows that the same % of respondents think that Britain will be better off as those that think it'll be worse off after Brexit. 42% each way, 16% don't know.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/971735849774862336

Junkyard Tom

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hard to interpret that when....

Wait a second, you're saying that people turning up to vote in a local election with a massive swing from the Conservatives to the Lib-Dems is hard to interpret because an opinion poll on something, something, about the future?

Ehhh... okay.

Havockk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The CON's have just suffered another number of defeats in local elections in England, this one is particularly humiliating, they've held the seat for nearly 4 decades. This is surely an anti-Brexit vote.



______________________________________________________________________________________

Rochester West (Medway) result: Labour GAIN from Conservative.
twitter.com/britainelects

______________________________________________________________________________________

Petersfield Bell Hill (East Hampshire) result: Independent GAIN from Conservative.
twitter.com/britainelects

I know this is local elections, but that's some mental swings.

Capt'n Midnight

Not unexpected but it's now formal.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43328398

The European Commission has written to the UK government saying the UK owes €2.7bn (£2.4bn) in customs duties on shoes and textiles imported from China.
...
The UK is accused of doing too little to prevent fraud after it was warned about the problem by the EU's watchdog Olaf in 2017.

It begins a legal process which could end at the European Court of Justice

Here's one reason we're here.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/12/sajid-javid-uk-blocked-higher-eu-steel-tariffs-fearing-shoe-price-rises

The UK blocked tougher EU trade rules to help the steel industry partly because it could have raised the price of shoes for British shoppers, Sajid Javid has said.

The business secretary argued the UK opposed scrapping the so-called lesser duty rule as it would have “cost British shoppers dear”, including an extra £130m a year on the price of footwear – the equivalent of about £4.80 for each household.

£2.4Bn is going to "cost British shoppers dear"

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hard to interpret that when a survey on the same twitter account posted 11 hours ago shows that the same % of respondents think that Britain will be better off as those that think it'll be worse off after Brexit. 42% each way, 16% don't know.

Was looking at Question Time earlier.

Still a lot of ignorance out there.

Surprised that Liam Fox knew that South American countries were exporting steel to to the US, countries that didn't make steel, because they were re-shipping it.

And Trump has pushed that button www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43337951

The tariffs will go into effect in 15 days and include exemptions for Canada and Mexico.

Tariffs of 25% are to be placed on steel and 10% on aluminium imported into the US.

The exemptions are because NAFTA and using a loophole.

Junkyard Tom

Havockk wrote: »

I know this is local elections, but that's some mental swings.

I've been keeping an eye on the British local elections (yes, I have an exciting life) and what's remarkable is that the CON's, on the whole, haven't been soaking up the former UKIP vote.

There seems to be a huge disconnect between what's happening on the ground and the Westminster voting intentions when it comes to polling. The polls have LAB and the CON's neck-and-neck yet the Tories are taking a pasting in local elections.

Havockk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not unexpected but it's now formal.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43328398


Here's one reason we're here.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/12/sajid-javid-uk-blocked-higher-eu-steel-tariffs-fearing-shoe-price-rises£2.4Bn is going to "cost British shoppers dear"

Chalk up another win for short-termism eh. /shakes head

Lemming

Skedaddle wrote: »

I wonder if that was a UK or an Irish comment because it very much sums up the UK attitude that "Europe" is something entirely foreign that, while they may use on a daily basis, they're not part of and a complete ignorance of the fact that Ireland (at least the Republic) is not in the UK.

That reminds me of an encounter I had with a fellow building resident who lived on the same floor as myself, sometime in the first couple of months of having moved into the place (and moved to the UK on top of that). The usual idle 'hello' chit-chat as you're passing each other in the corridor sort of thing. Long story short, he said he was leaving the building because (among other things) as there were too many foreigners. When I pointed out that I am a foreigner he exclaimed that I was Irish so that didn't count.

Rotherham; it was an interesting place to live.

joeysoap

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Was looking at Question Time earlier.

Still a lot of ignorance out there.

Surprised that Liam Fox knew that South American countries were exporting steel to to the US, countries that didn't make steel, because they were re-shipping it.

And Trump has pushed that button www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43337951The exemptions are because NAFTA and using a loophole.

I also got the impression that LF thought that his friend Donald might exempt the UK. ( I know that was not possible). Interesting again that most young members of the audience appeared to support Brexit. And weirder Sue expected acknowledgement when she said she remembered the living in UK before they were members of the EU. The Poet was good.

They majority still haven’t got it though. Red tops rule.

Havockk

joeysoap wrote: »

I also got the impression that LF thought that his friend Donald might exempt the UK. ( I know that was not possible). Interesting again that most young members of the audience appeared to support Brexit. And weirder Sue expected acknowledgement when she said she remembered the living in UK before they were members of the EU. The Poet was good.

They majority still haven’t got it though. Red tops rule.

Don't read too much into audience. Everyone fills in a quite detailed questionnaire that goes into all of that prior. I would fully expect opinions to be carefully managed.

CelticRambler

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Wait a second, you're saying that people turning up to vote in a local election with a massive swing from the Conservatives to the Lib-Dems is hard to interpret because an opinion poll on something, something, about the future?

Ehhh... okay.

Yes, exactly. If 42% of the electorate still think Britain will be better off economically post Brexit despite all the government admissions that it will be worse off, then I don't think 8 local election results out of thousands of council seats is any kind of a comment on Brexit. An anti-Tory protest vote, maybe, but probably nothing to do with Brexit.

Junkyard Tom

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yes, exactly.

Okay we're using different operating systems here so let's just leave it at that.

Peregrinus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-03-08/no-brexit-deal-until-next-year-u-k-officials-say-privately

They must have been on summer holidays when the EU said October is realistically the deadline. Do they honestly expect 37 assemblies of one form or a other to ratify the agreement in less than 3 months.

Well, there may be method in their madness.

Recall that a recurring pattern in the journey toward Brexit has been (a) the EU makes some specific, concrete proposal, usually in the form of a position paper or similar, (b) the UK responds with a speech which rejects the proposal and makes suggestions which are criticised as vague, unrealistic, incomplete, or all three, and (c) at the last minute the UK caves and accepts 90%+ of what the EU originally proposed.

This leads to much criticism of the UK for being inept, uninformed, unprepared, outflanked, etc, etc. But what’s at work here might not be ineptitude; maybe this is a Cunning Plan.

The UK government is both in a weak domestic political position and in a weak negotiating position with the EU. They keep themselves in office by apparently pandering to ultra-Brexity sentiment. Then, when they cave to the EU, they present ultra-Brexiters with a fait accompli. “I know it’s not great, and it's not what we wanted, but it’s the best we could achieve in the circumstances and, lookit, it’s better than ‘no deal’”. The dilemma for Brexiters is that they must decide at short notice how to respond. If they withdraw support from the government, they risk (a) a no-deal Brexit which, rhetoric aside, they mostly know would be very bad for the UK, plus (b) a vote of confidence, a general election and a Corbynista government. And however disappointed they are in Teresa, they reckon Jeremy would be worse. So they grudgingly accept what Teresa has done. Teresa stays in office, and we are one step closer to a Brexit on terms acceptable to the EU, which has always been the only way of avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

The success of this strategy depends on Teresa never actually engaging with the ultra-Brexiters, other than superficially. In particular, she never tries to change their minds. She makes all the right noises, so they have nothing to criticise her for, until at the last minute she does a deal, and now it's too late for the ultra-Brexiters to influence the deal; they can only accept it, or bring the house down about their ears.

The point of pretending that January is the deadline is to be able to keep up the double act, and continue not engaging with ultra-Brexiters. By pretending that you don’t have to make the hard choices yet you can - once again - make the hard choices when you are not expected to, and spring a done deal on the ultra-Brexiters which - once again - they can only reject at enormous cost to their own objectives and interests.

So it may be that the UK negotiators are perfectly aware that the deal has to be done by October, but it suits them to pretend to think that they have till January.

murphaph

Interesting hypothesis. It certainly could be the case. We know May is negotiating on several fronts, with the EU, the DUP, the Irish government (technically not directly but there is direct contact), parliament and specifically the backbenchers in her own party, both leave and remain and of course the public are looking on as well. When you've all these parties breathing down your neck, kicking the can down the road in this way must seem the least worst option.

Skedaddle

Lemming wrote: »

That reminds me of an encounter I had with a fellow building resident who lived on the same floor as myself, sometime in the first couple of months of having moved into the place (and moved to the UK on top of that). The usual idle 'hello' chit-chat as you're passing each other in the corridor sort of thing. Long story short, he said he was leaving the building because (among other things) as there were too many foreigners. When I pointed out that I am a foreigner he exclaimed that I was Irish so that didn't count.

Rotherham; it was an interesting place to live.

I’ve had similar experiences myself. They’ve an odd view of Ireland. I’ve always compared it to how someone might see their ex-wife decades after a particularly acrimonious divorce.

flatty

Generally, they love the Irish. They love the country. They can't wait to tell you about a relative, or about great holidays they have had there.
They are ignorant about the Irish question not wilfully, but simply because they are never taught anything about it. The history curriculum, even in the best schools (and my snappers are in them pretty much) tells them nothing about Ireland, being more interested in whose head Henry the eighth lopped off. It is a bizarre and inward looking syllabus from the little I've seen of it.

Skedaddle

It's actually quite bizarre when you think bout it: The Republic Ireland leaving the UK was the single most significant structural event to happen to it in centuries. Irish history, certainly until 1922 and all of modern Northern Irish history is a fundamental part of British or UK history. You can't really just lop it off and pretend it has nothing to do with you.

It's just a bit weird that there's no general awareness of even the broad outline of Irish history. I mean, I have actually had more informed views of Irish history from French people than I have had from people living in England. Maybe it's just that the historians are finding it 'too close for comfort' and an awkward embarrassment? I know for example, Irish history teachers completely avoided the civil war for decades.

Or, is it just classical imperial revisionism? As I similarly note that a lot of people seem to have a very 'warm and cuddly' view of the British Empire that it really does not deserve. I find that quite at odds with the French view of their imperial period which seems to sit very uncomfortably with their notion of modern, human rights based republicanism and revolutionary values. So, they can usually place it into context and condemn and disown it to a large degree.

I just find a lot of things about the UK a little strange. Everything about it is vaguely defined. Even the fact that it isn't neither a federal state nor a single country. It's a sort of nebulously structured 'entity' where you've 4 different nations and endless squabbling over what to call those parts - are they countries, nations, states? They don't even play most sports, other than the olympics as a single entity together and when they do they use the term "Team GB" which technically does not refer to Northern Ireland.

Even the term "British" is controversial as it fundamentally excludes Northern Ireland which is part of the United Kingdom, not Britain.

It's just an odd place that seems to have a lot of kludges and identity crises. It's really no surprise that it's not able to deal with the concept of being an EU member.