Brexit discussion thread III

Panrich

The wagons are beginning to circle in Westminster. The Pro EU side are becoming emboldened by the Government defeats in the Lords while the Brexit camp are beginning to look at number 10 in a more critical manner (especially EU advisor Olly Robbins).

Things are coming to a head where something is going to have to be resolved soon regarding the official position:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/mayday-how-theresa-may-has-been-trapped-by-her-enemies-and-her-friends/

Leroy42

Panrich wrote: »

Things are coming to a head where something is going to have to be resolved soon regarding the official position:

The fact that this is even a thing, 11 months before they leave, nearly two months since the ref, 3 years since a ref was put in the Tory manifesto and voted on in the GE, is truly staggering.

It shows the lie that the whole "we can't debate in parliament as it would give our hand away at negotiation" line is total rubbish. They are in no position to debate since they don't even have a position.

Far from the EU and Ireland trying to boss the UK, it is clear that both have been extremely diplomatic and considerate throughout the whole process. It must be massively frustrating to have to deal with such incompetent peoples, especially when the matters at hand are so important.

For Ireland in particular, this really could have damaging and ling lasting effects on the whole country and to be faced with the UK not even knowing, this far down the line, what it is they want, never mind how they plan to actually deliver it, it staggering.

Danzy

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yeah a Thatcherite and a massive Ayn Rand fan which probably gives a clue about his leanings.

It was widely expected he would back leave, but backed remain which a lot of people believed wasn't a change of heart due to realising remain was the sensible choice, but more due to the fact he did not want to be on the losing side. Career politician personified.

Ayn Rand was very much for liberal migration and open borders, as one would expect given her radical right,free market fanatical views.

Bizarrely the Left today are just as Libertarian in this regard even though it makes a mockery of even the idea of a mild Social State nevermind a Socialist one.

Javid will be aware his views on migration are a minority one, so he'll continue towards a more strict approach.

Diane Abbott's position will frighten a lot of voters especially working class ones.

Danzy

Enzokk wrote: »

The government defeated a vote to release documents from 2010 on the Windrush scandal that was brought by Labour. Theresa May demanded a 3 line whip to defeat the vote. This is why those Tory rebels are all hot air in my view. They can say they will not vote for Brexit, but when push comes to shove the Tories will look after the Tories.

Labour motion to see Windrush documents defeated in Commons

While Corbyn is one of the most ideologically opposed to the EU in Westmin,his party is not.

May will point out that rebelling against her means Labour in power.

Lose big or lose small is the choice she gives her rebels.

Sam Russell

Danzy wrote: »

While Corbyn is one of the most ideologically opposed to the EU in Westmin,his party is not.

May will point out that rebelling against her means Labour in power.

Lose big or lose small is the choice she gives her rebels.

Of course it depends on which is which - Lose big and leave the EU - Lose big and get PM Corbyn.

It depends on local council elections in the Tory heart lands. A massive loss of seats and control of councils might tip the balance and May God go with her.

EdgeCase

The worrying bit is the Tories are still polling quite well against labour, and I suspect that's largely down to Corbyn.

He's like Marmite, people either love him or really dislike him. I think he's rallying the left but losing the centre.

The fact that Labour is effectively taking a pro Brexit stance has also driven a lot of people away. I'm seeing plenty of examples of people who'd normally vote labour who are going to vote Lib Dem or some who are just not going to vote at all and gave become a bit dissilutioned due to Brexit. I know it's only anecdotal and based on people I know and that there's a selection bias in that, but it still seems to me that he's not really creating the kind of positive, main stream opposition you'd expect at this stage.

It's reminding me of the Democrats in the US, managing to somehow lose to awful republican candidates by running opposition campaigns that fail to capture the imagination of the public. The Democrats tend to be over corporate and safe, Labour has managed to do it both by selecting a leader who is dividing opinion.

An Ciarraioch

West Tyrone by-election today, the ultimate outcome's a foregone conclusion, so the only points of interest will be the internal unionist tussle, whether the SDLP vote continues to slide, and whether Alliance can gain sufficient votes to be competitive for a council seat next year.

LuckyLloyd

EdgeCase wrote: »

The worrying bit is the Tories are still polling quite well against labour, and I suspect that's largely down to Corbyn.

He's like Marmite, people either love him or really dislike him. I think he's rallying the left but losing the centre.

The fact that Labour is effectively taking a pro Brexit stance has also driven a lot of people away. I'm seeing plenty of examples of people who'd normally vote labour who are going to vote Lib Dem or some who are just not going to vote at all and gave become a bit dissilutioned due to Brexit. I know it's only anecdotal and based on people I know and that there's a selection bias in that, but it still seems to me that he's not really creating the kind of positive, main stream opposition you'd expect at this stage.

It's reminding me of the Democrats in the US, managing to somehow lose to awful republican candidates by running opposition campaigns that fail to capture the imagination of the public. The Democrats tend to be over corporate and safe, Labour has managed to do it both by selecting a leader who is dividing opinion.

I think though it is important to bear in mind that Brexit is not the only political issue in town across the UK. Savage austerity is continuing and will probably need to continue given their slowing growth. They've never come out of recession in a way that improves the effects on the lowest paid sectors of society. As noted in this thread, the 'McJob' trend keeps employment numbers looking good; the way in which they're managing welfare is keeping claims down but the actual affect on the poor is horrendous. Meanwhile the NHS is creaking at the seams. This all fed Brexit: my life is terrible so surely a big change can't hurt? It also feeds Corbyn's control of the Labour party: in order to push back on a war against the poor we need to advocate aggressively for a more socialist bent on society. The Conservatives have radicalized the political situation through moving substantially to the right. In that context, Blairism is a hard sell.

It is also important to question the merits of polling in this situation. His polling performance drastically underestimated his election results last time out. The media have gone right back to bashing him at every opportunity, the anti semitism nonsense is an example of that. It plays well in polling but in an actual general election campaign where he's unleashed? I'm not so sure.

And in a general election context, Labour fighting the campaign on austerity and domestic issues is probably the correct strategy. Their base and their party is as entirely divided on the machinations of Brexit as the Conservatives. I don't believe really that they would lost support because of that as ultimately the Conservatives aren't a ying to yang on that topic. Where Labour differ is what they should fight any election campaign on. And where they differ is in their attitude to the poor and vulnerable in society.

EdgeCase

There's a huge issue over there with 'the media' and by that I mean a section of the tabloid media really, acting as serious political player rather than just a commentator.

Ireland's never really developed that kind of blatantly political paper culture, probably largely due to the size of the market rather than any kind of philosophical difference in the media ownership. If you take a media outlet here too narrow, you'd risk loss of advertisers as the niche would be too small. That's largely kept Irish papers all mainstream. Whereas, in the UK they mostly go straight after niches and end up preaching to their own bubbles of the converted.

flatty

EdgeCase wrote: »

The worrying bit is the Tories are still polling quite well against labour, and I suspect that's largely down to Corbyn.

He's like Marmite, people either love him or really dislike him. I think he's rallying the left but losing the centre.

The fact that Labour is effectively taking a pro Brexit stance has also driven a lot of people away. I'm seeing plenty of examples of people who'd normally vote labour who are going to vote Lib Dem or some who are just not going to vote at all and gave become a bit dissilutioned due to Brexit. I know it's only anecdotal and based on people I know and that there's a selection bias in that, but it still seems to me that he's not really creating the kind of positive, main stream opposition you'd expect at this stage.

It's reminding me of the Democrats in the US, managing to somehow lose to awful republican candidates by running opposition campaigns that fail to capture the imagination of the public. The Democrats tend to be over corporate and safe, Labour has managed to do it both by selecting a leader who is dividing opinion.

I'd agree with this anecdotally. There is a huge suspicioun of corbyn amongst the mainly middle class people that I speak to.

An Ciarraioch

Peter Foster thread essentially re-iterates that neither UK customs proposal will fly, but intriguingly, also states that the DUP would be prepared to stomach a pan-UK CU solution:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/991728367039926273

An Ciarraioch

He also links to this superb Ian Dunt blog, analysing the CU, customs partnership, and "max-fac" - "The first shows Brexit is pointless, the second is insane, and the third impossible":

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/05/02/brexiters-bicker-pointlessly-with-themselves-as-the-project

BonnieSituation

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's a huge issue over there with 'the media' and by that I mean a section of the tabloid media really, acting as serious political player rather than just a commentator.

Ireland's never really developed that kind of blatantly political paper culture, probably largely due to the size of the market rather than any kind of philosophical difference in the media ownership. If you take a media outlet here too narrow, you'd risk loss of advertisers as the niche would be too small. That's largely kept Irish papers all mainstream. Whereas, in the UK they mostly go straight after niches and end up preaching to their own bubbles of the converted.

Defintely over the last 2 decades you could say that.

But the political leanings of the Indo (Ignoring its odious founder for now) (FG), The Press (FF) and the Irish times (Anglo-Irish/Unionist) are well-known.

The Indo's flip in 1997 to FF/PD was a big FU to the Rainbow Co, but the Press' demise I'm sure had a part to play in mainstreaming it as well.

Anyway, you're right to an extent that our small market enables any political leanings to be a tad more "mild" than they would otherwise be.

J Mysterio

Panrich wrote: »

The wagons are beginning to circle in Westminster. The Pro EU side are becoming emboldened by the Government defeats in the Lords while the Brexit camp are beginning to look at number 10 in a more critical manner (especially EU advisor Olly Robbins).

Things are coming to a head where something is going to have to be resolved soon regarding the official position:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/mayday-how-theresa-may-has-been-trapped-by-her-enemies-and-her-friends/

Very good article for the most part. Final paragraph a bit iffy though.

Gerry T

Just a question, but does the UK services, and in particular their financial service industry get their financial passporting by being members of the CU or the SM or is it both ?

First Up

Gerry T wrote: »

Just a question, but does the UK services, and in particular their financial service industry get their financial passporting by being members of the CU or the SM or is it both ?

SM

An Ciarraioch

Politico suggest a solution is required within a week to be presentable in June:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-theresa-mays-existential-customs-crisis/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

trellheim

to no'one's surprise. Its a dead cinch why Barnier and Davis came to NI in the last couple of weeks. I wonder if Sabine Weyand and/or Olly Robbins have come as well, seeing as they are doing the majordomo roles.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Politico suggest a solution is required within a week to be presentable in June:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-theresa-mays-existential-customs-crisis/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

It's a good article. The pressure seems greater than ever before, and May finds herself backed into a corner of her own making. What will she do? She finally needs to make a decision, to actually lead, but there are no good options now The UK under May, Davis et all have seemingly tried to bluff their way to a deal, but that's been called and they have a very poor hand now. It's going to end in disaster.

Kermit.de.frog

Irish diplomacy has clearly been quite impressive getting this to the top of the agenda in Brussels.

https://twitter.com/CorePoliticsTV/status/992101969958457345


My one concern is what will the price be for this solidarity long term?

An Ciarraioch

Unionists and NI political commentators appear paranoid that Dublin has designs on joint authority by the back door, even though the backstop would confer no extra rights on us than are already present in the GFA:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/05/03/fears-of-joint-authority-surface-as-the-the-lords-approve-no-border-checks-without-dublin-consent/

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Unionists and NI political commentators appear paranoid that Dublin has designs on joint authority by the back door, even though the backstop would confer no extra rights on us than are already present in the GFA:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/05/03/fears-of-joint-authority-surface-as-the-the-lords-approve-no-border-checks-without-dublin-consent/

The appearance of paranoia is the default stance for unionism really.

Enzokk

Back to the customs arrangements that the UK wants. Here is an tweet that explains it, as I think we already know but the UK seems to want to fight.

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/992044307904389120


Someone will feel aggrieved, whether it be the DUP, Ireland or Brexiteers.

Dont be at yourself

Enzokk wrote: »

Back to the customs arrangements that the UK wants. Here is an tweet that explains it, as I think we already know but the UK seems to want to fight.

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/992044307904389120


Someone will feel aggrieved, whether it be the DUP, Ireland or Brexiteers.

Really shows what a misstep it was by May calling and not contesting that election was. DUP’s power complicating things no end.

Enzokk

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Really shows what a misstep it was by May calling and not contesting that election was. DUP’s power complicating things no end.

Which election? The 2017 General Election? The thought is she wanted a bigger majority to push through her agenda, what confuses me is what is her Brexit agenda? She never really stated it even though she campaigned for Remain (a reluctant Remainer much like Corbyn, we know she is opposed to the ECHR and seems to conflate that with the EU). So did she want a bigger majority to quieten the 60 or so MPs that are for a hard Brexit? Or did she want to push through a hard Brexit and quiten the 10-15 Tory rebels that want a soft Brexit?

On Labour and polling, I see it has been suggested that one of the reasons they were able to drastically increase their vote is that the media has to follow guidelines when there is a general election and this means that Labour is able to get their message out to people more easily than now. That is a convenient excuse to explain why they are polling so badly right now. It also makes sense when you see the reporting that happens with Corbyn and Brexit.

If we look back Labour were polling at 25% when the election was called and there was 2 Terror attacks in the time between then and the election as well. You would have expected that to favour the Conservatives over the pacifist Corbyn who they wanted to portray as soft on terrorism and still the result was close. With a more robust drive for new voters and more young people available to vote as the older people die off I understand why there would be a reluctance for backbenchers to agitate for a new leader which could mean a new election.

Rjd2

Labour are not polling that awfully to be fair. They are ahead in some polls and not far behind in others.

I think May just looked at the polls before last election and thought Corbyn was there to be smashed. More MPS and Brexit would be less hassle. David Davis was meant to be one of the main people pushing her for it.

However they did not factor in the polls May was dominating in were very soft as she had never been tested with the public. Once Theresa went on the election road she was a disaster. You had Spectator and Telegraph journalists mocking her and they were right to ffs.

The terror attacks were interesting in that they did not really do the right wing party any favours. Reasons?

Jez to his credit touched on a lot of things, e,g the stupid war in Iraq was always going to lead to horrific attacks in Europe and to his credit he had opposed it. He also was able to punish the tories on police cuts also. The Iraq war in 2016 wasn't just considered a huge act of folly by left, many on the right loathed it. Then of course there was the disgusting relationship The Tories have with the savage Saudis which also got more exposure after the attacks something the Tories did not want.

Jez was also to able to play both sides, leavers did not feel threatened that he would impact Brexit while remainers voted for him as there saviour hoping he would over turn it.:P

Jez no matter what you think of him played an absolute blinder.

I do think he will win the next election also, only way he doesn't if The Tories pick Davidson who would hammer from the centre. However if The Tories run to the right of the party God help them.

Kermit.de.frog

The Times reporting tomorrow that Ireland has the backing of the EU to veto the Brexit trade talks next month.

They say the EU has told the UK they will be suspending all talks until the customs issue is resolved.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Times reporting tomorrow that Ireland has the backing of the EU to veto the Brexit trade talks next month.

They say the EU has told the UK they will be suspending all talks until the customs issue is resolved.

Here's the link to that story:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-backs-irish-right-to-veto-brexit-trade-deal-2qhwf3z6t

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Irish diplomacy has clearly been quite impressive getting this to the top of the agenda in Brussels . . . My one concern is what will the price be for this solidarity long term?

There has been nifty footwork by the lads in Iveagh House.

But I think it's a mistake to think of the EU doing us a massive favour, for which we have to pay. Solidarity isn't something we have to cajole out of the EU; solidarity is the whole point of the EU. The "price" we pay for this solidarity is simply being a member of the EU, with all that that entails (which includes, of course, us displaying solidarity too).

It's the failure of the Brexity Tories to grasp that that has led them onto the reefs. They think of the EU as essentially an economic transaction, and they expected economic interests to be prioritised and to prevail, and they expected diverging economic interests with respect to Brexit to cause the EU to splinter over Brexit, and to allow the German car industry to come in and deliver a sweet, sweet Brexit deal. None of this has happened, because their view of what the EU is and how it works is wholly divorced from reality.

Their case for leaving the EU was that it has become much more than a purely economic project. ("We only ever voted to join a common market!") In fact it has always been much more than an economic project. Odd, then, that Brexiters would expect the EU's response to Brexit to be driven primarily by economic considerations; their own rhetoric should have suggested that it wouldn't.

Seth Brundle

Idiot!

'C'mon Paddy, EU can leave too' - Councillor slammed for 'racist' famine tweet
A Belfast City councillor has been reported to a local Government watchdog over a "racist, sectarian and offensive" tweet.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/cmon-paddy-eu-can-leave-too-councillor-slammed-for-racist-famine-tweet-36872136.html

Christy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Idiot!

'C'mon Paddy, EU can leave too' - Councillor slammed for 'racist' famine tweet
A Belfast City councillor has been reported to a local Government watchdog over a "racist, sectarian and offensive" tweet.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/cmon-paddy-eu-can-leave-too-councillor-slammed-for-racist-famine-tweet-36872136.html

In case people were in doubt with how some in the UK would see us if we copied the UK's move here...

Leonard Hofstadter

Interestingly though, Labour have done rather worse than most expected, and similarly the Tories have had a rather better night than was expected - basically the Tories are getting ex-Ukip votes (which did not happen in the general election - most ex-Ukip voters went back to Labour).

It just does beg the question about how much Jezza is holding the Labour party back. When you think of all the scandals, such as Windrush, Grenfall, the shocking handling of the Brexit negotiations, and so on, it's really quite remarkable how well the Tories are still polling. Of course Labour has problems of its own with antisemitism.

The Lib Dems have picked up some votes as well, but still lag well behind the other two parties.

I suppose from a Remainer point of view Labour is only offering a synthetic alternative to what the Tories are offering - yes the customs union is a significant improvement, and the tone towards Europe is much better, but overall there really isn't that much of a difference between them and the Tories.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elections-live-updates-polling-voters-labour-corbyn-london-gains-council-tory-theresa-may-a8334006.html

LuckyLloyd

Bottom line is Labour have done better than last time out. The Council reporting has a 'Labour / Conservatives win / lose individual council X' bent to it. The actual percentages, numbers and trends on a comparative basis to the last election are what is relevant imo.

Thargor

Rjd2 wrote: »

Labour are not polling that awfully to be fair. They are ahead in some polls and not far behind in others.

I think May just looked at the polls before last election and thought Corbyn was there to be smashed. More MPS and Brexit would be less hassle. David Davis was meant to be one of the main people pushing her for it.

However they did not factor in the polls May was dominating in were very soft as she had never been tested with the public. Once Theresa went on the election road she was a disaster. You had Spectator and Telegraph journalists mocking her and they were right to ffs.

The terror attacks were interesting in that they did not really do the right wing party any favours. Reasons?

Jez to his credit touched on a lot of things, e,g the stupid war in Iraq was always going to lead to horrific attacks in Europe and to his credit he had opposed it. He also was able to punish the tories on police cuts also. The Iraq war in 2016 wasn't just considered a huge act of folly by left, many on the right loathed it. Then of course there was the disgusting relationship The Tories have with the savage Saudis which also got more exposure after the attacks something the Tories did not want.

Jez was also to able to play both sides, leavers did not feel threatened that he would impact Brexit while remainers voted for him as there saviour hoping he would over turn it.:P

Jez no matter what you think of him played an absolute blinder.

I do think he will win the next election also, only way he doesn't if The Tories pick Davidson who would hammer from the centre. However if The Tories run to the right of the party God help them.

The Dementia Tax was what killed them, they'll never dare go near pensioners again.

ancapailldorcha

Rjd2 wrote: »

Jez to his credit touched on a lot of things, e,g the stupid war in Iraq was always going to lead to horrific attacks in Europe and to his credit he had opposed it. He also was able to punish the tories on police cuts also. The Iraq war in 2016 wasn't just considered a huge act of folly by left, many on the right loathed it. Then of course there was the disgusting relationship The Tories have with the savage Saudis which also got more exposure after the attacks something the Tories did not want.

Jez was also to able to play both sides, leavers did not feel threatened that he would impact Brexit while remainers voted for him as there saviour hoping he would over turn it.:P

Jez no matter what you think of him played an absolute blinder.

I do think he will win the next election also, only way he doesn't if The Tories pick Davidson who would hammer from the centre. However if The Tories run to the right of the party God help them.

The Yemen situation came up on a recent episode of Question Time briefly before David Dimbley shrewdly and skilfully shut it down.

Corbyn performed admirably in the debates, such as they were. The problem is that many moderate voters feel like they can't vote for him. Moderate remainers have consigned themselves to Brexit and many voted for the Conservatives.

Thargor wrote: »

The Dementia Tax was what killed them, they'll never dare go near pensioners again.

Yes and no. The way the policy was presented was appalling which is no surprise considering that it was never more than a half-baked idea. The entire manifesto was penned by Ben Gumner and Nick Timothy in isolation. There was little thought put into it which is a shame because, in an ageing society the elderly need to start paying their way, especially when you consider the stripping of free services for youngsters while the winter heating allowances, the triple lock and free bus passes remain. Something needs to change here.

Seth Brundle

May told Border problem could delay Brexit by up to five years

Britain will be unable to leave the European customs union before 2023 ministers have been told, meaning the delay could be exploited by Remainers to thwart Brexit.

In a briefing to the British Cabinet's Brexit sub-committee earlier this week, senior civil servants said highly complex new technology which will be needed to operate Britain's borders after Brexit may not be ready for another five years.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has asked officials to carry out more work on the two options being considered by the Government to replace the customs union: a customs partnership and a so-called "maximum facilitation" plan.

The disclosure was made despite claims yesterday by David Davis, the Brexit minister, who told MPs he was "100 per cent" sure Britain will have left the customs union by the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020.

Peddling the same crap ("highly complex new technology") but over a longer timeline now!

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

May told Border problem could delay Brexit by up to five years

Peddling the same crap ("highly complex new technology") but over a longer timeline now!

Wasn't there a report out recently that said that the UK hasn't even started to invest in this new technology (if it even exists).

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wasn't there a report out recently that said that the UK hasn't even started to invest in this new technology (if it even exists).

They said the number of companies that the Government had even contacted about possible technologies was nil. Zero. None at all.

They are literally making it up as they go along.

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They said the number of companies that the Government had even contacted about possible technologies was nil. Zero. None at all.

They are literally making it up as they go along.

I read an estimate somewhere and they said 2022 was the soonest this sort of thing could be deployed.

Hurrache

It's all a guess because they don't even know what the technology to be deployed is, therefore they can't give an estimated date as to when it will be deployed.

Zubeneschamali

Here is that report

Brexit Secretary David Davis has repeatedly claimed that a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic can be avoided using new technology. Just last month, Mr Davis stated that “a whole load of new technology” exists to prevent the need for physical checks and controls at the border.

But in response to a freedom of information request submitted by i, officials at the Department for Exiting the European Union admitted the number of companies it had spoken to about such technology was “nil”.

flatty

Thargor wrote: »

Rjd2 wrote: »

Labour are not polling that awfully to be fair. They are ahead in some polls and not far behind in others.

I think May just looked at the polls before last election and thought Corbyn was there to be smashed. More MPS and Brexit would be less hassle. David Davis was meant to be one of the main people pushing her for it.

However they did not factor in the polls May was dominating in were very soft as she had never been tested with the public. Once Theresa went on the election road she was a disaster. You had Spectator and Telegraph journalists mocking her and they were right to ffs.

The terror attacks were interesting in that they did not really do the right wing party any favours. Reasons?

Jez to his credit touched on a lot of things, e,g the stupid war in Iraq was always going to lead to horrific attacks in Europe and to his credit he had opposed it. He also was able to punish the tories on police cuts also. The Iraq war in 2016 wasn't just considered a huge act of folly by left, many on the right loathed it. Then of course there was the disgusting relationship The Tories have with the savage Saudis which also got more exposure after the attacks something the Tories did not want.

Jez was also to able to play both sides, leavers did not feel threatened that he would impact Brexit while remainers voted for him as there saviour hoping he would over turn it.:P

Jez no matter what you think of him played an absolute blinder.

I do think he will win the next election also, only way he doesn't if The Tories pick Davidson who would hammer from the centre. However if The Tories run to the right of the party God help them.

The Dementia Tax was what killed them, they'll never dare go near pensioners again.

Even though it was correct.
Pensioners are approaching a wall. They cannot expect the youth to continue to pay their pensions, fuel allowances and ever increasing hospital and care bills, whilst refusing to countenance selling the homes that those younger workers couldn't dream if affording. Its morally wrong.
The very fact that this was labelled as a dementia tax shows that the tories lost control of the narrative, not that it was a bad bill in theory.
Anyhow, fear of corbyn is the only thing holding the tory vote up. Most people I talk to revile the tories, and despise may, but would vote for anyone bar corbyn.
The lib dems fail as people consider it as a wasted vote in the parliamentary elections by and large. The media did for them good and proper.

Thargor

Oh yeah I'd tax the living sh1t out of pensioners if I had my way, the lost decade we went through didn't cost them a cent, it's just a critical election in the middle of the Brexit debate wasn't the best time to make a move in that direction.

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wasn't there a report out recently that said that the UK hasn't even started to invest in this new technology (if it even exists).

The UK government hasn't even made contact with IT companies or put out any kind of tender or even begin to discuss the technical requirements with the Irish government and the EU.

All they've done to-date is waffle.

You'd need to -

1. Have a political debate to set out exactly what you intended to do with the border.
2. Consult and agree with the Irish Government and the EU as it concerns Irish and EU borders.
3. Design a full specification for what you are trying to do legally.
4. Put legislative framework in place - this would likely take a long time as it's controversial.
5. Create a technical specification to invite IT providers to tender.
6. Complete tender.
7. IT company would design system. You'd need to consult with all relevant agencies and ensure integration at this stage too.
8. System would likely need to be tested on small scale to workout bugs.
9. Build system.
10. Establish agency to manage system.
11. Recruit staff needed to do this.
12. Ensure a budget is in place to pay for ongoing costs of maintaining systems, software, paying for software licences, and pay all the staff.

It's not just a case of going to Amazon.co.uk and ordering a border security system.

They pretty clearly don't have a bull's notion what they're doing or what's involved. It's as bonkers as some of the stuff Trump comes out with.

I would say implementing a system like that could easily take 10 years and cost several billion.

After all that it may not even achieve what it was assumed it could do.

An Ciarraioch

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Idiot!


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/cmon-paddy-eu-can-leave-too-councillor-slammed-for-racist-famine-tweet-36872136.html

When you're so extreme that even Jim Allister has to expel you!

Rjd2

captainspeed wrote: »

Interestingly though, Labour have done rather worse than most expected, and similarly the Tories have had a rather better night than was expected - basically the Tories are getting ex-Ukip votes (which did not happen in the general election - most ex-Ukip voters went back to Labour).

It just does beg the question about how much Jezza is holding the Labour party back. When you think of all the scandals, such as Windrush, Grenfall, the shocking handling of the Brexit negotiations, and so on, it's really quite remarkable how well the Tories are still polling. Of course Labour has problems of its own with antisemitism.

The Lib Dems have picked up some votes as well, but still lag well behind the other two parties.

I suppose from a Remainer point of view Labour is only offering a synthetic alternative to what the Tories are offering - yes the customs union is a significant improvement, and the tone towards Europe is much better, but overall there really isn't that much of a difference between them and the Tories.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elections-live-updates-polling-voters-labour-corbyn-london-gains-council-tory-theresa-may-a8334006.html

Lot of people don't trust Corbyn with Brexit. To be fair the vast majority of Labour voters voted Remain so they can't be blamed for looking at Jez and been concerned. The fact is backbench Tory remainers such as Anna Soubry have offered more resistance to Brexit than Corbyn as of this minute.

The antisemitism issue is obviously something that hurt as it was a reminder how unpleasant some of the Corbyn whitewalkers can be when supreme leader is questioned. I do believe the vast majority of Labour supporters are good people, but there is a vocal minority who are toxic to that brand.

Overall though Labour did not do that bad last night, just made the mistake of aiming to high.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Yemen situation came up on a recent episode of Question Time briefly before David Dimbley shrewdly and skilfully shut it down.

Corbyn performed admirably in the debates, such as they were. The problem is that many moderate voters feel like they can't vote for him. Moderate remainers have consigned themselves to Brexit and many voted for the Conservatives.



Yes and no. The way the policy was presented was appalling which is no surprise considering that it was never more than a half-baked idea. The entire manifesto was penned by Ben Gumner and Nick Timothy in isolation. There was little thought put into it which is a shame because, in an ageing society the elderly need to start paying their way, especially when you consider the stripping of free services for youngsters while the winter heating allowances, the triple lock and free bus passes remain. Something needs to change here.

The "dementia tax" wasn't a bad idea as ultimately May figured they needed to re-distribute wealth and realised the Tories over reliance on pensioners need to be addressed. However the roll out was awful, and due to the backlash they will do what Corbyn is supposedly the anti christ for.

Bribing there biggest base, who would have thought it? Pensioners like there freebies also:D

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

7. IT company would design system.

Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

Leroy42

EdgeCase wrote: »

The UK government hasn't even made contact with IT companies or put out any kind of tender or even begin to discuss the technical requirements with the Irish government and the EU.

All they've done to-date is waffle.

You'd need to -

1. Have a political debate to set out exactly what you intended to do with the border.
2. Consult and agree with the Irish Government and the EU as it concerns Irish and EU borders.
3. Design a full specification for what you are trying to do legally.
4. Put legislative framework in place - this would likely take a long time as it's controversial.
5. Create a technical specification to invite IT providers to tender.
6. Complete tender.
7. IT company would design system. You'd need to consult with all relevant agencies and ensure integration at this stage too.
8. System would likely need to be tested on small scale to workout bugs.
9. Build system.
10. Establish agency to manage system.
11. Recruit staff needed to do this.
12. Ensure a budget is in place to pay for ongoing costs of maintaining systems, software, paying for software licences, and pay all the staff.

It's not just a case of going to Amazon.co.uk and ordering a border security system.

They pretty clearly don't have a bull's notion what they're doing or what's involved. It's as bonkers as some of the stuff Trump comes out with.

I would say implementing a system like that could easily take 10 years and cost several billion.

After all that it may not even achieve what it was assumed it could do.

This is the bit I don't get.

I'm not in IT, but know enough of IT projects, and projects in general to know the significant hurdles that they all face. This is an IT project on a massive scale, probably unprecedented as other borders systems would have evolved over time rather than be set up from scratch.

It also, as you pointed out, needs buy in from the EU

Given all the easily identifiable potential issues, why are the UK government continuing down this road? Politicians, by the very nature of the game, need to avoid making promises, certainly promises that may be open to not being achievable. In this case they seem to be going out of their way to make promises on things they know cannot possibly be delivered.

An Ciarraioch

Looks like the UK could be in the Customs Union (and possibly Single Market) long after the official transition period:

https://www.politico.eu/pro/brexit-customs-cabinet-theresa-mays-next-problem/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=89bebe6ce9-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_05_04&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-89bebe6ce9-189865705

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, there was a 3% swing from the DUP to the UUP last night in West Tyrone, though a contest in a more unionist constituency may be required before drawing any firm conclusions.