Brexit discussion thread III

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well why is it reported that they have.

You know when think back Theresa May has caused this mess with the DUP, because it was her who called a snap election when she had a majority of 17. That's probably not the biggest majority ever in the House of Commons but she only had to deal with her own party, not the DUP. No, Theresa May saw the opinion polls saying it was a case of how big a majority she'd get in the next election and she went for it.

Paper does not refuse ink.
Shannon is spinning and the Newsletter is willing to spread it.

MPFGLB

MPFGLB wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

The DUP position makes perfect sense to me.

They want to be part of whatever Union the United Kingdom is in. Whatever deal that is.

They would also like to have no border on the island of Ireland, however that is less important to their primary objective which is remaining within the UK's market. So if push came to shove, they'd sacrifice the island border to remain within the UK's market.

It's a straightforward unionist position.

A soft border does not stop NI being in the UK market...they could have the best of both worlds.

It is not perfect sense as it goes against the GFA and the majority of NI who voted to remain in EU..

In fact it is the antithesis of sense

A time to get a great deal for NI with as I say the best of both in UK market and in Cutoms union, EU market ..Scotland, Wales, London want this ...even bloody Grimbsy

Also the opportunity to avoid a hard border and all the issues that brings

But aligning with UK is their priority? ...so be it but it makes no sense
NI is still ruled from Westminster ...we are talking about trade for heaven sake

The DUP do not align to UK on many political & social issues ..like gay marraige, etc

But this tokenism is perfect sense ? ...it is non sensical

Oh well let NI and DUP go back to the days when it is isolated and ignored by westminster without the open freedom of movement and trade ...or maybe a hard border with the possibility of troubles

Sense ?
Its about as sensible as sticking a fork in you hand before going out to bat

You have utterly misrepresented what I posted.

They want a soft border.

In the circumstance that a hard border must exist between the UK and Ireland, they would rather be on the side of that border aligned with the UK.

Given the depencecy of NI on the UK is larger than the level of interdependency of NI and ROI, there is merit to this position.

Anyone who is shocked that a unionist would rather be part of the UK than Ireland hasn't been paying attention very long. The second order issues are just that, secondary to their primary objective.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP never wanted SF in politics, never wanted the GFA, and never wanted power sharing. The only reason they want to get back to devolved assembly is because they understand that their time in the limelight in Westminster is fleeting.

Make no mistake about it, there are elements within Unionism who would like to see an Israeli style wall built between the northeast and the rest of the country.

When we see Israeli flags flying in unionist areas we should understand that unionism identifies not with Israel, but the Israeli state's treatment of Palestinians and Arabs, they wish that the British would have 'West Banked' Belfast west and 'Gazaed' South Armagh and Bogside of Derry.

For many Unionists the GFA was just another betrayal of their righteousness.

There are two parties playing this well politically so far.

FG and SF.
Both have staked some political capital on this.
But one party will suffer more than the other if it goes pear shaped. FG.

The people of Ireland are plainly paying attention to this, giving the lie to those who claim that they don't care about the north.
SF have taken a back seat on this, preferring to cede the lead to Dublin, because as Matt Carthy said, there is no harm at all if in moderate Unionist circles Dublin is seen to save them from ruin.

If it goes tits up and we get a hard border or if the DUP are seen to win, or FG fold their tent, SF capitalise by saying FG are not able/strong enough for the job of protecting the Irish people.

And IMO they might be right, FG cannot afford to blink here.

Peregrinus

The DUP want an open border with RoI, and no border at all with the UK. They want what they’ve currently got, in other words.

That’s a perfectly reasonable thing to want. The corollary of wanting it, though, is that you have to tailor your Brexit to fit it. That means a Brexit that maintains substantial regulatory alignment across the UK.

So far as I can see, the DUP would be happy with that. It’s the Tory europhobes who would not be.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

The DUP want an open border with RoI, and no border at all with the UK. They want what they’ve currently got, in other words.

That’s a perfectly reasonable thing to want. The corollary of wanting it, though, is that you have to tailor your Brexit to fit it. That means a Brexit that maintains substantial regulatory alignment across the UK.

So far as I can see, the DUP would be happy with that. It’s the Tory europhobes who would not be.

It's a 'mini' United Ireland question for the DUP. The reality is the stupidity of partition is coming into sharp focus.

Infini

FG wont need to fold at all. If it happens that a hard brexit happens it will be firmly nailed to the DUPs ass that THEY are the ones who wanted this and noone (bar the irrelevant TUV) wanted this for obvious reasons.

Opinion polls showing thatt 56% of northies want to remain in the CU after brexit and 48% backing UI in the event of a Hard Brexit. Could see that increasing if things get worse.

flaneur

I actually don’t think either FG or SF will take any flack for this.
If it goes pear shape, it will be because of the Tories and the DUP.

The DUP will blame “Dublin” and the Tories will blame “Brussels”.

It’s highly likely it will go pear shaped as I don’t think the UK political system can deliver this - it’s too dysfunctional.

Sinn Fein can’t change that and Fine Gael can’t either.

To be fair to Varadkar, Coveney and the whole government and actually work that’s being done by a whole range of Irish political parties and Irish diplomacy and non governmental networks, everyone is on the same page of this and we are having significant impact to make it work, against all the odds of British political incompetence and chaos at the moment.

If it collapses, my view of it is that Brexit either won’t happen and it will spin into a British general election, or May will struggle on and produce a situation where the UK just falls out of the EU with disastrous consequences and that’s really entirely down to British politics (including the DUP). It has nothing to do with Ireland or the EU side.

I don’t really see this becoming an Irish political issue and I genuinely think both FG and SF are doing extremely well by holding a very rational, calm and informed line on this and not allowing either party to be sucked into the chaos.

Sinn Fein needs to remain on the moral high ground in NI and so far, that’s exactly where they are.

Likewise, the Irish government (and opposition actually too) is coming across as the calm, informed, rational and sensible actor in this in Europe and beyond.

If the Tories ans DUP wreck everything, they’re the ones who will be carrying the can for this and they’ll have dragged British politics’ international reputation through the mud.

Infini

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's a 'mini' United Ireland question for the DUP. The reality is the stupidity of partition is coming into sharp focus.

Not to mention the hypocracy of the DUP backing a vote thats leading to the undermining of what was a great deal and unionism in general.

flaneur

When you think about the last few years in British politics though it really is unprecedented and utterly chaotic.

You’ve had a rise of a toxic debate that’s fed into everything from Brexit to the killing of an MP, Jo Cox. I’m actually a bit flabbergasted with how quickly they just stopped analyzing what happened to create that level of extreme, and just moved on as if very little has happened after a few days of hand wringing.

They need to get away from this mess and it’s being fed by endless jingoism and just horribly toxic politics and bile coming from Westminster, the media and online. Until they get back to sane politics, I don’t really think there’s going to be any sensible solutions coming from London.

Bar_Prop

Infini wrote: »

Not to mention the hypocracy of the DUP backing a vote thats leading to the undermining of what was a great deal and unionism in general.

Only in a practical sense.
Which is some way down the list of priorities for NI Unionist parties.

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

You have utterly misrepresented what I posted.

They want a soft border.

In the circumstance that a hard border must exist between the UK and Ireland, they would rather be on the side of that border aligned with the UK.

Given the depencecy of NI on the UK is larger than the level of interdependency of NI and ROI, there is merit to this position.

Anyone who is shocked that a unionist would rather be part of the UK than Ireland hasn't been paying attention very long. The second order issues are just that, secondary to their primary objective.

I agree with you. Amid all the vitriol being thrown at the DUP (and quite a lot of it is deserved) people are losing sight of the fact that what they are seeking is perfectly rational and in line with their mandate and may well be the least worst available option for Northern Ireland (though it isn't good for the South).

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are two parties playing this well politically so far.

FG and SF.
Both have staked some political capital on this.
But one party will suffer more than the other if it goes pear shaped. FG.

The people of Ireland are plainly paying attention to this, giving the lie to those who claim that they don't care about the north.
SF have taken a back seat on this, preferring to cede the lead to Dublin, because as Matt Carthy said, there is no harm at all if in moderate Unionist circles Dublin is seen to save them from ruin.

If it goes tits up and we get a hard border or if the DUP are seen to win, or FG fold their tent, SF capitalise by saying FG are not able/strong enough for the job of protecting the Irish people.

And IMO they might be right, FG cannot afford to blink here.

If you think that sitting on the sidelines on your hands contributing nothing constructive to the debate, waiting for someone else to succeed or fail and failing to be part of the solution is playing this well politically, then SF have done well.

To me, this crisis has once again shown the complete futility of voting for Sinn Fein north or south. They have had zero influence on events in either jurisdiction.

Bar_Prop

blanch152 wrote: »

They have had zero influence on events in either jurisdiction.

I'm not sure that's entirely true, North of the border anyway.

solodeogloria

Infini wrote: »

FG wont need to fold at all. If it happens that a hard brexit happens it will be firmly nailed to the DUPs ass that THEY are the ones who wanted this and noone (bar the irrelevant TUV) wanted this for obvious reasons.

Opinion polls showing thatt 56% of northies want to remain in the CU after brexit and 48% backing UI in the event of a Hard Brexit. Could see that increasing if things get worse.

Good morning!

Like some other posters I'm not convinced that the DUP deserve blame for a cockup in Westminster. I don't think the DUP deserve blame for representing their voters and their genuine concerns about Northern Ireland's role in the United Kingdom.

My bets are as follows:

Theresa May will insert wording in to the effect of protecting the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom into the paragraph and the DUP will sign off.

Tomorrow we will have the usual round of speculation will she won't she but invariably the outcome will be that the document will be signed.

This could be misplaced confidence, but that remains to be seen.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur

I think the Tories are entirely to blame for this. The DUP simply shouldn’t have been brought into the mix at all. They’re a known factor with extreme political views and what they’re doing is exactly what anyone who knows anything about the DUP would fully expect them to do.

That doesn’t mean that I absolve them from responsibly from what’s going on in Westminster. If they wanted to, they could play a far more constructive role in achieving a settlement on this, but they won’t and that’s not at all surprising and shouldn’t have been a shock to the Tories and May who were told that bringing one side of the Ni conflict into a UK power brokering position was an utterly stupid move.

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Like some other posters I'm not convinced that the DUP deserve blame for a cockup in Westminster. I don't think the DUP deserve blame for representing their voters and their genuine concerns about Northern Ireland's role in the United Kingdom.

My bets are as follows:

Theresa May will insert wording in to the effect of protecting the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom into the paragraph and the DUP will sign off.

Tomorrow we will have the usual round of speculation will she won't she but invariably the outcome will be that the document will be signed.

This could be misplaced confidence, but that remains to be seen.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

And what of the envevable Tory Party explosion?
Unlike May many backbenchers seem committed to their Red Lines.

LeinsterDub

LeinsterDub wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Like some other posters I'm not convinced that the DUP deserve blame for a cockup in Westminster. I don't think the DUP deserve blame for representing their voters and their genuine concerns about Northern Ireland's role in the United Kingdom.

My bets are as follows:

Theresa May will insert wording in to the effect of protecting the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom into the paragraph and the DUP will sign off.

Tomorrow we will have the usual round of speculation will she won't she but invariably the outcome will be that the document will be signed.

This could be misplaced confidence, but that remains to be seen.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

And what of the envevable Tory Party explosion?
Unlike May many backbenchers seem committed to their Red Lines.

Even actively looking to add more red lines to be committed to!

Vronsky

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Like some other posters I'm not convinced that the DUP deserve blame for a cockup in Westminster. I don't think the DUP deserve blame for representing their voters and their genuine concerns about Northern Ireland's role in the United Kingdom.

My bets are as follows:

Theresa May will insert wording in to the effect of protecting the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom into the paragraph and the DUP will sign off.

Tomorrow we will have the usual round of speculation will she won't she but invariably the outcome will be that the document will be signed.

This could be misplaced confidence, but that remains to be seen.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

If she puts something like "with due regard for the constitutional integrity of the UK" it makes the commitment on the border meaningless.

A form of words is not enough to solve this issue - this is the hard reality of Brexit is that it involves difficult choices and it cannot be all things to all people. She has to sell out the DUP, her eurosceptic mps or put customs posts on the border.

Even if she gets a form of acceptable words, that is only a delaying tactic. The truth is she has to tell her DUP partners or her MPs to put up and shut up or call an election.

rock22

It looks like the Taoiseach is blinking first according to news this morning.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1207/925584-taoiseach-willing-to-consider-changes-to-text/

it is extremely naïve of him to go public on all these negotiation steps. Instead he should leave it to Barnier/Junker and May.

I assume that the text May presents will be the DUP position. When Varadkar rejects it , the process will take the focus off UK and will be presented as a problem with the Irish Government.

(As an aside, it would also appear that what helped to scuppered the deal on Monday was, at least partly, the excitement and fanfare in Dublin, and on RTE, fuelled by Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney. It wasun necessarily triumphant )

If a deal is to be done and the interests of Ireland secured then the Government would do well to leave the stage to May, Junker and Barnier.

LeinsterDub

rock22 wrote: »

It looks like the Taoiseach is blinking first according to news this morning.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1207/925584-taoiseach-willing-to-consider-changes-to-text/

it is extremely naïve of him to go public on all these negotiation steps. Instead he should leave it to Barnier/Junker and May.

I don't know what reading of the article gives you the impression Leo has blinked. To summarise it "I'll consider any text the UK send" . That's an entirely reasonable position. Now it's could be a 2 second consideration and saying that text is completely out of order or it actually be some text that solves this issue satisfactorily for all.

Bar_Prop

rock22 wrote: »

(As an aside, it would also appear that what helped to scuppered the deal on Monday was, at least partly, the excitement and fanfare in Dublin, and on RTE, fuelled by Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney. It wasun necessarily triumphant )

I think this actually understates the case a bit, if there had been no press release from Dublin I believe the deal would have been done. It was the likes of Jamie Bryson all but calling to people to the barricades from Twitter that forced the DUP to act.

mickoneill31

rock22 wrote: »

It looks like the Taoiseach is blinking first according to news this morning.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1207/925584-taoiseach-willing-to-consider-changes-to-text/

The article says that he's willing to consider changes to the text. Of course he is. That's hardly tantamount to blinking first.
The alternative is that he says he's unwilling to consider changes. Thatd be far worse.

Considering new text <> Accepting new text.

The Tories will put something in to keep the DUP happy. Hopefully this time they show it to the DUP.
Then the Irish government has to consider. Pretty obvious.

Beechwoodspark

flaneur wrote: »

"poor" Theresa was quite happy to sell out and go into a confidence and supply deal with a party known to have extreme and divisive views, to have not supported the GFA, to defend all sorts of indefensible stuff in Northern Ireland, to be anti LGBT rights and all sorts of other things.

Theresa wanted to be in the PM’s office and to ensure the Tories were in power come hell or high water.

She’s no stateswoman, nor is she poor.

What’s happening in the UK at the moment is an utterly disgraceful lack of any kind of real leadership. They’re allowing the British economy and the stability of the very fabric of the country to be put in jeopardy all to appease a bunch of extremists in and outside of their own party.

It’s a level of self serving muppetry that I have never seen before.

I’m not British but I have lived in England and this is *not* the England I experienced. It’s a twisted, distorted, nasty mess and it’s destroying what was a pretty nice country to live in only a few years ago.

I was being sarcastic when I wrote "poor Teresa". I've no sympathy for her or her shambles of a ruling party.

Leroy42

Peregrinus said it best earlier on.

What this episode has shown is that at some point the UK will have to deal with the inherent contradiction in their position and they are starting now to face the realities of the situation.

And it appears that they haven't even started to process. According to Davies and Hammond yesterday, the cabinet hasn't even discussed what they hope to achieve. No review of the impact has been done and therefore one must wonder if they are even aware of the amount of things (like replacing regulations) that need to be done.

It started to become apparent when May said they wanted a transition period, which to me showed that they weren't ready and wanted the EU to hold their hand. The doors were finally blown off yesterday and the chaos was laid bare. And this is all on May. The DUP are being used as a scapegoat but it is clear that, like everything else in this process, they and their viewpoint has not been taken into account. I totally believe that they didn't receive any notification of the potential deal, but it had nothing to do with Leo.

How can the PM be so utterly reckless? Why did she trigger Art 50, and then call an election? Why did she draw a red line across SM and CU membership without knowing the impact of that position. Has she any plan at all? They keep talking about moving to Phase 2 and trade talks but they have no idea what they can or cannot agree to. What impact will having different regulations have? What impact will having tariffs have? What will be the initial impact of a no deal?

They have none of these questions, never mind the answers.

Infini

Sounds nothing like blinking just a way of keeping the door open to any ideas. He hasnt compromised on his position but just made it clear hes being reasonable and willing to listen. Its the high road path. If things go downhill he comes off as the one who was willing be reasonable and to consider any workable idea but the Brits couldnt come up with anything.

LeinsterDub

Bar_Prop wrote: »

I think this actually understates the case a bit, if there had been no press release from Dublin I believe the deal would have been done. It was the likes of Jamie Bryson all but calling to people to the barricades from Twitter that forced the DUP to act.

They would of been calling for it regardless of the timing of the text coming out.

Bar_Prop

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They would of been calling for it regardless of the timing of the text coming out.

Indeed. and it might even have happened. But after the event.

LeinsterDub

Bar_Prop wrote: »

Indeed. and it might even have happened. But after the event.

If TM agreed a deal with the EU. The DUP would have thrown their toy's out of the pram and the TM is left with no option but to pull the plug, and election would have to be called. At least with this series of events we don't lose 2-3 months for an election campaign.

solodeogloria

Vronsky wrote: »

If she puts something like "with due regard for the constitutional integrity of the UK" it makes the commitment on the border meaningless.

A form of words is not enough to solve this issue - this is the hard reality of Brexit is that it involves difficult choices and it cannot be all things to all people. She has to sell out the DUP, her eurosceptic mps or put customs posts on the border.

Even if she gets a form of acceptable words, that is only a delaying tactic. The truth is she has to tell her DUP partners or her MPs to put up and shut up or call an election.

Good morning!

Why is it "meaningless"? Such wording would provide a commitment to Dublin that the border will remain open, and to Belfast that there won't be additional friction to Britain. It would mean effectively that any arrangement that deals with Northern Ireland must also deal with the whole of the UK.

This assumption will then shape what can be agreed phase 2.

I'm not fully convinced that this wording requires formal single market and customs union membership.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I was being sarcastic when I wrote "poor Teresa". I've no sympathy for her or her shambles of a ruling party.

Don’t worry, I didn’t think you were! I was just using it as a jumping off point

Bar_Prop

LeinsterDub wrote: »

If TM agreed a deal with the EU. The DUP would have thrown their toy's out of the pram and the TM is left with no option but to pull the plug, and election would have to be called. At least with this series of events we don't lose 2-3 months for an election campaign.

I honestly don't believe that to be the case. At least in so far as it would force TM to back down.

I would not be hard to convince that all parties had prior knowledge of the contents of the proposed "deal" and it was only the press crowing about "capitulation" before there was ink on paper that blew it out of thee water.

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm not fully convinced that this wording requires formal single market and customs union membership.

Nope just following all the SM and CU rules and regulations. What a wonderful deal for the UK. Life in the CU granny flat. I'm sure it will be great. Sure you've got your own front door you can let in who ever you want once it follows our rules and we've also a side door so we can check up on you and come and go as we please. But otherwise completely independent living.

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

Why is it "meaningless"? Such wording would provide a commitment to Dublin that the border will remain open, and to Belfast that there won't be additional friction to Britain. It would mean effectively that any arrangement that deals with Northern Ireland must also deal with the whole of the UK.

This assumption will then shape what can be agreed phase 2.

I'm not fully convinced that this wording requires formal single market and customs union membership.

If NI has to have regulatory equivalence, or alignment if that's your buzzword, with Ireland and the EU and the UK has to follow then it mean that the UK has to align their own rules and regulations with the EU.

That means when Liam Fox goes to the USA and asks for a trade deal and the US wants the UK to allow chlorinated chicken to be imported he has to say no. He will not be able to get a trade deal because of EU rules, how can that be fine for you, regulatory alignment, and not single market membership? It comes down to the same thing, the UK will follow rules from the EU and will make their own rules to reflect this. Its a shambles, on the scale of not having impact assessments.

On the border and the DUP. They cannot have an open border and leave the EU. This is ridiculous and trying to spin their position as somehow admirable because they are sticking to their ideology just confirms their ideology is stupid.

flaneur

mickoneill31 wrote: »

The article says that he's willing to consider changes to the text. Of course he is. That's hardly tantamount to blinking first.
The alternative is that he says he's unwilling to consider changes. Thatd be far worse.

Considering new text <> Accepting new text.

The Tories will put something in to keep the DUP happy. Hopefully this time they show it to the DUP.
Then the Irish government has to consider. Pretty obvious.

To me that reads :

“Thank you for your email. We will consider its contents and get back to you in due course”.

Many of us have had one of those. They’re often known as a polite PFO.

I think the main thing here is the Irish government doesn’t need to debase itself by getting sucked into the mud slinging in the UK.

It’s completely reasonable to consider all communications, whether you then act on them is another thing entirely.

Bar_Prop

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nope just following all the SM and CU rules and regulations.

Can't see even that passing UK wide with the current setup.

TM needs both the eurosceptic wing of her party and the DUP in order to maintain a majority in the house and a decision on the Irish border to progress to pahse two talks. It's very difficult to see how she can have more than two from the three.

Leroy42

solodeogloria wrote: »

Why is it "meaningless"?

It meaningless for a number of reasons.

1st off, May said only yesterday that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. SO whatever she says now is, by her own admission, meaningless as she doesn't actually agree to it.

2nd, there cannot be an open border without regulations, and the DUP have stated they won't accept regulations with the EU unless it is UK wide (the Scots agree) so May would have to agree to one of the other. Her words means she wants both.

3rd, it meaningless because Davies has admitted that they haven't actually discussed any of this and they haven't done any preparatory work to understand the implications.

Bar_Prop

Enzokk wrote: »

, how can that be fine for you, regulatory alignment, and not single market membership?

Single market membership means freedom of movement, regulatory alignment does not.

This will appease many leavers.

blanch152

Bar_Prop wrote: »

I'm not sure that's entirely true, North of the border anyway.

Nothing is entirely true in politics, yet I struggle to see any sign of any influence that Sinn Fein have had on the negotiations or even the debate about the negotiations either North or South.

Keeping quiet is a clever glic operation in the mode of FF in days gone past.

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Like some other posters I'm not convinced that the DUP deserve blame for a cockup in Westminster. I don't think the DUP deserve blame for representing their voters and their genuine concerns about Northern Ireland's role in the United Kingdom.

My bets are as follows:

Theresa May will insert wording in to the effect of protecting the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom into the paragraph and the DUP will sign off.

Tomorrow we will have the usual round of speculation will she won't she but invariably the outcome will be that the document will be signed.

This could be misplaced confidence, but that remains to be seen.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The DUP campaigned for Brexit in the first place, going against the will of the majority in Northern Ireland.

They are guilty in this shambles as well.

In fact they are particularly guilty as the know the particular problem Brexit causes the border.

Bar_Prop

blanch152 wrote: »

Nothing is entirely true in politics, yet I struggle to see any sign of any influence that Sinn Fein have had on the negotiations or even the debate about the negotiations either North or South.

Keeping quiet is a clever glic operation in the mode of FF in days gone past.

Oh purely on the Brexit issue you mean?

Agreed then.

solodeogloria

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nope just following all the SM and CU rules and regulations. What a wonderful deal for the UK. Life in the CU granny flat. I'm sure it will be great. Sure you've got your own front door you can let in who ever you want once it follows our rules and we've also a side door so we can check up on you and come and go as we please. But otherwise completely independent living.

Good morning!

It still remains to be seen what "regulatory alignment" means. Does it mean similar or exactly the same? The thinking in the Government seems to suggest that it means legislation with a similar outcome in certain areas. Chris Grayling is stating such on BBC Radio 4 this morning.

I think the compromises in the last week will have the following impact:

In certain sectors regulations will need to be broadly similar in order for the border to remain open. If this applies to the whole of Britain this doesn't just affect the Irish border but the sea frontier with mainland Europe.

The scope for free trade agreements are reduced but not nullified. It simply means that trade needs to happen within the agreed regulations.

If the UK can do this without formal membership of the customs union and single market then it still allows for more freedom than the status quo. Admittedly not as much as I and some others would have liked but control of borders are regained and there is increased scope for free trade agreements.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

blanch152

Enzokk wrote: »

If NI has to have regulatory equivalence, or alignment if that's your buzzword, with Ireland and the EU and the UK has to follow then it mean that the UK has to align their own rules and regulations with the EU.

That means when Liam Fox goes to the USA and asks for a trade deal and the US wants the UK to allow chlorinated chicken to be imported he has to say no. He will not be able to get a trade deal because of EU rules, how can that be fine for you, regulatory alignment, and not single market membership? It comes down to the same thing, the UK will follow rules from the EU and will make their own rules to reflect this. Its a shambles, on the scale of not having impact assessments.

On the border and the DUP. They cannot have an open border and leave the EU. This is ridiculous and trying to spin their position as somehow admirable because they are sticking to their ideology just confirms their ideology is stupid.

The one chicken that could still come home to roost on that one is the Good Friday Agreement. Regulatory equivalence on issues covered by the GFA may only mean a small amount and may not result in membership of the SM and CU nor in a completely open border.

Leroy42

solodeogloria wrote: »

If the UK can do this without formal membership of the customs union and single market then it still allows for more freedom than the status quo. Admittedly not as much as I and some others would have liked but control of borders are regained and there is increased scope for free trade agreements.

So another plank of Brexit will be discarded. The good ship Brexit is little more than a raft at this stage.

solodeogloria

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

It still remains to be seen what "regulatory alignment" means. Does it mean similar or exactly the same? The thinking in the Government seems to suggest that it means legislation with a similar outcome in certain areas. Chris Grayling is stating such on BBC Radio 4 this morning.

I think the compromises in the last week will have the following impact:

In certain sectors regulations will need to be broadly similar in order for the border to remain open. If this applies to the whole of Britain this doesn't just affect the Irish border but the sea frontier with mainland Europe.

The scope for free trade agreements are reduced but not nullified. It simply means that trade needs to happen within the agreed regulations.

If the UK can do this without formal membership of the customs union and single market then it still allows for more freedom than the status quo. Admittedly not as much as I and some others would have liked but control of borders are regained and there is increased scope for free trade agreements.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

What would you like?

rock22

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't know what reading of the article gives you the impression Leo has blinked. To summarise it "I'll consider any text the UK send" . That's an entirely reasonable position. Now it's could be a 2 second consideration and saying that text is completely out of order or it actually be some text that solves this issue satisfactorily for all.

Because it is reasonable to assume that the text on Monday was as far as EU ( with Ireland) and UK could reach out to each other.
The new text has to be essentially the DUP text, otherwise there is no sense in doing a new text. And it is hard, maybe impossible, to see any such DUP text being acceptable to EU and Ireland.
However we will then be in a position for UK to say the problem is Ireland's not accepting a text which probably the rest of EU will have no problem with. And UK will , again , have managed to separate the Irish and EU positions. Whatever way it wil be spun from London, it will no longer be a UK problem but rather the Irish government being inflexible. I would be surprise if the pressure does not come on Ireland to change it's position in those circumstances while at the moment Ireland can simply stay quite and let EU /UK talks continue.

I fully agree with e governments position by the way, just feel that this need which Leo and Simon seem to have to play everything for the media is making agreement hard to reach. I am convinced that we would have had agreement on Monday had they kept off the radio etc.

LuckyLloyd

Schorpio wrote: »

The DUP have frankly acted disgracefully over the past few days, in my opinion.

The sheer gall of them to promote a theory that it was the Irish Government who prevented them from seeing the agreement. It was not the responsibility of the Irish Government to show them the text, nor was it their place. The DUP was well aware of this, but they can't blame the government that they are supposed to be so friendly to - a government they want to remain as close to as possible. So, they peddle a story that it's the pesky Irish Government instead.

And to suggest that the Irish are playing a 'dangerous game' at the mere mention in the Dail that the agreement may not be reached this week! After the shambles that was Davis' statement today! It really does beggar belief.

They are pushing these ridiculous lines out there for the Dail Mail and other sensationalist, Leave-biased tabloids. They are feeding the cycle of distraction and misinformation, and they should hang their heads in shame.

While I agree with this, it's completely naive to think the DUP are capable of shame. To anyone paying attention to politics in Northern Ireland over the past twenty years they are the most regressive, divisive and small minded political party across the entirety of Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland. They are out on their own representing a base that is against progress or change in all its political variants. Northern Unionism increasingly represents a less wealthy and less educated demographic that feels its influence gradually eroding. This mixes quite badly with an ingrained sense of entitlement to produce torrents of bitter anger.

Of course, to give that type of regressive bitterness a direct influence on something as momentous, complicated and nuanced as Brexit is a tremendous political failure. Theresa May and her party can be thanked for that. But ultimately, all of the adjectives and insightful observations fail to deflect the reality of the situation: until another General Election is called in the UK the DUP will sit there and push recklessly for a hard border and failure to achieve a compromise the Irish Government are satisfied with.

And they will be boastfully proud of that.

Enzokk

Bar_Prop wrote: »

Single market membership means freedom of movement, regulatory alignment does not.

This will appease many leavers.

So when posters say Brexit was a racist vote then it is true. As long as I don't have to have that "other" person living next to me.

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

It still remains to be seen what "regulatory alignment" means. Does it mean similar or exactly the same? The thinking in the Government seems to suggest that it means legislation with a similar outcome in certain areas. Chris Grayling is stating such on BBC Radio 4 this morning.

I think the compromises in the last week will have the following impact:

In certain sectors regulations will need to be broadly similar in order for the border to remain open. If this applies to the whole of Britain this doesn't just affect the Irish border but the sea frontier with mainland Europe.

The scope for free trade agreements are reduced but not nullified. It simply means that trade needs to happen within the agreed regulations.

If the UK can do this without formal membership of the customs union and single market then it still allows for more freedom than the status quo. Admittedly not as much as I and some others would have liked but control of borders are regained and there is increased scope for free trade agreements.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

You must be asking yourself what the point of Brexit is at this stage?

Leroy42

rock22 wrote: »

Because it is reasonable to assume that the text on Monday was as far as EU ( with Ireland) and UK could reach out to each other.
The new text has to be essentially the DUP text, otherwise there is no sense in doing a new text. And it is hard, maybe impossible, to see any such DUP text being acceptable to EU and Ireland.
However we will then be in a position for UK to say the problem is Ireland's not accepting a text which probably the rest of EU will have no problem with. And UK will , again , have managed to separate the Irish and EU positions. Whatever way it wil be spun from London, it will no longer be a UK problem but rather the Irish government being inflexible. I would be surprise if the pressure does not come on Ireland to change it's position in those circumstances while at the moment Ireland can simply stay quite and let EU /UK talks continue.

I fully agree with e governments position by the way, just feel that this need which Leo and Simon seem to have to play everything for the media is making agreement hard to reach. I am convinced that we would have had agreement on Monday had they kept off the radio etc.

This is exactly why the Irish should just veto it all now. It is pointless to continue this farce. It is clear that many in the UK want a hard brexit, and the red lines that May has stated almost guarantee that.

This latest episode, coupled with the statements by Davies, May and Hammond yesterday, show that the UK have no idea what they want, how to get it or even why.

So whatever conciliatory moves that Ire/EU make will not be enough. Maybe it will move the talks along but to what end? Time to face reality. The UK are leaving, they are leaving no matter what and the longer we waste trying to placate them the less time we spend on protecting ourselves.

UK has lost its ability to deal in facts and as such how can anybody negotiate with them?

steddyeddy

blanch152 wrote: »

The one chicken that could still come home to roost on that one is the Good Friday Agreement. Regulatory equivalence on issues covered by the GFA may only mean a small amount and may not result in membership of the SM and CU nor in a completely open border.

Again you completely missunderstand the GFA. One of the tenants enshrined in the GFA is cross border co-operation. I've asked you thee times no and you've dodged the lot. Does a closed border have any negative impact on crossed border co-operation.

Secondly was the GFA written with EU cross border regulation in mind?

kowtow

Bar_Prop wrote:

I would not be hard to convince that all parties had prior knowledge of the contents of the proposed "deal" and it was only the press crowing about "capitulation" before there was ink on paper that blew it out of thee water.

I haven't read anything which convinces me otherwise.

We didn't ever see the entire text on Monday, but I wouldn't be surprised if very little changes.

Leo put it well on Monday when he said "this isn't how it was all choreographed and planned"