Brexit discussion thread III

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How long would a deferral of A50 (and agreement on the various milestones) take to agree?

If the UK defer A50, they remain EU members unchanged. So they have to follow thru if they want any of their proposals implemented. Essentially they are asking for an extension of the transition period

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

On a podcast (can't remember which) an example of the flights to the US. Before a plan can depart they must send the passenger info to the US. This process is pretty simply for the Carrier and the US and is well established. What happens on 1 April. The agreement with the EU no longer cover the UK. Will the US continue to accept the records, will the UK have the legislation necessary to allow them to send the information? It is pretty easy to fix and overcome, but the point raised was had anybody even thought about it? Maybe it will only take 5 minutes to fix, but then you need that 5 minutes multiplied by a seemingly endless list of other small things.

Yes; UK was trying to get USA to accept that UK should be allowed to continue the EU deal and US said heck no! US sees a change to get better terms and conditions than what they got with the EU on the topic.

British and American negotiators met secretly in January for the first formal talks on a new air services deal, aiming to fill the gap created when Britain falls out of the EU-US open skies treaty after Brexit, say people familiar with talks.

The talks were cut short after US negotiators offered only a standard bilateral agreement. These typically require airlines to be majority owned and controlled by parties from their country of origin.

British negotiators are hopeful the ownership issues can be addressed through a side agreement or memorandum of understanding giving airlines solid legal rights. But so far the US side has not gone beyond offering temporary “waivers”, on a case-by-case basis to airlines.

I would not be surprised if they don't bundle this deal into a FT agreement to show how great things are going for the UK in the new brave world to hide away the concessions given up.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

There will be a price to pay for this. The EU will expect to get financial contributions, plus they may insist on the rights for EU citizens, jurisdiction of ECJ, plus freedom of movement, etc. etc.

The 'No Border on The Island of Ireland' appears to be accepted by the UK Gov. This implies that NI remains within the SM and therefore a border with the rest of the UK on the Irish Sea.

But the EU could just as easily say "Stay fully in the Single Market and Customs Union if you're not ready to leave". This business of quitting the Single Market and Customs Union for purely political reasons is a Theresa May / hard Brexiteer red line and nothing to do with the EU. They don't have to play ball at all here and accommodate the hard Brexiteers in any way.

cml387

I would suspect the EU will outwardly reluctantly but secretly be quite happy to agree to a longer transition period. It benefits nobody to rub British noses in the mess they've made. It certainly suits us.

LeinsterDub

cml387 wrote: »

I would suspect the EU will outwardly reluctantly but secretly be quite happy to agree to a longer transition period. It benefits nobody to rub British noses in the mess they've made. It certainly suits us.

There will of course be a charge for staying. Will May be able to swing that with her party?

LuckyLloyd

cml387 wrote: »

I would suspect the EU will outwardly reluctantly but secretly be quite happy to agree to a longer transition period. It benefits nobody to rub British noses in the mess they've made. It certainly suits us.

I disagree, and not because of anything to do with 'rubbing their noses in it'. Just think they will want to have the UK exit and remove any uncertainty around the EU project. The concept of a transition period is a concession to Britain, and one that has not yet been signed off and set in stone.

J Mysterio

UK are finally starting to realise their catalogue of demands aren't going to get them anywhere. There has always been a strong imbalance of power in this negotiation in favour of the EU, they have just been to blind by arrogance to realise it. The British - used to being in a position of strength in global diplomacy - are really deflated now as they finally realise their real position in the world.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK are finally starting to realise their catalogue of demands aren't going to get them anywhere. There has always been a strong imbalance of power in this negotiation in favour of the EU, they have just been to blind by arrogance to realise it. The British - used to being in a position of strength in global diplomacy - are really deflated now as they finally realise their real position in the world.

The have been used to being part of a union - deals being made at the last minute to keep everyone relatively happy. They didn't recognise it and assumed it was just a continuation of their perceived importance.
What they are experiencing now is being outside the union where a deal is desirable but it doesn't have to be made and it doesn't have to be at any cost.

flatty

Deleted User wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK are finally starting to realise their catalogue of demands aren't going to get them anywhere. There has always been a strong imbalance of power in this negotiation in favour of the EU, they have just been to blind by arrogance to realise it. The British - used to being in a position of strength in global diplomacy - are really deflated now as they finally realise their real position in the world.

The have been used to being part of a union - deals being made at the last minute to keep everyone relatively happy. They didn't recognise it and assumed it was just a continuation of their perceived importance.
What they are experiencing now is being outside the union where a deal is desirable but it doesn't have to be made and it doesn't have to be at any cost.

I'd say this is about right.

20silkcut

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK are finally starting to realise their catalogue of demands aren't going to get them anywhere. There has always been a strong imbalance of power in this negotiation in favour of the EU, they have just been to blind by arrogance to realise it. The British - used to being in a position of strength in global diplomacy - are really deflated now as they finally realise their real position in the world.

The suez crisis of 1956 showed in no uncertain terms where Britain stood as a world power. Here we are 60 years later and a sort of echo generation of arrogant British politicians has emerged hell bent on recreating the 19th century.
Their proposals while long term would probably lead to prosperity the absolute disastrous consequences for many in Britain and the EU of them getting to their splendid isolation Victorian utopia are not worth it.

Strazdas

cml387 wrote: »

I would suspect the EU will outwardly reluctantly but secretly be quite happy to agree to a longer transition period. It benefits nobody to rub British noses in the mess they've made. It certainly suits us.

Transition to what though? There is no legal clarity here at all, just some vague talk of extending the transition period beyond the end of the current deadline. This is no solution to the border issue or anything else.

Leroy42

20silkcut wrote: »

The suez crisis of 1956 showed in no uncertain terms where Britain stood as a world power. Here we are 60 years later and a sort of echo generation of arrogant British politicians has emerged hell bent on recreating the 19th century.
Their proposals while long term would probably lead to prosperity the absolute disastrous consequences for many in Britain and the EU of them getting to their splendid isolation Victorian utopia are not worth it.

This is the bit that gets me. The best that Brexiteers can come up with is that there will be (according to them and based on no actual evidence it seems) long terms gains but that will require short term pain. But they have never even attempted to address how they will deal with this short term loss (nor defined what constitutes short term).

So what about all the people that might lose their jobs as the economy needs to pivot away from the EU and to the new era of international deals?

What are the government going to do, already dealing with austerity, to cope with the drop in taxes and possible increase in costs?

None of that has even been touched on

Strazdas wrote: »

Transition to what though? There is no legal clarity here at all, just some vague talk of extending the transition period beyond the end of the current deadline. This is no solution to the border issue or anything else.

The solution is that nothing changes in all important respects. TM will continue to go on about leaving and having left and a brave new world, but whilst they make call it being out they won't be.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the bit that gets me. The best that Brexiteers can come up with is that there will be (according to them and based on no actual evidence it seems) long terms gains but that will require short term pain. But they have never even attempted to address how they will deal with this short term loss (nor defined what constitutes short term).

So what about all the people that might lose their jobs as the economy needs to pivot away from the EU and to the new era of international deals?

What are the government going to do, already dealing with austerity, to cope with the drop in taxes and possible increase in costs?

None of that has even been touched on



The solution is that nothing changes in all important respects. TM will continue to go on about leaving and having left and a brave new world, but whilst they make call it being out they won't be.

The only evidence is that free trade is a proven prosperity generator.
But Brexit would be the 21st century equivalent of corn law repeal.
Huge swathes of the British economy would be devastated.
At least in the 19th century corn law repeal just hit the land owning class and tillage farmers in particular. Brexit is much more far reaching and hits a far more educated urban class. It will not succeed.

EdgeCase

All they seem to be capable of doing is stamping their feet like a spoiled toddler and yelling 'it's so unfair' when they're confronted any kind of reality.

Despite months and months of so-called negotiations, it is still just the UK presenting absolutisms and fantasy nonsense.

I have quite honestly never seen something so unrealistic and downright stupid and it's almost like the British and some of the international media are afraid to point out that it is just that.

The only solution to this is going to be a compromise. If that's unacceptable to the UK Government and the electorate, that's just tough. As that lady who was interviewed by Channel 4 said a few months ago about Ireland, you can't always have what you want.

The choice is quite stark: make a deal, and suck it up. Or, deal with the reality of being a mid-sized country working on your own without trade deals and all of the economic shocks of disconnecting from your highly integrated common market position to one of having no direct access.

If they just continue to pretend that there's some other reality, they will just end up crashing out and getting faced with actual reality which could prove very damaging to their economy and way of life generally. They just continue to live in a fantasy that is being egged on by an illogical, jingoistic and europhobic / xenophobic press and political bubble.

Nobody's saying they don't have the right to take democratic decisions about their status. However, just because you voted for something does not mean that it can happen with out real world consequences.

J Mysterio

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the bit that gets me. The best that Brexiteers can come up with is that there will be (according to them and based on no actual evidence it seems) long terms gains but that will require short term pain. But they have never even attempted to address how they will deal with this short term loss (nor defined what constitutes short term).

So what about all the people that might lose their jobs as the economy needs to pivot away from the EU and to the new era of international deals?

What are the government going to do, already dealing with austerity, to cope with the drop in taxes and possible increase in costs?

None of that has even been touched on



The solution is that nothing changes in all important respects. TM will continue to go on about leaving and having left and a brave new world, but whilst they make call it being out they won't be.

They also have not really admitted there will be pain, short term or otherwise. There will be serious economic and societal issues due to Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

May press conference:

UK to leave customs union in 2020 and have independent trade policy from that date. UK will also publish own "fallback position on Irish border":

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/17/brexit-may-denies-u-turn-amid-reports-uk-could-effectively-stay-in-customs-union-after-transition-politics-live

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

May press conference:

UK to leave customs union in 2020 and have independent trade policy from that date. UK will also publish own "fallback position on Irish border":

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/17/brexit-may-denies-u-turn-amid-reports-uk-could-effectively-stay-in-customs-union-after-transition-politics-live

Own fallback position? As in, not the one they actually agreed to?

Well that's an interesting way of squaring the circle.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/17/brexit-may-denies-u-turn-amid-reports-uk-could-effectively-stay-in-customs-union-after-transition-politics-live[url][/url]

Linked.

May is slippery as an eel. Untrustworthy and duplicitous.

"We are working on what our future customs relationship with the European Union will be. In December, when the joint report was published between the European Union and the United Kingdom, we set out clearly options in relation to the commitment that we have given for no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. We expect that to be dealt through the overall relationship we have with the European Union. But there were then two further levels of option, including the final fallback option.

"The commission then published a fallback option which was not acceptable to to us. And we will be bringing forward our own proposal for that fallback option in due course."

LeinsterDub

Anthracite wrote: »

Own fallback position? As in, not the one they actually agreed to?

Well that's an interesting way of squaring the circle.

No point continuing on with this sham till June. All good faith and trust has been lost.

J Mysterio

Independent UK running with this headline:

"Theresa May to propose 'backstop' plan for customs if no deal can be reached

The prime minister has said the EU's current proposed fallback option is 'unacceptable'.

Seems maybe ol' May is trying to use the Irish issue ('the backstop') as a bargaining chip, as it was said she always would seek to do.

Shame this was anticipated and thus the UK were made to agree a solution before progressing negotiations. For May to (a) announce 'no PM could ever accept this', (b) claim this was written by the EU after the fact and, (c) suggest she will now propose a solution acceptable to her is the height of bad faith.

I expect this to be roundly rejected by the both Ireland and the EU, but for Brexiteers to focus their denouncement on Ireland.

The UK and the US seem to have lost their minds in terms of their governance, national mood and foreign policy. Well, the EU are being defiant now. Tusk said yesterday as regards Trump, 'who needs enemies when you have friends like this' while Macron and Merkel today said they will not negotiate trade with the US while the sword of Damocles hangs over them. Tusk said that Europe will have to rely on themselves now as the US cannot be relied upon with such a 'capricous administration'. The same is true of the UK.

I think the EU will give this move by May short shrift. Ireland and the EU will stand steadfast by the December agreement as they essentially achieved all their aims in the negotiations at this stage. The UK being intransigent like this will result in a hard Brexit, no doubt.

J Mysterio

Ireland’s prime minister has raised the spectre of a ‘no deal’ in Brexit talks, warning that Britain has yet to propose anything that “remotely approaches” a “workable and legally operable” solution to the Irish border issue.

Leo Varadkar said if no “substantial” progress was made ahead of a Brussels summit next month there might be no withdrawal agreement, with Britain crashing out on WTO terms.

“We stand by the text of the Withdrawal Agreement and the text of the protocol published in March as does the task force and the 27 member states that are behind us.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-eu-no-deal-ireland-leo-varadkar-trade-talks-a8355591.html

Gerry T

I hate to say but this could be the finish to negotiations. If you can't trust the person your dealing with there's just no point. If they agree one day and then pretend that was just your opinion, and they have their position statement coming.best response would be there's an agreed fall back, what's your solution to NI, you don't have one, come back to us when you do otherwise we have nothing to discuss.

J Mysterio

May is trying to have the cake.

The thing is that the backstop keeps NI in the Customs Union and not UK. May is trying to say, 'no, the UK can't be divided, so it has to be all of the UK in the Customs Union as a backstop', to avoid the hard border.

And of course, as the UK are selflessly staying against their will in the CU to avoid the hard border, that 'concession' should then pave way for them to be allowed conduct their own trade policy and control immigration.

Well, no. They have already lost that argument. Everyone else has moved on and are waiting for progress and real solutions, while the UK still dont know what they want and are grappling with the December agreement when it is May and they need to prepare for the October agreement.

This is going very badly indeed.

flatty

J Mysterio wrote: »

May is trying to have the cake.

The thing is that the backstop keeps NI in the Customs Union and not UK. May is trying to say, 'no, the UK can't be divided, so it has to be all of the UK in the Customs Union as a backstop', to avoid the hard border.

And of course, as the UK are selflessly staying against their will in the CU to avoid the hard border, that 'concession' should then pave way for them to be allowed conduct their own trade policy and control immigration.

Well, no. They have already lost that argument. Everyone else has moved on and are waiting for progress and real solutions, while the UK still dont know what they want and are grappling with the December agreement when it is May and they need to prepare for the October agreement.

This is going very badly indeed.

If I read a cake phrase again I'll scream.
I can't abide may, but most reputable sources seem to suggest she is lining up to draw out the transitional phase, maybe indefinitely, maybe not, but in fairness, she is trying to hold a cabinet together. She has made mistake after mistake, but I think you are being slightly harsh. She is teetering in a very wire here. The hard brexiteers are slowly being exposed, and the mood music is changing subtly but surely. She might just pull it off, if that is her aim. There will be a deal, I am confident of that for the first time.
Maybe I'm being wilfully blind.

Leroy42

Its all her own doing though. Don't make her out to some put upon damsel in distress, pluckily shouldering the burden and carrying it all with a quiet stoicism.

She triggered A50. She laid down the red lines. She signed up to the December agreement. She has been trying to be on all sides and failing on everyone of them.

Her cowardness has caused this mess to drag on and on. Hell, she couldn't even bring herself to campaign properly in the ref and ran away from meeting voters during the election.

An Ciarraioch

Brand new Tony Connelly article suggests that the Taoiseach is now emphasising the importance of SM alignment:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/964206/?__twitter_impression=true

J Mysterio

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its all her own doing though. Don't make her out to some put upon damsel in distress, pluckily shouldering the burden and carrying it all with a quiet stoicism.

She triggered A50. She laid down the red lines. She signed up to the December agreement. She has been trying to be on all sides and failing on everyone of them.

Her cowardness has caused this mess to drag on and on. Hell, she couldn't even bring herself to campaign properly in the ref and ran away from meeting voters during the election.

Exactly. She is the leader of the Tories and the Prime Minister of the UK. She has allowed this situation to develop and snowball, by making decisions and not making decisions. She has been afraid to make any tough calls and has failed to control her cabinet and her party. She should be condemned in my opinion.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brand new Tony Connelly article suggests that the Taoiseach is now emphasising the importance of SM alignment:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/964206/?__twitter_impression=true

Add tags around the links for better linkage! But thanks.

Anthracite

The big story on the BBC's UK politics site is Neil Hamilton losing the leadership of 7 members of the Welsh Assembly.

May's pointing a gun to her own head is down below it somewhere.

An Ciarraioch

Curiouser and curiouser - Channel 4 claiming "liberal unionists" have been visiting Dublin to discuss the future shape of a united Ireland!

https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/forty-shades-of-green-fifty-shades-of-orange

We are going to be the bit that gives imo.

There is a mutual exclusivity of the statements

No hard border in Ireland.
UK outside Single Market AND Customs Union.

I fear (from both an Ireland And UK perspective) that the border will be the easier lamb to sacrifice.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its all her own doing though. Don't make her out to some put upon damsel in distress, pluckily shouldering the burden and carrying it all with a quiet stoicism.

She triggered A50. She laid down the red lines. She signed up to the December agreement. She has been trying to be on all sides and failing on everyone of them.

Her cowardness has caused this mess to drag on and on. Hell, she couldn't even bring herself to campaign properly in the ref and ran away from meeting voters during the election.

Oh I don't. I have to turn off the telly when she comes on. She makes my teeth ache.

sink

Deleted User wrote: »

I fear (from both an Ireland And UK perspective) that the border will be the easier lamb to sacrifice.

I don't see any indication of that.

For one thing the minority government in Ireland is flanked only by even more nationalist parties in the Dáil. Politically it has nothing to gain and only the potential to lose support by lessening it's resistance to a hard border.

And for another the EU has nothing to gain by acceding to the UK's contortionist proposals which are only targeted at keeping the Tory party minority government afloat. It also can't be seen to hang a member state out to dry for the benefit of a non-member.

I believe one of three outcomes are becoming overwhelmingly likely and all play into Ireland's and the EU's hands in the long run. In order of likelyhood.

1. The talks collapse and the current government lasts until Brexit day crashing out on WTO terms. After a short period out in the cold (1 year max), this will lead to a collapse of the UK government with either a national coalition forming or fresh elections leading to a new government that will acquiesce to Brexit in name only (or at that point Brentry in all but name).
   
2. The talks collapse, with the UK facing impending doom Theresa May suffers a vote of no confidence in parliament and a national coalition forms around a soft brexit and the UK agrees to the backstop. With fresh elections happening after Brexit day.
   
3. Theresa May faces down her detractors in government and acquiesces to the backstop.

In all 3 scenarios Ireland and the EU win in the long run. The least likely outcome is a permanent reintroduction of border controls on this island.

The main factor driving my predictions is that the UK will suffer economic damage outside the single market and customs union and that alone will drive them towards remaining in both and keeping the border open. I believe that their Customs Partnership and Max Fac proposals are as much if not even more to do with avoiding said economic damage. They're even talking about maintaining associated membership of EU agencies for the same reason. This is all an indication to me that they don't have the balls or the belief in Brexit to risk their economy.

Nody

sink wrote: »

In all 3 scenarios Ireland and the EU win in the long run. The least likely outcome is a permanent reintroduction of border controls on this island.

Sorry to burst your bubble here but with Labour clearly stated that they are not going to remain in the CU/SM (Corbyn has pretty much the same cake version of reality as May does) who voted in do you think would suddenly switch to soft brexit or create the coalition? What party is suppose to bring UK back to EU (who'll highly unlikely to accept all exceptions of today after a crash out Brexit) and hence UK's pride will be wounded twice over (first from having to admit to go back; second from worse deal)? This is while the major newspapers will talk about the temporary pain and the glories of olden days to come if they stiffen their upper lip and ride it out like a true Brit did it during the Blitz (WW2 references sell after all). I'd not be surprised if they go even further and start referring to EU being run by the Germans (again) and how this is their revenge for WW2 or talking about France being push over for Germany's will etc. Let's be honest here it will get nastier than what we've seen to date most likely (austerity tends to increase the shrieking).

Yes day 1 there will be chaos; day 30 the worst things will be sorted out; by day 180 things will be more or less normalized for people and by the election a year+ later... Remember the Brexit effects on companies are either going to be instantaneous (i.e. company shut down due to it in the months after) but for most it will be the cut by a thousand blades death over the years to come. The new production line not introduced; accelerated automation instead and people fired to lower cost etc. Most people will not realize the real damage until many years after Brexit (and a lot of it will not be reversible).

I agree that long term that UK is likely to return in some form (EEA membership most likely at least as a starting point as this would not necessary be seen as capitulation but tactical reorganization like Dunkirk) and the borders may very well go through a United Ireland (when UK decides they are tired of paying for the stump of land) but I'd not be to quick to think the border controls will be a short one or two year affair.

listermint

I don't see how anyone can think borders would not shift moderate unionist thinking to self preservation. There is already plenty of evidence of that with some high level liberal unionists meeting with high level public officials down south.

There is no appetite for permanent borders

Leroy42

Am I understanding what the new position of May is after yesterday (I am looking for correction if wrong).

They have decided not to pursue the two options they had been looking at, namely NCP and Max Fac.

They will look to extend the transition period, currently agreed to 2020, to a as yet unknown date. The date of the end of the extended transition will be based on when the Max Fac technology is in place rather than a set date.

The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.

Is that the position now?

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Am I understanding what the new position of May is after yesterday (I am looking for correction if wrong).

They have decided not to pursue the two options they had been looking at, namely NCP and Max Fac.

They have officially not decided for now as May's favourite solution is ruled out by hard brexiteers and instead kick the can down the road by extending the time period before leaving the SM/CU basically.

They will look to extend the transition period, currently agreed to 2020, to a as yet unknown date. The date of the end of the extended transition will be based on when the Max Fac technology is in place rather than a set date.

Or what ever magical beans solution they can think up, but yes.

The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.

They agree that there is a backstop but not the wording of the current one as that is something "no prime minister can ever agree with". The goal is likely going to be to fudge the requirements to ensure some type of border is acceptable and enable a Max Fac or similar solution. Of course as so many other UK "solutions" it's unlikely to be workable or detailed enough to go under any serious consideration by the EU.

At least that's how I read it.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.

I think this is just a way for May to get around the fact that she agreed the back stop and then condemned it as unnacceptable afterwards.

She can't be seen to just buckle and accept it now, so she will bring a "different" backstop which means the same thing, and everyone will pretend she brilliantly won a tough negotiation.

This will keep her in power for another month, rather than deal with more Tory infighting.

Leroy42

On the backstop, was the position not agreed in December? My understanding is that the EU brought forward a legal text in March to formalise the December agreement and it is that interpretation that is causing the issue.

BUt what option does the UK have? The EU can simply state that the legal text is what they feel was agreed, May will contest that. But with no agreement, the UK crashes out, which May has already accepted is the worst option (otherwise they would not be looking for an extension of the extension).

So aren't they basically going into a negotiation pleading for something which is of no advantage to the EU whilst offering nothing in return. The EU may decide that a fudge is better than the UK crashing out for the EU, but against that the UK are facing a self admitted crash if the EU don't agree.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

The EU may decide that a fudge is better than the UK crashing out for the EU

Exactly. The EU won't mind handing May a "win" if the results are the same for the EU, they have openly said that they prefer to deal with May than Rees Mogg.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting Irish Times polling data on Brexit:

Q1. Is the Government doing a good job on Brexit?

Yes 39%
No 33%
DK 29%

Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue?

Yes 45%
No 42%
DK 14%

Q3. What kind of Border do you expect after Brexit?

Soft 42%
Hard 32%
DK 26%

Q4. What should the Government do if there's no progress on the Border issue?

Halt talks 40%
Continue 41%
DK 19%

I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue?

Yes 45%
No 42%
DK 14%

I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403

But the border is related to the economic/single market so any success on the border will filter down to what you would consider a success. That is why the indications were there from the beginning that there is no way to leave the EU without destroying the GFA or the Union. That is why it makes zero sense for any party in NI to back Brexit.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting Irish Times polling data on Brexit:

Q1. Is the Government doing a good job on Brexit?

Yes 39%
No 33%
DK 29%

Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue?

Yes 45%
No 42%
DK 14%

Q3. What kind of Border do you expect after Brexit?

Soft 42%
Hard 32%
DK 26%

Q4. What should the Government do if there's no progress on the Border issue?

Halt talks 40%
Continue 41%
DK 19%

I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403

Strange results, but I have to remind myself that not everyone is as obsessed with this process as I am.

LeinsterDub

J Mysterio wrote: »

Strange results, but I have to remind myself that not everyone is as obsessed with this process as I am.

Europe and Brexit are complicated. How many people do you how who are following Brexit as closely as us? Most nights it will not feature on the main evening news. Split down the middle kind of indicates the lack of in depth knowledge your average Joe has of Brexit.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Strange results, but I have to remind myself that not everyone is as obsessed with this process as I am.

Like you and LeinsterDub and us in here I constantly forget no one cares as much. But what can ya do.

Thank god for this thread.

An Ciarraioch

It seems that as part of a Tory wave of peerages to the House of Lords to halt Brexit defeats, Willie McCrea is to don the ermine:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/18/pm-set-to-nominate-10-tory-peers-in-attempt-to-overcome-brexit-defeats

Kermit.de.frog

Latest on Operation United Ireland in the Telegraph

Brussels is likely to reject Theresa May’s plan to keep Britain tied to EU customs rules beyond 2021 because it believes the backstop clause to prevent a hard Irish border can only apply to Northern Ireland and not the whole UK.

“The European commission has always understood it as applying to Northern Ireland only,” an EU source told The Telegraph, “It has always said that Northern Ireland is a unique situation”.

flatty

Oh man. I just can't believe she's doing this. If a normal person gets handed defeat after defeat by a non partisan, cross party upper house, they would look at why. Ramming it full of apparatchiks is just appalling. An absolute perversion worthy of mugabe or some other tin pot dictator. The only good thing is she clearly perceives the Lords rebellion as a genuine threat, rather than a grand symbolic gesture.
The media should be up in arms at this, but I suppose they need to wait til it goes through.

LuckyLloyd

The mask slips from time to time, reminder in today’s Telegraph on what Brexit is really about:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/18/brexit-chance-make-racist-immigration-system-genuinely-fair/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/18/bbc-poisoning-childrens-minds-pro-immigration-claptrap/

The first article is faulty logic to put it mildly. And the second, well...Farage is what he is.

An Claidheamh

This appears to have passed us by, but further proof that this guy pretending (badly) to care about Irish interests, is in fact working for the Brexiteers.

He smells of desperation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/former-irish-diplomat-calls-for-backstop-demand-to-be-dropped-1.3499448?mode=amp


Bassett (remember him) wants our government/EU to stop bullying the Brits because they won't agree to the backstop........ accept that....they will.



He's promoting a pamphlet you see.



"Dr Bassett was speaking at the launch of his pamphlet Brexit and the Border: Where Ireland’s True Interests Lie, which is published by the Politeia think tank."

- which he was launching in Britain......???


"It is being used as a threat. I have met nobody in Dublin who believes that the backstop will be implemented,” he said."

- I get the impression he's not actually talking to anybody in Dublin.

Just an attention seeker.

You'd wonder do his British audience notice this at all.