Brexit discussion thread III

Econ_

Sam Russell wrote: »

The figures for NI trade both with GB and Ireland are not easy to determine as they are not reported in a way that is transparent. However, it is apparent that there is less trade S-N that the N-S trade. Why this is is difficult to determine, but it appears to be the case.

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

Given that 44% of NI actually voted for Brexit, it's not hard to conceive that a lot of sub-optimal trade takes place on zealot-like ideological grounds.

Leroy42

EdgeCase wrote: »

I've had these discussions. They won't continue with all island distribution - they'll integrate the NI market with Scotland.

Some stores may also just shutter their operations in NI if the market is too small to service that way. It depends on how the costs work out.

It's a tiny market and these are going to be business, not political decision.

This changes a lot of economies of scale for some businesses.

Donegal is also at risk of issues in that regard as it potentially becomes much more isolated

Wouldn't that put Ireland at risk as well? Without the additional 1.5 million in NI, the economics of dealing in Ireland become less favourable and might that not lead to increased prices for us as well?

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wouldn't that put Ireland at risk as well? Without the additional 1.5 million in NI, the economics of dealing in Ireland become less favourable and might that not lead to increased prices for us as well?

Possibly, but it's still 4.7 million and integrated into Eurozone systems. Economies of scale are always useful.

Effectively, NI will mostly end up being seen as part of the furherst flung areas of Scotland. It definitely drives business costs up.

There's still very little known about what the final picture will look like as the UK isn't being clear about what's happening.

The biggest risk in both jurisdictions is a shock type situation where everything has to change very rapidly. That would finish off a lot of businesses by giving them no opportunity to plan.

blanch152

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

Given that 44% of NI actually voted for Brexit, it's not hard to conceive that a lot of sub-optimal trade takes place on zealot-like ideological grounds.

I think that is wishful thinking to be honest. People rarely put ideology before profit.

If it was the case, a neighbouring Catholic business which traded with both the UK and the South would quickly out-perform the Protestant business trading "on zealot-like ideological grounds".

FrancieBrady

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

Given that 44% of NI actually voted for Brexit, it's not hard to conceive that a lot of sub-optimal trade takes place on zealot-like ideological grounds.

Look at the debacle when someone wanted a simple cake made. Make no bones about it zealotry will be a factor here.
Might be a wee bit softer 10 years down the road though.

catrionanic

blanch152 wrote: »

I think that is wishful thinking to be honest. People rarely put ideology before profit

The majority of people putting ideology before profit is exactly why we are in this Brexit mess in the first place!

Christy42

blanch152 wrote: »

I think that is wishful thinking to be honest. People rarely put ideology before profit.

If it was the case, a neighbouring Catholic business which traded with both the UK and the South would quickly out-perform the Protestant business trading "on zealot-like ideological grounds".

Economics rarely work so simply. Many companies are run suboptimally and yet manage to remain in business. Having said this I don't know of any businesses that refuse to trade with ROI on ideological grounds.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious discussion only please. Posts deleted.

Capt'n Midnight

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

“Our people may be British, but our cows are Irish…”
- Ian Paisley.

Capt'n Midnight

Why does home insurance always get more expensive?
It's a question that affects every home owner.

But you'll have to longer wait for an answer, and action on it because Brexit is taking £30m funds from the City regulator.

The City regulator has said it is facing a £30m Brexit bill in the year running up to the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

The Financial Conduct Authority will ditch "non-critical" work to find £14m, while the rest will come from reserves and fees from the financial industry.

Brexit has knock on effects.



also
Rise in numbers of Britons becoming EU citizens in 201

Econ_

Labour frontbencher Barry Gardiner shows Kate Hoey and Daniel Hannan how to really bash the GFA;


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43706473?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews


Surely there'll be huge pressure on Corbyn to sack him from the shadow cabinet after his swift dismissal of Owen Smith for a far lesser offence.

Peregrinus

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

Given that 44% of NI actually voted for Brexit, it's not hard to conceive that a lot of sub-optimal trade takes place on zealot-like ideological grounds.

Couple of thoughts:

1. There's no reason to think that this happens on any material scale.

2. To the extent that it does happen, there's no reason to think that it's only committed Unionists who make commercial decisions on this basis. There could equally be Nationalists who have an ideological preference for trading with the Republic.

3. So, one way or another, this is probably a wash, or close to it.

Hurrache

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

The Irish government was accused by David Davis of bowing to political pressure from Sinn Fein yesterday and allowing the party to encourage its hardline stance on Brexit.

The Brexit secretary said that Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, had allowed republican sentiment to play “a strong political role” in Brexit that had made it harder to resolve the impasse over the Northern Irish border. His claims were rejected by Dublin.

The row threatens to heighten tensions between the two governments amid talks aimed at resolving the border issue.

Five former Northern Ireland secretaries have written to The Times today to warn that a hard border “could threaten the very existence of the Good Friday agreement”.

Speaking at a conference in London, Mr Davis said…

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/983591658355818497

https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/983592690188242944

sink

Hurrache wrote: »

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

It's very Trumpian. Despite the warnings from all sides and the decades of protracted and failed negotiation Trump claim healthcare in the US would be a breeze to solve. As soon as the folio gets put in front of him and he actually has to solve it, he asks 'who knew healthcare was so complicated' and blames everyone else under the sun for not delivering his promises. It's ridiculous Davis is an absolute clown.

FrancieBrady

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British.

I don't think he has the guile to even think of that angle, never mind try to go down it.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

If that is what he is trying to do, he is indeed very stupid. Nobody who knows anything about this imagines for an instant that IrlGov's stance on the border is motivated, in even the smallest degree, by anti-British sentiment. It is entirely driven by sober consideration of Ireland's best interests.

You can't appeal to someone's sense of shame about something unless they know or think they have some reason to be ashamed of that thing. Nobody in FG knows or thinks that they have any reason to be ashamed of prioritising an open border in Ireland, and if Davis imagines that they do he is simply delusional.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

If that is what he is trying to do, he is indeed very stupid. Nobody who knows anything about this imagines for an instant that IrlGov's stance on the border is motivated, in even the smallest degree, by anti-British sentiment. It is entirely driven by sober consideration of Ireland's best interests.

You can't appeal to someone's sense of shame about something unless they know or think they have some reason to be ashamed of that thing. Nobody in FG knows or thinks that they have any reason to be ashamed of prioritising an open border in Ireland, and if Davis imagines that they do he is simply delusional.

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

Is it though? SF have been almost silent on the issue, so to anyone in Ireland this will not make sense. I'm sure there is a cohort that will always want to be seen to be the opposite, but as mentioned it really isn't a tough decision.

Go all out to retain the current situation (no border, UK member of CU etc) or allow UK to get preferential treatment which could potentially destablise both the island itself and the EU as a whole upon which we have built our recent prosperity.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

I disagree. It's not smart diplomacy because the line he is taking is not likely to make IrlGov change its position, which is the outcome he wants. IrlGov is unbothered that the more dim-witted Brexiters think it is being anti-British; there is no advantage to them in currying favour with dim-witted Brexiters. Davis either shares the dim-witted Brexiter view here, in which case he is stupid, or he has failed to spot that the dim-witted Brexiter view has no traction with any constituency that can deliver anything that IrlGov wants, in which case he is, well, stupid.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it though? SF have been almost silent on the issue, so to anyone in Ireland this will not make sense. I'm sure there is a cohort that will always want to be seen to be the opposite, but as mentioned it really isn't a tough decision.

Go all out to retain the current situation (no border, UK member of CU etc) or allow UK to get preferential treatment which could potentially destablise both the island itself and the EU as a whole upon which we have built our recent prosperity.

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

But it's a stupid ploy. Deploying a stupid ploy masterfully is still stupid.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

But it's a stupid ploy. Deploying a stupid ploy masterfully is still stupid.

Not if they fall for it.

Trimble is at a version of the same thing at the minute on Sean O'Rourke.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

But there is nothing to apologise for.

Davies - Why are you doing this, just following SF?
FG - Well no, Brexit has the real possibility of wrecking both the NI and Ireland economies as well as putting the peace in danger. What else do you think we should do?

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

The political class in the UK really is the low of the low at the moment. We have a foreign secretary who, I mean Boris Johnson. He tried to claim that cutting the number of firefighters and engines actually will not reduce safety as stopping fires will negate that.

Then you have the current PM who was in charge when the government started cuts to police and would you believe it, they are having a crime problem and the home office has said the cuts most likely played a role. Add in the current Home Secretary who touts the same line as Boris Johnson, cuts has had no role in increasing crime numbers. This after a report she commissioned directly contradicts her position and she hasn't read the report. This despite it being out for more than a month.

So we have politicians, like David Davis, Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson, who are either lying on purpose (no shock David Davis he has been found out many times before) or they are incompetent. The really worrying thing for me is that they are lying and they are incompetent.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

No, he is stupid. There is no indication that SF has anywhere near the influence or support to be pulling the strings like he suggests. They are at around 16% in opinion polls, half of FG and about 8% behind FF.

Fianna Fail takes five point plunge in latest opinion poll

Hurrache

Trimble on Sean O'Rourke just said he thinks there was a change in the attitude of the government since Kenny left and he said yes, and not for the better, and that he's already said enough on that.

Leroy42

But I do agree that this is the approach that is being followed. from the constant questioning of the need for the GFA, to now questioning the reasons behind the Irish governments stance.

I mean, seriously, the UK government is actually propped up by unionists and Davies has the gall to claim that a non government party in Ireland is in control?

They have tried to divide the EU itself, and as that hasn't paid off have moved on to try to take on the smaller nation. Lucky for Ireland (as I would be wary of our politicians ability to take the right approach) the GFA is an internationally registered agreement and as such places the onus on the UK to find a resolution to a problem they created.

Ireland's no1 option is for everything to stay the same.

mickoneill31

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not if they fall for it.

Trimble is at a version of the same thing at the minute on Sean O'Rourke.

But who do you think would fall for it? The Irish government has being doing great in regards to Brexit. And I don't think they'd ever be accused (over here) of bowing to Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein are silent as they agree with the government and by staying silent they're getting what they want while the British government just dig a deeper and deeper hole for themselves.

FrancieBrady

mickoneill31 wrote: »

But who do you think would fall for it? The Irish government has being doing great in regards to Brexit. And I don't think they'd ever be accused (over here) of bowing to Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein are silent as they agree with the government and by staying silent they're getting what they want while the British government just dig a deeper and deeper hole for themselves.

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

oscarBravo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Ah, now I see. I couldn't understand why you alone thought there was anything other than stupidity in Davis's approach, but now it makes sense: you're operating off the Republican caricature of Fine Gael as the Irish wing of the Tories.

I guess if there's anything that can make a stupid strategy seem smart, it's a stupid perspective on it.

EdgeCase

What he'll do is cause issues with the EPP. This is being seen as utterly deluded commentary on the continent.

GalwayMark

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

Bruton is more enthusiastic about Europe these days and has been very critical of the brexiteers so no it won’t have the effect the British gov desires.

FrancieBrady

oscarBravo wrote: »

Ah, now I see. I couldn't understand why you alone thought there was anything other than stupidity in Davis's approach, but now it makes sense: you're operating off the Republican caricature of Fine Gael as the Irish wing of the Tories.

I guess if there's anything that can make a stupid strategy seem smart, it's a stupid perspective on it.

From where I am standing, it isn't a caricature.

EdgeCase

I think you also have to realise they don't understand Irish politics. The concept of a proportionally elected parliament and parities in the opposition having constructive debates with the rest of the house, actively participating in committees and so on is an alien concept to the Tories in particular who only see things as "us" vs "them" and winner takes all.

They also don't understand that there isn't a unionist / pro Brexit point of view in any Irish political party. They're all coming from the same side on this - nobody wants a hard border and they're willing to play hard ball and use influence.

The UK has caused a major problem for Ireland that could actually cost lives. This isn't a game of party politics.

If he wants to further harden the Irish line on Brexit - he's going the right way about it. That's for sure.

LuckyLloyd

It has been the policy of successive Irish governments to push for greater integration between North and South. Kenny's government were distracted somewhat by cheap political games regarding SF in the south, but you will not find an Irish Government that wants a tangible border; or that wants to hinder the free movement of people and trade across it. I don't really believe that our negotiating position on Brexit would be much different even under John Bruton or Enda Kenny. Or, at least, if they did try and take such a position they would be hammered by the opposition here to such an extent that it would make their stance untenable.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

It's a strategy they have pursued consistently ever since the Brexit vote, and not just with respect to Ireland. It has utterly failed them in every way. They are still pursuing it. They keep expecting to exploit divisions within the EU, but the divisions obstinately refuse to be exploited. As you point out it's an old strategy, but the British don't need an old strategy; they need an effective one.

How is sticking to this obviously ineffective strategy anything but stupid? When a strategy is proving useless, "keep trying!" is a pretty stupid way of responding. They need to find a different strategy - one which actually resonates with the people they need to influence, rather than one which appeals the the prejudices of the people they are trying to please.

Seriously, the notion that the British are supreme diplomats, masters of the dark arts of bamboozling the lesser breeds without the laws, has been pretty comprehensively exploded by the progress of the Brexit negotiations, which have been (from the British point of view) a shambolic parade of ineptitude and incompetence right from the get-go. You're letting your obvious distaste for John Bruton and the political tradition he represents blind you to the reality here, which is that at the present time the Republic enjoys much more competent, skilled and able political leadership than the UK does. (And, for the record, I think this would still be true if we had an election tomorrow, and a change of government.)

FrancieBrady

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It has been the policy of successive Irish governments to push for greater integration between North and South. Kenny's government were distracted somewhat by cheap political games regarding SF in the south, but you will not find an Irish Government that wants a tangible border; or that wants to hinder the free movement of people and trade across it. I don't really believe that our negotiating position on Brexit would be much different even under John Bruton or Enda Kenny. Or, at least, if they did try and take such a position they would be hammered by the opposition here to such an extent that it would make their stance untenable.

Davis is looking for chinks in the armour, he is not looking for capitulation.

I just don't buy the 'stupid' tag here, it has been a feature of utterances from London for too long now.

EdgeCase

They seem to have a notion that Enda was somehow a very polite and mailable kind of Taoiseach. I think it was more a case that Brexit hadn't kicked in to the same extent when he was in office so, naturally enough the relationship was far more positive.

Leo probably isn't as polite, which frankly, isn't necessarily a bad thing. They seem to be genuinely irked and surprised by Ireland not just rolling over and being walked on.

I don't think Ireland's every had a positive relationship with this narrow aspect of Tory England and I can't really see any point in attempting to build one. They only understand tabloid bullying language.

This isn't the Tory Party of Major's era. Even Thatcher was easier to deal with. She may have been tough but she was ruthlessly logical. These guys are just unbelievable. It's all rhetoric and no facts.

My view of it is just batten down the hatches until the next UK general elections.

If the DUP had an ounce of sense or an understanding that they need to act in Northern Ireland's broader interests, they'd pick a non Brexit topic, save face and use it to pull the plug.

Restoring the status quo would be the absolute best scenario.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's a strategy they have pursued consistently ever since the Brexit vote, and not just with respect to Ireland. It has utterly failed them in every way. They are still pursuing it. They keep expecting to exploit divisions within the EU, but the divisions obstinately refuse to be exploited. As you point out it's an old strategy, but the British don't need an old strategy; they need an effective one.

How is sticking to this obviously ineffective strategy anything but stupid? When a strategy is proving useless, "keep trying!" is a pretty stupid way of responding. They need to find a different strategy - one which actually resonates with the people they need to influence, rather than one which appeals the the prejudices of the people they are trying to please.

Seriously, the notion that the British are supreme diplomats, masters of the dark arts of bamboozling the lesser breeds without the laws, has been pretty comprehensively exploded by the progress of the Brexit negotiations, which have been (from the British point of view) a shambolic parade of ineptitude and incompetence right from the get-go. You're letting your obvious distaste for John Bruton and the political tradition he represents blind you to the reality here, which is that at the present time the Republic enjoys much more competent, skilled and able political leadership than the UK does. (And, for the record, I think this would still be true if we had an election tomorrow, and a change of government.)

From where I am (the border) the British have managed to keep kicking certainty on what they propose down the road.

That is not a win for us, by any means.

Peregrinus

I think if Leo is being less polite, it's at least partly because he observed that Enda's politeness failed to get the British to acknowledge or address the border issue. As long as they are let ignore or wave away the border issue, they will. Any insistence that they address it they may regard as rude or impolite, but I think dispassionate observers will regard as a necessary stance by any Irish government.

LuckyLloyd

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is looking for chinks in the armour, he is not looking for capitulation.

I just don't buy the 'stupid' tag here, it has been a feature of utterances from London for too long now.

Meh, I can see what he's trying to do but - as pointed out eloquently above - the overriding strategy of 'divide and conquer' has utterly failed to work up till now. The bottom line here is FG's stance on Brexit is unanimously backed in the Dail and they have been flying in the polls despite policing scandals and the 8th amendment referendum etc. There is no motivation for FG to change tack or moderate language, etc.

FrancieBrady

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Meh, I can see what he's trying to do but - as pointed out eloquently above - the overriding strategy of 'divide and conquer' has utterly failed to work up till now. The bottom line here is FG's stance on Brexit is unanimously backed in the Dail and they have been flying in the polls despite policing scandals and the 8th amendment referendum etc. There is no motivation for FG to change tack or moderate language, etc.

Not sure how you can say it hasn't achieved anything for them.

They have come through December and we are still none the wiser on what is happening with the border.
And there is a school of thought that we have lost our advantage.

EdgeCase

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is looking for chinks in the armour, he is not looking for capitulation.

I just don't buy the 'stupid' tag here, it has been a feature of utterances from London for too long now.

Well considering that Iain Duncan Smith was claiming that the presidential elections were the cause of Irish opposition to brexit, I'd be quite happy to accept the explanation of willful blindness and complete ignorance.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/iain-duncan-smith-blames-imaginary-election-irish-brexit-difficulties/

They regularly make statements that have no basis in fact about all sorts of issues connected with brexit.

I suspect that there's an element that has figured out that you can just say anything and people will believe you and it's very hard to disprove.

Brexit has largely been based on that approach. Keep throwing mud. Some of it will stick.

Peregrinus

Honestly, can anybody remember a time when the pronouncements of senior members Her Majesty's Government were routinely met with such widespread and justified derision as today? This is a real low point in British political history.

FrancieBrady

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well considering that Iain Duncan Smith was claiming that the presidential elections were the cause of Irish opposition to brexit, I'd be quite happy to accept the explanation of willful blindness and complete ignorance.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/iain-duncan-smith-blames-imaginary-election-irish-brexit-difficulties/

They regularly make statements that have no basis in fact about all sorts of issues connected with brexit.

It's the persistence of this view or statement that prompted me to make the observation.

EdgeCase

I'm not sure that it's strategic tbh. I think they really are that uninformed about Irish politics.

Facts no longer seem to matter in the UK political world. I mean considering they ignored and suppressed government reports on the economic impacts of Brexit.

They're still ploughing full stream ahead into what is probably the biggest structural change for the UK economy since WWII and they've provided absolutely no plans whatsoever to business or industry.

It's a shocking level of incompetence.

They haven't even begun to recruit for or build all the customs facilities they're going to need for their plans!

They're throwing around confident notions that massive, unprecedentedly complex border and customs processing IT systems can be built and implemented in less than 2 years.

If they just keep going as they are going they will crash the UK and probably cause a global recession. I don't think we are taking that risk nearly seriously enough.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not sure how you can say it hasn't achieved anything for them.

They have come through December and we are still none the wiser on what is happening with the border.
And there is a school of thought that we have lost our advantage.

I'm afraid, Francie, that that's the same school of thought that thinks that Davis's recent comments are clever.

Let's be realistic here. The British aren't committed to anything until a withdrawal agreement is negotiated, signed, ratified and enters into force. That will not happen until 29 March 2019. There is no way, there never was any way, in which the British could have been legally committed to an open border (or indeed legally committed to anything) in December.

Arguing that Ireland hasn't "won" because it hasn't achieved the impossible is Brexiteer logic. Don't fall into that trap. The measure of Ireland's position is not what it hasn't achieved but what it has. And what it has achieved is (a) an acknowledgement by the UK that there will be no Withdrawal Agreement unless it delivers an open border, and (b) if no other way of delivering an open border is agreed, it will be delivered by maintaining NI in "full regulatory alignment" with the EU indefinitely.

That's an impressively strong position for Ireland to be in right now. The UK aren't legally committed to it - they were never going to be, at this stage - but the cost to them of not honouring the political commitments they have made about this will be no Withdrawal Agreement, which would be a disaster for them.

I cannot honestly see a better outcome, at this stage in the game, that would be realistically deliverable.

LuckyLloyd

EdgeCase wrote: »

If the DUP had an ounce of sense or an understanding that they need to act in Northern Ireland's broader interests, they'd pick a non Brexit topic, save face and use it to pull the plug.

Restoring the status quo would be the absolute best scenario.

If Brexit plays out with the UK leaving the Customs Union and Single Market the current status quo for the North will be untenable.

I do think the best thing the DUP could do for their own interests right now is get the devolved institutions back up and running, but they don't seem to have any grasp of the long term.

EdgeCase

I think this is where Ireland and the EU institutions are going to struggle to deal with the UK. We're talking about facts, evidence based reasoning, reality and using economic and logical arguments.

They, on the other hand, just make stuff up to suit their narrative, in the full knowledge that there's a media and online echo chamber that will not question it and a voter base who are being fed what it wants to hear.

How can anyone negotiate with that?

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is a real low point in British political history.

They have had them before.

Suez. Where Eden bounced the UK into a war over a canal going through a country that wanted it back.

Las Malvinas/Faulklands war. Where MT went to war to win a general election and nearly lost what was left of the navy.

The Iraq WMD fiasco and 15 minutes. Where Tony Blair used fake facts to justify backing the USA in the face of opposition from the UN.

Just a few gems, and that leaves out the various economic disasters they have had over the years, or the internal fiascoes like the Poll Tax, miners strike, three day weeks, etc etc.