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Brexit discussion thread III

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,129 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    As above when I moved to the UK the only proof the state had of my residence was my natiinal insurance and tax details. Nothing formal about my status. Being a young lad and not planning on staying for long I wasn't bothered but a colleague who was active in the Labour party recommended that I formalize my position if I wanted to settle there. Looking back he was right and I would recommend that any Irish person living in the UK establish their right to do so formally.

    Or dont and move to a country that doesn't portray such a disastrous world outlook.

    Why would anyone pay thousands to live somewhere where there is a simmering unrest of xenophobia and a fear of other nationality's. Its bubbling


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,919 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I heard on Ch 4 News last night a comment that the fees for the various paperwork to get the Right to Remain certification was 'many thousands'. Is that the case?

    Edit: Just checked - yes the fees are in the thousands - see here.

    Will these fees apply after Brexit for UK citizens that are currently in the EU ? I can see some outrage if they do.
    Peregrinus wrote: »
    How, as a matter of interest, did you "formalise your position"?

    You formalise your position by paying up to £1,300 per head for the documentation. If you want to use the phone, then it is a high premium rate call.

    Look at the charges in the link I gave above. It is outrageous to charge British Citizens who have lived in the UK for forty years this kind of fees to prove what the UK Gov knows already.

    It is undisguised racism.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Alun wrote: »
    Regarding lack of evidence of residence status, it's not that different here. I'm a UK citizen living here since 2001 who is thinking of applying for Irish citizenship, and the only way of proving residence seems to be providing piles of bank statements and utility bills.
    Yes. But the difference is that we're not threatening to deport you if you can't produce the bank statements and utility bills.

    Any EU citizen, seeking to be naturalised in any other EU member state, would face the problem you're facing. Because of free movement and open borders, your movements in and out of EU countries are not checked or recorded so, if you need to establish a certain period of residence in order to be naturalised, there are not government records that will do this for you; hence the recourse to utility bills, bank statements, leases, insurance policies, etc.

    But, because you're an EU citizen, your right to be here is in no way contingent on all or any of these documents; it rests simply on the fact that you're an EU citizen.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,919 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Surely, as an EU citizen, you can put your name on the electoral register.


  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    How, as a matter of interest, did you "formalise your position"?
    I didn't - I moved home to Ireland.
    listermint wrote: »
    Or dont and move to a country that doesn't portray such a disastrous world outlook.

    Why would anyone pay thousands to live somewhere where there is a simmering unrest of xenophobia and a fear of other nationality's. Its bubbling
    My friends who are still there are well established having married, had kids etc It was easy to move around when we had no commitments but it wouldn't be that easy to move now.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Surely, as an EU citizen, you can put your name on the electoral register.
    Yes, you can.

    I'm not sure, though, that INIS finds that very convincing proof of residence. There are quite a lot of names on the electoral register belonging to people who don't reside here (as the phenomenon of the "home to vote" campaign illustrates).

    You're supposed to be ordinarily resident in Ireland to be on the register. But for something like naturalisation INIS requires rather more robust proof.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,254 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Soldah wrote: »
    Ireland is a part of Europe but Brexit have lead the British out from Union but good for all those do vote yes to leave EU the facts is the British politics wanted this for all country for the British best chose now them are like America an own country with interests. 

    No more suffer in posential military conflict in Union. 

    :) 
    :ninja:

    Is English your first language? Just curious.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,488 ✭✭✭✭Alun


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Any EU citizen, seeking to be naturalised in any other EU member state, would face the problem you're facing. Because of free movement and open borders, your movements in and out of EU countries are not checked or recorded so, if you need to establish a certain period of residence in order to be naturalised, there are not government records that will do this for you; hence the recourse to utility bills, bank statements, leases, insurance policies, etc.
    The main difference in other EU countries, or at least the ones I lived in before moving here, Germany and Netherlands, was that they have a formal registration process in place whereby everybody, regardless of citizenship, has to register with the local town hall, so they have a formal record of your address. Looking at the website regarding applying for Dutch citizenship by naturalisation here, there appears to be no requirement to supply any supplementary evidence, just proof of residence from the Municipal Personal Records Database.
    But, because you're an EU citizen, your right to be here is in no way contingent on all or any of these documents; it rests simply on the fact that you're an EU citizen.
    For the time being at least.

    Anyway, my reasons for obtaining Irish citizenship are also to do with wanting to have citizenship of a country that's hopefully not intent on leaving the EU any time soon, as I may well decide at a later stage to relocate to another EU country.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes, you can.

    I'm not sure, though, that INIS finds that very convincing proof of residence. There are quite a lot of names on the electoral register belonging to people who don't reside here (as the phenomenon of the "home to vote" campaign illustrates).

    You're supposed to be ordinarily resident in Ireland to be on the register. But for something like naturalisation INIS requires rather more robust proof.

    And therein lies the rub; furnish bank statements by the year & metric ton? Sure. Same for utility bills and the like. NI number registration, yup. Clearance check to work inside a British government IT system? Yup. Proof of rent, proof of mortgage, electoral registrar, etc. etc. etc.

    But as soon as you ask me to "prove" when I moved to the UK, it all falls over given that the culture inside the Home Office & Immigration officialdom seems to be more one of chasing quotas and an attitude of "GOTCHA ILLEGAL!" and not assessment. I can show a one-way travel ticket, but I sincerely doubt that would be taken as proof.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Sand wrote: »
    I've said it before, I don't understand the media fixation with a customs union as regards the Irish border. Unless Northern Ireland, or the UK as a whole, commits to retaining membership of the single market with all that entails then there will be a border that has to be enforced. The UK fixation with a customs union reminds me of their fixation in late 2017 with the amount of the 'divorce' bill. Anything to avoid recognising the real issue: the Irish border. It was the problem in 2017, its the problem in 2018.
    Keeping the border open requires both a customs union and the single market, or something very close to it. I think the signficance of the customs union is that it helps to solve the Irish border problem but, yes, it doesn't solve it on its own.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Thomas__. wrote: »
    I think that one must go back in time to the UK's pre-EEC period, when the CoN had the function of the common market for Import and Export of goods . . .
    Did the common wealth ever really function like that?. . .
    No, never.

    The UK did have a policy of "imperial preference", under which selected goods could be imported from Commonwealth countries free of tariffs, while similar goods from non-Commonwealth countries attracted extra tariffs. But . . .

    (a) This only covered selected goods that the UK wanted.

    (b) It was a series of bilateral deals between the UK and other territories. For example New Zealand lamb and butter benefitted from this, while Canadian lamb and butter might not.

    (c) The Common Market always had a common customs tariff; a US exporter of (say) beer to France suffers the the same tariff as he would if he exported to Ireland or the UK or Italy or any other member state. There was never such an arrangement in the British Empire/Commonwealth.

    (d) The big difference; it was a hub-and-spoke arrangement, not a single common market. By that I mean that New Zealand might have a deal allowing it to import lamb into the UK free of tariffs, and under which the UK imposed punitive tariffs on (say) French lamb. But that didn't mean that New Zealand had any right to import lamb tariff-free to India or Canada or Australia or any other Empire/Commonwealth territory, or that those territories would impose tariffs on non-New Zealand lamb.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    No caveating needed. The "hostile environment" policy targets not illegal immigrants but - as Sand correctly says - undocumented immigrants. The distinction is crucial.
    That is a fair point, as I missed that distinction indeed.

    It is however perverse, as it posits that the U.K. government would wilfully target long-established, integrated contributing members of British society, such as inter alia the Windrush generation, besides ‘properly’ illegals (to call them that).

    Given that new context, then
    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Lookit, many of the Windrush generation lost their legitimate jobs because they couldn't verify their immigration status. Doesn't that fact along tell you that this policy was targetted at people in legitimate jobs?
    no, what that fact tells me, is that this policy was written on the back of a UKIP fag packet, with about as much common sense and due care exercised on its implementation.

    The Tories didn’t filter the populist rethoric, if anything they’ve amplified it.

    Alun: same system in Luxembourg btw (formal registration -heavy on docs/evidence- at local townhall as the first thing to do on arrival, because everything else downstream (tax, health, driving, insurances, utilities, ...) is tied to it and the national number.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    But, ambro, it's perfectly possible to be a "proper" illegal and also a long-established, integrated contributing member of whatever society you're an illegal immigrant in. That is precisely the group addressed by proposed "Dreamer" policies in the US, and why would we expect that there would be no similar group in the UK?

    You, and I suspect the framers of this policy, are appealing to a stereotype in which people who have no legal right to be in the UK work in the black market, live below the radar, etc, etc. While there are some such people, the reality is that the "illegal immigrant" community is much more diverse, and much more integrated with the mainstream community, than the stereotype would suggest. Which is precisely why measure that are conceived with illegal immigrants in mind also tend to impact, often adversely, on citizens and legal migrants; their circumstances are often very similar, and it's very hard to devise measures which are "hostile" to one group, but benevolent to the other.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Sand wrote: »
    I've said it before, I don't understand the media fixation with a customs union as regards the Irish border. Unless Northern Ireland, or the UK as a whole, commits to retaining membership of the single market with all that entails then there will be a border that has to be enforced. The UK fixation with a customs union reminds me of their fixation in late 2017 with the amount of the 'divorce' bill. Anything to avoid recognising the real issue: the Irish border. It was the problem in 2017, its the problem in 2018.

    A customs union does two things. It does remove some of the issues and it ensures that the different arrangements very much still required in NI are more regulatory than anything else. So the checks at Larne are not customs men but vets or food safety inspectors. This is good for optics since vet checks already exist and there is already a rudimentary All Ireland food safety regime.

    The purpose of the hostile environment is to weight on the minds of undocumented migrants in the UK and encourage them to leave. If you were considering them, then its reasonable to presume those who are being targeted by them are also considering them. They are the sort of measures the UK government could have taken decades ago without any EU objection. They deliberately chose not to. The UK government is in its own way demonstrating that the EU is not an impediment to having a policy on migration.

    Unfortunately, you have to think the UK has picked on these elderly people, who are almost all entitled to stay, precisely because it will raise a media campaign and so intimidate others with less of a case.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,919 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Unfortunately, you have to think the UK has picked on these elderly people, who are almost all entitled to stay, precisely because it will raise a media campaign and so intimidate others with less of a case.

    I think the term is collateral damage. Or perhaps racist. I think perhaps both, with a side order of incompetence, ignorance, and deliberate obtuse application of an obviously unjust set of rules.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    But, ambro, it's perfectly possible to be a "proper" illegal and also a long-established, integrated contributing member of whatever society you're an illegal immigrant in. That is precisely the group addressed by proposed "Dreamer" policies in the US, and why would we expect that there would be no similar group in the UK?
    Of course it’s possible, and far from me the notion that it couldn’t or shouldn’t be: the issue at hand here, is not one of sovereign capacity to amend immigration policies as time goes on and circumstances change, it is that such changes have been performed by the U.K. apparently in complete disregard of their multifarious impacts, turning hitherto-legal undocumented immigrants, some of them so for decades on end, into illegal undocumented immigrants overnight.

    Reading between the lines, I gather that you are a legal practitioner, so I’m confident you’re aware of the long-settled principle of legitimate expectations, and it’s relevance in the above context.

    A « Dreamer »-like policy is irrelevant in that respect, save as to the facts that it happens to conform to this principle of legitimate expectations, and that the U.K. government should be looking to replace its hostile environment policy with it, if it had any economic interest in maintaining contributing immigrants, both legal and not, in place to power U.K. plc.

    Beyond all that...I’ve never been a gambling man and, as an EU immigrant in the U.K. (as I was back then), the sum total of these policies and mistakes contributed its own little way -besides other factors- to make the move just as much of a safety measure, as an opportunity chased.

    As I said: a win for May & Rudd no doubt. But a loss to Hammond.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 90 ✭✭Soldah


    UKIP is a portion Fascism or Nazism like new portion in election 2018's AfS its ultra-nationalism of Sweden but review in UKIP it is 1 of 2 kind off ultra-nationalism.
     :blush:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 90 ✭✭Soldah


    joeysoap wrote: »
    Soldah wrote: »
    Ireland is a part of Europe but Brexit have lead the British out from Union but good for all those do vote yes to leave EU the facts is the British politics wanted this for all country for the British best chose now them are like America an own country with interests. 

    No more suffer in posential military conflict in Union. 

    :) 
    :ninja:

    Is English your first language? Just curious.
    Its toughless for telling on Finnish as Native so I tells only Swedish ordinary life! :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,251 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady



    Nigel has plenty of inflammatory rhetoric but no solutions either.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,801 ✭✭✭Enzokk




    What is the endgame for the DUP here? What did they think would happen by deciding to go for Brexit? There were no indications that the UK would be better off outside the EU, Northern Ireland has special circumstances relating to the EU and the border as well. So what was the objective for them?

    They cannot possibly want a border between the UK and the EU as it has been shown it would be catastrophic for NI and Ireland. They don't want a border with the UK either. Did they just want to be contrarian and didn't want to be seen as following SF?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    The DUP want NI to be as 'British' as Britain. Never mind the fact that NI is not part of Britain, never has been and never will be. So many Unionists dont understand thisnsimple point.

    NI, is part of the United Kingdom. It's already different to Britain in a myriad ways - laws, customs etc.

    The EU are offering NI a golden ticket to remain part of the UK, while having a multitude of benefits the rest of the UK want, but can't get. These guys are even more stupid than the Toey government and are going to burn NI to the ground so they can get that warm feeling inside that 'Britain' consider it to be a part of it. They don't, and it isn't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭Unpossible


    Enzokk wrote: »
    What is the endgame for the DUP here? What did they think would happen by deciding to go for Brexit? There were no indications that the UK would be better off outside the EU, Northern Ireland has special circumstances relating to the EU and the border as well. So what was the objective for them?

    They cannot possibly want a border between the UK and the EU as it has been shown it would be catastrophic for NI and Ireland. They don't want a border with the UK either. Did they just want to be contrarian and didn't want to be seen as following SF?
    Someone else mentioned it on here before and I agree. The plan is probably to make a show and "take a stand", bring down the government, have labour come in and agree to NI staying in the CU and SM. Then they get the best of both worlds, membership of CU and SM, but also they get to tell their base that they took action and stood up for their principles.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭jobbridge4life


    Unpossible wrote: »
    Someone else mentioned it on here before and I agree. The plan is probably to make a show and "take a stand", bring down the government, have labour come in and agree to NI staying in the CU and SM. Then they get the best of both worlds, membership of CU and SM, but also they get to tell their base that they took action and stood up for their principles.

    While that is an interesting hypothesis, I don't think any of us can make reliable predictions until the source of the questionable funding that allowed the DUP to take out a massively expensive advertisement campaign in the UK, in areas where they do not compete, is uncovered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭Unpossible


    While that is an interesting hypothesis, I don't think any of us can make reliable predictions until the source of the questionable funding that allowed the DUP to take out a massively expensive advertisement campaign in the UK, in areas where they do not compete, is uncovered.
    True, they might be planning on profitting personally from BREXIT.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    This shower are so untrustworthy!

    "Britain's Brexit secretary David Davis has said that the backstop solution to avoid a hard border will not include anything that will mean different arrangements for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK."

    Attending a hearing of the House of Commons Committee on exiting the EU, Mr Davis said the British government’s position was that when the so-called backstop solution was agreed and inserted into the treaty governing Britain’s departure, it would not require Northern Ireland to be treated any differently.
    "

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/957097/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,801 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Unpossible wrote: »
    Someone else mentioned it on here before and I agree. The plan is probably to make a show and "take a stand", bring down the government, have labour come in and agree to NI staying in the CU and SM. Then they get the best of both worlds, membership of CU and SM, but also they get to tell their base that they took action and stood up for their principles.


    That may be the plan now, but what was the plan before they decided to back leaving the EU? Did they not know how important the trade between Ireland and NI is for both countries? If they didn't, why not? If they did, why did they decide to vote for something that would put this at risk?

    Look, I can understand some of their stance now. They are backed into a corner so tight they will probably be spat out on the other side having lost everything they held dear. They might lose their link to the UK. They may have Jeremy Corbyn in charge who could be more sympathetic to SF and a united Ireland. But anyone with two brain cells could have worked out not rocking the boat would mean the status quo remains. Is there a problem with that for them? I mean its not like Ireland will join the UK, ever, so the best they can hope for is to remain as part of the UK.

    Politicians should have people below them at least to advise them, but it seems like common sense have left everyone at the moment in any political position in the UK. It's baffling to witness.

    Just wondering as well, what would the votes have been had the DUP decided to back remain in NI? It would not have stopped Brexit, but what percentage would have voted Remain if all parties went for the sensible option? Also, even if they did back Remain, after the election Theresa May would have still needed to approach them for a deal to govern, but they could have actually made a difference for their own people instead of spouting threats about wanting something that cannot be given to them.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    This shower are so untrustworthy!

    "Britain's Brexit secretary David Davis has said that the backstop solution to avoid a hard border will not include anything that will mean different arrangements for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK."

    Attending a hearing of the House of Commons Committee on exiting the EU, Mr Davis said the British government’s position was that when the so-called backstop solution was agreed and inserted into the treaty governing Britain’s departure, it would not require Northern Ireland to be treated any differently.
    "

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/957097/

    Quite. No doubt it will not mention NI at all but merely goods entering the UK on a land border.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,071 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Enzokk wrote: »
    That may be the plan now, but what was the plan before they decided to back leaving the EU? Did they not know how important the trade between Ireland and NI is for both countries? If they didn't, why not? If they did, why did they decide to vote for something that would put this at risk?

    Look, I can understand some of their stance now. They are backed into a corner so tight they will probably be spat out on the other side having lost everything they held dear. They might lose their link to the UK. They may have Jeremy Corbyn in charge who could be more sympathetic to SF and a united Ireland. But anyone with two brain cells could have worked out not rocking the boat would mean the status quo remains. Is there a problem with that for them? I mean its not like Ireland will join the UK, ever, so the best they can hope for is to remain as part of the UK.

    Politicians should have people below them at least to advise them, but it seems like common sense have left everyone at the moment in any political position in the UK. It's baffling to witness.

    Just wondering as well, what would the votes have been had the DUP decided to back remain in NI? It would not have stopped Brexit, but what percentage would have voted Remain if all parties went for the sensible option? Also, even if they did back Remain, after the election Theresa May would have still needed to approach them for a deal to govern, but they could have actually made a difference for their own people instead of spouting threats about wanting something that cannot be given to them.

    I imagine they expected to lose the referendum and not need to think about any of this


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭flatty


    I honestly think that the rump of the brexit wing are all a bit dim. This isn't a flippant remark. It is very relevant. I think honestly that they are too thick to nuance anything, too thick to steer any way through this, too thick to be negotiating with the eu, and too thick to realise it.
    Unfortunately, I don't think the lady who sent them is any brighter.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    I feel sorry for the UK civil servants being sent to Brussels with a plan that looks like it was drawn up by General Melchett from Blackadder.

    They are left with the impossible task of trying to make something of what is nothing but a load of populist rhetoric and somehow make that work in reality. I mean these are intelligent, professional people who have worked all their careers on dealing with sane and pragmatic negotiations and they are being expected to now implement absolutely nonsense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,382 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    flatty wrote: »
    I honestly think that the rump of the brexit wing are all a bit dim. This isn't a flippant remark. It is very relevant. I think honestly that they are too thick to nuance anything, too thick to steer any way through this, too thick to be negotiating with the eu, and too thick to realise it.
    Unfortunately, I don't think the lady who sent them is any brighter.

    No. Apart from the odd exception like Davis, they are all from privileged backgrounds. Boris is an old Etonian. Mogg is an old Etonian. May went to grammar school and Oxford as did Gove, Hague and Redmond. It isn't stupidity, it's arrogance.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,919 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell



    How will this affect us since we are not in Shengen?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    How will this affect us since we are not in Shengen?

    It won't as we are EU citizens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Laura Kuenssberg has presumably been alerted by SF to a raft of documents leaked by its Eurogroup:

    http://guengl-brexit.eu/index.php/leaked-documents/


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,640 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Another potential Brexit cost - they are talking about replicating the €13bn GPS system and it's only going to cost £5Bn "tops" :rolleyes:
    Just look at the delays and cost overruns on any government / MoD technology megaprojects to see how likely that is.

    Sunk costs in Galileo are £1.2Bn , and Airbus & Co are moving divisions working on it back to the EU.


    Galileo: UK plan to launch rival to EU sat-nav system
    The UK has spent 1.4bn euros (£1.2bn) on Galileo, which is meant to be Europe's answer to the US GPS system.

    ...
    Graham Turnock, chief executive of the UK Space Agency, said early feasibility work was under way into a UK system, which he said would cost a "lot less" than Galileo, thanks to work already done and "British know-how and ingenuity".

    Asked by the BBC's Science Correspondent Jonathan Amos if it could be as much as £5bn, he said "tops".

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/25/uk_galileo_exit_agreed_in_march/
    Blighty stuffs itself in Galileo airlock and dares Europe to pull the lever

    As toys fly from prams over post-Brexit access to sat system, UK.gov is reminded: You agreed to this


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,640 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Brexit will need a lot outsourcing. It's another high risk area,even if all goes well it will cost a small fortune. If things don't work out then there may be extra costs, delays, lost revenues, fines and so on and so forth.

    The biggest outsourcer isn't as financially stable as you'd like.
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/capita-collapse-would-be-far-messier-carillion
    Yesterday Capita reported a £513 million annual loss, and now the company, one of the Government’s most favoured outsourcing providers, is planning to raise £701 million from shareholders.
    ...
    Capita is a bigger provider of government contracts. Whereas Carillion had around 450 contracts with government, it is likely that Capita has over 1,000 (data via OpenOpps).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Attended a Brexit-themed event tonight held by the British Chamber of Commerce in Luxembourg. The event and discussion panel was finance-biased (what else in Lux, really?) and the panel included very clued-up people, including Brits (asset management & e-payment processors) and a couple with an inside track into the negotiations (eg BIL chairman, ex-Lux FinMin who attended very many EU FinMin meetings during the not-so-distant Greek years).

    The consensus was unequivocal, across the board: Brexit will deffo happen, passporting is deffo going, clearing will suffer most at term, London is haemorraging FinTech startups to Berlin and elsewhere, and there isn't a single fin outfit (trading, asset management, insurance, reinsurance) who isn't already engaged in contingency implementation. London (the City) will survive of course, and remain an important fin nexus...but the global top spot is lost for good, and durably.

    The compaire ran a show-of-hand poll with us about who believed a deal would be reached, and who didn't. The totals were pretty close (I voted no deal, I believe that will happen through accident due to the timescales involved and the political deadlock in the UK).

    Networking around after the talks, I got to speak with the British ambassador in attendance for 15 mins or so. Charming typical Oxbridge type chap, quite personable, so I held back on asking him what it was like working for Boris...might need his help with the British Mrs in times to come, so I played nice :D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    ambro25 wrote: »
    Networking around after the talks, I got to speak with the British ambassador in attendance for 15 mins or so. Charming typical Oxbridge type chap, quite personable, so I held back on asking him what it was like working for Boris...might need his help with the British Mrs in times to come, so I played nice :D

    What was your take on the British ambassador? Was he full-on JRM/Davis/Bojo or was he somewhat sanguine and slightly embarrassed to be there on matters Brexit? i.e. when you get to the coal-face of the people who have to deal day in day out with their EU counterparts have you found many to be towing the insult-everyone-else-be-arrogant-claim-it-will-be-amazeballs line of the current cabinet & the media.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Lemming wrote: »
    What was your take on the British ambassador? Was he full-on JRM/Davis/Bojo or was he somewhat sanguine and slightly embarrassed to be there on matters Brexit? i.e. when you get to the coal-face of the people who have to deal day in day out with their EU counterparts have you found many to be towing the insult-everyone-else-be-arrogant-claim-it-will-be-amazeballs line of the current cabinet & the media.
    Oh, absolutely the second one. And, as expected of a top-flight career Foreign Office type, he was very good at it: you couldn't embarass him professionally in the papers about anything that he said or replied (to me in semi-private conversation), but you got the message about his position about the topic/issue just fine.

    "Consummate professional doing the best of a sh*t sandwich with seconds", would be my take.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Double posted somehow, apologies


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Another potential Brexit cost - they are talking about replicating the €13bn GPS system and it's only going to cost £5Bn "tops" :rolleyes:
    Just look at the delays and cost overruns on any government / MoD technology megaprojects to see how likely that is.

    Sunk costs in Galileo are £1.2Bn , and Airbus & Co are moving divisions working on it back to the EU.


    Galileo: UK plan to launch rival to EU sat-nav system

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/25/uk_galileo_exit_agreed_in_march/
    Does the 5 BN include launch systems too. I'm not familiar with may British rockets . Are they going to ask the Russians, Americans or perhaps Musk?

    Does British overseas territory include a suitable launch site?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭flatty


    flatty wrote: »
    I honestly think that the rump of the brexit wing are all a bit dim. This isn't a flippant remark. It is very relevant. I think honestly that they are too thick to nuance anything, too thick to steer any way through this, too thick to be negotiating with the eu, and too thick to realise it.
    Unfortunately, I don't think the lady who sent them is any brighter.

    No. Apart from the odd exception like Davis, they are all from privileged backgrounds. Boris is an old Etonian. Mogg is an old Etonian. May went to grammar school and Oxford as did Gove, Hague and Redmond. It isn't stupidity, it's arrogance.
    That kind of arrogance can only be arrived at through stupidity. The lack of insight required is exclusive to someone not especially bright.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Just looking through their degrees and qualifications on wikipedia. Mostly just fairly normal 2nd class honours BAs in English, Classics and so on from Oxford etc.

    I could fully understand someone with a classics / languages background who was educated in an elite bubble having little grasp of economic reality.

    However, David Davis has a pretty heavy weight CV in business and does not come from that kind of elite bubble. It's surprising he's not a lot more pragmatic.

    Karen Bradley also stands out as being educated in what seems to be a community school and then going on to do a B.Sc. in Maths in Imperial College.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,661 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    EdgeCase wrote: »

    Karen Bradley also stands out as being educated in what seems to be a community school and then going on to do a B.Sc. in Maths in Imperial College.

    And her reward... gets dispatched to act as a glorified childminder to the clowns in the North.

    She has my sympathies, that is a truly thankless job.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    And her reward... gets dispatched to act as a glorified childminder to the clowns in the North.

    She has my sympathies, that is a truly thankless job.

    Not to mention having both hands tied by the DUP deal that's supporting the UK Government.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No. Apart from the odd exception like Davis, they are all from privileged backgrounds. Boris is an old Etonian. Mogg is an old Etonian. May went to grammar school and Oxford as did Gove, Hague and Redmond. It isn't stupidity, it's arrogance.
    Why would you imagine that because somebody is an old Etonian, or went to a grammar school, they cannot be stupid?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,743 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Does the 5 BN include launch systems too. I'm not familiar with may British rockets . Are they going to ask the Russians, Americans or perhaps Musk?

    Does British overseas territory include a suitable launch site?
    There are several options for having satellites launched commercially (including the ESA itself). You don't need an independent launch capacity in order to put up a satellite array.


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