Brexit discussion thread III

Leroy42

That is a very good summation of the current position Peregrinus

I was also of the opinion that the Irish had let there position become weaker by allowing the UK to continue to kick the can down the road, and whilst I am still apprehensive amount the coming months, I can see that the Irish have got about as much as they could.

The line from the UK that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, is, and was designed by them, to give them wiggle room throughout the process and give them the ability to shift positions. However, the EU has been pretty good at tying them into specifics, in as much as that is possible with a party that doesn't want to deal with specifics.

I would have preferred it all to have been signed and agreed at this stage, but that is simply unrealistic, particularly given that the UK cannot even decide on what it wants in the first place. But time is the ultimate factor here, and time is running down for the UK.

Whilst the Irish would not like the situation to go indefinitely, if that is the only option rather than a hard brexit they will take it as it leaves everything as is.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

I'm afraid, Francie, that that's the same school of thought that thinks that Davis's recent comments are clever.

Let's be realistic here. The British aren't committed to anything until a withdrawal agreement is negotiated, signed, ratified and enters into force. That will not happen until 29 March 2019. There is no way, there never was any way, in which the British could have been legally committed to an open border (or indeed legally committed to anything) in December.

Arguing that Ireland hasn't "won" because it hasn't achieved the impossible is Brexiteer logic. Don't fall into that trap. The measure of Ireland's position is not what it hasn't achieved but what it has. And what it has achieved is (a) an acknowledgement by the UK that there will be no Withdrawal Agreement unless it delivers an open border, and (b) if no other way of delivering an open border is agreed, it will be delivered by maintaining NI in "full regulatory alignment" with the EU indefinitely.

That's an impressively strong position for Ireland to be in right now. The UK aren't legally committed to it - they were never going to be, at this stage - but the cost to them of not honouring the political commitments they have made about this will be no Withdrawal Agreement, which would be a disaster for them.

I cannot honestly see a better outcome, at this stage in the game, that would be realistically deliverable.

Don't misquote me.
I didn't say Ireland hasn't 'won'.

I said it is arguable that we have lost the initiative and that there is a school of thought that we will be bullied into accepting a border if that is the last thing on the table.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Don't misquote me.
I didn't say Ireland hasn't 'won'.

I said it is arguable that we have lost the initiative and that there is a school of thought that we will be bullied into accepting a border if that is the last thing on the table.

Yes, but that would have been the situation regardless. If the UK go back on the commitments they have entered into (both the December agreement and more importantly the GFA) what makes you think that any agreement made with the EU over the border now would hold any sway in the end?

That is the key problem. If you are dealing with an honest broker than I would agree with you, but the UK insist that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We have even had threats from Davies that the agreed divorce settlement won't be paid unless they get what they want.

That is the level you are dealing with.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but that would have been the situation regardless. If the UK go back on the commitments they have entered into (both the December agreement and more importantly the GFA) what makes you think that any agreement made with the EU over the border now would hold any sway in the end?

That is the key problem. If you are dealing with an honest broker than I would agree with you, but the UK insist that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We have even had threats from Davies that the agreed divorce settlement won't be paid unless they get what they want.

That is the level you are dealing with.

Why then are the EU proceeding?

Because a hard Brexit hurts all.

If the UK get to the end and the only thing in the way is us, what do you think will happen?

LuckyLloyd

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why then are the EU proceeding?

Because a hard Brexit hurts all.

If the UK get to the end and the only thing in the way is us, what do you think will happen?

But what scenario do you envisage where a hard border is a constituent aspect of a Brexit deal that the EU wants? A border implies no agreement on free trade or movement of people and Britain out of the single market and customs union. That's really a no deal scenario or close to it and yes unfortunately we'd have to accept a border in such a scenario, but it will be part and parcel of the UK failing to reach any agreement with the EU.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why then are the EU proceeding?

Because a hard Brexit hurts all.

If the UK get to the end and the only thing in the way is us, what do you think will happen?

I totally agree, and have said so previously. But what is the other option?

To stop the talks now? The EU are hoping (I imagine) that bringing them close to a deal will make the UK see the cost of the hard brexit, which they currently seem to dismiss.

It may end up as a hard border either way, but the EU will have tried and they would have gained nothing (since the UK have made it clear that any agreement is not worth anything until final sign-off anyway) by demanding a sign-off now but probably guaranteed a hard brexit (which as you correctly state they don't want).

The question, which I have raised myself, is whether the EU will get close to a deal and smudge it at the end to avoid a hard brexit by giving in on the border. The issue with that is it opens the EU to many other probable issues. Norway will certainly look for the same treatment, Turkey will probably push for it as well. The US will no doubt use it to push back on the regulations that will be a major issue in trade.

And that seems to be where the UK are missing the point. They seem to think this is a totally isolated case, that how they are treated will not have nay knockon effects. But the UK will soon be just another non member and other non members will be looking for the same type of deal (if not in border terms than something else) armed with the fact that the supposedly cornerstones of the EU are open to negotiation.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

I totally agree, and have said so previously. But what is the other option?

To stop the talks now? The EU are hoping (I imagine) that bringing them close to a deal will make the UK see the cost of the hard brexit, which they currently seem to dismiss.

It may end up as a hard border either way, but the EU will have tried and they would have gained nothing (since the UK have made it clear that any agreement is not worth anything until final sign-off anyway) by demanding a sign-off now but probably guaranteed a hard brexit (which as you correctly state they don't want).

The question, which I have raised myself, is whether the EU will get close to a deal and smudge it at the end to avoid a hard brexit by giving in on the border. The issue with that is it opens the EU to many other probable issues. Norway will certainly look for the same treatment, Turkey will probably push for it as well. The US will no doubt use it to push back on the regulations that will be a major issue in trade.

And that seems to be where the UK are missing the point. They seem to think this is a totally isolated case, that how they are treated will not have nay knockon effects. But the UK will soon be just another non member and other non members will be looking for the same type of deal (if not in border terms than something else) armed with the fact that the supposedly cornerstones of the EU are open to negotiation.

So basically we are just pawns in the wider context.

That only convinces me that Davis is trying to weaken Dublin by small cuts.

EdgeCase

Well the only sanction the EU has is to walk away from the table. That's also the only sanction the UK has too, although economically speaking, that carries less weight given the remainder of the EU is a much bigger market than the UK.

So ultimately, we either have a deal with the UK or one side walks off and we defualt to no deal and that means a Northern Ireland border.

So really this is up to the Tories. They're the ones who will be deciding what the fate of the North and the border is.

If they don't want to deal with the EU and come up with a sane solution, there's really nothing we can do except threaten to veto the economic aspect of any deal entirely but the Tories are threatening that anyway all the time. Many of them want no remaining connection with Europe.

So unfortunately, NI is at the whim of the Tories and DUP continue to put them in that position by not walking away.

Really the only party with the power to shape this is, worryingly, the DUP and they seem to have no interest or ability to move beyond hardline sectarianism so, I think to be quite honest, NI is in for chaos.

If the DUP wanted to have a sane solution to this - they have the power to wind up the UK government cause a general election in the UK and let people have their say.

I don’t know how anyone could argue (be they nationalist or unionist) that this mess is good for Northern Ireland. It’s a potential social and economic disaster.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So basically we are just pawns in the wider context.

That only convinces me that Davis is trying to weaken Dublin by small cuts.

Absolutely. And we would be in far worse position of not for the EU and the GFA. You need to understand that many in the UK are willing to get rid of NI itself to get Brexit, they really have little care for us.

There is no doubt that Davies is trying to weaken Dublin, aided by the likes of Trimble and those MPs calling into question the GFA itself.

The problem with that approach is that Ireland really only has one option. We need to push for the UK to stay within the EU, and failing that, to push for the effects on Ireland to be as small as possible.

A hard border is one of the last things that we want.

So they might well gain some that are sympathetic to the UK position, but that falls away as soon as the cost to us is factored in.

Regardless of the feelings towards the UK, very few and certainly none that I recall, people are calling for Ireland to prostrate itself at the altar of Brexit.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Absolutely. And we would be in far worse position of not for the EU and the GFA. You need to understand that many in the UK are willing to get rid of NI itself to get Brexit, they really have little care for us.

There is no doubt that Davies is trying to weaken Dublin, aided by the likes of Trimble and those MPs calling into question the GFA itself.

The problem with that approach is that Ireland really only has one option. We need to push for the UK to stay within the EU, and failing that, to push for the effects on Ireland to be as small as possible.

A hard border is one of the last things that we want.

So they might well gain some that are sympathetic to the UK position, but that falls away as soon as the cost to us is factored in.

Regardless of the feelings towards the UK, very few and certainly none that I recall, people are calling for Ireland to prostrate itself at the altar of Brexit.

Which is all I said at the beginning. In terms of keeping the border decision fluid, it's working.
Despite Dublin telling us on a number of occasions that commitments are 'bulletproof'.

Not many on the actual border would agree.

Charles Babbage

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think if Leo is being less polite, it's at least partly because he observed that Enda's politeness failed to get the British to acknowledge or address the border issue. As long as they are let ignore or wave away the border issue, they will. Any insistence that they address it they may regard as rude or impolite, but I think dispassionate observers will regard as a necessary stance by any Irish government.

Enda stated the issues. The British did not listen, Leo had to be a bit more forceful in making the point.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Don't misquote me.
I didn't say Ireland hasn't 'won'.

I said it is arguable that we have lost the initiative and that there is a school of thought that we will be bullied into accepting a border if that is the last thing on the table.

If that happens, it will be because of "perfidious Albion".

It won't be that we will be bullied into accepting a border, it will be that the UK will have failed to deliver on their commitments, leaving us no legal option other than impose a border. Our legal obligation to our partners requires us to maintain an external EU border. Short of withdrawing from the EU, if the UK breaks its promises, that is what we have to do.

Econ_

Weasel words from Davis.

Those comments aren't directed at Ireland at all - he knows they will have no effect on the Irish approach.

It seems to me that he's trying to get ahead in the shaping of a narrative that doesn't depict the UK as incompetent and reckless because they have to welsh on an international treaty they signed up to in December - where they categorically agreed to avoid a hard border.

He must be getting tips from his regular meetings with the editor of the Daily Mail.

LuckyLloyd

Meanwhile, the opinion pieces in the Telegraph offer comic relief of sorts:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/10/treasure-eurosceptic-story-supporting-new-museum-brexit/

The suggestion that no - one has ever considered the reasons for Brexit as worthy of intellectual study is particularly egregious, but the whole thing is bonkers in its own way.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

They haven't even begun to recruit for or build all the customs facilities they're going to need for their plans!

Spoiler alert: that is because they are not going to need those facilities because when push comes to shove, they cannot really leave.

EdgeCase

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Spoiler alert: that is because they are not going to need those facilities because when push comes to shove, they cannot really leave.

I don't think they're that good at planning. There'll just be 100km tail backs from Dover and then they'll respond by blaming the French.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

I don't think they're that good at planning. There'll just be 100km tail backs from Dover and then they'll respond by blaming the French.

I think they will "leave" the EU next march and declare victory, but the "transition period" will be EU membership with a few stickers on it and it will drag on for many, many years, eventually becoming the new normal.

No way will they pull the trigger on a hard customs border with 100km queues, mass factory layoffs, food shortages in the shops, riots, baton charges etc.

Brexiteers will either move on (Boris) or return to the shadows (Gove).

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Spoiler alert: that is because they are not going to need those facilities because when push comes to shove, they cannot really leave.

Jebus, at least use the spoiler blackout. I hadn't read the end of the book yet!

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think they will "leave" the EU next march and declare victory, but the "transition period" will be EU membership with a few stickers on it and it will drag on for many, many years, eventually becoming the new normal.

No way will they pull the trigger on a hard customs border with 100km queues, mass factory layoffs, food shortages in the shops, riots, baton charges etc.

Brexiteers will either move on (Boris) or return to the shadows (Gove).

If that happens we will have a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If that happens we will have a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself.

And if they pull the trigger?

Ringside seat to the UK falling off a cliff into a depression and then losing Scotland.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And if they pull the trigger?

Ringside seat to the UK falling off a cliff into a depression and then losing Scotland.

Yep, it's a bolt on certainty imo.

I said on here before the Brexit vote that we are watching the slow break-up of the UK.

Sam Russell

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm not sure that it's strategic tbh. I think they really are that uninformed about Irish politics.

Facts no longer seem to matter in the UK political world. I mean considering they ignored and suppressed government reports on the economic impacts of Brexit.

They're still ploughing full stream ahead into what is probably the biggest structural change for the UK economy since WWII and they've provided absolutely no plans whatsoever to business or industry.

It's a shocking level of incompetence.

They haven't even begun to recruit for or build all the customs facilities they're going to need for their plans!

They're throwing around confident notions that massive, unprecedentedly complex border and customs processing IT systems can be built and implemented in less than 2 years.

If they just keep going as they are going they will crash the UK and probably cause a global recession. I don't think we are taking that risk nearly seriously enough.

I saw they think 1,300 new customs officers will be enough. So @ £100,000 per, that would be £130 million per year. Now this equates to about how many France and the Netherlands combined will hire. Of course NI is not included.

EdgeCase

Sam Russell wrote: »

I saw they think 1,300 new customs officers will be enough. So @ £100,000 per, that would be £130 million per year. Now this equates to about how many France and the Netherlands combined will hire. Of course NI is not included.

That doesn't include the other infrastructure that's needed and you'll also need a lot of support staff behind those customs officers - IT systems, logistics systems, laboratory staff, management of facilities etc etc, none of those things happen by magic either and you have to physically build facilities, which isn't going to happen in the Brexit time frame.

They'll have to put out a tender for a design and build contract for those port facilities. That could take quite some time to get through and that's before they even start the design, planning permissions, land acquisitions, construction, approval of IT systems, etc etc..

None of this stuff can be done by snapping your fingers.

You'd need at least a decade, unless you want some kind of freakish situation where the Army is operating customs controls out of tents like somewhere in a war zone.

Leroy42

Just on a point of trade I have been wondering. As part of the bidding for contracts process, my understanding is that over certain limits a contract needs to be opened up to any EU companies that bid, and the state must go with the winning bid regardless of nationality.

My question though is more about the UK companies after Brexit. Will they, no longer EU members, be allowed to bid or is it that they would be down the line a bit?

Thanks

EdgeCase

Well, that would depend on how the UK negotiates with the EU.
If it has no deal, UK companies would also be excluded from biding for EU countries' public projects and EU bidders could be excluded from the UK.

It's really impossible to know until we have some kind of an agreement.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just on a point of trade I have been wondering. As part of the bidding for contracts process, my understanding is that over certain limits a contract needs to be opened up to any EU companies that bid, and the state must go with the winning bid regardless of nationality.

My question though is more about the UK companies after Brexit. Will they, no longer EU members, be allowed to bid or is it that they would be down the line a bit?

Thanks

It's already happening.

Belfast won't be city of culture. UK companies won't be allowed to work on Galileo GPS. No access to EU databases.


No the state doesn't have to go with the lowest bid, look at how the French make their own passports by invoking national security.

Then again that Turkish company was building roads here.

flatty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Honestly, can anybody remember a time when the pronouncements of senior members Her Majesty's Government were routinely met with such widespread and justified derision as today? This is a real low point in British political history.

As an Irish person still living in England, it is frankly embarrassing even to me.

flatty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but that would have been the situation regardless. If the UK go back on the commitments they have entered into (both the December agreement and more importantly the GFA) what makes you think that any agreement made with the EU over the border now would hold any sway in the end?

That is the key problem. If you are dealing with an honest broker than I would agree with you, but the UK insist that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We have even had threats from Davies that the agreed divorce settlement won't be paid unless they get what they want.

That is the level you are dealing with.

Why then are the EU proceeding?

Because a hard Brexit hurts all.

If the UK get to the end and the only thing in the way is us, what do you think will happen?

Then I think the eu will stand foursquare behind Ireland, and the UK will suffer, and suffer hard. Not the politicians who arbitrarily drew their red lines, but the people working to pay their wages.

flatty

I think the total lack of infrastructure planning is the only concrete signpost in all of this. The UK will capitulate on everything. They will have to ask the eu to hold their noses for a couple of years whilst they lie about it to their own public.

Leroy42

flatty wrote: »

I think the total lack of infrastructure planning is the only concrete signpost in all of this. The UK will capitulate on everything. They will have to ask the eu to hold their noses for a couple of years whilst they lie about it to their own public.

Alternatively they could be banking on their being such disorganisation in both the UK and the EU that the EU will be forced to step in to settle things down. Sort of like the bank bailouts. Wasn't our fault but we ended up paying.

Could the UK be looking at Brexit as almost impossible and faced with having to admit that and taking the hardest line have opted to push their luck.

Brexit will cause pain no matter what, getting a few more fishing boats ain't gong to solve that, so maybe they are hoping that their complete lack of preparedness will force the EU into giving in

EdgeCase

I honestly don't think there's much chance of them backing down - public opinion isn't going to allow them to and this argument isn't about practicalities, rationality or any of those kinds of awkward concepts. It's just pure, undiluted English nationalism and very little else.

Everything they've done to date, would indicate that they don't really care about the economic consequences or are willing to pay them for the sake of a complete Brexit.

I think we've really got ringside seats at what could be the final death throws of whatever was left of the mentality of British Empire. I would expect a chaotic period and something other than the UK that exists now to emerge.

The other thing that they're underestimating is how different the USA may be by 2020. It's quite likely the phase of Trumpism may come to an abrupt end with an impeachment or two and you could end up with a UK that has destroyed the heavily US backed Northern Ireland peace process and tried to align itself with Trump in other areas of politics having to cut a trade deal with a Democratic President and possibly an administration involving allies of the Clintons etc etc.

Things in the US are likely to start moving back to sanity after the mid-terms.

flatty

EdgeCase wrote: »

I honestly don't think there's much chance of them backing down - public opinion isn't going to allow them to and this argument isn't about practicalities, rationality or any of those kinds of awkward concepts. It's just pure, undiluted English nationalism and very little else.

Everything they've done to date, would indicate that they don't really care about the economic consequences or are willing to pay them for the sake of a complete Brexit.

I think we've really got ringside seats at what could be the final death throws of whatever was left of the mentality of British Empire. I would expect a chaotic period and something other than the UK that exists now to emerge.

It's not what they do though, back down or no, it's how they paint what they do. The average UK punter neither knows, nor particularly cares. Everyone is confusing an individual exit vote as one vehemently anti eu, and vehemently Pro brexit, which just isn't true.

Really Interested

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just on a point of trade I have been wondering. As part of the bidding for contracts process, my understanding is that over certain limits a contract needs to be opened up to any EU companies that bid, and the state must go with the winning bid regardless of nationality.

My question though is more about the UK companies after Brexit. Will they, no longer EU members, be allowed to bid or is it that they would be down the line a bit?

Thanks

WTO also has such rules https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/gproc_e/gpa_overview_e.htm

It will be interesting to see how the fall back to WTO will play out.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If that happens we will have a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself.

I think it is dreadful the way that many Irish people have taken to gloating over what will happen to the UK post-Brexit.

The UK are our closest neighbours, they are our biggest trading partner, they are our closest allies within the EU, many of us have relations and friends living and working there. We should be sad and sympathetic rather than happy and gloating.

An attitude that we should be taking a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself is just so wrong on so many levels.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I think it is dreadful the way that many Irish people have taken to gloating over what will happen to the UK post-Brexit.

The UK are our closest neighbours, they are our biggest trading partner, they are our closest allies within the EU, many of us have relations and friends living and working there. We should be sad and sympathetic rather than happy and gloating.

An attitude that we should be taking a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself is just so wrong on so many levels.

No gloating, I have family and a few close friends dependent on the UK remaining viable.
In my opinion it isn't and we are already watching it's slow break up.

Really Interested

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's already happening.

Belfast won't be city of culture. UK companies won't be allowed to work on Galileo GPS. No access to EU databases.


No the state doesn't have to go with the lowest bid, look at how the French make their own passports by invoking national security.

Then again that Turkish company was building roads here.

In relation to passports the commission referred Austria to ECJ

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6226_en.htm

Decision was given 20th March 2018

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1523392342617&uri=CELEX:62016CJ0187

“Declares that, by having awarded, without an EU-wide call for tenders, service contracts for the production of chip passports, emergency passports, residence permits, identity cards, credit card-sized driving licences and credit card-sized vehicle registration certificates directly to Österreichische Staatsdruckerei GmbH and by maintaining national provisions which require contracting authorities to award those service contracts directly to that company, without an EU-wide call for tenders, the Republic of Austria has failed to fulfil its obligations under Article 4(2) and Article 8 of Council Directive 92/50/EEC of 18 June 1992 relating to the coordination of procedures for the award of public service contracts, read in conjunction with Articles 11 to 37 of that directive, and Article 14 and Article 20 of Directive 2004/18/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 March 2004 on the coordination of procedures for the award of public works contracts, public supply contracts and public service contracts, read in conjunction with Articles 23 to 55 of that directive;”

Austria argued National Security.

Leroy42

What choice do we have? We have tried to engage with them, Enda tried to make the EU case during the campaign, but this is something that they proudly and chest-thumpingly done for themselves.

And they have allowed the worst types (Boris, Farage, Davies) to be the cheerleaders. We have also had to endure the likes of JRM stating that Ireland would be better off with the UK, trying to open up a divide with the EU.

We have the likes of IDS and Davies proudly declaring that they understand Ireland better than we do.

J Mysterio

Barry Gardiner describes key part of Labour's Brexit strategy as 'b******s'

Frontbencher rubbishes the idea that the UK could get 'exact same benefits' after leaving EU – one of Labour's six tests

In a new recording, obtained by the BBC, Mr Gardiner reportedly said:

“Well let’s just take one test – the exact same benefits. B******s.

“Always has been b******s and it remains it.

“We know very well that we cannot have the exact same benefits and actually it would have made sense – because it was the Tories that said they were going to secure the exact same benefits – and our position should have been to say they have said they are going to secure the exact same benefits and we are going to hold them to that standard.”

flatty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Barry Gardiner describes key part of Labour's Brexit strategy as 'b******s'

Frontbencher rubbishes the idea that the UK could get 'exact same benefits' after leaving EU – one of Labour's six tests

In a new recording, obtained by the BBC, Mr Gardiner reportedly said:

“Well let’s just take one test – the exact same benefits. B******s.

“Always has been b******s and it remains it.

“We know very well that we cannot have the exact same benefits and actually it would have made sense – because it was the Tories that said they were going to secure the exact same benefits – and our position should have been to say they have said they are going to secure the exact same benefits and we are going to hold them to that standard.”

He is right. If he had any courage he would have come straight out and said so though.

listermint

blanch152 wrote: »

I think it is dreadful the way that many Irish people have taken to gloating over what will happen to the UK post-Brexit.

The UK are our closest neighbours, they are our biggest trading partner, they are our closest allies within the EU, many of us have relations and friends living and working there. We should be sad and sympathetic rather than happy and gloating.

An attitude that we should be taking a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself is just so wrong on so many levels.

Ok enjoy it as much as I like.

No one in this country fed then bile about other nations. No one in this country voted to remove themselves from the largest free trade market in the world.
No one in this country told them to be utter xenophobic.

So I'll enjoy it all they like at this point they deserve the hardships that is coming because it's nothing to do with the EU . In fact he EU staved off most of that hardship in forgotten areas up and down that island.

I've no time for the rhetoric anymore let them out .

And no I won't feel sorry for them because the crap that's coming out about Ireland in the last few months they deserve no sympathy at all. It's cake time and the cakes gone off eat it up.

flatty

listermint wrote: »

blanch152 wrote: »

I think it is dreadful the way that many Irish people have taken to gloating over what will happen to the UK post-Brexit.

The UK are our closest neighbours, they are our biggest trading partner, they are our closest allies within the EU, many of us have relations and friends living and working there. We should be sad and sympathetic rather than happy and gloating.

An attitude that we should be taking a ringside seat to the UK devouring itself is just so wrong on so many levels.

Ok enjoy it as much as I like.

No one in this country fed then bile about other nations. No one in this country voted to remove themselves from the largest free trade market in the world.
No one in this country told them to be utter xenophobic.

So I'll enjoy it all they like at this point they deserve the hardships that is coming because it's nothing to do with the EU . In fact he EU staved off most of that hardship in forgotten areas up and down that island.

I've no time for the rhetoric anymore let them out .

And no I won't feel sorry for them because the crap that's coming out about Ireland in the last few months they deserve no sympathy at all. It's cake time and the cakes gone off eat it up.

You are mixing the sharp end of the tory party with the swathe of normal people who are just trying to make ends meet, and completely forgetting that seventeen million people did not vote to brexit at all.

blanch152

flatty wrote: »

You are mixing the sharp end of the tory party with the swathe of normal people who are just trying to make ends meet, and completely forgetting that seventeen million people did not vote to brexit at all.

It is utterly strange to see people rubbing their hands in glee over this, talking about ringside seats and enjoying it as much as they like.

Do they not realise that Ireland will suffer as well?
Do they not realise that most of us have friends and relations who will suffer in the UK as well?

Seriously, some of the commentary has been bizarre.

Leroy42

Again, I ask you want exactly do you want people to do?

Its like a dark comedy at this stage. Everyone has been telling them what is going to happen, and not only to themselves to they will inflict damage on others, yet they continue on.

And its not use claiming its not all their fault, in Ireland we all paid the price for the bank bailout and were told we all partied, thats democracy for you.

Am I enjoying this, no, I really wish they would wake up and cancel the whole bloody thing. But that is not going to happen and I have no control over it. For the last 20 years I have gotten used to a island that no longer needed to be concerned about the exact flag because most barriers had been taken down and we could get on with what matters. But the UK decided that extra fish or bendy bananas was more important.

So all myself, and I'm guessing, other posters can do, is point out the absurdity of it all and hope that something might filter through to someone that can make a difference.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It is utterly strange to see people rubbing their hands in glee over this, talking about ringside seats and enjoying it as much as they like.

Do they not realise that Ireland will suffer as well?
Do they not realise that most of us have friends and relations who will suffer in the UK as well?

Seriously, some of the commentary has been bizarre.

I don't like boxing. I didn't use 'ringside' seat as something enjoyable.
Will I enjoy politicians taking the blame for cheerleading this, yes I will. But not the suffering of the ordinary decent people of the UK or here for that matter.

Rain Ascending

Econ_ wrote: »

Weasel words from Davis.

Those comments aren't directed at Ireland at all - he knows they will have no effect on the Irish approach.
It seems to me that he's trying to get ahead in the shaping of a narrative that doesn't depict the UK as incompetent...

Agreed. There was a lot of discussion this morning here about how David Davis was trying direct some messages our way, over here on this side of the Irish Sea. The reality is that the number one negotiation going on at the moment is within the UK, as to the shape and direction of the country in the short, medium, and long term.

His messaging should be seen as part of a broader pattern of trying to shut down alternative voices and perspectives in that UK-internal debate:

• Supreme Court insisting on Parliament having it's say: "enemies of the people"
• People advocating for the protection of the GFA: "look no Executive, the GFA is failing anyway"
• Electoral Commission investigating coordination within the various Leave campaigns: "don't pay attention to them, sure haven't half of the board expressed support for Remain - can't trust their judgement"
• EU sectoral briefing documents: "the EU is punishing us again"
• Irish government expressing concern and fighting its own corner: "they are looking over their shoulder at Sinn Féin"

As communication strategies go, it's dirty, but effective up to a point ... the point where other external realities start to intrude, whether it be negotiations with a rules-driven organization like the EU or businesses quietly relocating/investing outside the UK or talented EU staff leaving the UK.


The problem with playing the man, not the ball, is that sometimes the ball is more important than the man.

WomanSkirtFan8

blanch152 wrote: »

It is utterly strange to see people rubbing their hands in glee over this, talking about ringside seats and enjoying it as much as they like.

Do they not realise that Ireland will suffer as well?
Do they not realise that most of us have friends and relations who will suffer in the UK as well?

Seriously, some of the commentary has been bizarre.

Not bizarre but realistic. Something that nobody for brexit seems to be able to be at the moment. They're completely irrational and don't want to hear any facts at all.

I personally, like many other have already said, don't like seeing anyone or any country suffer in the way that England, in particular, is going to be suffering in the next couple of years.
But the truth is that they were the ones who voted (on the bases of an absolutely lie) to leave the EU. They didn't even stop to consider what the potential consequences were/are going to be of this.

When it does go wrong when it hits them, they'll do what the Brits always do which is to try and blame everyone else for their plight (including us) when it was them that will have destroyed their own country out of fear and paranoia.

Do/Will I feel sorry for them? No because they brought it on themselves. That's not being nasty or anything. That's just being realistic.

WomanSkirtFan8

Leroy42 wrote: »

Again, I ask you want exactly do you want people to do?

Its like a dark comedy at this stage. Everyone has been telling them what is going to happen, and not only to themselves to they will inflict damage on others, yet they continue on.

It's very shakespearean in a lot of ways in its absolutely tragedy.:rolleyes:

sink

blanch152 wrote: »

It is utterly strange to see people rubbing their hands in glee over this, talking about ringside seats and enjoying it as much as they like.

Do they not realise that Ireland will suffer as well?
Do they not realise that most of us have friends and relations who will suffer in the UK as well?

Seriously, some of the commentary has been bizarre.

I'm only taking glee at BoJo, Davis, Gove, Mogg (and people who share their worldview) etc, manipulation and deception coming up against a brick wall of reality. In fact many Brits are enjoying it too, just take a peek at r/unitedkingdom. While I know this is going to hurt us almost as much as the UK which leads me to trepidation and anger; the only solace I can find is laughing at their incompetence, which I find better for my mental health.

wes

blanch152 wrote: »

Do they not realise that Ireland will suffer as well?

Suffering caused by Brexiters. I think the schadenfreude is perfectly reasonable, considering the considerable hatred that has been sent our way from them.

I do have sympathy for Remainers, but again that is a 100% on the Brexiters.

Peregrinus

wes wrote: »

Suffering caused by Brexiters. I think the schadenfreude is perfectly reasonable, considering the considerable hatred that has been sent our way from them.

I do have sympathy for Remainers, but again that is a 100% on the Brexiters.

This. Seeing Irish people gloating over the harm the UK is inflicting on itself is not edifying, but it's hardly surprising. It's precisely because Brexit will harmy Ireland and the Brexiteers don't give a tu'penny damn about that that we find some grim satisfaction in the thought that Brexit will harm the Brexiteers also.