Brexit discussion thread III

Kermit.de.frog

UK economic growth slows to just 0.1% in Q1.


Eeeek

trellheim

UK economic growth slows to just 0.1% in Q1.

For every economic indicator saying Brexit is stupid another one showing something different will be trotted out.


It is reasonably true to say there are a cohort ( in both Con and Labour ) who believes nothing matters other than crashing out March 2019 - the important part is the deed , the fact of a deal or not is actually far less of a point ("it can always be fixed afterwards", is the mindset, "sure they'll need us")

Why do they do this ? because every time they push hard at the Government, it moves along with them ( see Amber Rudd etc this week )

From the Leave side all they have to do is hang on and concede nothing

Kermit.de.frog

Hard to stand over that growth. In fact per capita it seems highly probable the UK is in fact in recession.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Or actually winning enough votes to actually govern. You have to win first before you can govern, and it seems to me that a lot of the Labour backbenchers who are so opposed to Corbyn likes being in opposition. They were all behind Milliband and see how that turned out for the party.

There were behind the wrong Miliband. Despite May's ineptitude and the incessant and vicious civil war within the Tory party, Labour continues to fail in overtaking the Tories in the polls. Corbyn's popularity with voters has sunk further and is now 12% behind May.

Sure, some of Corbyn's policies are fundamentally sound but others are pure fantasy. Doesn't matter whether you're for or against Corbyn, he's not what the voters want. A more centrist leader would have made the Labour party more electable. Because Labour is not maximising its opportunity, it will be more likely that Britain will have yet another Tory government by default.

flatty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sure. But I don't need to take either a Corbynite or an anti-Corbynite position myself to observe that a Corbynite leader of an anti-Corbynite parliamentary party is, um, going to find it difficult to be an effective leader.

The alternative is to appoint a Blairite as leader. They might be very effective at leading the Parliamentary party and even at governing the country just as Blair was, but utterly ineffective at implementing Labours policies and ideals such as not killing tens of thousands of innocent people.

In fairness, I have a pal who moves in those circles. I wondered how tb managed to pull the wool over the eyes of so many people. His take was that, by and large, Labour Party members are decent people who just didn't see tb, who in my pal's mind is a genuine psychopath, coming.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Tory party is just astonishingly badly led, deeply divided, utterly dysfunctional and its handling of Brexit, the biggest issue facing the UK for generation, for the past four years has been a shambolic parade of ineptitude, incompetence, misjudgment, dishonesty and folly.

...but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

:pac::pac::pac:

flatty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Or actually winning enough votes to actually govern. You have to win first before you can govern, and it seems to me that a lot of the Labour backbenchers who are so opposed to Corbyn likes being in opposition. They were all behind Milliband and see how that turned out for the party.

There were behind the wrong Miliband. Despite May's ineptitude and the incessant and vicious civil war within the Tory party, Labour continues to fail in overtaking the Tories in the polls. Corbyn's popularity with voters has sunk further and is now 12% behind May.

Sure, some of Corbyn's policies are fundamentally sound but others are pure fantasy. Doesn't matter whether you're for or against Corbyn, he's not what the voters want. A more centrist leader would have made the Labour party more electable. Because Labour is not maximising its opportunity, it will be more likely that Britain will have yet another Tory government by default.

Corbyn doesn't even need to go tbh. He needs a more pragmatic and business centred shadow chancellor. Its mcdonald who puts the fear of God into most business people.

Charles Babbage

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK economic growth slows to just 0.1% in Q1.


Eeeek

Ireland grows by 0.1% each week.

Professor Moriarty

flatty wrote: »

Corbyn doesn't even need to go tbh. He needs a more pragmatic and business centred shadow chancellor. Its mcdonald who puts the fear of God into most business people.

I dunno. Corbyn's political beliefs and his demeanour simply don't attract anywhere near enough voters. Personally, I do think he needs to go and a more charismatic, pragmatic and centrist politician needs to lead Labour into the next election. Otherwise, the incompetent and fantasist Tory party will get in yet again.

Larbre34

Wages are outstripping inflation, which itself is unsustainably high and now the Bank of England is unlikely to be able to raise interest rates to tackle it, as flagged, because of these GDP issues.

And of course the Remain side will be accused of continuing Project Fear if they run with this, while the Brexit shills dont really care about fundamentals so long as their own brand of zionism isnt derailed

They really are fecked.

joeysoap

Watched two programmers on BBC last night. First one was the 5 candidates in the west Tyrone by election. THB , bar one they were poor , none so than the SF candidate who will probably skate home. When the UUP candidate was asked about leaving the CU etc he said his preferred option was a ‘comprehensive’ trade deal between the ROI and Uk. You couldn’t make it up. And none of the others picked up on it.

Second was QT, and Brexit was limited to the last 10 minutes. And for the first time I can recall, members of the audience brought up NI. 2 or 3 of them said that nobody mentioned Northern Ireland in the referendum, or leaving the CU. Typically when the Green Party lady said there should be a vote after the negotiations she was loudly booed.

flatty

Important to emphasise again that QT audience are a slightly upmarket version of the Jeremy Kyle show.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There were behind the wrong Miliband.

Absolutely this. I have no love for David, but he was a damn sight better than Ed. Ed is an odious, snivelling creature. I can't believe that he was chosen after stabbing his brother in the back. You can get away with anything over there it seems.

Zubeneschamali

J Mysterio wrote: »

Absolutely this. I have no love for David, but he was a damn sight better than Ed. Ed is an odious, snivelling creature. I can't believe that he was chosen after stabbing his brother in the back. You can get away with anything over there it seems.

Both Millibands are Oxford/Harvard/MIT Blairite rich boys pretending to care about the working classes.

Larbre34

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Both Millibands are Oxford/Harvard/MIT Blairite rich boys pretending to care about the working classes.

But one of them had half a clue and senior cabinet experience.

Like it or not, thats needed, as we have seen with Corbyn and the Cuckoo's Nest shadow cabinet. I mean watching Diane Abbott in action the last few days actually made me thankful for Mary Lou McDonald and thats twilight zone stuff for me.

joeysoap

Larbre34 wrote: »

But one of them had half a clue and senior cabinet experience.

Like it or not, thats needed, as we have seen with Corbyn and the Cuckoo's Nest shadow cabinet. I mean watching Diane Abbott in action the last few days actually made me thankful for Mary Lou McDonald and thats twilight zone stuff for me.

Diane Abbott was awful on QT last night. You definitely wouldn’t want her as Home Secretary.

BonnieSituation

flatty wrote: »

In fairness, I have a pal who moves in those circles. I wondered how tb managed to pull the wool over the eyes of so many people. His take was that, by and large, Labour Party members are decent people who just didn't see tb, who in my pal's mind is a genuine psychopath, coming.

You have to remember that Labour had a rather wonderful leader in John Smith whose death enabled Blair to swoop in and pivot the party while the grieving process was still ongoing.

Like, the Tallaght Strategy, and WWI's effect on the passage of the home rule bill we'll never know how much things might have been better under Smith.

In fact I believe the decimation of Major's Cons in 97, which would only have happened under New Labour due to it "centring" enabled the so-called as JM called them, "bast@rds" that hounded him like Redwood, to stick around and give us the last decade.

A "normal" victory by a leftist Smith Labour in 97 would have kept the Tories slightly more sane; a what might have been indeed.

EdgeCase

My view of it is that both major parties have lost the plot entirely. There's a dysfunctional government and an equally dysfunctional opposition.

BonnieSituation

EdgeCase wrote: »

My view of it is that both major parties have lost the plot entirely. There's a dysfunctional government and an equally dysfunctional opposition.

Meanwhile, the liberal democrats...

---

When you think about what we went through over the last 10 years, coupled with what happened in the 2002 election and what followed as a result, how the party's are handling things generally re Brexit, we are for once "lucky".

Capt'n Midnight

Larbre34 wrote: »

I hope it happens, it'll trigger the departure of moderate tories and the creation of the new centrist party in the UK.

yeah, but no.

There is already a centrist party , the Lib Dems who go back the the 17th century combined moderator ex-Labour.

But compare the Greens, UKIP or even the LibDems to parties like SNP , DUP, SF for seats per vote.

First Past The Post means you get nothing if your vote is spread out. And Brexit is divisive so you probably won't get all your previous votes if you are running against the party and party line.

Capt'n Midnight

Larbre34 wrote: »

Wages are outstripping inflation, which itself is unsustainably high and now the Bank of England is unlikely to be able to raise interest rates to tackle it, as flagged, because of these GDP issues.

Real wages are not outstripping inflation. Even if they were it's going to be some time before they clawback the price increases, and inflation and further costs won't help.

Blue graphs are adjusted for Consumer Price Index. - Flat.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/latest

Strazdas

EdgeCase wrote: »

My view of it is that both major parties have lost the plot entirely. There's a dysfunctional government and an equally dysfunctional opposition.

Dysfunctional public too. It's as if the entire country has gone temporarily insane over this Brexit malarkey (perhaps it's a symptom of something that was brewing for years in the UK and Brexit is only the outward manifestation of it).

BonnieSituation

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

yeah, but no.

There is already a centrist party , the Lib Dems who go back the the 17th century combined moderator ex-Labour.

But compare the Greens, UKIP or even the LibDems to parties like SNP , DUP, SF for seats per vote.

First Past The Post means you get nothing if your vote is spread out. And Brexit is divisive so you probably won't get all your previous votes if you are running against the party and party line.

I literally have just had a conversation about referenda and the lack thereof in the UK (whole) and how things might have been different if AV was carried in 2011.

The other party did not recall despite being in Mancunia at the time. The lack of political engagement at such a low level in Britain always flummoxes me.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Dysfunctional public too. It's as if the entire country has gone temporarily insane over this Brexit malarkey

I think it is the opposite. The entire country is sane - so sensible that they cannot accept that they did something mad.

They think Brexit must be sensible because sensible people like them would not do anything completely insane.

And yet, here we are.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is the opposite. The entire country is sane - so sensible that they cannot accept that they did something mad.

They think Brexit must be sensible because sensible people like them would not do anything completely insane.

And yet, here we are.

I think most countries around Europe who found themselves in the Brexit situation would be able to extricate themselves from it relatively easily i.e. a second referendum, the government saying it would not be in the national interest to implement it or some other formula from the govt / parliament to solve the problem.

The Brits have gotten themselves into a terrible bind though, especially with this 'will of the people' narrative and the idea that the result must be implemented no matter what the consequences and that it would be profoundly 'undemocratic' and a 'betrayal' to do anything other than implement the result.

Looking in from the outside, it seems bonkers that a country would get itself into such an almighty mess over what is little more than a glorified opinion poll. That nut Cameron was playing with fire by ever going near the idea of a referendum, as it's clear the British don't know how to do referendums or handle the fall out from them.

flatty

Strazdas wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is the opposite. The entire country is sane - so sensible that they cannot accept that they did something mad.

They think Brexit must be sensible because sensible people like them would not do anything completely insane.

And yet, here we are.

I think most countries around Europe who found themselves in the Brexit situation would be able to extricate themselves from it relatively easily i.e. a second referendum, the government saying it would not be in the national interest to implement it or some other formula from the govt / parliament to solve the problem.

The Brits have gotten themselves into a terrible bind though, especially with this 'will of the people' narrative and the idea that the result must be implemented no matter what the consequences and that it would be profoundly 'undemocratic' and a 'betrayal' to do anything other than implement the result.

Looking in from the outside, it seems bonkers that a country would get itself into such an almighty mess over what is little more than a glorified opinion poll. That nut Cameron was playing with fire by ever going near the idea of a referendum, as it's clear the British don't know how to do referendums or handle the fall out from them.

Most countries in Europe are run by politicians who, in the main, want to do their best for the country. The UK is currently run by people who are interested only in inflicting their personal dogma. Sin e e unfortunately. They will not be remembered well.

Jim2007

briany wrote: »

 
What exactly are the political pundits suggesting the UK is going to say to the EU/Ireland/Northern Ireland, come the deadline date?

It is not actually very difficult to understand:  They are hoping that what is on offer in other areas will be enough to split the 27 and they'll get something close to what they want in the end.  All the while the negotiations are going on in Brussels, UK ministers and diplomats are visiting the capitals of Europe hoping to create that split. 
But as an Italian work mate of mine says:  The real problem with the British is that they don't understand that when a European says 'No', they really mean 'No' and not 'Maybe I'm open to persuasion' ...

Unpossible

Jim2007 wrote: »

It is not actually very difficult to understand:  They are hoping that what is on offer in other areas will be enough to split the 27 and they'll get something close to what they want in the end.  All the while the negotiations are going on in Brussels, UK ministers and diplomats are visiting the capitals of Europe hoping to create that split. 
But as an Italian work mate of mine says:  The real problem with the British is that they don't understand that when a European says 'No', they really mean 'No' and not 'Maybe I'm open to persuasion' ...

Isn't that dangerous for the UK? If the EU is split then there will be no agreement and the UK will crash out.
Or are they hoping that this is a giant game of chicken and the EU will blink and give in when the deadlines are close?

Zubeneschamali

Unpossible wrote: »

Or are they hoping that this is a giant game of chicken and the EU will blink

No, the UK government intend to give in, but if they gave in now the brexiteer Tories would cause all sorts of trouble. So they will "negotiate" until the last minute and then give in when it is too late for the brexiteers to replace May or renegotiate anything.

steddyeddy

Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:

Leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg is calling on Theresa May to "call the EU's bluff" and cripple Ireland in retaliation to delays in a border deal being struck.
"If Britain trades on WTO terms, we could potentially slap tariffs of up to 70 per cent on Irish beef.

English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:



English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.

It's par for the course for Jacob. It's not the first time he's threatened Ireland if Britain doesn't get its way with the EU. It's his elitist Little Englander arrogance shining through - briseann an dúchas trí shúile an chait. Or, perhaps even more apt, what would you expect from a pig but a grunt?

ancapailldorcha

It's not just senseless, it betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the EU actually works. Does he think that such a tariff would not be met with reprisals from Brussels? Does he not think that corporations in Brussels are not using lobbying the EU to try and put UK firms at a disadvantage?

Anyway, the tabloids are now up in arms about a €7 EU visa fee. Seems that this is being misrepresented according to this link:

Etias, which is modelled on the US visa-waiver system, is designed to increase border security in times of mass migration and a heightened terrorist threat.

Visitors to the EU, including from the US, will have to file an online application, which will be cross-checked against EU states' crime databases and those of Interpol, the international police agency.

Most will get a travel permit "automatically and quickly" and the €7 fee will keep them covered for three years.

The sad thing is that there are a lot of people who'll only start to reconsider Brexit once their pocket takes a hit.

flatty

I've long thought this. There are plenty of idiots who voted for brexit who will be surprised and upset when they are paying three pounds a minute to phone home, and two grand to download an episode of lost again.
Too late it will be.
Other than the relatively few talentless politicians parked there on big wages, I cannot think of much that the eu has done that is bad.

flatty

Best case scenario really would be that the UK cave on the customs union and single market, sit in semi isolation until this wave of arrogant bigots have moved on, and the younger generations move to rejoining with full integration.
Twenty or thirty years I'd say.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's par for the course for Jacob. It's not the first time he's threatened Ireland if Britain doesn't get its way with the EU. It's his elitist Little Englander arrogance shining through - briseann an dúchas trí shúile an chait. Or, perhaps even more apt, what would you expect from a pig but a grunt?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not just senseless, it betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the EU actually works. Does he think that such a tariff would not be met with reprisals from Brussels? Does he not think that corporations in Brussels are not using lobbying the EU to try and put UK firms at a disadvantage?

But they were promising cheaper food prices due to Brexit, because they could get cheap beef in from Brazil/other countries. But if you charge the beef from Ireland a 70% tariff, then you have to do the same to all other countries, right? That is the essence of most favoured nation clause. Unless he thinks they will be able to get a trade deal with Brazil/Argentina/AN Other country done to get the cheap beef in to the UK.

If he thinks he can bully the EU and not get the same back in return he truly is stuck in the past. If the UK puts a 70% tariff on EU beef then it would surely mean the EU would be leaning on any potential trade partners the UK may be negotiating with. I mean all's fair if the UK starts with punitive tariffs to harm the EU in my opinion.

Call me Al

I think JRM most likely knows exactly what he says isn't realistic. But that doesn't matter to him. He's said it. A certain minority of the Brexit audience are hearing it and loving him for saying it.
Do you remember that C4 Brexit loving red hat lady from last November? The lady who believed that the Irish had lost?
Her quote:
“the Irish are just making trouble because they lost. It’s a bit petty isn’t it, really? Yeah, the ‘Southern Irish’ just have to lump it basically. You can’t always have what you want in life.”

This is who this disgusting rhetoric is for. The ones who aren't the sharpest tools in the box but whose breathtaking arrogance make up for it.

Zubeneschamali

Call me Al wrote: »

I think JRM most likely knows exactly what he says isn't realistic.

That's precisely how the UK landed in this mess: people making up crap to pass blame onto the EU. The people doing it knew it was made up (since they made it up), the press knew it was made up, but printed it because it suited their agenda, and 30 years later a whole generation of UK voters thinks the EU is about straight bananas and stealing Britannia's sweet chariot.

Lemming

JRM can scream all the obscenity that he likes because he is a back-bencher and will rarely, if ever, be called to account for what he has said. And and he knows it. This is also why the media laps him up; he's Farage mk.II and panders to all sorts of nationalism & bigotry.

That doesn't mean he isn 't dangerous because as I have said earlier, I suspect he's quite content where he is sat because he wont be called to account for his words in Parliament, and if some of his more 'colourful' notions see the light of day, he knows that someone else will take the heat for something he wanted done. Best of both worlds as far has he's concerned.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

JRM can scream all the obscenity that he likes because he is a back-bencher and will rarely, if ever, be called to account for what he has said. And and he knows it. This is also why the media laps him up; he's Farage mk.II and panders to all sorts of nationalism & bigotry.

That doesn't mean he isn 't dangerous because as I have said earlier, I suspect he's quite content where he is sat because he wont be called to account for his words in Parliament, and if some of his more 'colourful' notions see the light of day, he knows that someone else will take the heat for something he wanted done. Best of both worlds as far has he's concerned.

It's not just that he's unaccountable. His extremist views which are anathema to British values are dragging the overton window in an ever more rightward and increasingly authoritarian direction. By not being accountable, he can say what he wants and his following both on Twitter, in the Conservative party and in the ERG will take it seriously. When you consider the disastrous, fractious state British politics is in, I can see him becoming PM unless he is smart enough to discard such a poisoned chalice and remain ideologically pure.

EdgeCase

Enzokk wrote: »

But they were promising cheaper food prices due to Brexit, because they could get cheap beef in from Brazil/other countries. But if you charge the beef from Ireland a 70% tariff, then you have to do the same to all other countries, right? That is the essence of most favoured nation clause. Unless he thinks they will be able to get a trade deal with Brazil/Argentina/AN Other country done to get the cheap beef in to the UK.

If he thinks he can bully the EU and not get the same back in return he truly is stuck in the past. If the UK puts a 70% tariff on EU beef then it would surely mean the EU would be leaning on any potential trade partners the UK may be negotiating with. I mean all's fair if the UK starts with punitive tariffs to harm the EU in my opinion.

You can't simply tarrif Irish beef. You'd be tarrifing ALL EU beef.
The EU would simply respond by tarrifing some significant UK export with similar rates.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

The EU would simply respond by tarrifing some significant UK export with similar rates.

"Now you see the violence inherent in the system!
Help! Help! I'm being repressed!"

Capt'n Midnight

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:



English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.

To put that in context :


During the whole of 2017, just over half of UK exports went to either Ireland or the Netherlands.

EdgeCase

At this stage they're going to have to cause a recession before they understand how stupid what they are doing is. It's not even about the EU, it's about creating total unpredictability and refusing point blank to look at any kind of sensible solutions to the situation.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

At this stage they're going to have to cause a recession before they understand how stupid what they are doing is.

With growth down to 0.1%, they are practically there already, and the news has not mentioned it. I'm sure the BBC are expecting a prolonged recession and will put a brave face on it.

EdgeCase

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

With growth down to 0.1%, they are practically there already, and the news has not mentioned it. I'm sure the BBC are expecting a prolonged recession and will put a brave face on it.

Oh don't worry they'll have "Keep Calm and Carry On" posters up and will blame the EU for absolutely everything, particularly not just giving them access to everything without adhering to any rules of market access.

An Ciarraioch

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not just that he's unaccountable. His extremist views which are anathema to British values are dragging the overton window in an ever more rightward and increasingly authoritarian direction. By not being accountable, he can say what he wants and his following both on Twitter, in the Conservative party and in the ERG will take it seriously. When you consider the disastrous, fractious state British politics is in, I can see him becoming PM unless he is smart enough to discard such a poisoned chalice and remain ideologically pure.

An interview he did with Radio Four, aged 12 - talks about owning shares in GEC, and aiming to run the company by the time he's 30!

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/989804159896604677

Jim2007

If the UK exits without an agreement, then under WTO terms they will be forced to impose tariffs on all imported foods, adding about 22% to the cost for UK consumers.  Failure to comply with WTO terms will mean that current WTO members will be unable to enter into trade negotiations with them.  
At some point in the next 12 to 18 months, some politician is going to have to bring home the bad news... It will be very interesting to see who is going to do it and who they'll blame - the EU, the WTO or remainers...

An Ciarraioch

The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html#commentsDiv

trellheim

"The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

sounds just like what Cameron was offered

Hurrache

Get yer'selves a cuppa and enjoy Tony Connelly's excellent analysis of the current situation with Brexit and the border in the waring UK government, which if you were to sum up in 3 words, time wasting spoofers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0427/958793-brexit-breaking-point/

And for all their huffing and puffing about there being simple technological solutions available to resolve it...
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989781149386989568?s=19

Just last month, Mr Davis stated that “a whole load of new technology” exists to prevent the need for physical checks and controls at the border.


But in response to a freedom of information request submitted by i, officials at the Department for Exiting the European Union admitted the number of companies it had spoken to about such technology was “nil”.