Brexit discussion thread III

An Ciarraioch

EU to discuss beginning free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand tomorrow:

https://mobile.twitter.com/StevePeers/status/993121190519635973

listermint

Is there any other EU country that doesn't enforce EU style reg plates? Or was that another blase subvention the UK got , usual special case need to be different?

Strazdas

EdgeCase wrote: »

Revisionist history at its finest, considering "Britian" as a political entity didn't even exist for much of that 1000 years.

Yes indeed, the political entity known as Great Britain didn't even come into existence until 1707.

J Mysterio

Bigus wrote: »

It's all our fault now and not just Brexit,

Ireland has ‘undermined Britain for over 100 years’

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-undermined-britain-for-over-100-years-1.3486305

Unbelievable. The absolute cheek of them.

murphaph

listermint wrote: »

Is there any other EU country that doesn't enforce EU style reg plates? Or was that another blase subvention the UK got , usual special case need to be different?

Danish plates are often missing the EU bit.

Roanmore

https://twitter.com/missusvee/status/993111287319203840?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email&iid=c740bd68a1de435cb5453a46b060c336&uid=1594117201&nid=244+272699400

Royal Yachting Association and British Association of Snowsport Instructors are worried that the jobs young British people were taking in foreign countries will now be taken by Foreign Nationals.

You couldn't make it up.:rolleyes:

Reminds me of the British ex pat community in Spain voting for Brexit as there was too many foreigners in the UK.

EdgeCase

I don't really see why they should protect them. It's a load of nonsense.
This is what they voted for.

One the one hand they're incredibly anti-Polish plumbers and Romanian builders, but then they're quite happy to have their own little darlings take up seasonal jobs that would otherwise go to EU nationals and probably locals in France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Spain, etc etc.

I mean, why exactly should you or I have to compete with a UK person for an EU job after Brexit, if they're going to close the door to EU nationals for jobs in the UK.

Their 'expat exceptionalism' really takes the biscuit (or is it the cake.)

An Ciarraioch

The Tory backlash against JRM has begun:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/993473612345761792

Econ_

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Tory backlash against JRM has begun:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/993473612345761792

When he says 'well beyond the mutineers' he touches on the point I've been trying to make here.

The government was defeated on an important vote before Christmas as 12 Tories rebelled against them (the Telegraph called them the 'mutineers'). There are now numerous Tories on top of those 12 that have voiced their opposition to a hard Brexit.

This is significant as there are numerous votes in parliament coming down the line which can effectively force the government to pursue a softer course. (One of the votes would effectively end the chances of a no deal scenario)

The bottom line is that there is no majority in the UK parliament to push through a hard Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

More Brexit job cuts.

In order to save money at the Dept for International Trade they are letting go up to 10% of trade promotional jobs.


Also 29,000 kidney dialysis patients won't be able to go on holidays anymore if the EHIC card goes.


Small and medium German firms say Brexit makes British market less attractive than Middle East, North Africa

Peregrinus

listermint wrote: »

Is there any other EU country that doesn't enforce EU style reg plates? Or was that another blase subvention the UK got , usual special case need to be different?

The europlates are optional in the UK, Denmark and Finland.

Plus, even where the europlate is used, it doesn't have to feature the EU flag; member states may permit the use a national or subnational flag, and national or subnational codes - ENG, SCO, GB, etc. I think the UK is the only member state to take advantage of this, but a number of current member states had adopted europlates with local variations before accession, and many of those plates are still in circulation - e.g Croatian europlates with Croatian rather than EU emblems.

Peregrinus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Paisley is obviously trolling, but aside from the glaring annual subvention paid to NI, the economic value of Irish resources appropriated by England and later the UK for centuries would far exceed the converse:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/993239156527714307

Never mind the economic value of the resources; just looking at tax revenues alone, until shortly before independence UK tax revenues collected in Ireland substantially exceeded UK government expenditure in Ireland. Ireland was a net contributor to the UK exchequer.

So Paisley is talking b@ll@cks. Still, we'd expect no less.

Leroy42

Boris has come out and basically called TM 's plan for a customs partnership as totally crazy.

Now, without getting into the debate about whether he has a point of not, wasn't this part of the cabinet discussion of last week of which the outcome was that more work needs to be done urgently?

How can a cabinet minister, collective responsibility and all, come out with statements like that so shortly after the meeting and before the government has come to a position (and that itself is a farce but a point for another post).

May has her own back benchers openly calling her out and questioning her authority, and even within her own cabinet she cannot get any control.

If the thinking is that it is better to have Boris within that without, then why not bring JRM in as well?

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris has come out and basically called TM 's plan for a customs partnership as totally crazy.

Now, without getting into the debate about whether he has a point of not, wasn't this part of the cabinet discussion of last week of which the outcome was that more work needs to be done urgently? . . .

Not only that; Boris signed off last August on the UK Position Paper which presented the Customs Partnership as "the Government's aspirations for the UK's future customs arrangements".

I think he may be trying to be fired. He sees that Brexit is inexorably going pear-shaped, and when that happens he wants to be able to distance himself from it.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Never mind the economic value of the resources; just looking at tax revenues alone, until shortly before independence UK tax revenues collected in Ireland substantially exceeded UK government expenditure in Ireland. Ireland was a net contributor to the UK exchequer.

So Paisley is talking b@ll@cks. Still, we'd expect no less.

It's the Default Unionist Party, when all else fails troll and denigrate. They have run out of steam and are getting slowly backed up against a wall of their own making.
Expect more of this.

flatty

If may had any track record for shrewdness, I'd suggest she may have hatched this plan with Boris, she can "fire" him, look strong, and appease remainders for a few more days.
I doubt this is the case.
She seems bereft of anything bar a grim determination to cling to power.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris has come out and basically called TM 's plan for a customs partnership as totally crazy.

Now, without getting into the debate about whether he has a point of not, wasn't this part of the cabinet discussion of last week of which the outcome was that more work needs to be done urgently?

How can a cabinet minister, collective responsibility and all, come out with statements like that so shortly after the meeting and before the government has come to a position (and that itself is a farce but a point for another post).

May has her own back benchers openly calling her out and questioning her authority, and even within her own cabinet she cannot get any control.

If the thinking is that it is better to have Boris within that without, then why not bring JRM in as well?

Boris goes to war with May over her 'crazy' Brexit trade plan: Foreign Secretary warns the customs partnership would leave Britain tied to EU with 'new web of bureaucracy'


There is a link to the Boris Johnson story. I think this is just a reflection of where Cabinet is right now. In fairness to his position the customs partnership was voted down just a week or so ago. Now you have the prospect of it being repackaged under another name and getting two votes to go for it.

Either way we are still stuck in pause, the UK still haven't decided what relationship they want with the EU. No matter how loud Arlene will complain it comes down to the UK not articulating what they want and causing this impasse. I think the EU will have to visibly start the preparations for a no-deal Brexit because at the moment that is the only way this is heading. There seems to be a hard Brexit cabal that is strong enough to steer this course, in both Cabinet and in the Conservative party as well.

Water John

Either Boris is distancing himself or signalling to others to openly revolt. Leader in Waiting, would be more likely as Johnson's motive.

Piece in the Dundalk Democrat quoting Louth Gardai that 'it's nigh on impossible' to man all the border crossings (36) in the county in the event of a 'doomsday' Brexit scenario. Really shows the importance of all these logistical issues that are inevitably going to loom very large on the horizon as we count down to Brexit.

https://www.dundalkdemocrat.ie/news/home/311916/louth-gardai-in-doomsday-fear-says-chief-super-mangan.html

trellheim

Piece in the Dundalk Democrat quoting Louth Gardai that 'it's nigh on impossible' to man all the border crossings (36) in the county in the event of a 'doomsday' Brexit scenario. Really shows the importance of all these logistical issues that are inevitably going to loom very large on the horizon as we count down to Brexit.

This is why the Brits want to do this via drones and cams

partyguinness

flatty wrote: »

If may had any track record for shrewdness, I'd suggest she may have hatched this plan with Boris, she can "fire" him, look strong, and appease remainders for a few more days.
I doubt this is the case.
She seems bereft of anything bar a grim determination to cling to power.

'A conscientious civil servant'- or words to that effect is the best description of May I heard recently.

She is a bland pen pusher bereft of any sort of imagination or ideology which is why she cannot stamp her authority- she has nothing to stamp on people.

partyguinness

Enzokk wrote: »

Boris goes to war with May over her 'crazy' Brexit trade plan: Foreign Secretary warns the customs partnership would leave Britain tied to EU with 'new web of bureaucracy'


There is a link to the Boris Johnson story. I think this is just a reflection of where Cabinet is right now. In fairness to his position the customs partnership was voted down just a week or so ago. Now you have the prospect of it being repackaged under another name and getting two votes to go for it.

Either way we are still stuck in pause, the UK still haven't decided what relationship they want with the EU. No matter how loud Arlene will complain it comes down to the UK not articulating what they want and causing this impasse. I think the EU will have to visibly start the preparations for a no-deal Brexit because at the moment that is the only way this is heading. There seems to be a hard Brexit cabal that is strong enough to steer this course, in both Cabinet and in the Conservative party as well.

That's a fundamental problem with the UK position to date- the Tories are more eager to argue and fight among themselves than talk with Europe.

To do otherwise would belie their position on the EU- they have nothing. A busted flush.

Leroy42

Current position of the UK summed up nicely in the Guardian

Almost two years after the referendum, we do not know what we want, the ideas we have suggested are unacceptable not only to the EU but to half the Cabinet and a large number of MPs, and we still are not even talking about potential outcomes that are practically possible. This is a farce, but could easily turn into a tragedy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/customs-union-brexit-cabinet-partnership-uk-eu-changing-europe-a8340856.html

An Ciarraioch

Headline figures from today's Irish EU poll:

92% favour membership.

44% agree and disagree that Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.

73% want the UK to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union.

https://www.newstalk.com/Irish-people-in-favour-of-the-EU-goes-over-90-for-the-first-time

An Claidheamh

Peregrinus wrote: »

Never mind the economic value of the resources; just looking at tax revenues alone, until shortly before independence UK tax revenues collected in Ireland substantially exceeded UK government expenditure in Ireland. Ireland was a net contributor to the UK exchequer.

So Paisley is talking b@ll@cks. Still, wie'd expect no less.

All unionism has to offer nowadays is trolling from the sidelines and bragging about how much they live off welfare. Occasionally parroting the British government and jingoists.

It's a fading ideology.

They must know there is a countdown to a sea border.

I'm just fascinated as to how they'll sell it to their supporters, that they were sold out by Britain.

An Claidheamh

trellheim wrote: »

This is why the Brits want to do this via drones and cams

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

LeinsterDub

From the ridiculous to the absurd. Whatever side of the Brexit debate you’re on, presumably we can agree the UK’s exit from the EU is a big deal and should be taken seriously? In which case, the current debate about customs arrangements is simply not fit for purpose.

Neither of the alternatives that were discussed in the Brexit cabinet committee last Wednesday is practical.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/customs-union-brexit-cabinet-partnership-uk-eu-changing-europe-a8340856.html

Nothing really new here but an excellent summary of the CU situation, which doesn't even factor in Ireland if anyone is feeling a bit lost. The UK cabinet is at war with self over which on 2 non runners to present to the EU for rejection.

Else where the UK is looking at the possibility of suing sue the EU over Galileo

The Government has already started to take legal advice on whether the Government can recoup the 1.4 billion euros (£1.2 billion) it has invested in the programme since 2003 after being blocked from the most sensitive elements.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/07/gavin-williamson-reveals-work-has-started-new-3billion-british/

I imagine this going to be the first of many suits and counter suits.

partyguinness

An Claidheamh wrote: »

All unionism has to offer nowadays is trolling from the sidelines and bragging about how much they live off welfare. Occasionally parroting the British government and jingoists.

It's a fading ideology.

They must know there is a countdown to a sea border.

I'm just fascinated as to how they'll sell it to their supporters, that they were sold out by Britain.

I have heard it said before and it makes sense: Paradoxically Unionism/Orange 'traditions' would be better served in a united Ireland.

London could not care less about NI or Unionism- unrequited love. Whereas the rest of Ireland would bend over backwards to make them feel welcome (knowing us prob too much) and preserve their little quirks.

EdgeCase

In many respects the EU’s proposed compromise could put NI into the position of being both in the UK and the EU.

Economically, they could be booming with FDI. But alas the DUP only cares about flags

An Ciarraioch

Fresh Lords defeat for UK Government on an EU agency amendment:

https://mobile.twitter.com/estwebber/status/993873107210395648

The EEA amendment will probably be voted on around 7.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Fresh Lords defeat for UK Government on an EU agency amendment:

https://mobile.twitter.com/estwebber/status/993873107210395648

The EEA amendment will probably be voted on around 7.

And a defeat on the leaving date

May suffers 12th Lords defeat on EU withdrawal bill as peers vote against specifying 29 March 2019 as Brexit day
The government has suffered another defeat in the House of Lords on the EU withdrawal bill. Peers voted by 311 to 233 - a majority of 78 - in favour of the Duke of Wellington’s amendment removing the reference in the bill to exit day being 29 March 2019.

That’s the second defeat on the bill in the Lords today, and the 12th defeat since the bill started its report stage in the upper house.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/08/brexit-boris-johnson-accuses-remain-voting-cabinet-colleagues-of-reviving-project-fear-politics-live


This of course is most symbolic as they can push thru what they want later.

Gerry T

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And a defeat on the leaving date



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/08/brexit-boris-johnson-accuses-remain-voting-cabinet-colleagues-of-reviving-project-fear-politics-live


This of course is most symbolic as they can push thru what they want later.

My understanding is brexit day is a function of triggering Art50, since that's done is it not correct to say brexit day is 29/03/19 ? and the only slight possible way to change that date would be to get all 27 EU countries to agree. Even at that I'm not sure it's possible to stop Art50 once started.

flatty

Gerry T wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And a defeat on the leaving date



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/08/brexit-boris-johnson-accuses-remain-voting-cabinet-colleagues-of-reviving-project-fear-politics-live


This of course is most symbolic as they can push thru what they want later.

My understanding is brexit day is a function of triggering Art50, since that's done is it not correct to say brexit day is 29/03/19 ? and the only slight possible way to change that date would be to get all 27 EU countries to agree. Even at that I'm not sure it's possible to stop Art50 once started.

I think it's possible. Highly unlikely with the current rabble on both sides though.

J Mysterio

Gerry T wrote: »

My understanding is brexit day is a function of triggering Art50, since that's done is it not correct to say brexit day is 29/03/19 ? and the only slight possible way to change that date would be to get all 27 EU countries to agree. Even at that I'm not sure it's possible to stop Art50 once started.

I think the EU have said they are open to a volte face.

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Headline figures from today's Irish EU poll:

92% favour membership.

I'd love to know the reasons and logic why the 8% don't favour membership.

An Claidheamh wrote: »

I'm just fascinated as to how they'll sell it to their supporters, that they were sold out by Britain.

They won't think that way (at least not publicly). They will blame the government in the Republic for blocking them and causing any border that arises.

flutered

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not only that; Boris signed off last August on the UK Position Paper which presented the Customs Partnership as "the Government's aspirations for the UK's future customs arrangements".

I think he may be trying to be fired. He sees that Brexit is inexorably going pear-shaped, and when that happens he wants to be able to distance himself from it.

i agree with the firing bit, my guess is that he sees how mogg can work from the back benches without having to accept any responsibility for anything

Seth Brundle

Gerry T wrote: »

My understanding is brexit day is a function of triggering Art50, since that's done is it not correct to say brexit day is 29/03/19 ? and the only slight possible way to change that date would be to get all 27 EU countries to agree. Even at that I'm not sure it's possible to stop Art50 once started.

So then the EU will be blamed by the UK government for pushing through a Brexit date when the Brits arent ready! All the disasters after that will be because the nasty EU didnt allow the poor Brits more time!

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Piece in the Dundalk Democrat quoting Louth Gardai that 'it's nigh on impossible' to man all the border crossings (36) in the county in the event of a 'doomsday' Brexit scenario. Really shows the importance of all these logistical issues that are inevitably going to loom very large on the horizon as we count down to Brexit.

https://www.dundalkdemocrat.ie/news/home/311916/louth-gardai-in-doomsday-fear-says-chief-super-mangan.html

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/hard-brexit-will-create-crime-corridors-on-border-senior-garda-warn-36795817.html

most of the PSNI Border stations that existed during the Troubles were now shut and the current stations were located about ten miles back from the Border.
...

Mr Cunningham, who has 37 years experience, mainly in the Border region, pointed out that in the Monaghan district, in an area surrounded on three sides by three Northern counties, Fermanagh, Tyrone and Armagh, there were about 26 Border crossings during the Troubles.

Now there were 160 roads currently open. Some were very minor but could still be traversed

The UK used to have 27,000 military personnel on the other side too. That's a lot of wages. And with fairly full employment it would be difficult to get that many recruits again.

Leonard Hofstadter

Many people in favour of Brexit (especially the kind of people who would have voted for UKIP) will simply blame Ireland or the EU or whoever else they fancy when things start hitting the fan, it's as simple as that.

Gerry T

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So then the EU will be blamed by the UK government for pushing through a Brexit date when the Brits arent ready! All the disasters after that will be because the nasty EU didnt allow the poor Brits more time!

I'd favour the EU removed some of the special treatment for the UK if there were a request from the UK to remain. Items such as adopting the Euro, removal of their rebate on current payments, reasonable voting rights, Schengen and sure while we're at it, lets get them to change their number plates to the EU format

LeinsterDub

Gerry T wrote: »

I'd favour the EU removed some of the special treatment for the UK if there were a request from the UK to remain. Items such as adopting the Euro, removal of their rebate on current payments, reasonable voting rights, Schengen and sure while we're at it, lets get them to change their number plates to the EU format

That would be incredibly foolish and rejected by the UK out of hand. Remember the best thing for everyone is for the UK to remain. Even if they remain as they were in the pass reluctant members.

BonnieSituation

partyguinness wrote: »

I have heard it said before and it makes sense: Paradoxically Unionism/Orange 'traditions' would be better served in a united Ireland.

London could not care less about NI or Unionism- unrequited love. Whereas the rest of Ireland would bend over backwards to make them feel welcome (knowing us prob too much) and preserve their little quirks.

You know that, I know that but the issue is trying to explain that to Unionists who would rather stick their fingers in their ears than listen to logic. Look at how they're dealing with Brexit!

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd love to know the reasons and logic why the 8% don't favour membership.


They won't think that way (at least not publicly). They will blame the government in the Republic for blocking them and causing any border that arises.

I have heard what my uncle has said re our EU membership and I would wager that the 8% would be similar. I wouldn't be bothered by what they have to say.

Gerry T

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That would be incredibly foolish and rejected by the UK out of hand. Remember the best thing for everyone is for the UK to remain. Even if they remain as they were in the pass reluctant members.

I'm not so sure, I think the only way the EU can integrate further, grow and be a leading global player is if members are committed to current levels of integration and open to the prospect of possible future areas of co-operation. The way things are the UK will never be that sort of "friend".
The best we can do is let them fend for themselves for a decade or two and then re-apply, on the same level playing field as other members, this two tier system is not in the EU's best interest. It would also help the empire gain a healthy appreciation of its real position in the world, and how the EU is in it's best interest.
Failing that if they decide to remain, which I don't see happening, they I think they need to be brought off their high chair.
Your right though, if a hard brexit happens then the EU and especially Ireland will be severely affected. But I don't see a hard brexit, I think the posturing in the UK is parties re-positioning and hopefully getting accustomed to the reality of striking a deal

LeinsterDub

Gerry T wrote: »

I'm not so sure, I think the only way the EU can integrate further, grow and be a leading global player is if members are committed to current levels of integration and open to the prospect of possible future areas of co-operation.

The EU is currently a global player and to take Ireland alone we are opposed to tax harmonisation, aren't members of schengen are miles behind EU sustainability targets etc.

An Ciarraioch

EEA vote result due in 10 minutes.

Gerry T

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The EU is currently a global player and to take Ireland alone we are opposed to tax harmonisation, aren't members of schengen are miles behind EU sustainability targets etc.

The EU countries that are not in Schengen are Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Bulgaria and Romania are in the process of joining.

Yes IRL banks on low Corporation Tax for FDI investment, but in reality that won't last forever. But then our effective tax rate for corporations isn't greatly different to other EU countries when all is taken into consideration.
Taxation may move towards partial alignment across the EU, in some specific areas, but I don't think all EU countries want harmonisation anyway, there will be other areas that will arise where it will be beneficial to align, this will be easier done due to the current level of co-operation.
The EU will continue to internally negotiate with each of its member states for majority good, so there is and will be a price to pay for membership.

An Claidheamh

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd love to know the reasons and logic why the 8% don't favour membership.

Mixture of idiots who read British newspapers, feel we should not upset them, blame Sinn Féin for everything, use the word "Paddy", don't have a problem with the anti-Irish background or irony of the Brexiteers "freedom" aspirations, possibly even very right wing or British army background, probably read the Sindo aswell - classical inferiority complex.

Then there are the anti-vaccine/any bandwagon types who blame the EU for their own lack of influence in Ireland, for things nothing to do with the EU.

Thirdly, more idiots, just xenophobes who say "Angela Merkel this" "Germany that" thinking they sound intelligent.

LeinsterDub

Gerry T wrote: »

The EU countries that are not in Schengen are Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Bulgaria and Romania are in the process of joining.

Yes IRL banks on low Corporation Tax for FDI investment, but in reality that won't last forever. But then our effective tax rate for corporations isn't greatly different to other EU countries when all is taken into consideration.
Taxation may move towards partial alignment across the EU, in some specific areas, but I don't think all EU countries want harmonisation anyway, there will be other areas that will arise where it will be beneficial to align, this will be easier done due to the current level of co-operation.
The EU will continue to internally negotiate with each of its member states for majority good, so there is and will be a price to pay for membership.

My point wasn't to discuss the nitty gritty of our EU exclusions and red lines it was to point out that every nation in the EU has exclusions and red lines. The UK is a very reluctant member but often no more reluctant than others.

Returning to the point punishing the UK if they attempted to remain with their own particular exclusions and red lines would be massively foolish and would spectacularly back fire on the EU.

An Ciarraioch

EEA amendment approved 245-218

https://mobile.twitter.com/estwebber/status/993926672083767296

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd love to know the reasons and logic why the 8% don't favour membership.

Considering there's maybe 12% here who will vote against anything as a knee jerk reaction I find it hard to believe it's as low as 8% :pac:

Until Brexit SF have been voting against the EU since before we joined the EEC back in 1973 and 8% isn't even a majority of SF support.


EDIT - the 8% is actually 7% for Irexit, 1% don't know - How often to you see 1% Don't Know in a poll like this ?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-ireland-population-majority-remain-eu-poll-border-solution-theresa-may-latest-a8340941.html