Brexit discussion thread III

Skedaddle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The problem is, to protect border workers and infrastructure they will have to have 'draconian and heavy handed security' and it will most certainly be seen as such.

The problem with that is it'll be met with even more 'draconian' resistance to match whatever they put there. So, you can be sure before long it will have escalated into a really nasty situation.

FrancieBrady

Skedaddle wrote: »

The problem with that is it'll be met with even more 'draconian' resistance to match whatever they put there. So, you can be sure before long it will have escalated into a really nasty situation.

My point in a nutshell. Very scary stuff.

Skedaddle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My point in a nutshell. Very scary stuff.

What worries me is that there's an element of the British right that would almost welcome a target to bash into submission. They'll see it as a challenge to be overcome with force, not a political, cultural or diplomatic issue to be dealt with.

It just depresses me that they'll go head first back to the 1970s and 80s.

There was so much work and trust building put into that peace process over the last 30+ years. I don't think they really understand or care about what they're doing.

Also the comparisons to "Oh it's just a normal EU border." It isn't. There are very few comparable situations, as most of the most complicated, conflicted and controversial European borders that are peaceful, exist within the EU. It has made a lot of them irrelevant.

Essentially, they are making one of the most disputed borders, that has been very recently argued over with extreme violence, into an external EU-UK frontier ?

Are they nuts? You really have to ask the question.

I mean, what's the point in even arguing with them? No matter how bad the economic consequences for the UK or anywhere else are, they don't care. No matter what happens to Northern Ireland, they don't care.

It's like trying to have a sane conversation with religious fundamentalists or a cult. There's no possibility of a pragmatic discussion. It just goes back to flag waving and chanting "Brexit means Brexit." Or, they reiterate the same proposals that everyone has already explained are unworkable.

How do you even begin to negotiate with that?!

Angry bird

There would be attacks on any border infrastructure sure as night follows day, and repeats of Canary Wharf. I'm not trying to justify it, simply pointing out possible or even likely scenarios.

Skedaddle

They will not listen to any expert opinions on this.

You're talking about a political movement that has essentially pulled all of the foundations out from under the British economy and sees nothing wrong with creating that kind of instability. It's blatantly obvious that they have no plan, yet they keep pushing forward with it regardless.

How can businesses plan investments if they'd on't even know what the customs situation will be like in 12 months time?!

They really do not care about anything other than delivering this notion of "Brexit" even if they can't define what that is. Somehow that's now worth more than the UK economy, more than stable long term investment, more than the Northern Irish peace process.

This is a period of utter political stupidity in the UK that has almost no precedent. It's mind-blowingly idiotic and the media is doing no favours by just hand-wringing and not critiquing it and laughing it off the stage.

I actually don't know what the point of even commenting on it is anymore. You can only argue with stupid for so long before it starts to just become pointless.

They'll just crash the Titanic into the iceberg no matter what anyone says. Then they'll probably blame unknown foreigners (possibly illegally immigrating magic pixies) for putting the iceberg there.

Or, have a massive argument with reality and engage in some shooting themselves in the foot while attacking their own reflection in the mirror.

I just give up. Sorry UK, you've been duped by the tabloids and elected morons. Deal with it!

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

Why would we have to introduce one here?

We would have to mirror what happens north of the border.

Anyway, it is in our interests to make the CTA work seamlessly, and this is part of it. It would not require us not to join Schengen, but if we did, then there would be a de facto requirement for NI to join, with a Schengen border on the Irish sea.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

So you are claiming that those living on the border will actively go out to break national laws?

Yes it a long and difficult border to police, but that we what we need to do to uphold any laws. We cannot simply throw up our hands and say "its too hard".

I would have hoped that given the last 20+ years to try to normalise NI that we would have moved away from terrorism, but if they insist on going back to the old ways then I hope they are dealt with in the same way that ISIS or any such terrorists are dealt with.

This constant cry from those in NI that anytime anything happens will lead to a return to violence is so tiring. Get over it. You have a working solution (far from perfect).

It's been nearly two months since Óglaigh na hÉireann called a ceasefire

And nearly two weeks since the last pipe bomb attack

We aren't out of the woods yet.


And your solution is to use tactics that didn't work in the past ?

Besides which smuggling is not really regarded as all that illegal or immoral in the border counties. Just look at how many fuel smugglers have been sent to prison in the North vs. the rest of the UK.


The way it used to work down South Armagh way was that customs wouldn't go in without the police. The police wouldn't go in without the army. And the army weren't going in without helicopters. And even if they did arrest someone, no one was going to testify in court. And even if they got a conviction sentencing was more lenient than in GB.

It's potentially a billion a year in lost revenue to HM Government if excise is reduced in ROI.

Infini

Skedaddle wrote: »

How do you even begin to negotiate with that?!

I would be honest if they cant negotiate in good faith or with any comprehension of the facts at hand then its not a negotiation anymore its basically a list of demands and if they cant come up with something that's politically acceptable then that's what they can have or its nothing.

Whats needed to be ultimately made very clear is that the EU doesnt want this, its the UK and if they dont want self-inflicted economic chaos then it WILL be as whats acceptable and only acceptable to the EU on their terms as they have nothing to play here. There's no point in arguing with idiots. They just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. The only way to beat them is not to argue but simply hit them with cold hard logic and if they cant come up with anything workable its take or leave it at their own peril. When they're forced to make the decision is the only time they bother to think at all.

It should also be made clear in all honesty that NI needs to remain in the customs union wether the DUP or Conservatards like it or not. They wanted Brexit? then this is the result. Refuse and essentially its an official no-deal. It would be extremely Ironic if the DUP who campaigned to undermine the GF agreement and supported Brexit ended up being the entity that triggered a series of events leading to a UI. Their toxic stupidity has no place here and in part because of them they ruined one of the most comfortable arrangements they could have ever had and brought the UI issue back into focus because if it.

Ultimately a border poll for NI will probably be needed down the line one way or another. There's certainly plenty of decent people up there in the unionist/protestant community and what would be needed is assurances and planning put in place so that in a UI scenario that they're not left behind and are reasonably looked after. You cant do much about the headbangers but you can make them irrelevant by making sure the vast majority are looked after.

Leroy42

I agree with the reply to my posts, I totally agree with the underlying possibilites of a return to violence and I want to make it clear that I am not trying to portray that as another other than a travesty.

However, at the present time we are on a collision course between the EU and UK position of December and the position as currently stated by the UK. We will either have a climb down by the UK or a hard border. Whilst I remain hopeful, I simply cannot see how the UK will back down and accept EU rules across the whole country. They are fare more willing to sacrifice, what to many of them, is a foreign place. What does it matter to the guy sitting in the North East mining town if there are some problems on the border in NI?

May will not lose an election because of what is going on in NI, she will lose it based on seats in England. From that position it is easy to see that to maintain a full Brexit they will willing allow whatever happens in NI to happen and simply blame the EU. They have already said they won't bring in a border (a farcical position but one aimed at the domestic audience who won't actually bother to look at the reality).

So we are, IMO,faced with the very high probability of a border. The likelyhood of a group of terrorists being unhappy and carrying out attacks, whilst terrible, is not any reason not to do it. Would we accept that removal of laws simply because ISIS threatened us? Of course not. If they attack, they need to be shown, on both sides, that whatever they felt their reasons in previous times were, they are no longer justified and the full force of the law needs to be brought to bear.

As for smuggling, they need to create border at every crossing, and close of the rest. If people are found carrying out illegal activities they need to be held to justice. This is the exact same as every other border in the world.

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

As for smuggling, they need to create border at every crossing, and close of the rest. If people are found carrying out illegal activities they need to be held to justice. This is the exact same as every other border in the world.

Regrettably the problem in the first place is that the border in itself is too porous to actually enforce in part because its disputed territory ever since its creation. The only way to negate its effect is to keep NI inside the CU. I agree that we don't want a return to violence and I hope it doesn't get to that stage of course but we need to make it clear to the Brexiteer idiots in London that if they cause a return to the bad old days of violence because of their utter ignorance and disregard for the well-being of people here that they'll be the ones held to account over it.

Leroy42

Infini wrote: »

Regrettably the problem in the first place is that the border in itself is too porous to actually enforce in part because its disputed territory ever since its creation. The only way to negate its effect is to keep NI inside the CU. I agree that we don't want a return to violence and I hope it doesn't get to that stage of course but we need to make it clear to the Brexiteer idiots in London that if they cause a return to the bad old days of violence because of their utter ignorance and disregard for the well-being of people here that they'll be the ones held to account over it.

Right, but what does that even mean. Hold them to account? I don't think they care either way. They want Brexit, and it seems that no price is too high for that. They ignore the economic reports, ignore the advice from industry ignore the pleading of the NHS and others. So why do you think May, of whomever is the PM, is going to care too much about a conflict in NI?

Sounds harsh, but lets face it, they don't win any seats over there and DUP are on the UK side no matter what. SF don't take seats so what have they got to lose.

It seems to me that part of the misunderstanding of the whole Brexit thing, is that we are looking at from a logical and outcome POV. The UK are looking at it as nothing more than getting out of the EU. Whatever happens from that, at least they will be out and can face it themselves.

Jim2007

Infini wrote: »

Regrettably the problem in the first place is that the border in itself is too porous to actually enforce in part because its disputed territory ever since its creation.

There are plenty of small roads criss crossing the Germany/Swiss border and no doubt the same is true no doubt it is the same on many other parts of the EU border and yet it works. It works because they don't care about average Joe's shopping trips, they only care about vans, trucks etc.... who are monitored via CCTV and from the air. Such vehicles will be tracked and checked if found to cross the border via an unauthorised road. What it comes down to is the determination to do it.

Skedaddle

I have to laugh at the quotes that the US-Canada border is "frictionless".

I drove from Vancouver to Seattle a couple of years ago (before Trump level of paranoia) and there was a long queue on the way into the US and all the usual US rigmarole, including for Canadians.

On the way back out, the Canadians stopped us and wanted to see in the boot of the car. It was nothing to do with illegal immigration, it was to catch Canadians on shopping sprees. There were several other cars stopped being asked to produce receipts for stuff in their suit cases that looked new and unwashed.

They actually didn't seem to be at all bothered about us as we were definitely leaving Canada again in a few days and were unlikely to be smuggling socks and household appliances into Canada.

I also know someone who accidentally wandered across the border while hiking and were arrested for illegally entering the USA and there was a HUGE fuss about it. They were even questioned about being terrorists, despite the fact that they were clearly Canadian hikers.

I've also lived in France and there are plenty of horror stories about Swiss and French customs being absolutely unreasonable over nothing more than your average bag of grocery shopping.

These 'frictionless borders' are only frictionless when they feel like it. There's no guarantees of anything with them. You're usually crossing at the whim of some customs / border official who may or may not feel like going on a power trip that day. It's certainly a far cry from the current normality of the non-existent Northern Ireland border.

Peregrinus

Jim2007 wrote: »

There are plenty of small roads criss crossing the Germany/Swiss border and no doubt the same is true no doubt it is the same on many other parts of the EU border and yet it works. It works because they don't care about average Joe's shopping trips, they only care about vans, trucks etc.... who are monitored via CCTV and from the air. Such vehicles will be tracked and checked if found to cross the border via an unauthorised road. What it comes down to is the determination to do it.

Switzerland is in the Schengen Zone, as are all the countries which which it has a land border, so there are no restrictions at all on the movement of people across the Swiss border. That already makes policing the Swiss border a smaller and more simpler task than Brexit implies for the Irish border.

And yet the Swiss border has substantial infrastructure, and crossing it can involve significant delays. This FT article may be paywalled, but the photograph should be visible, and that tells its own story.

Ewan Hoosarmi

I've been watching this slow motion train wreck happening for a while now.

There are a lot of people on here saying they must be stupid or insane. You have to accept that the main actors in this play are, for the most part, well educated, worldly wise people. I don't think there is any insanity involved either.

I nearly feel sorry for PM May. She has all the attributes of a rabbit caught in the headlights. She's desperately trying to figure out which direction will save her life. I think this will be a last second dive one way or the other.

As for the people pushing her towards the hardest of hard Brexits, well, I think their motivations are clear: large pockets filled with cash effectively stolen from the ordinary citizen.

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

We would have to mirror what happens north of the border.

No, we wouldn't. The whole point of a border is that different rules apply on each side.

I don't think we will have the dilemma. Brexiters would be apalled at the idea of making Her Majesty's Subjects carry identity papers around. This idea will be a complete non-starter in post-Brexit UK.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Anyway, it is in our interests to make the CTA work seamlessly, and this is part of it. It would not require us not to join Schengen, but if we did, then there would be a de facto requirement for NI to join, with a Schengen border on the Irish sea.

If we join Schengen, obviously, the CTA comes to an end. (The CTA is the reason we're not in Schengen now.) I can't imagine the EU pressing us to join Schengen unless the CTA had already been terminated, and there are no proposals to do this.

I would point out that you can have a CTA, and still have a hard border. That, after all, is the state of affairs that prevailed in Ireland from 1952 until the creation of the Single Market in 1993. The Irish border has never really been about controlling the movement of people (except for security reasons, during the Troubles); it has always been about goods, customs and duty.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

We would have to mirror what happens north of the border.

Anyway, it is in our interests to make the CTA work seamlessly, and this is part of it. It would not require us not to join Schengen, but if we did, then there would be a de facto requirement for NI to join, with a Schengen border on the Irish sea.

No, we wouldn't. The whole point of a border is that different rules apply on each side.

I don't think we will have the dilemma. Brexiters would be apalled at the idea of making Her Majesty's Subjects carry identity papers around. This idea will be a complete non-starter in post-Brexit UK.


If we join Schengen, obviously, the CTA comes to an end. (The CTA is the reason we're not in Schengen now.) I can't imagine the EU pressing us to join Schengen unless the CTA had already been terminated, and there are no proposals to do this.

I would point out that you can have a CTA, and still have a hard border. That, after all, is the state of affairs that prevailed in Ireland from 1952 until the creation of the Single Market in 1993. The Irish border has never really been about controlling the movement of people (except for security reasons, during the Troubles); it has always been about goods, customs and duty.

My point is that we would introduce an ID card if the UK introduced one, and only to facilitate the CTA, and if it kept the border open.

I understand the point about the Brexiteers would have a fit if one was forced upon them, but if it was, then so be it. People crossing the border would not be the problem as far as we would be concerned, but it could well be a problem for the UK, particularly the Brexiteers. They would have to choose.

Skedaddle

There’s a difference between educated and pragmatic and sensible. Sometimes it all goes together, sometimes it doesn’t.

A lot of those in charge are extremely insulated from the consequences of Brexit as they don’t have to do normal trade and business and come from quite monied backgrounds. Others are just diehard nationalists who don’t care what the consequences are.

As for May being caught in the headlights as some victim figure. I don’t buy it.

She’s possibly a weak PM but she has a background of being a very tough talking, right wing Home Secretary. I think she may be open on trade but I suspect she’s got a view of the world that’s about Fortress Britain. That’s quite possibly where the contradictory positions - only wanting the trade aspect of the EU, on her terms, with her courts as none is this freedom of movement or human rights courts stuff is coming from.

If she were this fragile little deer caught in headlights she’d have long since stepped aside.

Thargor

Boris increasing the £350 million figure:

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/972786928071401472?s=21

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

What does it matter to the guy sitting in the North East mining town if there are some problems on the border in NI?

May will not lose an election because of what is going on in NI, she will lose it based on seats in England.

Ah, but the seats in England will be lost on the basis of what happens in NI, because the guy sitting in the North East mining town - the one who was promised 350 million for his local hospital, and a city centre free of immigrants, and a world of trade deals that would make his weekly shop cheaper - he's going to ask what happened to the utopia he voted for.

When some Tory politician tells him "it's those Brussels bullies, holding us over a barrel because of Northern Ireland", he's going to respond "What the f**k does NI have to do with me? I couldn't give a f**k about the Irish. If the f**krs in Brussels want NI, let them have it so I can have the Brexit I was promised".

And then he'll vote Labour.

Econ_

Thargor wrote: »

Boris increasing £350 million figure:

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/972786928071401472?s=21

The man has no shame; completely devoid of any principle or integrity. The very antithesis of a stellar politician.

What is striking in the clip is the lack of dignity and self-respect of the Telegraph columnists and subscribers around him. Make no mistake, they know that the £350m extra a week for the NHS is entirely hogwash and they know Boris chose to lead the leave campaign on the basis of political self-interest rather than a genuine belief in the project.

And yet there they are, laughing at his every joke and happily pretending that Boris is somehow a good thing for them and their country.

Embarrassing.

Charles Babbage

Leroy42 wrote: »

Was this not a report prepared by the EU? So whilst TM may be in favour it is incorrect to say that she is proposing it.

This report was prepared for the EU, but is infeasible.

And don't we need to start working on solution to the border issue. It seems we are still living in the land where a border won't exist, but that would require the UK to cancel Brexit, or for the EU to give up on some of its key principles.

The EU have proposed a solution, that is what the people in both parts of Ireland want.

A border is coming, borders exist in other countries and claiming that it can't operate because a few terrorists won't like it? So we need to find a way to deal with the terrorists, not ignore the border.

This has nothing to do with "terrorists", it has to do with Irish people wishing to circulate in their own locality.
To characterise normal people as terrorists is a disgrace, even by Boards.ie standards.

ancapailldorcha

Boris Johnson is a political enigma.

I've read that the bungling Boris persona he portrays is just a facade but I really think that it's more of an exaggeration. His enthusiasm for Brexit seems only tepid when compared to that of, say Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees-Mogg. I don't get what he really wants. All Out War details his leadership bid including a bungled deal with both Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom as well as messing up a speech because he wrote it at the last minute.

Ironically, if he'd supported Remain, he'd be in a much stronger position with both the electorate and his party as I think that would have ensured a victory, though slight for remain.

Econ_

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Boris Johnson is a political enigma.

I've read that the bungling Boris persona he portrays is just a facade but I really think that it's more of an exaggeration. His enthusiasm for Brexit seems only tepid when compared to that of, say Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees-Mogg. I don't get what he really wants. All Out War details his leadership bid including a bungled deal with both Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom as well as messing up a speech because he wrote it at the last minute.

Ironically, if he'd supported Remain, he'd be in a much stronger position with both the electorate and his party as I think that would have ensured a victory, though slight for remain.

It was once commonly thought that Boris was a clever man masquerading as a fool.

Since his appointment as foreign secretary he has, in fact, revealed himself to be a fool masquerading as a clever man masquerading as a fool.

ancapailldorcha

Econ_ wrote: »

It was once commonly thought that Boris was a clever man masquerading as a fool.

Since his appointment as foreign secretary he has, in fact, revealed himself to be a fool masquerading as a clever man masquerading as a fool.

The man has authored several books. I can't judge their quality as I have no interest whatsoever in reading the work of someone like him. I get the impression that he's ambitious enough to want to be Prime Minister but lacks even basic motivational and organisational skills to actually successfully coordinate a campaign to get there and he squandered a golden opportunity about 18 months ago.

Water John

In simple stark economic terms, NI is being offered an amazing deal by the EU.
Economically, they will have their cake and eat it. Politically, it would solidify, no desire in NI for a UI Referendum.
Some of the DUP are managing to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Ian Paisley Snr, made sure every Unionist, Protestant cow in NI was considered Irish and had a special place. It's now being offered for all NI goods, but the idiots in the DUP don't see it.

For Forks Sake

Water John wrote: »

In simple stark economic terms, NI is being offered an amazing deal by the EU.
Economically, they will have their cake and eat it. Politically, it would solidify, no desire in NI for a UI Referendum.
Some of the DUP are managing to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Ian Paisley Snr, made sure every Unionist, Protestant cow in NI was considered Irish and had a special place. It's now being offered for all NI goods, but the idiots in the DUP don't see it.

100% agree, posted my opinion back in December in the old thread:

They had a chance with the offer on the table today to improve the lot of all in NI.

Bearing in mind that the place is reliant on Westminster handouts, the deal as reported could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity to diversify and improve the economy there - Belfast could have been a hub for business currently based in other parts of the UK who would like to maintain a base that allowed them access to the EU without the need for wholesale upheaval (moving to other parts of Europe post Brexit).

Because they way things are progressing, the handouts will be in very short supply post Brexit.

There was an opportunity - for once - to do something that could have potentially improved the lives of all in NI - and they blew it.

But no, the DUP maintained the only consistent word in their vocabulary. NO.

CrabRevolution

I don't think many people in the UK (and to a far lesser degree Ireland) appreciate how big a deal the Troubles were and how big a worldwide profile it had. I mean even looking at it objectively, an ethno-religious conflict in Western Europe continuing well into the 90s is pretty jarring.

I was reading a book about the Apollo programme recently and it had a paragraph on society and world events in the late 60s. The beginning of the troubles in the North was listed alongside major worldwide events such as the Tet Offensive, the 6 Day War, the Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia etc.

In his Millenium lecture in 1999, author and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel included it amongst some of the 20th centuries bloodiest events:

These failures have cast a dark shadow over humanity: two World Wars, countless civil wars, the senseless chain of assassinations -- Gandhi, the Kennedys, Martin Luther King, Sadat, Rabin -- bloodbaths in Cambodia and Nigeria, India and Pakistan, Ireland and Rwanda, Eritrea and Ethiopia, Sarajevo and Kosovo; the inhumanity in the gulag and the tragedy of Hiroshima.

Yet you wouldn't guess from a lot of UK press and politicians that it was a good thing it ended, or that it'd be all that bad if it restarted. I wonder why that is.

Are they embarrassed it happened at all? Do they think it should never have ended peacefully, and the fight been taken to the IRA for another few decades? Are they in agreement with hardcore unionists that equality for catholics/nationalists is just inherently wrong?

It's amazing how blasé they are about one of the most notable and well known peace deals in the world.

embraer170

Peregrinus wrote: »

Switzerland is in the Schengen Zone, as are all the countries which which it has a land border, so there are no restrictions at all on the movement of people across the Swiss border. That already makes policing the Swiss border a smaller and more simpler task than Brexit implies for the Irish border.

And yet the Swiss border has substantial infrastructure, and crossing it can involve significant delays. This FT article may be paywalled, but the photograph should be visible, and that tells its own story.

Absolutely right. It is ridiculous to use the Swiss/EU border as a good example. Is this really what we could consider acceptable for our border with the North?


Anyone crossing the Swiss/German border on a weekday on the Karlsruhe-Basel motorway (busiest border crossing in Switzerland) is likely to see queues of trucks. These can stretch for miles on the very bad days. The last few miles before the border on the German side are set up with a complex traffic management system that can close off one or two motorway lanes for queuing trucks.



For some idea of the scale of the facilities:
87 acres, 140 employees on the Swiss side and 145 employees on the German side.

https://www.srf.ch/news/regional/basel-baselland/neue-zollanlage-soll-lastwagenabfertigung-beschleunigen





Meanwhile some of the smaller Switzerland/EU border crossing points are closed by physical barriers for all traffic at night. The number of these nighttime closures is increasing.

Charles Babbage

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Yet you wouldn't guess from a lot of UK press and politicians that it was a good thing it ended, or that it'd be all that bad if it restarted. I wonder why that is.

Are they embarrassed it happened at all? Do they think it should never have ended peacefully, and the fight been taken to the IRA for another few decades? Are they in agreement with hardcore unionists that equality for catholics/nationalists is just inherently wrong?

It's amazing how blasé they are about one of the most notable and well known peace deals in the world.

And it is difficult to underestimate the effect on Britain's reputation internationally if they are seen to deliberately renege on the agreement,especially as the entire EU will be briefing against them and the US State department will be less than impressed.

Brexit is a strange beast, it has the British government acting against the interests of British business and British diplomacy, very very odd way for a government to behave.

J Mysterio

Thargor wrote: »

Boris increasing the £350 million figure:

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/972786928071401472?s=21

Holy Jesus Christ. The significance of that can't be understated. This is literally unbelievable.

Was this said in Parliament? In the clip you can hear a whole load of laughter. I mean, Parliament is already a weird kind of society within a society with bizarre customs and norms, but this is most certainly not a laughing matter and they need to get very serious, very fast.

I used to think Boris was a funny guy and quite affable, now I know he is a dangerous fool. He should be fired immediately.

flutered

Charles Babbage wrote: »

And it is difficult to underestimate the effect on Britain's reputation internationally if they are seen to deliberately renege on the agreement,especially as the entire EU will be briefing against them and the US State department will be less than impressed.

Brexit is a strange beast, it has the British government acting against the interests of British business and British diplomacy, very very odd way for a government to behave.

as regards the us, there are may irish americans in trumps inner circle, whose side would they come down on, irish or uk side, is not one of them besties with adams

flutered

Skedaddle wrote: »

They will not listen to any expert opinions on this.

You're talking about a political movement that has essentially pulled all of the foundations out from under the British economy and sees nothing wrong with creating that kind of instability. It's blatantly obvious that they have no plan, yet they keep pushing forward with it regardless.

How can businesses plan investments if they'd on't even know what the customs situation will be like in 12 months time?!

They really do not care about anything other than delivering this notion of "Brexit" even if they can't define what that is. Somehow that's now worth more than the UK economy, more than stable long term investment, more than the Northern Irish peace process.

This is a period of utter political stupidity in the UK that has almost no precedent. It's mind-blowingly idiotic and the media is doing no favours by just hand-wringing and not critiquing it and laughing it off the stage.

I actually don't know what the point of even commenting on it is anymore. You can only argue with stupid for so long before it starts to just become pointless.

They'll just crash the Titanic into the iceberg no matter what anyone says. Then they'll probably blame unknown foreigners (possibly illegally immigrating magic pixies) for putting the iceberg there.

Or, have a massive argument with reality and engage in some shooting themselves in the foot while attacking their own reflection in the mirror.

I just give up. Sorry UK, you've been duped by the tabloids and elected morons. Deal with it!

i believe that there is a plan, for some, this involves making much mullah from the firesale of some if not most of the uk's assets

Thargor

J Mysterio wrote: »

Holy Jesus Christ. The significance of that can't be understated. This is literally unbelievable.

Was this said in Parliament? In the clip you can hear a whole load of laughter. I mean, Parliament is already a weird kind of society within a society with bizarre customs and norms, but this is most certainly not a laughing matter and they need to get very serious, very fast.

I used to think Boris was a funny guy and quite affable, now I know he is a dangerous fool. He should be fired immediately.

James O Brien on LBC Radio calls him "The most despicable politician that I can ever remember encountering" in this piece, I totally agree, its a good read:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/investigation-into-where-boriss-40m-garden-bridge/

Boris is really on another level.

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

In simple stark economic terms, NI is being offered an amazing deal by the EU.
Economically, they will have their cake and eat it. Politically, it would solidify, no desire in NI for a UI Referendum.
Some of the DUP are managing to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Ian Paisley Snr, made sure every Unionist, Protestant cow in NI was considered Irish and had a special place. It's now being offered for all NI goods, but the idiots in the DUP don't see it.

For Forks Sake wrote: »

100% agree, posted my opinion back in December in the old thread:

The best solution for Ireland is for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and single market, not necessarily for Northern Ireland. Well in fairness to the DUP they are probably looking at the figures that show that inter-UK trade for NI is almost 3 times as much as trade with the EU. You can play with the statistics a lot here on whether you include Ireland into EU trade numbers. That way you can lessen the impact of trade with Ireland against trade with the EU. As an example trade with Ireland is about one fifth of the trade that NI does with the UK. Now it makes sense to rather keep the arrangements with the UK intact than the open border with the EU.

But then if you include Ireland in the EU figures, just makes sense as Ireland doesn't have a border with the EU so there is no reason to treat trade with Ireland as different to trade with any other EU country the figures aren't that extremely weighted towards keeping the link to the UK versus the EU.

NI trade to UK - around £10bn
NI to EU trade - around £4bn
NI to Ireland trade - around £2.7bn (estimated numbers)

So excluding Ireland from EU trade really imbalances the figures so you would see the DUP be partial to these figures.

But it seems that the story regarding these figures are even more complex once you delve into what trade in Ireland and NI and the UK all entails. The trade with the UK is more for NI, but that trade is actually dependent on trade with Ireland as well as there is a reliance on Ireland for NI for raw materials that assists with the trade numbers with the UK. So if you take away trade with Ireland then not only will the total trade figures suffer but trade numbers with the UK will go down as well.

The United Kingdom (UK) remains the most significant market for businesses in Northern Ireland – sales to Great Britain were worth one and a half times the value of all Northern Ireland exports and nearly four times the value of exports to Ireland in 2015. Nevertheless, the sale of finished products to Great Britain relies upon crossborder trade in raw materials and components within integrated supply chains meaning trade with both Great Britain and Ireland are vital to Northern Ireland’s economy.

Additional Data Paper: Northern Ireland Trade Data and Statistics

Also, Northern Ireland runs a trade deficit with the EU of about £3bn with the EU.

It is evident from more recent data, which includes figures for 2015 and 2016, that this trend towards an increasing trade deficit has continued. HMRC’s data for 2015 shows Northern Ireland’s balance of trade with the EU to be in deficit to the value of £2.9 billion, with 2016 data showing a deficit of £3 billion.

What goods does Northern Ireland export, how much are they worth and where do they go?


It seems that the best solution for NI is not to stop trade with either the EU or the UK. Their best solution was to stay in the EU, which they voted for in fairness. The fact that the DUP wanted to leave the EU and is now in the middle of the UK government that is actively pursuing this course of action is staggering to say the least.

Enzokk

Thargor wrote: »

James O Brien on LBC Radio calls him "The most despicable politician that I can ever remember encountering" in this piece, I totally agree, its a good read:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/investigation-into-where-boriss-40m-garden-bridge/

Boris is really on another level.

James O Brien is also fond of telling the story that Boris ruffles his hair before he goes out to meet the press to give himself the buffoon image. He is not an idiot, no matter his pronouncements in public. He is a calculating politician who has his eyes on the top job and that is dangerous for all of us. Think about Churchill without WW2 to change how the world views him. Take away WW2 from Churchill and all you have is a bigoted racist who believed in the Empire and white supremacy.

When concentration camps were built in South Africa, for white Boers, he said they produced "the minimum of suffering". The death toll was almost 28,000, and when at least 115,000 black Africans were likewise swept into British camps, where 14,000 died, he wrote only of his "irritation that Kaffirs should be allowed to fire on white men".

Then as an MP he demanded a rolling programme of more conquests, based on his belief that "the Aryan stock is bound to triumph".

"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes...[It] would spread a lively terror."

"I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion."

To give just one, major, example, in 1943 a famine broke out in Bengal, caused – as the Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen has proved – by the imperial policies of the British. Up to 3 million people starved to death while British officials begged Churchill to direct food supplies to the region. He bluntly refused. He raged that it was their own fault for "breeding like rabbits". At other times, he said the plague was "merrily" culling the population.

Not his finest hour: The dark side of Winston Churchill

These are some of the controversies of Churchill. I have tried to include only areas where there are quotes from him to show his personal view. This is the person that Boris looks up to.

Havockk

And so... the great theft begins.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-43348103

I particularly enjoyed this bit .. "Knowsley Council says it intends to sell 17 parks and use the money raised to "forever" protect its remaining 144."

I'm willing to stake that 'forever' will probably not be as long as it used to be.

Christy42

Enzokk wrote: »

The best solution for Ireland is for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and single market, not necessarily for Northern Ireland. Well in fairness to the DUP they are probably looking at the figures that show that inter-UK trade for NI is almost 3 times as much as trade with the EU. You can play with the statistics a lot here on whether you include Ireland into EU trade numbers. That way you can lessen the impact of trade with Ireland against trade with the EU. As an example trade with Ireland is about one fifth of the trade that NI does with the UK. Now it makes sense to rather keep the arrangements with the UK intact than the open border with the EU.

But then if you include Ireland in the EU figures, just makes sense as Ireland doesn't have a border with the EU so there is no reason to treat trade with Ireland as different to trade with any other EU country the figures aren't that extremely weighted towards keeping the link to the UK versus the EU.

NI trade to UK - around £10bn
NI to EU trade - around £4bn
NI to Ireland trade - around £2.7bn (estimated numbers)

So excluding Ireland from EU trade really imbalances the figures so you would see the DUP be partial to these figures.

But it seems that the story regarding these figures are even more complex once you delve into what trade in Ireland and NI and the UK all entails. The trade with the UK is more for NI, but that trade is actually dependent on trade with Ireland as well as there is a reliance on Ireland for NI for raw materials that assists with the trade numbers with the UK. So if you take away trade with Ireland then not only will the total trade figures suffer but trade numbers with the UK will go down as well.



Additional Data Paper: Northern Ireland Trade Data and Statistics

Also, Northern Ireland runs a trade deficit with the EU of about £3bn with the EU.



What goods does Northern Ireland export, how much are they worth and where do they go?


It seems that the best solution for NI is not to stop trade with either the EU or the UK. Their best solution was to stay in the EU, which they voted for in fairness. The fact that the DUP wanted to leave the EU and is now in the middle of the UK government that is actively pursuing this course of action is staggering to say the least.

Excluding Ireland is not playing with them. It would be flat out lying. Trade with the Republic is trade with the EU and would be the equivalent of cutting out trade with Belgium.

Peregrinus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Holy Jesus Christ. The significance of that can't be understated. This is literally unbelievable.

Was this said in Parliament? . . . .

He said it in an interview with the Guardian which was published on 15 January. He may have repeated it in speeches since.

The increase in the 350 million figure is largely due to the decline in sterling which immediately followed the referendum result. The EU's budgetary contributions are of course denominated in Euros, so the fall in sterling means the UK needs to pay more, in sterling terms, to buy the euros they need to fulfill their budgetary commitments.

Johnson concedes that the figure is a gross figure and that "only about half" of it will become available to increase spending elsewhere. But he continues to defend it as a statement of the amount over which the UK will be "taking back control".

Johnson's recalculation takes account of the decline in sterling, but does not attempt to model the effect on government revenue if tax receipts lower as a result of Brexit depressing economic activity in the UK. The UK government's own modelling predicts a significant depressive effect.

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The man has authored several books.

The man was fired from his first job as a journalist for a gross violation of ethics. If he had been anyone but a public school and Oxford educated elite insider, he would never have worked in journalism again in any capacity.

But being who he was, he actually became editor of a national newspaper and a regular columnist.

He is the perfect example of the corruption of the UKs class system.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The man was fired from his first job as a journalist for a gross violation of ethics. If he had been anyone but a public school and Oxford educated elite insider, he would never have worked in journalism again in any capacity.

But being who he was, he actually became editor of a national newspaper and a regular columnist.

He is the perfect example of the corruption of the UKs class system.

You have got to hand it to him though, he is doing a very good job at what he does. People love him, people actually listen to what he has to say. He has got as far as Foreign Secretary for jebus sake.

Same as JRM. I saw a line from him in the papers yesterday, saying that he knows the problems caused by the Eilte, because he is one of them and thus best placed to fix them. He got that line directly from Trump.

But like the Bertie's and CJ's in Ireland, the UK love the elite rogue. Sure wouldn't we do the same in the same position. It is the ultimate fantasy. Be be in the Elite, and all the trappings, but also able to snub your nose at the elite etc.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

You have got to hand it to him though, he is doing a very good job at what he does. People love him, people actually listen to what he has to say. He has got as far as Foreign Secretary for jebus sake.

Well, that depends. If you think "what he does" is self-promotion at the expense of dignity and credibility, yes, he does a very good job of that. If you think "what he does" is serve as Foreign Secretary, maybe not so much.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Same as JRM. I saw a line from him in the papers yesterday, saying that he knows the problems caused by the Eilte, because he is one of them and thus best placed to fix them. He got that line directly from Trump.

"He got that line from Trump" is not really a recommendation!

blanch152

Enzokk wrote: »

The best solution for Ireland is for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and single market, not necessarily for Northern Ireland. Well in fairness to the DUP they are probably looking at the figures that show that inter-UK trade for NI is almost 3 times as much as trade with the EU. You can play with the statistics a lot here on whether you include Ireland into EU trade numbers. That way you can lessen the impact of trade with Ireland against trade with the EU. As an example trade with Ireland is about one fifth of the trade that NI does with the UK. Now it makes sense to rather keep the arrangements with the UK intact than the open border with the EU.

But then if you include Ireland in the EU figures, just makes sense as Ireland doesn't have a border with the EU so there is no reason to treat trade with Ireland as different to trade with any other EU country the figures aren't that extremely weighted towards keeping the link to the UK versus the EU.

NI trade to UK - around £10bn
NI to EU trade - around £4bn
NI to Ireland trade - around £2.7bn (estimated numbers)

So excluding Ireland from EU trade really imbalances the figures so you would see the DUP be partial to these figures.

But it seems that the story regarding these figures are even more complex once you delve into what trade in Ireland and NI and the UK all entails. The trade with the UK is more for NI, but that trade is actually dependent on trade with Ireland as well as there is a reliance on Ireland for NI for raw materials that assists with the trade numbers with the UK. So if you take away trade with Ireland then not only will the total trade figures suffer but trade numbers with the UK will go down as well.



Additional Data Paper: Northern Ireland Trade Data and Statistics

Also, Northern Ireland runs a trade deficit with the EU of about £3bn with the EU.



What goods does Northern Ireland export, how much are they worth and where do they go?


It seems that the best solution for NI is not to stop trade with either the EU or the UK. Their best solution was to stay in the EU, which they voted for in fairness. The fact that the DUP wanted to leave the EU and is now in the middle of the UK government that is actively pursuing this course of action is staggering to say the least.

When you read all of those statistics and consider what is best for Northern Ireland, the options read in the following order of preference:

(1) No Brexit
(2) Soft Brexit that means staying in the customs union and single market
(3) Special status for Northern Ireland that maintains trade links with UK
(4) Hard Brexit
(5) Special status for Northern Ireland that has a sea border

To me, it looks like only (4) and (5) are achievable. Varadkar is claiming (3) as being the default, but delivering on that without some kind of border control either on this island or between the islands is very difficult, maybe impossible.

If (3) is impossible, then (4) is the better option (of two very very bad options) for Northern Ireland than (5), given the trade numbers.

Apparently Downing St have been considering a plan to require people to 'pre-register' to avoid further checks when crossing the Irish border. Leo Varadkar has ruled this out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/12/brexit-varadkar-rejects-preregistration-irish-border-talks

Econ_

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Apparently Downing St have been considering a plan to require people to 'pre-register' to avoid further checks when crossing the Irish border. Leo Varadkar has ruled this out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/12/brexit-varadkar-rejects-preregistration-irish-border-talks

He should have said “No Taoiseach could ever agree to such a thing”

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Apparently Downing St have been considering a plan to require people to 'pre-register' to avoid further checks when crossing the Irish border. Leo Varadkar has ruled this out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/12/brexit-varadkar-rejects-preregistration-irish-border-talks

So now they are admitting that they are working on the basis of a border.

Doesn't that go against what they signed off on in December?

Econ_

Econ_ wrote: »

He should have said “No Taoiseach could ever agree to such a thing”

Apparently Theresa May & Co were looking at this document ('Smart Border 2.0: Avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland for customs control and the free movement of persons') and proceeded accordingly forgetting that there is not a 'no checks at all' border solution within it.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

Skedaddle

Leroy42 wrote: »

So now they are admitting that they are working on the basis of a border.

Doesn't that go against what they signed off on in December?

Well that agreement was just a pack of lies to get onto the money negotiations. Their erroneous assumption was that the EU wouldn't notice and treats Ireland with the same kind of dismissive contempt that they do.

I don't think you can underestimate how bad this looks if you're viewing it from Berlin, The Hague, Stockholm, Copenhagen etc etc. Credibility had all but evaporated. Nobody likes being lied to. You can have frank, tough negotiations but you don't twist facts like this.

They're spinning and distorting language in a really shockingly cavalier way. It's extremely bad for the UKs long term interests as there burning bridges much like Trump.

_Puma_

Clear from the latest Tory kite flying that they intend on tearing up the Good Friday Agreement. Leo and Coveney caught with their trousers down with the timing set to coincide with them off on their St. Patricks day Junkets. It has been plainly obvious since December that the DUP and Theresa Mays government will not allow the GFA to get in the way of Brexit. They are "having their cake and eating it" with regards to Northern Ireland. They have set course for the Northern Ireland Ship and unfortunately our government as supposed co-pilots have just been sidelined as the iceberg looms large on the horizon.

Another disaster to add to Coveneys ministerial portfolio and Leo's spin no substance government. We badly need a change if we can even begin to prepare for the fallout Brexit is about to bring to peoples lives on this Island.

Skedaddle

If they tear up the GFA, it will be their fault. The Irish government and the EU is doing its utmost to protect it.

If the Tories are determined to cause chaos in Northern Ireland there's very little we can do. We also have no powerful allies in the US at present as the Trump administration is unlikely to know anything about it or may even side with the Tories.

Although the Irish American population, including on the right, may not be overly keen on Trump supporting that kind of thing and really need to be communicated with about what's going on.