Brexit discussion thread III

Leroy42

_Puma_ wrote: »

Clear from the latest Tory kite flying that they intend on tearing up the Good Friday Agreement. Leo and Coveney caught with their trousers down with the timing set to coincide with them off on their St. Patricks day Junkets. It has been plainly obvious since December that the DUP and Theresa Mays government will not allow the GFA to get in the way of Brexit. They are "having their cake and eating it" with regards to Northern Ireland. They have set course for the Northern Ireland Ship and unfortunately our government as supposed co-pilots have just been sidelined as the iceberg looms large on the horizon.

Another disaster to add to Coveneys ministerial portfolio and Leo's spin no substance government. We badly need a change if we can even begin to prepare for the fallout Brexit is about to bring to peoples lives on this Island.

So what should Leo and Coveney be doing then to avert this?

Water John

I think Puma wrote his post to get at all the angles that are personal to him.
Hit Varadkar, tick. Hit Coveney, tick. Hit St Patrick's Day trips, tick.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what should Leo and Coveney be doing then to avert this?

Stick with their friends. 'Ireland First'.

Call me Al

Skedaddle wrote: »

Well that agreement was just a pack of lies to get onto the money negotiations. Their erroneous assumption was that the EU wouldn't notice and treats Ireland with the same kind of dismissive contempt that they do.

I don't think you can underestimate how bad this looks if you're viewing it from Berlin, The Hague, Stockholm, Copenhagen etc etc. Credibility had all but evaporated. Nobody likes being lied to. You can have frank, tough negotiations but you don't twist facts like this.

They're spinning and distorting language in a really shockingly cavalier way. It's extremely bad for the UKs long term interests as there burning bridges much like Trump.

I completely agree with you 're their cavalier attitude.
It screams of desperation on the part of the UK. They are scrambling around, with no idea how to meet commitments they've given to their citizens or the EU, simply saying what they have to in the hope that the EU will throw them a lifeline and drag them along.

_Puma_

Skedaddle wrote: »

If they tear up the GFA, it will be their fault. The Irish government and the EU is doing its utmost to protect it.

If the Tories are determined to cause chaos in Northern Ireland there's very little we can do. We also have no powerful allies in the US at present as the Trump administration is unlikely to know anything about it or may even side with the Tories.

Although the Irish American population, including on the right, may not be overly keen on Trump supporting that kind of thing and really need to be communicated with about what's going on.

Our naive position since Brexit has been that the British government would not dream of undermining the Good Friday agreement but there has been a decided shift since December on that position by Theresa May. The "rebranding" of the Good Friday agreement to the "belfast agreement" in the British media by HMG was the first indication.

We are treating the Tory government the same as previous administrations and the Tories are no friend of Ireland as much as Leo would hope they are. The other "safeguard" being the American influence has also evaporated.

Unfortunately Leo and Coveney failed to outline our own Red lines with negotiations with the british government as co guarantors of the GFA. Because of this failure the GFA is now about to sidelined and there is very little we can do. I cant see the EU intervening on the behalf of our government as the GFA was between Ireland and Britain and when the push comes to shove we have failed diplomatically with our own negotiations directly with the British Government and the remnants of the Northern executive.

Skedaddle

To be fair, Coveney and Varadkar have outlined our 'red lines' very firmly - to the point that the EU is insisting that they be respected.

The problem is the Tories and other Arch Brexiteers (I'm not going to blame the UK population as a whole for this) are prepared to crash out of the EU without any deal, if they can't get one.

We only have as much leverage as the carrot of access to the market is. If they don't want access to the market, and are prepared to take whatever consequences come with that, that's our leverage gone.

If the UK's absolutely determined to leave the EU, burn all of its bridges and cut all ties - Northern Ireland melting into chaos is one of the potential consequences. They are making that choice. Everyone else is trying to talk them around to a sane position. They aren't listening.

Also bear in mind it's the Brexiteers and Tories intention to cause political fractures here. While parties in Ireland don't agree on issues like economic philosophies, they all need to keep the line on this, as they all do share a similar outlook on Brexit whether they're FG or SF, they're all on the same page really on Brexit.

I think this is one area where Ireland's political system can present a united front and pull in whatever leverage, soft power and network they have. It's a common cause.

_Puma_

Water John wrote: »

I think Puma wrote his post to get at all the angles that are personal to him.
Hit Varadkar, tick. Hit Coveney, tick. Hit St Patrick's Day trips, tick.

Cant say I'm particularly happy with our current governments internal policies but this is bigger than internal Irish politics. No matter who is head of our government we should be doing everything within our power to hold Theresa's Mays government to account regarding their obligations to the GFA. We have failed so far.

We should be approaching negations on this basis in addition to the EU red lines around the Customs Union and trade agreements. The GFA should have been an obstacle to the Theresa Mays' current position, we have just allowed her to bypass it.

Leroy42

_Puma_ wrote: »

Our naive position since Brexit has been that the British government would not dream of undermining the Good Friday agreement but there has been a decided shift since December on that position by Theresa May. The "rebranding" of the Good Friday agreement to the "belfast agreement" in the British media by HMG was the first indication.

We are treating the Tory government the same as previous administrations and the Tories are no friend of Ireland as much as Leo would hope they are. The other "safeguard" being the American influence has also evaporated.

Unfortunately Leo and Coveney failed to outline our own Red lines with negotiations with the british government as co guarantors of the GFA. Because of this failure the GFA is now about to sidelined and there is very little we can do. I cant see the EU intervening on the behalf of our government as the GFA was between Ireland and Britain and when the push comes to shove we have failed diplomatically with our own negotiations directly with the British Government and the remnants of the Northern executive.

And again, what is it that you think they should do. They have given red lines, they want to border and the GFA to be honoured.

It is the UK that are moving away from it and what should they do to stop it? Maybe kick them out of the EU? Or how about we stop trading with them? Or a strongly worded letter perhaps?

They (UK) are choosing this, we have done about as much as possible to try to avoid it. We have got the entire EU to back us up and yet the UK seem intent on lying to them as well.

blanch152

_Puma_ wrote: »

Our naive position since Brexit has been that the British government would not dream of undermining the Good Friday agreement but there has been a decided shift since December on that position by Theresa May. The "rebranding" of the Good Friday agreement to the "belfast agreement" in the British media by HMG was the first indication.

We are treating the Tory government the same as previous administrations and the Tories are no friend of Ireland as much as Leo would hope they are. The other "safeguard" being the American influence has also evaporated.

Unfortunately Leo and Coveney failed to outline our own Red lines with negotiations with the british government as co guarantors of the GFA. Because of this failure the GFA is now about to sidelined and there is very little we can do. I cant see the EU intervening on the behalf of our government as the GFA was between Ireland and Britain and when the push comes to shove we have failed diplomatically with our own negotiations directly with the British Government and the remnants of the Northern executive.

When you read the detail of the GFA you realise that it does not preclude a hard border of types.

If there is a hard border, the UK is likely to be in breach of the December agreement but not the GFA. Of course, if a hard border is a negotiated outcome, then the UK are not in breach of the December agreement.

Ireland could well be left between a rock and a hard place. A negotiated outcome between the EU and the UK that provides a hard border with some opt-outs (probably around agriculture) or rejecting that agreement and a no-deal exit with Ireland taking the blame.

Zubeneschamali

_Puma_ wrote: »

Another disaster to add to Coveneys ministerial portfolio and Leo's spin no substance government.

Eh, nothing whatsoever has happened, how is that a disaster?

We already know how this will go - the UK might propose this, the EU will shoot it down instantly, pointing out that it is less then the UK already agreed in phase 1.

Enzokk

_Puma_ wrote: »

Cant say I'm particularly happy with our current governments internal policies but this is bigger than internal Irish politics. No matter who is head of our government we should be doing everything within our power to hold the Theresa's Mays government to account regarding their obligations to it. We have failed so far.

What can any country do if another country breaks an international treaty? Where do we take our complaints to and who will actually act against the UK?

Have you read this paper from the EU on Northern Ireland? The Impact and Consequences of Brexit for
Northern Ireland. The EU is very much aware of the impact of Brexit on the GFA and the consequences it will have. There will have to be changes to it to delete some mentions of the EU so we are going to have to start there at least.

murphaph

_Puma_ wrote: »

Cant say I'm particularly happy with our current governments internal policies but this is bigger than internal Irish politics. No matter who is head of our government we should be doing everything within our power to hold Theresa's Mays government to account regarding their obligations to the GFA. We have failed so far.

We should be approaching negations on this basis in addition to the EU red lines around the Customs Union and trade agreements. The GFA should have been an obstacle to the Theresa Mays' current position, we have just allowed her to bypass it.

We must be reading different news reports. I don't see how Ireland could have done better diplomatically. Right at this moment the President of the European Council quite clearly stated that it's "Ireland first". How much more do you expect?

Enzokk

blanch152 wrote: »

If there is a hard border, the UK is likely to be in breach of the December agreement but not the GFA. Of course, if a hard border is a negotiated outcome, then the UK are not in breach of the December agreement.

Ireland could well be left between a rock and a hard place. A negotiated outcome between the EU and the UK that provides a hard border with some opt-outs (probably around agriculture) or rejecting that agreement and a no-deal exit with Ireland taking the blame.

Why would the EU negotiate a border when it has an agreement with the UK that it will ensure that there will be no regulatory divergence (or whatever the wording was) if there is no agreement?

Skedaddle

The problem is that if the UK Government does not really place any value on EU membership, then we have no power in this as they will just crash out without a deal and accept whatever consequences that brings, including the Northern Ireland chaos.

Ultimately, how that might play out in UK politics is an unknown. However, in the medium term it could end up with a hard border between the two jurisdictions on this island.

We have a lot of cultural linkages to the US that give us soft power in a way that very few countries have. However, it's not an organised lobby and it's on both sides of the house. All we can do is really appeal to Irish-Americans to start to pay attention to what's going on and to start asking their reps to do something about it.

That's further complicated by the fact that Trump appears to hate the EU, is politically similar to the Brexiteers and is threatening a trade war against it. We have no idea how that might play out.

My view of it is we just need to all stay on side on this. While we all may disagree on Irish domestic policies around housing, healthcare, taxation and all sorts of other things, this is on thing that is an Irish interest, regardless of what your political outlook is.

Also, it looks like the EU is genuinely on our side on this. We're the EU member, the UK is the former member that's constantly trying to undermine the EU as a concept, never mind just leaving it. It seems almost like it's determined to take a wrecking ball to it, if at all possible. So, of course we have solitary from our EU counterparts.

We also have to remember that the UK cannot single Ireland out for sanctions, no matter how pissed off they are with us. You could get some organised boycott of Irish goods on an informal basis, but I don't think you really would, other than by a few extreme Brexiteers. However, if they tried to take sanctions against Ireland, they would have to take them against the entire EU.

So, in some ways we have a lot of shelter from UK bonkers reactions.

It's a very strange situation and I don't think anything other than a major shift in UK politics is going to resolve it.

It also shows to me that the UK-Irish relationship is very much not something we should have been relying on and we now need to ensure that we are never put in this position again. That means broadening our EU and global connections and never being as exposed to the UK as we have been.

There's not much point in blaming the Irish system for this. Nobody in their right mind would have ever assumed that this kind of UK policy could have become reality. Most countries trade with and link with their neighbours quite deeply. You don't expect the rug pulled out from under you like this.

What it says to me is that Ireland really can't trust the UK. We lulled ourselves into a false sense of security over the last few decades.

_Puma_

Leroy42 wrote: »

And again, what is it that you think they should do. They have given red lines, they want to border and the GFA to be honoured.

It is the UK that are moving away from it and what should they do to stop it? Maybe kick them out of the EU? Or how about we stop trading with them? Or a strongly worded letter perhaps?

They (UK) are choosing this, we have done about as much as possible to try to avoid it. We have got the entire EU to back us up and yet the UK seem intent on lying to them as well.

First off I think it has been a mistake allow our negotiations with the British around the GFA to be encompassed by the EU 27 negotiations. It has just allowed Theresa May to throw the GFA under the brexit bus that is now picking up steam for a Hard brexit.

We should have been in negotiations with the British government and the NI parties to resolve the NI Executive impasse with some sort of a cross party agreement (with or without the DUP and SF).

The British decision to leave the EU should not absolve them of all responsibilities around the GFA but that is exactly what they are now doing and we as co-guarantors have allowed them.

Skedaddle

_Puma_ wrote: »

First off I think it has been a mistake allow our negotiations with the British around the GFA to be encompassed by the EU 27 negotiations. It has just allowed Theresa May to throw the GFA under the brexit bus that is now picking up steam for a Hard brexit.

We should have been in negotiations with the British government and the NI parties to resolve the NI Executive impasse with some sort of a cross party agreement (with or without the DUP and SF).

The British decision to leave the EU should not absolve them of all responsibilities around the GFA but that is exactly what they are now doing and we as co-guarantors have allowed them.

There are many problems with that.

1. The Northern Ireland executive is not in existence at present, thanks to the dogmatic position of the DUP by the looks of it.

2. The DUP is propping up the UK government and making it impossible to deal with on an unbiased basis.

2a : The Brexiteers have no interest in negotiating with Ireland. They don't respect us at all and see us as at best a stumbling block to be stepped over / kicked out of the way.

3. What power do we have to enforce the GFA right now? It's an internationally registered agreement, without any kind of court structure to enforce it. By rolling it into the EU negations, we have actually given it serious meaning. If they screw up the GFA, it will cost them a huge % of their GDP and burn their bridges with the EU.

If Ireland were trying to enforce this as a separate issue, what exactly could we do to compel the UK to take it seriously? Go to the UN? That could take years and would probably result in some wishy-washy decision that would have no enforcement powers at all, other than Ireland possibly being given the status of having the moral high ground.

We would end up with a UK-EU agreement that didn't consider the GFA at all, and then having to figure out some kind of solution to NI in retrospect, outside the context of the EU negotiations. I fail to see how that would be any better. It looks a whole lot worse.

We are left in a really awkward position here and we are using the only leverage we have, which is basally a veto over the EU negotiation process and we have said that we are prepared to use that and seemingly have the full backing of the European Commission and several large member states.

_Puma_

Skedaddle wrote: »

The problem is that if the UK Government does not really place any value on EU membership, then we have no power in this as they will just crash out without a deal and accept whatever consequences that brings, including the Northern Ireland chaos.

Ultimately, how that might play out in UK politics is an unknown. However, in the medium term it could end up with a hard border between the two jurisdictions on this island.

We have a lot of cultural linkages to the US that give us soft power in a way that very few countries have. However, it's not an organised lobby and it's on both sides of the house. All we can do is really appeal to Irish-Americans to start to pay attention to what's going on and to start asking their reps to do something about it.

That's further complicated by the fact that Trump appears to hate the EU, is politically similar to the Brexiteers and is threatening a trade war against it. We have no idea how that might play out.

My view of it is we just need to all stay on side on this. While we all may disagree on Irish domestic policies around housing, healthcare, taxation and all sorts of other things, this is on thing that is an Irish interest, regardless of what your political outlook is.

Also, it looks like the EU is genuinely on our side on this. We're the EU member, the UK is the former member that's constantly trying to undermine the EU as a concept, never mind just leaving it. It seems almost like it's determined to take a wrecking ball to it, if at all possible. So, of course we have solitary from our EU counterparts.

We also have to remember that the UK cannot single Ireland out for sanctions, no matter how pissed off they are with us. You could get some organised boycott of Irish goods on an informal basis, but I don't think you really would, other than by a few extreme Brexiteers. However, if they tried to take sanctions against Ireland, they would have to take them against the entire EU.

So, in some ways we have a lot of shelter from UK bonkers reactions.

It's a very strange situation and I don't think anything other than a major shift in UK politics is going to resolve it.

It also shows to me that the UK-Irish relationship is very much not something we should have been relying on and we now need to ensure that we are never put in this position again. That means broadening our EU and global connections and never being as exposed to the UK as we have been.

There's not much point in blaming the Irish system for this. Nobody in their right mind would have ever assumed that this kind of UK policy could have become reality. Most countries trade with and link with their neighbours quite deeply. You don't expect the rug pulled out from under you like this.

What it says to me is that Ireland really can't trust the UK. We lulled ourselves into a false sense of security over the last few decades.

Have to agree with most of this. Our government needs to get real with the British around NI. While its a given to have the EU27 on side for Brexit negotiations we need to be a lot stronger around the future of NI. We have a long and experienced history with negations with the British in the foreign affairs department, lets use it and get something meaningful around NI post brexit.

Infini

Lets be honest here there's no failure on Irelands part here. All this is on the UKs side. If they want a hard border against the wishes of the people here they'll find that there will be a very steep price for this as in No Deal. I honestly cannot see any deal happening without it being acceptable to us.

Why? Because the UK has essentially become untrustworthy thanks to the Brexiteers. If a hard border comes about and NI suffers badly because of it you will see the likes of a UI becoming a serious possibility. The EU isnt going to abandon or sell us short simply because we did not wish for this at all and weve all the same interests.

Skedaddle

How the heck do you negotiate rationally with Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary and the DUP effectively in the UK Government in all but name.

That's what we're dealing with here.

This isn't 'business as usual' in the UK. It's basically "one nation, under the Sun, the Daily Express, etc etc..|"

Let's be honest here too: we are not dealing with the UK that we have been used to since the end of the Thatcher era. In fact, I think we would have more hope of a negotiation with Thatcher, despite her formidable reputation she was logical and reasonable. So, if anything this situation is far worse than the 1980s.

I'm not sure that our diplomatic links are any use as the UK Government is ignoring its own diplomats by the looks of things. They're just more damned experts getting in the way of a glorious Brexit! It's quashed and hidden reports from its own civil service!?! That's really unprecedented. We are down the rabbit hole and through the looking glass over there.

This is a jingoistic government, backed by an even more jingoistic press that is behaving extremely irrationally and is operating in a global environment that has the most bizarre, right wing US president in history in office.

It's a very strange set of circumstances.

The only thing that really would suit Ireland is if the UK has a general election before May 2019 and there's a radical change of direction. Otherwise ... this is likely to happen, and they won't give a hoot about the consequences.

I don't really think blaming ourselves for our neighbours' nosedive into crazy politics is going to achieve anything here.

It worries me too as Ireland has a tremendous ability to self-destructively naval gaze at times. This is quite genuinely external factors that are almost beyond our control. All we can do is attempt to influence.

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

We must be reading different news reports. I don't see how Ireland could have done better diplomatically. Right at this moment the President of the European Council quite clearly stated that it's "Ireland first". How much more do you expect?

I'm not an admirer of Varadkar, but it is hard to see what else he can do other than he has done. I don't see much in way of suggestions as to what else he could have done except the usual views that he should apologise to Britain for being independent.

Unfortunately, the British government have become delinquent and have lost the run of themselves. Sometimes I wonder if May is pandering to the lunatics and allowing nonsense ideas be discussed, knowing that they cannot succeed in the end.

And while Trump might not be focussed on Ireland, it would be relatively easy to spin a line about upper class English elite twits bullying the ordinary Irish to his supporters and it would have the advantage over his other propoganda of being true.

pixelburp

I'm guessing with the US State Department pretty gutted and understaffed at the moment, the chances of any American intervention in all this is minimal, if not nil. Plenty of Stateside bigwigs and intelligence experts have warned that these intentionally hugs gaps in the department will only erode America's ability to wield its (in)famous 'Soft Power', and I'd say this whole issue of Ireland and the border is the first big example of said erosion in effect. In all likelihood, there's literally nobody in the State Department monitoring or keeping open lines of communication on this state of affairs, and thus nobody to push the info up the chain to the Oval Office.

_Puma_

Skedaddle wrote: »

How the heck do you negotiate rationally with Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary?
That's what we're dealing with her.

This isn't 'business as usual' in the UK. It's basically "one nation, under the Sun, the Daily Express, etc etc..|"

Let's be honest here too: we are not dealing with the UK that we have been used to since the end of the Thatcher era. This is a jingoistic government, backed by an even more jingoistic press that is behaving extremely irrationally and is operating in a global environment that has the most bizarre, right wing US president in history in office.

It's a very strange set of circumstances.

Back in November the Foreign office had basically told the department of foreign affairs to ignore Boris Johnson. These are the people we are negotiating with. People like Boris Johnson will hang their hat on what ever outcome these negotiations come to.

I'd be of the opinion that these negotiations should now be stepped up along with the Northern Executive parties. The current British position around NI should not be allowed to continue and failure to address it will just allow the the status quo to continue until Brexit when the DUP and Tories will walk off into the sunset and we will be left to pick up the pieces.

Skedaddle

I think if this is really still spinning out of control by the end of the summer, we need to start pointing out that this is the Downton Abbey brigade about to ride the carriage and horses over the Irish, nationalist, catholic, downtrodden community once again.

While Irish Americans aren't a defined lobby in the sense that they're as likely to be found in Trump's cabinet as they are to be found in the left of the Democratic Party, they do all tend to share a link to the 'old country' and do not like to see Ireland being beaten up by British aristocratic types.

Also, we are working our networks in the EU and I think there's an underestimation of just how much that particular aspect of English upper-class, elitist types who go around with a superior attitude irritates the hell of of most people in European circles too.

It's not England or the UK that they dislike, it's that jingoistic snobbish aristocratic element that just rubs everyone up the wrong way. People are seeing Ireland's point of view on this. I have seen that very clearly in France and in Brussels recently.

Skedaddle

_Puma_ wrote: »

Back in November the Foreign office had basically told the department of foreign affairs to ignore Boris Johnson. These are the people we are negotiating with. People like Boris Johnson will hang their hat on what ever outcome these negotiations come to.

I'd be of the opinion that these negotiations should now be stepped up along with the Northern Executive parties. The current British position around NI should not be allowed to continue and failure to address it will just allow the the status quo to continue until Brexit when the DUP and Tories will walk off into the sunset and we will be left to pick up the pieces.

That's more indicative of the growing disconnect between UK civil service and officialdom and the Tories. The civil service may talk, but they're not setting policy and they're being ignored.

If you look at what's going on in Brussels. I actually feel sorry for the British negotiators from the civil service and diplomatic corps. They're turning up at meetings having to negotiate with the EU without any policies to base those negotiations on. The Government is adopting ridiculous positions and changing them at a whim and leaving the diplomats and civil service in impossible and embarrassing positions all the time.

I'm sure that the Irish government and diplomatic corps are talking to their UK counterparts all the time. That isn't influencing Brexiteer policies though.

Leroy42

So PUMA, are you suggesting that we break away from the current single EU position to a situation where we negotiate directly with the UK over NI and let the EU negotiate over Brexit?

Even though NI is a direct result of Brexit and the UK are following the line that Brexit deal will make sense since the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

With that line of thinking, how do you think they will approach any negotiations with us? Did the terms of the GFA stop May from getting into bed with the DUP (because it really should have). Did the GFA mean that HMG forced the DUP to get power sharing back running?

The likes of JRM have stated that a hard border will hurt us more than the UK, that Ireland should be on the UK side. That is exactly what they want. They want a divided EU. They know that as a unified group the EU is far more powerful than the EU, but is they can pick apart the club they get exactly what they want. Brexit can be a success if the EU implodes.

So Ireland has made it clear what it wants, it has the backing of the EU over its position and even though they signalled their absolute commitment to avoid a hard border the UK are actively looking to create one.

Sometimes there is simplu negotiation to be done when the other party does not value your position at all.

blanch152

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would the EU negotiate a border when it has an agreement with the UK that it will ensure that there will be no regulatory divergence (or whatever the wording was) if there is no agreement?

The agreement states that the UK is committed to no regulatory divergence.

The EU made no commitments or agreements on the border in the December agreement. It was all one-sided commitments from the UK.

If the UK negotiates an alternative with the EU, then the UK is off the hook. The problem for Ireland is whether we would ratify such an outcome, but if the alternative is a no-agreement Brexit, we would have a difficult decision. I am not saying it will come to that, but it is certainly possible.

Skedaddle

The other aspect to remember is the UK generally has a completely over-inflated sense of how much leverage it has.

When push comes to shove, they will have to deal with the reality that the EU is prepared to let them walk away with no agreement as the EU knows that they will have to come crawling back looking for one.

The EU can absolutely survive without the UK and is far more robust than the UK media and political world thinks. With or without the UK, it remains a HUGE economic power.

Also, there are a lot of countries who have a BIG interest in holding the line on this. You have a lot of Brexiteer-style movements bubbling away in France, Germany and so on and no European centrist government wants to hand a PR coup to the likes of the Front National, AfD or similar. In many cases, aspects of those movements are far worse than UKIP as they've elements of old fascist movements in them - it's not just jingoism.

I have a feeling a harsh dose of economic and political reality is on the way.

My prediction is that if you've a hard Brexit, the UK will be back to 1970s levels of political and social instability within a few months if the economy starts to contract. There's still a lot more potential chaos to run.

Zubeneschamali

Skedaddle wrote: »

The problem is that if the UK Government does not really place any value on EU membership, then we have no power in this as they will just crash out without a deal and accept whatever consequences that brings, including the Northern Ireland chaos.

No, they really won't. A no-deal crash-out would be an absolute disaster for the UK, and as it draws near, they will cave.

It would hurt us a lot too, and the EU to a lesser extent, but the UK would be looking at food riots. It is unthinkable.

_Puma_

Leroy42 wrote: »

So PUMA, are you suggesting that we break away from the current single EU position to a situation where we negotiate directly with the UK over NI and let the EU negotiate over Brexit?

Even though NI is a direct result of Brexit and the UK are following the line that Brexit deal will make sense since the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

With that line of thinking, how do you think they will approach any negotiations with us? Did the terms of the GFA stop May from getting into bed with the DUP (because it really should have). Did the GFA mean that HMG forced the DUP to get power sharing back running?

The likes of JRM have stated that a hard border will hurt us more than the UK, that Ireland should be on the UK side. That is exactly what they want. They want a divided EU. They know that as a unified group the EU is far more powerful than the EU, but is they can pick apart the club they get exactly what they want. Brexit can be a success if the EU implodes.

So Ireland has made it clear what it wants, it has the backing of the EU over its position and even though they signalled their absolute commitment to avoid a hard border the UK are actively looking to create one.

Sometimes there is simplu negotiation to be done when the other party does not value your position at all.

The question you should be asking is do you rely on the EU to negotiate the terms of the GFA on our behalf while the UK continues to treat the EU negotiations as some sort of take it or leave it outcome.

It hasn't worked so far and with the latest developments we will soon be going beyond the point of no return regarding Anglo-Irish diplomacy. Its time for our government to make very important decisions on their policy with UK post brexit.

Whatever the outcome of Brexit we should still be doing everything within our power to negotiate with the British options that are workable on all sides for the future of NI. Sometimes you have to do the dogwork even though you haven't caused the problem

Lemming

_Puma_ wrote: »

Have to agree with most of this. Our government needs to get real with the British around NI. While its a given to have the EU27 on side for Brexit negotiations we need to be a lot stronger around the future of NI. We have a long and experienced history with negations with the British in the foreign affairs department, lets use it and get something meaningful around NI post brexit.

Puma, you fail to consider one very important point in the above highlighted comment (bold emphasis mine to draw attention to it); the UK civil servants whom would be doing all the negotiation have been given no direction (regards Brexit) to pursue by their political masters, making discussions defacto irrelevant. Until the UK cabinet know what they want politically, such negotiations are dead in the water.

Skedaddle

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, they really won't. A no-deal crash-out would be an absolute disaster for the UK, and as it draws near, they will cave.

It would hurt us a lot too, and the EU to a lesser extent, but the UK would be looking at food riots. It is unthinkable.

Well that's the assumption that most of those in the markets appear to be working on, which is why there hasn't been a run on UK assets, yet.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Apparently Downing St have been considering a plan to require people to 'pre-register' to avoid further checks when crossing the Irish border. Leo Varadkar has ruled this out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/12/brexit-varadkar-rejects-preregistration-irish-border-talks

Econ_ wrote: »

He should have said “No Taoiseach could ever agree to such a thing”

Leroy42 wrote: »

So now they are admitting that they are working on the basis of a border.

Doesn't that go against what they signed off on in December?

Deleted User wrote: »

Apparently Theresa May & Co were looking at this document ('Smart Border 2.0: Avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland for customs control and the free movement of persons') and proceeded accordingly forgetting that there is not a 'no checks at all' border solution within it.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

This story has been on the boil for a couple of days now but, actually, it may be boiling a little bit too hard. There may be less in this than meets the eye. As I see it:

1. The UK are, a little too late, appalled at what they signed up to in the Phase 1 Report as regards "full regulatory alignment" in NI if nothing else can be agreed. They are desperate to agree something else.

2. To that end, it's beginning to dawn on them that they really do need to come up with some colourable detail on one or other of their alternative solutions, a really good FTA or magic technology. There is little chance of the EU agreeing to these things if the UK cannot even explain what they are.

3. To this end, they are casting around a bit for ideas - they have none themselves, naturally - and they have fallen with glad cries on this report on technological measures to reduce the impact of borders. It was prepared by a consultant for a committee of the European Parliament. It has been in the public domain for some time.

4. This is the report which May has ordered officials to "consider". Right enough, one of the (many, many) measures discussed in the report is pre-registration for those intending to cross the border, to minimise delay at the actual border.

5. But it's very unlikely that that particular measure is something the UK will spend much time "considering", or that it will have much attraction for them. The Irish border is not a migration border, because of the Common Travel Area which has been in place since 1952. The UK propose to continue the CTA, so they do not intend to erect migration controls on the Irish border. Thus this particular measure is aimed at solving a problem which doesn't arise in the context of the NI border.

6. If Brexit proceeds according to May's red lines, the Irish border will become a customs border (because the UK will be pursuing an independent customs policy) and a regulatory border (because the UK will be pursuing regulatory independence). This means that the UK is not at all concerned about the people who cross the border; it is concerned about the goods which cross the border.

7. They might propose a pre-registration mechanism for consignments of goods. This wouldn't affect travellers at all but it would affect, e.g., the drivers of freight lorries. There are suggestions like having separate traffic lanes for freight and passenger traffic, with barriers on the freight lanes which the driver of a pre-registered consignment can raise with an app on his phone. This won't appeal to Ireland, since it involves border infrastructure and pre-checks, and will still represent a non-tariff barrier to trade, and the EU will be slow to accept it because the alternative which the UK are already comimitted to as a default is "full regulatory alignment", which avoids all this.

8. Thus panic about Irish citizens having to pre-register with the UK government to move around Ireland is misplaced. Nothing like that was ever likely to emerge from May's "consideration" of this report.

Leroy42

_Puma_ wrote: »

The question you should be asking is do you rely on the EU to negotiate the terms of the GFA on our behalf while the UK continues to treat the EU negotiations as some sort of take it or leave it outcome.

It hasn't worked so far and with the latest developments we will soon be going beyond the point of no return regarding Anglo-Irish diplomacy. Its time for our government to make very important decisions on their policy with UK post brexit.

Whatever the outcome of Brexit we should still be doing everything within our power to negotiate with the British options that are workable on all sides for the future of NI. Sometimes you have to do the dogwork even though you haven't caused the problem

I really think you are letting your dislike of FG etc to cloud your opinion.

EU are not negotiation the GFA, they are trying to hold the UK to the terms of it. Brexit, and particularly the form of Brexit that they have outlined, causes serious issues in terms of the present GFA.

The EU are, IMO, not overly worried about the GFA itself, rather than it places a large responsibility on the UK and that responsibility fits in nicely with the areas that the EU hold dear.

But at the end of the day, the UK are seemingly intent on pursing their vision of Brexit regardless of the potential consequences, NI being one of the main ones.

Normally in a negotiation you appeal to the other sides financial interests, moral standing on upholding the laws and agreements and by trying to show them that they are better off with your proposals.

Each of these have been pointed out many times to the UK, but each time they are simply dismissed with a "BRexit means Brexit" or "its what people voted for".

Ireland has been trying to get through to the UK. Leo recently had a meeting and a phone call with May. We have lobbied very hard in the EU, even (according to RTE correspondent Connolly) being given direct access to Barnier, access which other countries need to request each time.

We have had George Mitchell (US) saying that hard border would be very dangerous for NI. What we have got back is a number of UK MP saying that possibly the GFA has outlived it usefulness.

But all that apart, you seem to be suggesting that Leo and Simon simply need to try harder, be more active.

Can you point out how much time they have spent on this and how much extra you feel they should have spent?

J Mysterio

_Puma_ wrote: »

Clear from the latest Tory kite flying that they intend on tearing up the Good Friday Agreement. Leo and Coveney caught with their trousers down with the timing set to coincide with them off on their St. Patricks day Junkets.

It's actually perfect timing.

All the ministers can go on their diplomatic missions around the world where they will be welcomed by hosts in green, celebrating our culture. We can then stress the duplicity of the English (not a new theme for us), and that should get traction. It would anyway, but particularly so for the day that's in it, where everyone wants to have a pint and don the green jersey.

Peregrinus

_Puma_ wrote: »

The question you should be asking is do you rely on the EU to negotiate the terms of the GFA on our behalf while the UK continues to treat the EU negotiations as some sort of take it or leave it outcome.

It hasn't worked so far and with the latest developments we will soon be going beyond the point of no return regarding Anglo-Irish diplomacy. Its time for our government to make very important decisions on their policy with UK post brexit.

Whatever the outcome of Brexit we should still be doing everything within our power to negotiate with the British options that are workable on all sides for the future of NI. Sometimes you have to do the dogwork even though you haven't caused the problem

The Good Friday Agreement is not being negotiated by the EU, or by anyone else. Nobody is proposing any change to the GFA. A hard border, were it to be introduced, would not be a violation of the GFA. (It would alter the context within which the GFA operates, but that is not the same thing. The changed context might lead one side or the other to suggest that the GFA needed revision to take account of the changed circumstances.)

The GFA is an agreement between Ireland and the UK (and the political parties in Ireland). The EU is not a party to it. If and when the amendment of the GFA becomes a live issue, those negotiations will be between Ireland and the UK.

It would not be a good idea for Ireland to open, or take part in, any negotiations about altering the GFA in the light of Brexit. That would be seen as accepting that Brexit is going to lead to a hard border, and that is not something it is in our interests to accept. If nothing else, it would seriously undermine the EU's attempt to hold the line on resisting a hard border Brexit.

J Mysterio

pixelburp wrote: »

I'm guessing with the US State Department pretty gutted and understaffed at the moment, the chances of any American intervention in all this is minimal, if not nil. Plenty of Stateside bigwigs and intelligence experts have warned that these intentionally hugs gaps in the department will only erode America's ability to wield its (in)famous 'Soft Power', and I'd say this whole issue of Ireland and the border is the first big example of said erosion in effect. In all likelihood, there's literally nobody in the State Department monitoring or keeping open lines of communication on this state of affairs, and thus nobody to push the info up the chain to the Oval Office.

While I agree with this for the most part, Irish Americans still have influence in Washington and they are passionate about Ireland.

I also recall that the US were to send a new special envoy to NI, though I don't know what the status of this is at the moment.

Charles Babbage

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Good Friday Agreement is not being negotiated by the EU, or by anyone else. Nobody is proposing any change to the GFA. A hard border, were it to be introduced, would not be a violation of the GFA. (It would alter the context within which the GFA operates, but that is not the same thing. The changed context might lead one side or the other to suggest that the GFA needed revision to take account of the changed circumstances.)

The GFA requires consultation both within the communities in NI and with the Irish government. If Britain unilaterally imposes a border over the heads of all of these then it has ended the GFA. There is no question of a "revised" GFA to take account of this, if talks were convened the first item on the agenda would be removing the hard border. The only thing to talk about then would be mechanics of a border poll.

You are repeating the same weasal words of the Brexiteers that because there isn't a line in the GFA on this exact matter that the British can consequently do what they like.

Peregrinus

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The GFA requires consultation both within the communities in NI and with the Irish government. If Britain unilaterally imposes a border over the heads of all of these then it has ended the GFA. There is no question of a "revised" GFA to take account of this, if talks were convened the first item on the agenda would be removing the hard border.

Imposing a border does not end the GFA.

Charles Babbage wrote: »

You are repeating the same weasal words of the Brexiteers that because there isn't a line in the GFA on this exact matter that the British can consequently do what they like.

I have not said anything like that, and it is not my opinion.

_Puma_

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really think you are letting your dislike of FG etc to cloud your opinion.

But all that apart, you seem to be suggesting that Leo and Simon simply need to try harder, be more active.

Can you point out how much time they have spent on this and how much extra you feel they should have spent?

In spite of what you think of my opinion of FG, I have stated already that whoever heads our government needs to be more proactive in upholding the terms of GFA as co-guarantor. It's my opinion that we haven't done enough to protect the GFA and I dont think the Deal, no Deal negotiations happening at the moment between the EU and the UK can achieve anything that will keep both sides happy for the future of NI.

As much as it pains me to say, what Theresa May and to a certain extent Arlene Foster, need now are options. The key to any negotiation is to make the other side think they are winning.

In terms of what I think can be done, the devolved assembly was within touching distance of being restored. I don't think abandoning it now and letting it fall into EU-UK negotiations is the way to achieve anything.

Long term Ireland and the UK will go their separate ways, and be that as it may, we cant allow NI to be pulled along for the ride because it suits Theresa May stay in power a bit longer.

_Puma_

Peregrinus wrote: »

It would not be a good idea for Ireland to open, or take part in, any negotiations about altering the GFA in the light of Brexit.

On this point I accept up to now has been a good policy in strong arming the UK but with recent developments its becoming clear that the British government have no longer any interest in upholding their side of the terms of the GFA if it gets in the way of their Utopia Brexit.

Where do we go from here is now the question that our government needs to be asking themselves.

Econ_

Peregrinus wrote: »

This story has been on the boil for a couple of days now but, actually, it may be boiling a little bit too hard. There may be less in this than meets the eye. As I see it:

1. The UK are, a little too late, appalled at what they signed up to in the Phase 1 Report as regards "full regulatory alignment" in NI if nothing else can be agreed. They are desperate to agree something else.

2. To that end, it's beginning to dawn on them that they really do need to come up with some colourable detail on one or other of their alternative solutions, a really good FTA or magic technology. There is little chance of the EU agreeing to these things if the UK cannot even explain what they are.

3. To this end, they are casting around a bit for ideas - they have none themselves, naturally - and they have fallen with glad cries on this report on technological measures to reduce the impact of borders. It was prepared by a consultant for a committee of the European Parliament. It has been in the public domain for some time.

4. This is the report which May has ordered officials to "consider". Right enough, one of the (many, many) measures discussed in the report is pre-registration for those intending to cross the border, to minimise delay at the actual border.

5. But it's very unlikely that that particular measure is something the UK will spend much time "considering", or that it will have much attraction for them. The Irish border is not a migration border, because of the Common Travel Area which has been in place since 1952. The UK propose to continue the CTA, so they do not intend to erect migration controls on the Irish border. Thus this particular measure is aimed at solving a problem which doesn't arise in the context of the NI border.

6. If Brexit proceeds according to May's red lines, the Irish border will become a customs border (because the UK will be pursuing an independent customs policy) and a regulatory border (because the UK will be pursuing regulatory independence). This means that the UK is not at all concerned about the people who cross the border; it is concerned about the goods which cross the border.

7. They might propose a pre-registration mechanism for consignments of goods. This wouldn't affect travellers at all but it would affect, e.g., the drivers of freight lorries. There are suggestions like having separate traffic lanes for freight and passenger traffic, with barriers on the freight lanes which the driver of a pre-registered consignment can raise with an app on his phone. This won't appeal to Ireland, since it involves border infrastructure and pre-checks, and will still represent a non-tariff barrier to trade, and the EU will be slow to accept it because the alternative which the UK are already comimitted to as a default is "full regulatory alignment", which avoids all this.

8. Thus panic about Irish citizens having to pre-register with the UK government to move around Ireland is misplaced. Nothing like that was ever likely to emerge from May's "consideration" of this report.

The specific report was raised in a select committee meeting with David Davis recently.

The only thing I can remember him saying was that they are aware of it and ‘there are some things we don’t like about it’

He essentially acknowledged that the solution contained within the report are not compatible with what they signed up to in December.


The ‘no physical infrastructure or related checks at the border’ is going to be a piece of detail from the agreement that is going to haunt the UK.

They have three options; renege, agree to border in the Irish Sea or change their position on the Single Market and Customs Union.

blanch152

Peregrinus wrote: »

Imposing a border does not end the GFA.

A lot of people fail to understand this point.

If arrangements can be made for a few small sectors - agricultural goods being one - then a customs border does not breach the GFA, so long as it facilitates the working of an All-Ireland economy.

Angry bird

Skedaddle wrote: »

I have to laugh at the quotes that the US-Canada border is "frictionless".

I drove from Vancouver to Seattle a couple of years ago (before Trump level of paranoia) and there was a long queue on the way into the US and all the usual US rigmarole, including for Canadians.

On the way back out, the Canadians stopped us and wanted to see in the boot of the car. It was nothing to do with illegal immigration, it was to catch Canadians on shopping sprees. There were several other cars stopped being asked to produce receipts for stuff in their suit cases that looked new and unwashed.

They actually didn't seem to be at all bothered about us as we were definitely leaving Canada again in a few days and were unlikely to be smuggling socks and household appliances into Canada.

I also know someone who accidentally wandered across the border while hiking and were arrested for illegally entering the USA and there was a HUGE fuss about it. They were even questioned about being terrorists, despite the fact that they were clearly Canadian hikers.

I've also lived in France and there are plenty of horror stories about Swiss and French customs being absolutely unreasonable over nothing more than your average bag of grocery shopping.

These 'frictionless borders' are only frictionless when they feel like it. There's no guarantees of anything with them. You're usually crossing at the whim of some customs / border official who may or may not feel like going on a power trip that day. It's certainly a far cry from the current normality of the non-existent Northern Ireland border.

Quit wrecking our buzz man. Don't you know facts and logic are fake news...

ancapailldorcha

Angry bird wrote: »

Quit wrecking our buzz man. Don't you know facts and logic are fake news...

Mod: No more one-liners please.

seamus

Lemming wrote: »

Puma, you fail to consider one very important point in the above highlighted comment (bold emphasis mine to draw attention to it); the UK civil servants whom would be doing all the negotiation have been given no direction (regards Brexit) to pursue by their political masters, making discussions defacto irrelevant. Until the UK cabinet know what they want politically, such negotiations are dead in the water.

And let's not forget that when discussions have apparently reached deals, they've been spat back out again when brought to the top level.

So one can't even accuse the civil servants of laziness or a failure to have initiative. They're actively being blocked by their political masters from doing anything.

_Puma_

seamus wrote: »

And let's not forget that when discussions have apparently reached deals, they've been spat back out again when brought to the top level.

So one can't even accuse the civil servants of laziness or a failure to have initiative. They're actively being blocked by their political masters from doing anything.

The UDA are considered the top level now? That in itself reflects the power vacuum that not having an NI executive will lead to in NI. I don't think all the parties involved should be throwing their hands up in the air. It is not an option. If we were redoubling our efforts to restore the NI executive and in effect protecting the GFA you would see this been screamed from the rooftops by our government but we have heard nothing since.

We are sleep walking into very dangerous territory here and unless there is something going on in the the background between our government and the UK outside of the limelight of the Brexit negotiations we are seeing every day, I would start to seriously worry.

Leroy42

I think Seamus was referring to the position that the UK seem to be in at the moment that even when they agree something (like the December agreement) it isn't actually agreed until the whole party has decided on it. So even May is not able to actually sign any deals at the time. Remember, that the understanding was that a deal was already agreed in principle, until the DUP got wind of it and called May to cancel it.

How are the EU, or the Irish for that matter, supposed to negotiate with not only a split party (Tories) but with a second party as well, when none of them have any actual idea how their plans would actually work.

Angry bird

I think that if there is a solution that it will split the Tories and hand Corbyn a great victory. May is between several rocks and hard places and squaring the circle so to speak would have to involve a huge climb down on several red lines. Party interests vs national interest. When there is a victor then real negotiations can begin, not before.

_Puma_

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think Seamus was referring to the position that the UK seem to be in at the moment that even when they agree something (like the December agreement) it isn't actually agreed until the whole party has decided on it. So even May is not able to actually sign any deals at the time. Remember, that the understanding was that a deal was already agreed in principle, until the DUP got wind of it and called May to cancel it.

How are the EU, or the Irish for that matter, supposed to negotiate with not only a split party (Tories) but with a second party as well, when none of them have any actual idea how their plans would actually work.

Take the politics out of it, propose the governments work through our own Anglo-Irish back channels in tandem with the NI Executive to get something worked on to protect the GFA. This grandstanding in the Brexit "negotiations" are getting us nowhere and unless someone blinks first it will be disastrous for NI. Time to think about a contingency plan.

Vronsky

blanch152 wrote: »

A lot of people fail to understand this point.

If arrangements can be made for a few small sectors - agricultural goods being one - then a customs border does not breach the GFA, so long as it facilitates the working of an All-Ireland economy.

The all island economy is a synonym for the economy though, they're is no distinction for sectors.